Bper Banca SpA

MIL:BPE

Q1-2025 Earnings Call

[Operator]

Good morning. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. Welcome and thank you for joining the BPER First Quarter 2025 Consolidated Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Nicola Sponghi, Head of Investor Relations of BPER. Mr. Sponghi, please go ahead.

[Nicola Sponghi, executive]

Thank you and good morning, everyone. I am pleased to welcome you to our first quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Before I give the floor to our CEO, Gianni Franco Papa, please know that our slide set and press release can be found on our corporate website. I would also advise you to take note of the disclaimer, like 2 of the presentation document.

That said, after the presentation our CEO; our CFO, Simone Marcucci; and our CRO, Emanuele Cristini will take care of the Q&A session. I will reiterate that this is reserved for financial analysts whom I will kindly request to ask a maximum of 2 questions each, so that everyone will have the opportunity to contribute to today's call. Thank you very much. I will now leave the stage to Mr. Papa, CEO of BPER.

[Gianni Giacomo Pope, executive]

Thank you, Nicola, for your introduction. Good morning to everyone and welcome to our Q1 results presentation. Before I start giving you details of our financial performance, I'm keen to highlight a number of key features of our Q1 2025 results. Underlining the progress on our B:Dynamic Full Value 2027 is well on track.

First and foremost, on an adjusted basis, Q1 2025 was our best ever quarterly result, with the bottom line standing at EUR 443 million. A mild reduction on [ AAI ], despite the acceleration of the reduction of interest rates. That said, we remain cautious, given the potential headwinds deriving from current geopolitical tensions and the spillover effect on macroeconomic conditions.

Commissions continue to have a very positive run throughout the year, given the focus on AUM, life insurance, and Bancassurance products. Quarter-on-quarter, excluding the positive impact of Bancassurance related performance fees, commission income was up by 3.1% despite adverse market conditions.

Our profitability remained high with an adjusted return on tangible equity at robust 19.2%. Despite the impact of Basel IV, mostly related to operational risk, we maintain a very solid capital position with the CET1 ratio at 15.8% resulting from an organic capital generation amounting to 97 basis points, equal to EUR 540 million in the last 3 months.

Loan volumes were positively affected by significant new loan origination of EUR 4.4 billion, a plus 22.3% on a year-on-year basis. And finally, the quality of our loan book continues to stand at the best level in the Italian banking industry, with a cost of risk of 31 basis points. In this geopolitical context, let me underline that BPER is a bank deeply rooted in Italy with a low business exposure to global markets.

In addition, we are proud to say that we are a commercial bank with a complete banking offering and a focus on asset gathering. Please be reminded that at the end of the result presentation, I will spend a couple of slides on updating you on the business combination with Banca Popolare di Sondrio.

Let's move on to the net profit drivers on Slide #5. As you can appreciate, our focus on tangible results, translated into the best quarterly net profit ever of EUR 443 million, posting a 43.2% growth year-on-year. I underline best rather than highest, as the quality of our revenues has been outstanding with almost 1% growth in core revenues year-on-year, we have been able to overcome the negative impact of lowering interest rates. I will revert to this later in the presentation.

The very high quality of our loan book translated into a level of annualized loan loss provisions well below 40 basis points. In the pages to come, we will provide you with an in-depth review of each and every item.

Let's move on to Slide #6. As already mentioned in February, please bear in mind that the following guidance is based on BPER standalone, therefore not including any impact from any business combination. For 2025, I would like to underline the following. We expect NII to be down mid-single digit. Commission income is expected to continue to post a positive performance, up mid-single digit.

The cost-to-income ratio should land at approximately 51%. We continue to maintain a strict cost discipline with an important focus on operating efficiency. We expect the cost of risk landing at slightly below 40 basis points. And finally, we are expecting a CET1 ratio well above 15%.

Now I would like to move on to the core part of the presentation on Slide 8. A quick glance at the progress on our business plan. In February, I assure you that we were on track to fully implement all of the business plan initiatives by the end of the first half of 2025. I can proudly state that by now we have launched 100% of initiatives in spite of all the efforts focused on the Banca Popolare di Sondrio potential combination.

A couple of additional highlights. Despite the current macroeconomic environment, commissions continue to register a remarkable performance, up by 8.5% year-on-year, with record results of AUM fees up by 18.7%. The enhanced services to our clients translated into new loans, growing at a pace of 22.3% year-on-year at EUR 4.4 billion.

We have worked rigorously on the progress of our digital and remote channels, enabling 90% of total transactions being processed. In addition, in Q1 2025, remote sales stand at 20% of total sales, also thanks to the digital branch announcements, and fully in line with our plan. And similarly, digital lending more than doubled with over 20% of the total amount of personal loans volumes sold digitally.

Our capital ratios remain strong despite Basel IV impact. The bank modernization is progressing rapidly. Deployed CapEx according to plan reached EUR 160 million. In Q1 2025, our ESG focus has shown further momentum with over EUR 700 million of ESG new lending, demonstrating our solid commitment to sustainability. And finally, approximately 10% of our employees have already been involved in our dedicated academies.

Let's now turn to our financial performance. As you can see on the slide, core revenues were resilient at EUR 1.4 billion, up by 0.8% year-on-year. Given the overall scenario characterized by an acceleration of the reduction of interest rates, this is a positive result. Among the main drivers of total revenues, I would highlight the following. Lower NII due to lower rates and a strong performance in commission income, thanks to the positive contribution of AUM fees, life insurance, and Bancassurance fees.

Quarter-on-quarter, core revenues were slightly down by 1.8% with commission income growing by 3.1% excluding the positive impact of Bancassurance performances fees booked in Q4 2024. In this context, I would highlight the improving quality of our revenues, where the ratio of net commission income to total revenues rose from 36.6% in Q1 '24 to 37.9% in Q1 '25. To be noted, the continued solid trend in productivity with the net revenues to risk weighted assets ratio, which increased from 8.6% to 9.7% between Q1 '23 and Q1 '25.

Let's move on to the next slide, which focuses on net interest income. Given the interest rates environment, I'm pleased about the performance of our interest rates income line. In the quarter commercial NII was stable, taking into account the effect of a reduced number of business days. The effect of rates reduction and tighter spreads was compensated by volumes. Noncommercial NII was mainly affected by lower remuneration on ECB deposits.

Finally, I would like to highlight that our NII sensitivity to 100 basis points movements equal to approximately EUR 165 million in the quarter, basically unchanged compared to the previous quarter. Looking forward, we will need to take a cautious view on NII given the acceleration in the reduction of interest rates and current geopolitical tensions which may impact loan demand, especially from corporates.

Now let's move on to the development of net commission income. Commission income grew by 8.5% year-on-year standing at above EUR 540 million, thanks to the focus the bank is placing on capital light high quality non-interest income products. The most important contributor, which represents more than 50% of commissions were fees from banking services, which almost reached EUR 275 million.

Wealth management fees increased by over 14.3% year-on-year, while fees from Bancassurance were up by 26.9%. Noteworthy to mention that AUC and AUM running fees increased by 7.1% year-on-year. In the quarter, wealth management fees contributed positively, increasing by 10.9%, while Bancassurance commissions increased by 1.3% excluding the positive impact of performance fees in Q4 '24.

We expect mid-single digit growth in the year for commissions and the positive performance in net commissions also in Q2 despite current market volatility and an important number of bank holidays in the second quarter. That said, we remain confident in achieving our target of 12% growth along the plan.

Let's move to the next slide which focuses on the progression of total financial assets. Total financial assets grew by 1.6% in the last 12 months, driven by asset under custody and asset under management. In the quarter, total financial assets came down by approximately EUR 3 billion due to customer asset dynamics in deposits and the technical effect related to institutional clients in AUC, with a negligible effect on commission income. AUMs were up by EUR 4.8 billion year-on-year at EUR 72.1 billion, mainly thanks to continued customer asset rotation.

Let's move on to our performance on the cost side. Year-on-year, total costs were down by 3.2% reaching a cost-to-income ratio of 46.7%. This highlights our strong focus on operational efficiency. The waterfall chart reports the key drivers of HR costs in the quarter.

The reduction was mainly driven by organic turnover, despite lower voluntary exits, which more than compensated the increase related to the National Collective Labor Agreement. As you can see on the slide, at the end of March, head counts stood at 19,424, a reduction of some 1,000 compared to June 2024. On the non-HR side, please note that we achieved further progress by optimizing our branch network, reducing the total counts by 78 branches and landing at 1,557 branches since Q2 2024.

Let's move to cost of risk. As you can see, in the last year, loan loss provisions came down by more than 25%, landing at EUR 71 million, bringing the cost of risk down to 31 basis points. Similarly, on a quarterly basis, the cost of risk has shown a very positive progression, falling from 63 basis points in Q1 '23 to 31 basis points in Q1 '25. Needless to say that this underlines the high quality of our portfolio.

I would like to mention a couple of other points which are deemed key in the context of the quality of our loan book. Our NPE coverage ratio remains substantially stable at 54.2% quarter-on-quarter and one of the highest among Italian peers. Our conservative approach is further confirmed as we report the Q1 '25 coverage ratio on performing loans at 0.67% among the highest in Italy. And total cumulative overlays stood at approximately EUR 228.2 million, down by almost EUR 9.9 million versus Q4 '24 due to technical reasons. We are closely monitoring the macroeconomic situation resulting from U.S. tariffs with a cautious view, and our preliminary analysis do not show material risk.

Let's move on to the asset quality on the next slide. As in the previous quarter, the quality of our loan book continues to show a very healthy state. From a stock perspective, gross NPE increased by EUR 200 million in the quarter, EUR 100 million higher year-on-year. In particular, bad loans increased by EUR 100 million due to a very limited asset disposal.

The fact that BPER is characterized by high quality loan book, it is further highlighted by the net NPE ratio, which as you can appreciate, continues to improve and is one of the lowest in the Italian banking sector at 1.2%. Having finished with asset quality, let's move on to the development of the bank's risk weighted assets.

As you can see in Q1 2025, our total risk weighted assets increased from EUR 54.2 billion to EUR 55.9 billion. The impact of Basel IV counts for EUR 1.7 billion or 49 basis points on CET1 ratio, and is mainly related to operational risk. The original impact of 70 basis points has been reduced to 49 basis points, mainly thanks to the methodological fine tunings.

I will now turn to organic capital generation on the next slide. In terms of capital, we continue to post a very strong organic capital generation reaching a CET1 ratio of 15.8% despite the Basel IV impact on operational risk. In this context, it is important to underline that BPER continues to generate significant organic capital amounting to EUR 540 million or 97 basis points in the last 3 months.

Moving on to liquidity, let me point out that the bank's liquidity ratio remain high. The LCR is equal to 166% at the end of March '25 in line with the 167% reported at end of December 2024. The NSFR is equal to 134.4% from 137.7% at the end of December '24, mainly driven by commercial funding dynamics over the quarter.

In Q1 '25, the loan to deposit ratio stood at 76.3%, stable quarter-on-quarter, one of the lowest among Italian peers, which will enable us to continue to grow the loan book through increased loan origination and to transform client liquidity into AUC and AUMs, thanks to our ability to attract customer liquidity.

Turning now to the bond portfolio. Italian government bonds amounted to EUR 13.6 billion and accounted for around 47.2% of total bonds. Noteworthy that already in Q3 '24, a tactical and selective increase in exposure to Italian government bonds had been started, mainly through the purchase of [ CCTs ] index to Euribor offering particularly attractive spreads.

As a result of an active portfolio management strategy in Q1 2025, the bond portfolio duration increased to 2.3 years, up from 2.1 years at the end of 2024. The decision to focus purchases on Italian government bonds was driven not only by the attractive spread levels and the opportunity to capitalize on market weaknesses, but also by the fact that for prudential purposes, these securities carry a zero risk-weighted asset charge.

A brief look at our latest bond issuance is important. As already mentioned, in Q4 '24, in November 2024, the bank successfully issued a EUR 500 million additional Tier 1 perpetual bond, confirming its strong access to the wholesale market. This positive momentum continued in January '25 with the successful placement of a EUR 500 million senior non-preferred bond.

Both transactions clearly demonstrate BPER's solid market positioning and ability to raise capital across different segments, further strengthening its status as a frequent and trusted issuer. It is also worth noting that Fitch upgraded BPER to positive outlook in January '25, further supporting the bank's strong credit profile. And last but not least, in April '25, following a positive rating action on the Italian sovereign credit profile, S&P upgraded BPER Banca long-term rating, raised from BBB- to BBB with a stable outlook.

On Slide 23, we report the divisional financials. I would like to draw your attention to the important results achieved on total wealth commission income created across our divisions, which amount to EUR 240 million in Q1 versus EUR 840 million achieved during the 12 months of 2024.

In addition, total indirect deposits in Private and Wealth Management division amounted to EUR 186 million, more than 60% of our total group TFAs, which stood at EUR 303 billion, underlining our strong asset gathering generation capacity.

Now ladies and gentlemen, a brief summary of the outmost important achievements in Q1 2025. First and foremost, on an adjusted basis, Q1 '25 was our best ever quarterly result with the bottom line standing at EUR 443 million. The quality of revenues is high, and this proved to be resilient. NII was affected by the acceleration of the reduction of interest rates and fewer business days, while commissions continue to register important growth rates, both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter.

Our profitability remained high with an adjusted return on tangible equity at robust 19.2%. Despite of the impact of Basel IV, mostly related to operational risk, we maintained a very solid capital position with a CET1 ratio at 15.8%, resulting from an organic capital generation amounting to 97 basis points, equal to EUR 540 million in the last 3 months.

Loan volumes were positively affected by significant new loan origination of EUR 4.4 billion, plus 22.3% year-on-year basis, with 60% of new lending being granted to entrepreneurs and corporate clients. And finally, the quality of our loan book continues to stand at the best levels in the Italian banking industry with a cost of risk of 31 basis points.

All in all, B:Dynamic Full Value 2027 is fully on track with 100% of our strategic initiatives launched. And I'm convinced that our business plan will be further strengthened by the planned business combination with Banca Popolare di Sondrio.

I will now pass on to the update slides on the proposed business combination announced in February, and we will take any questions thereafter.

As already mentioned, this is a unique opportunity to combine 2 banks with a very similar DNA, which share very similar values and missions and where we believe the integration of the 2 banks will be swift and effective. BPSO has a strong franchise in rich Northern Italy. It has a very similar historical background to BPER as its origins stem from the Banca Popolare and ensures an important business and client fit.

This will lead to the creation of a leading Italian banking group. The combination will transform BPER and BPSO into a stronger banking group, capable of seizing future opportunities, while at the same time ready to withstand any potential challenge. The new bank will become a go-to bank for families, SMEs, and corporates with a strong commitment to stakeholders' value creation.

All to say that our plan B:Dynamic Full Value 2027 will be further strengthened and accelerated by this business combination. At the bottom of the slide, you can see the indicated timeline of the tender offer between May and August. And thereafter, we would proceed with the merger by year-end.

This is a unique opportunity to create a banking group with a leading position in the Italian banking landscape and in particular, in rich Northern Italy with Popolare roots. The business combination will create a financially strong bank to support Italian family, SMEs, corporates, and local communities, placing the clients of both banks at the center of our offer and supporting them in a long-term sustainable manner.

Sondrio will remain key to the combined group. Territorial management will have credit capacity along with our other 9 regional centers. The new bank will reinforce and broaden the proximity client coverage model, becoming a stronger go-to bank for retail and corporate SMEs. Customers of BPSO will benefit from a higher investment capacity in products, service, innovation, and digitalization as well as the ability of the joint banks to scale up investments in technology.

Sondrio Human Capital will be fully empowered in the new banking group. BPSO employees will benefit from upskilling programs to support and develop career opportunities, also given the many initiatives in place to nurture and grow the talent pool towards high added value activities. One of these being, for example, the BPER Academy project.

Let me add that historically, such business combination have been important opportunities for the career development of talent. To date, 40% of top senior management positions in BPER are covered from professionals from merger institutions. In this context, social value creation is at the forefront of our approach, benefiting clients, colleagues, local communities and the territories where the 2 banks are present.

We have very carefully analyzed the business combination and our simulations remain unchanged despite the current interest rate scenario and the most recent strategic plan of Popolare di Sondrio. All in all, in 2027, we expect the combined entity to generate revenues of above EUR 7 billion as a result of higher productivity, cross-selling, and higher shares of wallet.

Operating income is those estimated at EUR 4 billion, benefiting from run rate synergies of EUR 290 million. These results would position the new group among the top tier in terms of profitability with an RoTE of approximately 15%, while maintaining a very solid capital position at above 15%. The business combination will be accretive on an EPS basis, both for BPER and BPSO shareholders.

All this being said, the level of shareholders' remuneration will stand at an average 75% dividend payout and this is an important feature of the proposed business combination for all shareholders, in particular, for those of Popolare di Sondrio. And finally, all shareholders will benefit from a banking group with a higher market capitalization and share liquidity, which will attract active and passive investors, given the potential entry in additional stock indices.

We are now ready to take your questions.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] The first question is from Andrea Lisi of Equita.

[Andrea Lisi, analyst]

I have the first one that is on the guidance on capital. You have indicated CET1 guidance above 15%, honestly, well above, during the call. That seems somewhat conservative given the 15.8% that you reported in the quarter. Just to understand if you expect further impact if you have factored in further RWA increase may be related to volume growth and so on. And so if it is reasonable to assume that this is really conservative or if there are impacts there that should we expect?

The other question is on the evolution of fees. So in particular, I want to understand which kind of products have been placed, in particular, the most during the quarter? And which kind of evolution should we expect regarding running and upfront fees on the investment fee side? And just a small clarification regarding the other revenues, the amount of the reimbursement of the claim related to Banca Carige acquisition, if you can quantify the amount of this item.

[Gianni Giacomo Pope, executive]

So capital, during my presentation, I mentioned well above 15%. So I confirm will be very above 15%. Having said so, yes, probably is a conservative approach that we have, but you know that we have been always having a conservative approach. We prefer to be conservative today given the macroeconomic scenario, the geopolitical scenarios.

Obviously, we have to monitor what is going to happen with the tariffs that have been imposed or are going to be imposed by the American administration. This might have an impact on the economy. So we prefer today, as I said, conservative. But as indicated, we believe we will be well above 15%.

In terms of evolution of fees, as you've seen, we had quite a positive evolution in the first quarter vis-a-vis the first quarter of last year, but also the last quarter of '24. If we deduct the performance, if you exclude the performance commission, we have an increase of 1.3%. We had a positive impact coming from wealth management, so asset under management and all these products as well as from Bancassurance activity.

These, as you know, are the 2 of the pillars of our strategic plan and we believe that we will keep on having positive results from this activity. Monitoring the -- what has been happening also at the beginning of the second quarter, we see that there has been a positive commercial attitude. Therefore, despite the fact that in the second quarter, there will be an impact coming from the large number of bank holidays and in Italian, we say ponte, I think in English is bridges, but doesn't mean anything that we had between April and May. But despite this, we saw a nice pickup, commercial pickup also in the first part of the second quarter.

So I believe that also in the second quarter, we will see positive activity coming from asset under management, so whatever is related to wealth management, private banking, Bancassurance. But you saw also that we had a quite good number in terms of banking services commission.

This on the back of the fact that we have been gaining market share in corporate. We have been quite active in the corporate investment banking activity in the first quarter. And we believe that also in this case, we'll be able to maintain and grow our commission fee base. In as much as the third question, I will pass to Simone that is about the other revenues.

[Simone Marcucci, executive]

Yes. Thank you very much, Mr. Papa. Regarding other revenues, other operating expenses income, I think you referred to this line of the Page 30 of the presentation, the EUR 48 million, in this EUR 40 million there is a component, EUR 34 million that they refer to the reimbursement of the claim related to the acquisition of Carige. It's a one-off and there are no more other effects in the next quarters.

[Operator]

The next question is from Marco Nicolai of Jefferies.

[Marco Nicolai, analyst]

So I've got one on personnel costs. So these are down 5% year-on-year. It seems mostly are driven -- this trend is driven mostly by lower headcount. So is this sustainable? And where do you expect the headcount to be at the end of the year?

And another question on asset quality. So yes, we saw the NPL ratio going up a little bit Q-on-Q. Can you share your thoughts about where this ratio will be at the end of the year and where the stock will trend in the coming quarters? And could you give us a sensitivity of your cost of risk guidance towards lower levels of GDP growth. So if you assume, for example, no GDP growth this year in Italy, where your cost of risk will be in this scenario?

[Gianni Giacomo Pope, executive]

So in terms of cost, yes, we had an improvement in the performance of the cost-to-income ratio. The cost of personnel went down. You saw that we already decreased by almost 1,000 staff between the last year basically. We had a further decrease also in -- compared to the last quarter of last year. We will have further decrease so by year-end we will have -- by the end of '25, we will have an additional 620 staff that will be leaving the banking group. This is based on the agreement that we reached with the unions in June last year and in December 2023.

The remaining 360 will be leaving the bank in 2026. This will bring obviously further decrease in cost. If you look at the cost we had in 2025, the staff cost is expected to increase by EUR 30.2 million due to the national contract, of which EUR 20 million is associated to the drag effect of 2024, which comes into 2025.

And then also in '26, we will have an increase with the drag effect from '25 spillover in '26 and a small amount in '26. But overall, we have also savings coming from the exiting of the staff.

So the number by year-end, as I said, we moved from 19,424, we have 620 exiting. You know that the agreement with the unions is that we hire one every 2 that leave the group. But obviously, going forward towards the end of the year, we have also to consider the probable acquisition of Banca Popolare di Sondrio that will bring in the number of staff, and then we will make -- we'll have new considerations about the new group that is going to be formed by this transaction.

In as much as asset quality and cost of risk, I will pass now to Mr. Cristini, our CRO, that will give you full details.

[Emanuele Cristini, executive]

Okay. Thank you. First of all, thank you for your question. With regard to asset quality evolution, first of all, it's worth highlighting some relevant positive topics related to our credit risk profile. The annual default rate is stable, lower than 1%. In the last quarter, we registered a reduction of [indiscernible] with a general improvement of the risk quality of the portfolio.

In addition, as highlighted in the presentation, the Stage 2 exposures of the performing portfolio have significantly reduced by EUR 1 billion on a quarterly basis, by EUR 1.6 billion on a yearly basis. The coverage ratio remained very high, among the highest in Italy, both for performing and nonperforming exposures. Just to give you some color on this, in case of application of coverage ratios of other comparable peers, there will be a release of at least EUR 400 million of provisioning.

Having said that, the slight increase of the NPL ratios that have been registered in the first quarter is due both to the reduction of loans of above EUR 500 million and to the fact that the bank has not recently performed any massive disposal. In this regard, it's worth noticing that the current NPL portfolio is characterized by high presence of exposure [ to struggling ] guarantees, namely such MCC and so on, for which it's better to continue the work activity instead of performing disposals.

Anyway, some massive disposal are expected to be complete by the end of this year after having collected an adequate amount of exposure to be sold. As for the guidance of the NPL ratio at the end of this year, taking into consideration the good credit risk quality of the portfolio, the forecasted increase of the loans and some disposal of the NPA exposures, we think that the NPL ratio will be stable at the end of this year.

With regard to the sensitivity of the cost of risk related to macroeconomic scenarios, in particular, the GDP variable, we have a sensitivity of 2 basis points of cost of risk increase in case of 1% of decrease of GDP. Generally speaking, with regard to our provision, anyway, it's worth remembering that our bank has accounted a high amount of overlays. So we think that we are prepared for some uncertainties related to the evolution of macroeconomic and geopolitical scenario.

[Gianni Giacomo Pope, executive]

Just to specify the fact that we have not had any disposal of assets was -- is a strategic decision, as highlighted by Mr. Cristini because these loans, although being NPE are assisted by MCC or such guarantees. So the recovery rate here is equal almost to 100%. So there's no point to sell in the market at discount prices when we can manage this and recover a very high proportion, if not totally, our exposure.

I want to give you also further details on the previous question about the cost of account. We will have savings that will be booked in 2025 by EUR 38 million due to the exit of the numbers that I mentioned. In '25, we'll have EUR 71 million of savings in 2026 and EUR 77 million of savings in 2027. This by the exiting of the staff, as mentioned before.

[Operator]

The next question is from Fabrizio Bernardi of Intermonte.

[Fabrizio Bernardi, analyst]

I just have one question regarding the 2 slides on Sondrio that you presented. I mean we are aware that this is your main M&A partner. I would like to understand if you have an agenda to schedule about what may happen because including these 2 slides, and assuming that -- I'm not assuming, considering that the Board -- the 5 members of the Board have been replaced, thanks to also Unipol Assicurazioni, we may consider that the story is going to a certain end. So maybe if you can help us to understand what is going. It's not, in my opinion, a question of if, but the question of when this may happen.

[Gianni Giacomo Pope, executive]

Yes. Well, the strategy of the Board of Popolare di Sondrio will be defined by the new Board of Popolare di Sondrio. So this is very difficult for me to comment on. What I can comment and what I can stress and repeat is the fact that we have been always open to discussion to sit down with the Board, with the top manager on the bank. We said this from the very first day when we launched the offering. We are still open to sit down and to discuss.

We made the first move. We mentioned -- I mentioned personally in several interviews how open we were to discuss, et cetera. Now we need to have a step from them in our direction. They say that it takes 2 to tango, but if the other one doesn't want to dance, I cannot do anything. So -- and we keep on going the way. But again, having said so, we are open and the best way would be to sit down and find a way along the line that we have indicated.

I mean, there is no other possibility here. But it's clear. We said from day 1 that this on our side was not -- was an amicable transaction in the sense that we see a strong strategic and industrial fit between the 2 banks. As I mentioned during my presentation, banks that stems from the Banca Popolare root, they have the same attention for customers, being families, individuals, companies, large, small, micro, very strong presence and a strong proximity to the communities. This is it. So there is -- there are new Board members. There is a new Chairman now, is up to the Board of Sondrio to decide whether to make a step forward towards us or not.

[Operator]

The next question is from Domenico Santoro of HSBC.

[Domenico Santoro, analyst]

A question on capital and a question on the NII, please. On the capital in the bridge, you showed Page 18, can you please comment on the contribution from DTA on tax loss carry forward? I think it's probably included in the OCG. So can you give us the quantum? I guess this is a bit of an underestimating item for Italian banks because we see accumulation of capital being stronger and stronger. And you probably haven't given us yet what is the contribution from this item over the next 2, 3 years will be very useful to understand how the capital can evolve.

On this bridge as well, I just want to make sure that you have used the 75% payout for the calculation of dividends. And then on the NII instead, I assume, and please correct me if I'm mistaken, that your asset spread, asset yield held up relatively well compared probably to other competitors that have disclosed results so far. But you have -- I also see loans going down quarter-on-quarter. I'm not sure this is on stated numbers or maybe on average balance might be different story. So what's the trade-off here? Because this is a bit of the discussion coming up from this set of results. Are we going to see stable loans with the intention to protect credit quality and margins going forward or the equation can be a little bit different going forward?

[Gianni Giacomo Pope, executive]

I will take the first part of the answer in terms of NII, and then I'll put through Simone for the other questions. So in terms of volumes, yes, we had a decrease in volumes in the first quarter. But as you might recall, we ended the year last year with a plus 2.2%, whereas the market was down by 4.4% in terms of volumes in lending. And for us, was not a window dressing exercise.

So what happened is that we have performed better in the first quarter because the growth that we had in the last quarter last year was a sustainable one and was not one of the actions that all the banks performed towards the end of the year, window dressing the numbers of volumes to come up with better results. And in fact, we grew now in the first quarter, it went down by EUR 0.5 billion, which is in percentage terms is very small. But we started the year on a better foot on a better note compared to what was expected, and we keep on having the results associated to that in the first quarter.

And hopefully, going forward, we will -- we believe that we'll be growing the volumes and we'll be able to deliver the famous 3% growth CAGR that we have presented in our business plan back in October last year. Now I ask Simone to fulfill the question.

[Simone Marcucci, executive]

Regarding the net interest income, clearly, we have been impacted not so much on the commercial side but mostly on the other components. Clearly, as we said, we will finish the year at mid-single digit down. In the next quarter that I think what you are interesting, we will further decrease, but a very smoother pace in order to arrive to what we have said as a guidance.

Regarding the CET1 ratio, we had in DTA effect, not profit and loss, but balance sheet, we had EUR 90 million this quarter. We will have another EUR 100 million in the next quarter to finish everything approximately in the third quarter 2025.

[Gianni Giacomo Pope, executive]

Yes. Domenico, there was a point that you made. We have set aside 71% as payout ratio, let's say on the net profit, not on the OCG. So we are not including the DTAs. So when we presented our strategic plan, we said that we were promising an average 75% of payout across the 3 years. For the first quarter, we set aside 71% given also the fact that, as I said, there is -- the macroeconomic environment is what it is. But I'm pretty sure that we are going to fulfill the 75% year-end. But again, it is on net profit and it's not on OCG.

[Domenico Santoro, analyst]

Sorry, just a clarification because this is important vis-a-vis the other banks. The DTA recognition in Q1 was EUR 90 million. Then you said you expect another EUR 100 million next quarter and probably another EUR 100 million in Q3.

[Gianni Giacomo Pope, executive]

No, no, no. No, sorry, I was -- EUR 100 million in total in the next quarters, so EUR 100 million finish at the quarter 3, EUR 100 million in total, an additional EUR 100 million.

[Domenico Santoro, analyst]

And what about next year?

[Gianni Giacomo Pope, executive]

Nothing, zero.

[Domenico Santoro, analyst]

So all the tax loss carryforward is exhausted this year then?

[Gianni Giacomo Pope, executive]

Exactly.

[Domenico Santoro, analyst]

Can I just ask what -- because they're asking me what's the Euribor assumption that you have in your NII, please, guidance?

[Gianni Giacomo Pope, executive]

Yes. We have -- at the moment, we run assumption 2%, but we made simulation also at 175%. In any case, we remain mid-single digit. Our budget interest income, our planned interest income is absolutely confirmed not at risking these 2 assumptions.

[Operator]

The next question is from Luis Pratas of Autonomous.

[Luis Pratas, analyst]

I have a quick one on costs. So I understand that costs are running much better than expected. And you, of course, mentioned a few incremental cost-saving measures this year, but then there is cost inflation on top, many moving parts. For that reason, I would like to ask if you could give an absolute cost guidance for the year or some extra color on how you expect the total cost line to move throughout 2025 stand-alone?

[Gianni Giacomo Pope, executive]

Yes. In the guidance -- so we put the guidance for cost at below 51%. So we closed the year at -- sorry, we closed the quarter at 46.7%, which is an absolute minimum that we had if you compare to the last year. I'm always saying that we are working very hard both on the HR cost as well as the non-HR costs, so administrative costs. And in fact, also these are going down.

What is going up is the D&A because of the large investments that we are doing in terms of IT platforms, et cetera. And in fact, you see -- so if you look at the cost, excluding D&A, everything is going down. But as usual, although we are trying to be as, let's say, clean as possible, in the fourth quarter of the year, you have always a pickup in cost because you have all the costs, all the invoices coming and so on and so forth. So the indication is that by year-end, we will be at below 51%. But again, we are working very hard in order to reduce as much as possible and hopefully performing better than the below 51%.

[Luis Pratas, analyst]

Can I do just a quick follow-up on the previous question regarding DTAs. Just to make sure, when you mentioned that all DTAs are exhausted by Q3 this year, do you include like all the types of DTAs? Or are we talking here just about tax loss carryforward? I'm thinking, for instance, what about DTCs?

[Gianni Giacomo Pope, executive]

Only tax losses.

[Operator]

The next question is from Ignacio Ulargui of BNP Paribas Exane.

[Ignacio Ulargui, analyst]

I just have one question on the bond portfolio. I mean I wanted to get a bit of a sense after the increase that we have seen this quarter, how much more we could expect the bond portfolio to increase and how that will play out into the NII? And then the second question is a bit of a follow-up on the potential payout once BPSO deal is completed. I mean even if you end up in a comfortable capital position, do you think that 75% has no upside?

I mean I'm thinking your capital buildup has been much stronger than what I would have expected. You end up always with a very strong level of conservatism in your capital guidance. But is there no upside on that side? I mean do you think that the 75% is the maximum that we could expect once the deal is completed?

[Gianni Giacomo Pope, executive]

I give you part of the answer, and then I'll put through Simone. So in as much as bond portfolio is concerned, let's see, this is the maximum we could reach -- we have reached and now we stay at this level. So we have no possibility of further increase our position and our exposure towards this kind of securities.

In as much as the potential upside in the payout once the Sondrio transaction is done, look, I always mentioned that we presented -- when we presented our plan, we were talking about an average of 75%. Let's see how everything progresses. It's a matter of fact that given the current macroeconomic situation, we prefer to keep a conservative approach.

Nevertheless, if the capital will be to a level -- will reach a level that will allow us to pay more than 75%, we might decide to pay more than 75% bearing in mind that the decision has to be taken by the Board and approved by the ECB. We always mention this, and this is what is going to happen also because we need to consider how Sondrio will end up, 35 plus 1 and 50 plus 1 or higher, 100%. So it's very much -- it's very difficult today to say what is going to be. In terms of impact on NII from the bond portfolio, I put through, Simone.

[Simone Marcucci, executive]

Yes. Taking account that as Mr. Papa has stated, we will not increase the portfolio in the next quarters for your projections. The impact of the change of portfolio that happened this quarter will be negligible in the next quarter. You can assume a stable remuneration from the portfolio in the next quarters.

[Operator]

The next question is from Juan Pablo Lopez Cobo of Santander.

[Juan Lopez Cobo, analyst]

I got 2 kind of follow-ups. First one in terms of NII. I don't know if you could provide a bit more color regarding the non-commercial impact on NII this quarter. You mentioned lower remuneration on ECB deposits. What could we expect going forward on this one? And if you could clarify as well if there is any super bonus impact in the quarter?

The second question is regarding fee income that were very strong in AUMs. If I look to AUMs are like 7% up year-on-year, while the fees related to AUMs are like 20% up year-on-year. If you could also elaborate a bit more regarding if there's any change in the mix of AUMs. And lastly, one question regarding the Sondrio transaction, the competition authority, the antitrust, they released a report in April, and they highlighted, some concentration in small corporates in some provinces like Varese. I will be curious to hear what do you think on this? And if you think this could delay your calendar to some extent.

[Gianni Giacomo Pope, executive]

I'll answer first and then I'll put through Simone for the NII. I'll start from the last question. For Sondrio, we are in discussion with all the regulators. As a matter of fact, you have probably seen the other -- the other communication that we made this morning in terms of the authorization from IVASS that is the regulator of insurance companies. They gave us the authorization to acquire more than 30% of the insurance company.

So it's another tick that we put in the box. So it's done. We got the approval of the Golden Power from the government. And so now we are waiting for the approval of the ECB, Bank of Italy, obviously, the market regulator CONSOB. We are in discussion with the antitrust. Antitrust is performing all the checks, and we don't have any outcome yet from the discussion. I don't know why it came out on the press about hundreds of closures or whatever. No outcome at all.

But we do expect a minimum impact because we have only concentration in few areas. And in those areas, probably we'll have to sell some branches. But again, it's really a minimum impact. I don't think that we are going to have a delay under this point of view. It's a matter of fact that we are constantly having -- in contact with the Antitrust authority, and we didn't receive any information from them about problems. So again, now very much everything depends from the authorization of ECB and Bank of Italy.

In terms of commission, yes, we had a very good performance. I think that as I mentioned also before, we do believe that we will keep on improving and having quite good performance in terms of wealth, so the overall wealth, so in terms of AUMs, life insurance. Bancassurance also will bring in quite good commission income. As you know, at year-end, we received also the performance commission on the back of our activity. So also there, our target is to receive this performance fees also in December this year.

It is important, as I mentioned before, also the component related to banking services. Banking services, if you look at our presentation, went down to 50.8% on the total commission in the first quarter compared to the 53.7% that we had in the first quarter of last year. Nevertheless, it's a 2.5% increase.

Differently from our competitors, we have an increase in banking services due to the fact that on one hand, we have an increase in customer. You might recall that last year, we grew our customer base net by almost 50,000 customers. We have been having quite good performance also in the first quarter of this year. We have been growing the customer -- the net customer base. And obviously, this allows us to create positive performance in banking services.

We are gaining market share on the back of our strategic plan on the corporate side. This brings obviously on payments, on foreign business, fees coming from guarantees that we are issued in favor of our customers and transactional fees that we receive in the investment banking activity. What will happen is that probably banking services at this point will stay in and around 50% of total commissions because we are improving quarter-by-quarter, the revenues, the commission revenues coming from assets under management, assets under custody, life insurance, Bancassurance. So the quality is further improving. But I don't see a different change in the mix.

[Simone Marcucci, executive]

So regarding net interest income, the component noncommercial on Page 11, we forecast for the next quarter, again, a slight impact, not at this level. This component, as we said, is mainly related to SCB remuneration. So it's pure function of Euribor and there are minor [indiscernible] again related to NPE and so on, but always a pure function of Euribor.

Therefore, according to our assumption on Euribor for the next quarter, we have a much more moderate effect, still some negative effect, not massive as we had in this quarter. Instead related to Ecobonus, Ecobonus for the next quarter should be more or less constant, maybe slightly decreasing, but negligible. The impact on Ecobonus will be in 2026 and 2027.

[Operator]

The next question is from Hugo Cruz of KBW.

[Hugo Moniz Marques Da Cruz, analyst]

Two questions, if I may. Your page Slide 23 as a segment, and I thought it was quite interesting. The RWAs are quite concentrated in the corporate segment relative to the revenue contribution. So I was just wondering if that's just an artifact of internal accounting? Or is there something you can optimize to try to improve the profitability of that segment? And second, on capital, can you remind us if there are any model adjustments or capital optimization left to do until the end of the year?

[Gianni Giacomo Pope, executive]

So you are referring to the divisional database basically, right on Page 23?

[Hugo Moniz Marques Da Cruz, analyst]

Yes.

[Gianni Giacomo Pope, executive]

Okay. So well, obviously, the corporate is always a different return than from retail and Private Banking and Wealth Management. It's a matter of fact that here, we want to improve the return on our investments on the capital that we are allocating to our customers. This is an exercise that we started 1 year ago. You might remember that now we have the [indiscernible] let's say, rules within the group for which we want a minimum return on capital that we are allocated to the customers.

Obviously, this doesn't happen overnight. But month after month, quarter after quarter, we see a return going higher. On top of that, our positioning also vis-a-vis the corporate customers, we are moving from being a pure relation bank of these companies to become a strategic partner to these companies, which entails on one hand that we are going to grow the volumes in lending because we want for those customers that have credit merit, obviously, we will become more important, and we want to have a higher share of wallet with them.

And this, on the other hand, will bring in also revenues coming from commissions. So all in all, in the quarters to come, you will see an improvement in the return on the capital allocated to corporate. But it's not an accounting matter. We are really working on divisional data in order to make sure that we allocate capital where capital has the good return.

On top of that, we need also to consider the fact that by working more with corporate, we are automatically also working much more on the private and wealth management activity because by becoming more important and increasing the share of wallet with the corporate sector, we started and we see already the results managing the private wealth of top managers or the owners of these corporate companies.

Therefore, this -- the profitability of this relation, you see it in the Private and Wealth Management divisional database, but stems from the activity in corporate. So in a way, should be split between the 2 because you have, on one hand, capital that is allocated to lending. And on the other hand, hit the corporate profitability. On the other hand, you have return on the management of wealth that goes into Private and Wealth Management. So we need also to consider this.

[Simone Marcucci, executive]

Yes. On the capital instead, as mentioned, in the pure capital, apart of the organic capital generation, as I mentioned, we have the EUR 100 million mentioned before. If you mean the CET1 ratio instead of the denominator, clearly, on the risk-weighted assets, the organic, let me say, maneuver that we make and then you remember that we had the securitization, as Mr. Papa mentioned, that we take the flexibility if, when, and how much we will have to do.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] The next question is a follow-up from Luis Pratas of Autonomous.

[Luis Pratas, analyst]

I have a quick follow-up on this last question regarding capital. Just to make sure the Basel IV impact, if you could give -- what was the Basel IV impact this quarter, if it was already like net of any optimization measure on your side? And in terms of those SRTs that you just mentioned, if you could give like any capital expectation saving from the SRT.

[Gianni Giacomo Pope, executive]

So we have Mr. Cristini that will answer the first part of the question and then Mr. Marcucci, please.

[Emanuele Cristini, executive]

Well, as highlighted in the presentation, the impact of Basel IV accounts for around EUR 1.6 billion, around 49 basis points on CET1 ratio, mainly related to operational risk for around 44 basis points. The impact on capital is lower than what we anticipated after preliminary analysis, thanks in particular to some methodological refinements, for example, data quality improvements and the extensive use of external rating in order to reduce the unrated exposure.

So during the last month, we have performed several interventions, several improvements in our methodologies in order to reduce this impact and the final result has been shown in the presentation. I leave the floor to you.

[Simone Marcucci, executive]

Regarding the securitization, the SRT, we are working on that. We will be ready for the third quarter. But as I mentioned before, given our position of capital, no decision has been taken on if, when, how much we will do on it.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Mr. Papa, there are no more questions registered at this time.

[Gianni Giacomo Pope, executive]

Okay. Thank you very much for participating, and we'll see you in the next quarter results. Thank you.

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over. You may disconnect your telephones. Thank you.