Infrastrutture Wireless Italiane SpA

MIL:INW

Q2-2025 Earnings Call

[Operator]

Good morning. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Second Quarter 2025 INWIT Financial Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Fabio Ruffini, Head of Investor Relations of INWIT. Please go ahead, sir.

[Fabio Ruffini, executive]

Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us. With me today are Diego Galli, INWIT GM; and Emilia Trudu, CFO.

Before we begin, please allow me to draw your attention to the safe harbor statement on Page 2.

And as usual, following a brief presentation, we will open the floor to questions.

Over to you, Diego.

[Diego Galli, executive]

Thank you, Fabio, and good morning, everyone. We are pleased to share a satisfactory set of results today. Execution is in line with the business plan trajectory. All key metrics expanded in Q2.

From an industrial standpoint, we recorded steady growth in new towers, new PoPs and real estate transactions.

Revenues were up in the mid-single digits with an expansion in EBITDA margin. Growth continues to be driven by smart infrastructure, indoor DAS, IoT solutions and large connectivity projects. We added new locations in multiple verticals, affirming our leadership.

In the quarter, we also delivered material shareholder remuneration, EUR 600 million between ordinary dividends, up 7.5% year-on-year, and share buyback.

Looking ahead, the need for substantial 5G investment remains a key driver in Italy. Mobile data traffic is growing at double-digit rates. Data per user is expected to more than double by 2030. Relevant areas of the country lack appropriate coverage outdoor and indoor.

At the same time, our clients are conscious of margins and cash flow generation. They are limiting discretionary investments. The Italian telecom sector continues to face challenges.

In this context, we are conscious of our role as an enabler of investment and a driver of efficiency for our customers.

We take a proactive approach, acting on all levers under our control, delivering on MSA commitments; pushing on smart infrastructure, particularly indoor, where there is a growing market; doubling down on cost efficiency, particularly on real estate, investing in land buyout; and in a renewable energy project.

Neutral host has many multiple ways, industrial specialization, sharing economics, a model of long-term returns and an efficient cost structure to continue to offer competitive prices to clients. Our role is even more important in the current industry context.

Moving to main trends of the quarter on Page 4. The key figures for the quarter show 210 new towers, a pickup versus Q1, in line with 2025 targets. 720 new PoPs with tenancy ratio approaching 2.4. 370 real estate transactions, mainly land buyout. Revenue growth by 4.6% with smart infrastructure up almost 40% year-on-year. EBITDA after lease up by 5.5% with margin up by about 1 percentage point to 73%. Recurring free cash flow at EUR 158 million with 64% cash conversion. And net debt to EBITDA at 5x, reflecting a strong shareholder remuneration.

In summary, with an industry in transition, INWIT continues to deliver solid growth and cost efficiency and expand its digital infrastructure assets to offer hosting services at the most competitive terms. We remain committed to supporting our clients in advancing mobile networks and are ready to facilitate further network densification.

Now I will turn it over to Emilia for a more detailed review of the results. Thank you.

[Emilia Trudu, executive]

Thank you, Diego, and good morning, everyone. On Page 5, the focus is on new towers rollout. The second quarter saw a pickup in the rollout of new towers with 210 sites delivered in line with the expectations flagged in Q1 and consistent with the full year target of 800 new towers. Deployment is progressing at a solid pace across both MSA commitments and the 5G NextGenerationEU program.

In the long term, we expect continued demand for new tower infrastructure driven by structural needs to enhance 5G coverage and support network densification.

In particular, the market outlook as reflected in the business plan points to a potential for 7,000 to 12,000 additional towers in Italy by 2030 underpinned by data traffic growth, primarily in urban areas requiring a denser tower infrastructure; the transition to 5G in suburban areas; and the need to cover approximately 9,000 kilometers of roads and railways currently lacking adequate quality connectivity.

Moving to total PoPs on Page 6. 720 new PoPs were added during the quarter, evenly split between anchors and other clients, bringing the total H1 figure to nearly 1,500. This is well on track to meet our full year target of approximately 2,500 new PoPs.

As outlined in the 2025-2030 guidance presentation, this target reflects the rebalanced run rate of 625 PoPs per quarter for the current year, down from the quarterly pace of 900 PoPs recorded in 2024.

Of the new additions, 360 PoPs were delivered for TIM and Fastweb plus Vodafone, driven by MSA contractual commitments and mostly related to new sites. The 360 new PoPs with other clients include new contracts with all main operators, reinforcing INWIT's role as a neutral host.

The mix of new PoPs from other clients continues to be driven by steady pace with other MNOs and solid demand from IoT players, particularly in smart grid applications.

Next, on Page 7, we review smart infrastructure. We continue to build solid commercial momentum in smart infrastructure with year-on-year revenue growth of approximately 40%, reaching over EUR 22 million in Q2. Our asset portfolio in premium high-traffic locations continues to expand, further reinforcing our leadership in indoor coverage solutions enabled by Distributed Antenna Systems.

In the quarter, we added approximately 30 new DAS-equipped locations across multiple verticals, bringing the total to over 680. Looking ahead, demand for dedicated indoor connectivity is expected to remain strong, particularly in high-density areas, driven by the technological shift to 5G.

DAS systems provide reliable, high-quality indoor connectivity, support for advanced digital applications, seamless and secure user access and enhanced cybersecurity and data protection.

In line with this, in our business plan outlook, we estimate a market potential of 2,000 new locations by 2030, representing over 65% growth versus today's footprint.

Next, we review the P&L. Revenue growth stood at 4.6%, in line with the 2025 guidance midpoint. Anchor revenues were up, driven by MSA commitments and inflation. OLOs were slightly up both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, supported by steady pace with other MNOs and sustained volumes with utility clients, particularly for IoT applications. And as mentioned, smart infrastructure continues its solid growth trajectory with revenues up approximately 40%.

The EBITDA margin remained stable at 91.4% with OpEx growth driven by a larger infrastructure estate and the need to fuel smart infra revenues growth.

EBITDA after lease improved by over 5% with margin up by 0.6 percentage points to 73% driven by real estate efficiency, particularly through continued execution of the land buyout strategy.

Finally, net income increased by 4.6% to EUR 93 million, reflecting the expected trends in D&A, stable interest expenses and taxes.

Moving to the cash flow on Page 9. Recurring free cash flow amounted to EUR 158 million in the quarter, in line with expectations and underpinning approximately 8% return on capital employed for the business.

In the quarter, we recorded low recurring CapEx, low tax payments benefiting from the goodwill tax scheme, slightly negative net working capital, though confirming our positive guidance for full year and lower lease payments and financial charges versus Q1.

Below the recurring line, we recorded EUR 78 million in growth CapEx and other items, EUR 480 million of ordinary dividend payments and the continuation of the share buyback totaling approximately EUR 110 million in Q2.

Reported leverage stood at 5x net debt-to-EBITDA, reflecting the impact of enhanced shareholder remuneration, dividends and buybacks and consistent with the leverage optimization path we designed in the business plan.

With this, I hand it back to Diego. Thank you.

[Diego Galli, executive]

Thanks, Emilia. Moving to sustainability for a quick update on the plan. During the quarter, we made progress on the ESG front through several actions aimed at reducing the digital divide, advancing our climate commitment and improving our ESG rating.

In particular, we reached 80% of electricity sourced from renewables as part of our path towards carbon neutrality. We increased the number of new points of presence in white and vulnerable areas by almost 800.

We further improved our ESG ratings. We are proud to confirm our continued inclusion in the Euronext ESG index and in the FTSE4Good Index as well as our recognition as top employer for the second consecutive year.

Moving to Page 11. Just a few words going back to the topic of the industry context and the set of opportunities and challenges for INWIT. Looking at both day-by-day examples and statistical evidence, Italy lags behind peers in terms of digitalization and related infrastructure. There is a clear need to catch up, which is an opportunity.

At the same time, the operators are dealing with limited cash flow generation in a very competitive market. This is not sustainable and has already triggered important corporate and industrial transactions, which go in the right direction and others may follow.

In such an evolving scenario, INWIT has the best assets in the market, is protected by a solid MSA and is well positioned to capture any additional cycles of investments with a truly industrial model, deploying investments in the most efficient way.

In the meantime, we continue to be proactive on all levers under our control, both on revenues and costs. We expect to grow EBITDAaL at 6% per annum until 2030 while delivering an attractive shareholder remuneration and continue looking for additional growth opportunities with our balance sheet flexibility.

With this, I thank you, and we are now ready for the Q&A session.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] First question is from Roshan Ranjit, Deutsche Bank.

[Roshan Ranjit, analyst]

I've got one around the lease cost, please. I think in Q1, you suggested that the lease cost trend would be normalized levels, I think, of 1.8% growth year-on-year. This quarter, you've done even better. I think you're basically flat year-on-year.

Are we now starting to see the real benefits of the land purchases come through? Even when we look at it on a lease cost per site, the decline has accelerated. So I guess my question is when we look at the guidance for '25, should we be thinking about the upper end of that EBITDAaL range?

[Diego Galli, executive]

Yes, on lease cost, clearly, it's a key area of focus from our side to deliver efficiency and increase EBITDAaL margin. The program has 2 key components: one is continuous renegotiation of contracts, but it's also, and in particular, the land buyout program, which is continuing in line with the plan. We have achieved now 16% of land owned. So this is, again, in line with the overall trajectory, which will take us at 30% of land owned by 2030.

Also from a financial standpoint, I would say the trajectory is in line with targets. So we are delivering, again, efficiency to either negotiation and land buyout, and the trajectory is in line with what is expected and planned.

So no -- again, program is progressing well and everything on track.

[Operator]

Next question is from Paul Sidney, Berenberg.

[Paul Sidney, analyst]

It was really around returns. You reported an 8% return on capital employed, I think, for the quarter today. How do you expect that returns metric to evolve over time, particularly as we look out to 2030? And how important is this returns metric in setting out your capital allocation priorities and how you think about allocating capital?

[Diego Galli, executive]

Yes. Thanks, Paul, for the question. Yes, clearly, the return on capital employed has been improving in the last years and we will continue to improve. We have an investment policy with double-digit returns. And this applies to our capital allocation as well when we compare additional organic investments as well as additional shareholder remuneration and potentially additional inorganic investments.

So we are satisfied with the trajectory so far, which is in line with the overall plans and continuing to delivering the growth we have in our plan, the return will continue to improve and grow.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Next question is from Fabio Pavan, Mediobanca.

[Fabio Pavan, analyst]

First one is an update on conversation going with Swisscom.

Second one is, I was wondering if you can give us more color on the progressing business with the anchors in general terms?

And the third question is if you have some update on your ambitions for external growth? Is there some option you are already scouting? Or is that something that could come eventually in the next few quarters?

[Diego Galli, executive]

Yes. Thanks, Fabio. On the first one, I would say, as we shared in the past, we are in constant dialogue with all our customers to support their needs, the network needs, in the most efficient way to extend the business perimeter and the business relationship, especially in the current context where efficiency is key for our customers and for the industry. So constant and continuous dialogue.

And continuing on this, clearly, what we do see from our anchor tenants is limited space, limited room for discretionary investment. As I said, clearly, the industry is still under pressure on cash flow generation and investment returns and this takes to very limited availability for discretionary budget and additional investments, which actually are needed in the market to improve on 5G penetration and digitalization.

In this context, we also look at additional opportunities for growth in our capital allocation as, I would say, an attractive shareholder remuneration as well as space, still a financial headroom of more than EUR 1 billion for additional investments.

The areas we see as a potential way to extend our perimeter and our business continue growing is potentially the involvement in RAN as a Service as well as the edge data center, and in particular, the small distributed need of computing capacity at the edge of the network, which has quite several similarities with our business model and our infrastructure.

So those are the opportunities, which we'll continue to scout and assess compared to the alternatives in the logic of the capital allocation as we did in the past.

[Operator]

Next question is from Rohit Modi, Citi.

[Rohit Modi, analyst]

One around the PoP additions. I think you have a guidance of 2,500 PoP additions in the year. Given the run rate in the first half, are you seeing achieving much higher than the guidance? Or do you think there will be a slowdown in the second half in terms of PoP additions?

And secondly, similarly on the RLFCF guidance. Given what you have achieved in the first half, you need just flattish to -- flattish kind of RLFCF for the second half to achieve the lower end of the guidance. So do we expect RLFCF moving towards more upper end of the guidance for the full year?

[Emilia Trudu, executive]

Thank you. Yes, we have seen a good start to the year and good progression year-to-date in first semester with almost 1,500 new PoPs equally split between anchors and OLOs. We see steady pace with all the major clients. And the anchor customers are in line with commitments, and the other MNOs are developing nicely. And we see supportive contribution coming either from FWA customers as well as from OTMO and IoT customers.

So for the time being, we confirm the guidance for the year. Too early for call for an upside in terms of volumes, but nice development so far.

[Fabio Ruffini, executive]

Rohit, was there a second element to your question? If so, can you please repeat?

[Rohit Modi, analyst]

Yes. It's basically on the free cash flow. Do you expect -- given the second half, you need just flattish free cash flow -- recurring level free cash flow, do you expect upside there as well? I mean that's linked to the first question.

[Emilia Trudu, executive]

Let's say, the free cash flow -- the recurring free cash flow is almost in line with the expectations with -- driven by the growth in EBITDA with -- in the quarter slightly -- in the quarter, the slightly negative net working capital, but we confirm the positive expectation on the full year.

We had some lower tax cash out due to the, let's say, phasing of advances payment and settlement payments related to the year before and the financial charges cash out in line with the expectation.

So overall, we confirm also on recurring free cash flow the expectation for -- the guidance for the full year.

[Operator]

Next question is from Milo Silvestre, Equita.

[Milo Silvestre, analyst]

My question relates to a follow-up concerning the potential new investments. So here, if you can elaborate a little bit on data center and RAN as a Service. So if you are discussing with clients about these opportunities and if we -- maybe we can see maybe a small contribution maybe starting from 2026.

[Diego Galli, executive]

Yes. Thanks for the question. Yes, when we talk about edge, we assess, let me say, the data center as a continuum starting from the -- clearly the hyperscaler data center, which are at an extreme. And at the opposite extreme, we think there will be the need of computing capacity distributed in hundreds of points of presence across the country.

Clearly, we are not interested to the hyperscaler.

We are interested to the other extreme of the, again, the computing capacity distributed over the network for telco operators, telco customers as well as for other kind of customers from municipality -- for example, municipalities, smart cities, transport application for transportation.

Now the demand for edge data center -- far edge data center is still limited. We expect it will be growing and that's why it's what we are scouting and assessing together with the potential closer to it that is the distributed regional data center.

Clearly, we look at it because we think that there is a potential to establish a business model, which is very similar to the tower business model based on investments, long-term and visible returns, wholesale approach. And then based on this, again, we do see an opportunity and we are working to be ready when it will be materializing in the market.

[Milo Silvestre, analyst]

What about RAN as a Service here, if you can elaborate also on that point?

[Diego Galli, executive]

Yes. Again, from a logical point of view, we do see as a potential natural extension of the tower companies, an extension of the perimeter from the passive infrastructure to the active. We -- so we do see there is a logic, again, in terms of financial rationale as well as industrial rationale in creating industrial synergies.

At the same time, we have to say there are no many examples in the industry as well as the appetite from the operators for involving -- for doing it and eventually involving a tower company is still a question mark, though we think is logical, rational and for the medium, long term is something which would make sense to rationalize further the industry and create further efficiency overall in the value chain. So it's an opportunity for the medium, long term.

[Operator]

Mr. Ruffini, there are no more questions registered at this time.

Apologies. There is one additional question from Giorgio Tavolini, Intermonte.

[Giorgio Tavolini, analyst]

Sorry for this very last minute questions. The first one is on the FWA. Apparently, EOLO is stepping up its network on the 5G stand-alone and fixed wireless access. Also TIM is apparently making a greater use of FWA. I don't know if it's also to reduce their reliance on fiber cost, in particular in the areas where FWA could be more effective. So I was wondering if you are seeing some pickup in demand for FWA.

The second question is on the possibility that Agcom allows the renewal of the spectrum licenses in exchange of increased investments by MNOs. I know that there is a sort of public consultation that could be, I don't know, the German model as one among the options. So I was wondering if this could be a positive development for you, especially in light of accelerating demand for hosting on your network.

And the third question is related to this. I was wondering if it's more likely in your opinion that MNOs in order to launch the 5G stand-alone could be more interested in sort of RAN sharing rather than, let's say, extending your perimeter, so RAN as a Service. I don't know -- or the mix of the 2. I don't know if these are 2 alternative options or there could be a sort of mixed approach.

[Diego Galli, executive]

Thank you, Giorgio. On the first one, fixed wireless access, as Emilia said, overall in the OLO and also in fixed wireless access, there was a good start of the year, both the quarters in general from our different customers. So let's see how the year and the quarters will progress. But let me say a good start and a slight improvement compared to the past overall from the different customers.

Let me also clarify that the anchor tenants actually for fixed wireless access is not a revenue potential for us because the service is included in the MSA fees. So when we talk about fixed wireless access for us, it's basically Open Fiber, EOLO. Those are the customers.

On the licenses, yes, as we shared, clearly, the industry is still under pressure in terms of return and cash flow generation. So actions and initiatives, which may improve the sustainability of the returns of the industry are a positive for the industry, and therefore, are a positive for investments and therefore are a potential positive for us.

So the German models for the licenses, in our view, make sense in supporting the industry to be more sustainable and to accelerate on the investments which are needed to catch up on 5G and digitalization. And as we said, there is a strong need in the market.

On the third one, yes, the -- as I shared before, the RAN and RAN sharing and RAN as a Service, actually, there are different models. The RAN as a Service provided by a tower company is not a model, which is established in the industry. The operators across the world do generally prefer to make direct agreements of RAN sharing between themselves. And that makes sense, of course, [ anyway ] creates synergies and efficiency.

At the same time, we believe that over time, there is a space for the tower company to play a role, as I said, both from a financial point of view, differentiating the financial modeling and putting on the table our ability to invest and to bear long-term returns. But also makes sense from an industrial point of view where there can be created synergies and allow operational plans from the operators with a higher degree of flexibility. So to increase the rate of, let me say, the chance of success of these kind of programs.

[Operator]

Next question is a follow-up from Paul Sidney, Berenberg.

[Paul Sidney, analyst]

I just wonder if I could have a second question, please. Just very high level, you've obviously given very granular guidance out to 2030, really reinforces the strong visibility you have in the business.

But I just wondered if you could outline what would be the 2 or 3 most material drivers of INWIT hitting the top and bottom of the revenue and free cash flow guidance? What are those sort of 2 or 3 most important things?

[Diego Galli, executive]

Yes. Clearly, a significant bit of the -- significant part of the guidance is already committed. Basically 1/3 of the growth comes from inflation, 1/3 comes from new PoPs and 1/3 from smart infrastructure. The growth drivers are related to the development of -- and the opportunity to go further and beyond the guidance related to the development of the industry and the acceleration of the investment cycles needed to again bring Italy back to the standards in terms of 5G.

And this means basically densification both outdoor through macro towers, potentially over time outdoor also through small cell and densification indoor where there are thousands of locations, which deserves already today a better coverage and with 5G will be even more needed.

So in a scenario where the market and the industry becomes more sustainable, the operators may invest more in the needed densification. This will trigger -- these are the key growth drivers -- is the key growth driver and the key dynamic underpinning our plan.

[Operator]

Mr. Ruffini, there are no more questions registered at this time.

[Fabio Ruffini, executive]

Thank you, everyone, for connecting, and have a good day.

[Diego Galli, executive]

Thank you.

[Emilia Trudu, executive]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over. You may disconnect your telephones.