Aemetis Inc

NASDAQ:AMTX

Q3-2025 Earnings Call

[Operator]

Welcome to the Aemetis Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Review Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

Joining us on today's call are Eric McAfee, the Chairman and CEO of Aimetis, Andy Foster, the President of Aemetis Advanced Fuels and Todd Waltz, the Chief Financial Officer of Aemetis. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Mr. Todd Waltz, the Executive President and Chief Financial Officer of Aemetis, Inc. Mr. Waltz, you may begin.

[Todd Waltz, executive]

Thank you, Matthew and welcome, everyone. Before we begin, I'd like to remind everyone that during this call, we'll be making forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are based on our current expectations and beliefs, and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such statements. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, those factors discussed in our earnings release issued today and in our most recent Form 10-K and 10-Q filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. under the caption of Risk Factors and Management Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operation as well as in our other filings with the SEC.

We undertake no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future developments or otherwise, except as required by law. Please refer to our earnings release and our SEC filings for a more detailed discussion of the risks and uncertainties. Full financial details can be found in our third quarter 2025 earnings release and the Form 10-Q available on the Aemetis website and EDGAR.

I'll briefly highlight the key items. Revenues were $59.2 million, up by approximately $7 million from the second quarter of 2025. primarily due to the fulfillment of biodiesels with oil marketing companies in India and stronger performance from ethanol production and sales pricing. In California, we saw production rate of 14.7 million gallons as margins allowed for higher grind rates. California Dairy Natural Gas recognized $4 million of revenue from 12 operating digesters during Q3, using the CARB-approved LCFS pathway for 7 of the digesters. As we'll discuss later, Section 45 tax credits from the production of dairy renewable natural gas were not included in the third quarter since our recognition is based upon when credits are sold. India Biofuels posted $14.5 million of revenues, a new India CFO with IPO experience, joined the company during the third quarter. continuing to build out the management team to target a public listing in 2026.

Operating loss improved sequentially on higher volumes and lower SG&A. Interest expense remained steady at around $13 million during the quarter. Cash at quarter end was $5.6 million after making $4.1 million of investments in the carbon intensity reduction and dairy renewable natural gas production expansion during the quarter. We expect multiple income streams from India, LCFS credits and federal tax incentives to ramp up during the fourth quarter, positioning us for a strong exit to the year 2025 and increase income streams during 2026 as the projects are completed. With that,

I'll turn the call over to Eric McAfee, Chairman and CEO of Aemetis. Eric?

[Eric McAfee, executive]

Thank you, Todd. I'll start with the business segment update, followed by updates on future projects and a regulatory update. In our dairy RNG business, we significantly increased biogas production capacity at the end of the third quarter with a new multi-dairy digester coming online in September that increased RNG production capacity by more than 30%. As planned, we expect to reach more than 500,000 MMBtus of renewable natural gas production capacity by the end of this year and grow to a 1 million MMBtu annual run rate by the end of 2026. We are now operating or building digesters to process waste from 18 dairies, funded by $50 million of USDA guaranteed financing with 20-year repayment terms and attractive interest rates as well as equity and revenues from operations. Seven of our dairy digester low carbon fuel standard pathways were approved by the California Air Resources Board during the second quarter of this year at an average negative 384 carbon intensity score.

These pathway approvals increased our LCFS credit revenue by 160% for these dairies starting in the third quarter of this year. compared to dairy digesters with a negative 150 default pathway score while pathways are pending approval. Four more LCFS pathways are currently under review at CARB and are expected to be approved under the fast Tier 1 pathway process that was adopted by CARB in the July 2025 extension of the LCFS program. Additionally, these dairy RNG facilities qualify for Federal Section 48 investment tax credits. To date, we have sold $83 million in investment tax credits related to our RNG facilities and received more than $70 million in cash. Since January 1, 2025, we've been generating transferable Section 45 Z production tax credits, but we do not show the cash received from these credits in our financial reports until the 45 credits are sold. Currently, we have $12 million of investment tax credits and $10 million of 45 Z production tax credits in the sale process. Please note a significant upside.

The Department of Energy has not issued the updated 45 Z spreadsheet that allows the correct calculation for dairy RNG. So the amount of 45 Z income is expected to increase significantly when the DOE issues the updated calculation. This DOE update could occur at any time, but is definitely expected for the implementation of the One Big Beautiful Bill in January 2026. We allowing us to generate and sell additional 45 Z production tax credits for year 2025, if the calculation correctly utilizes the greenhouse reduction model to comply with law. Collectively, molecule revenues, LCFS credit sales, D3 RIN sales and the sale of 45Z production tax credits are expected to generate strong positive cash flow from operations in the fourth quarter of this year. and expanding operating cash flow in 2026 as new dairy RNG production comes online, 45Z calculations are issued by the Department of Energy and LCFS credit prices continue to rise.

At our ethanol plant, our fully financed $30 million mechanical vapor recommission system is completing the equipment fabrication and is planned to begin on-site construction in Q4 of this year for completion in Q2 of 2026. We are very pleased with the professionalism and expertise of the team at the NPL subsidiary of Century that is providing construction management and other support for the project. We have been awarded about $20 million in grants and Federal Section 48C tax credits to fund the MBR system. The MBR project is expected to reduce natural gas use by 80% and and add an estimated $32 million in annual cash flow starting in mid-2026. Ethanol pricing has improved since earlier this year as lower corn prices improved margins. The legislative approval of 15% ethanol blending in California last month is expected to increase demand for ethanol by more than 600 million gallons per year, equal to about 10 of our ethanol plants, which is expected to support pricing and drive demand for more ethanol production nationwide.

We had decreased production during the spring of 2025 in order to optimize ethanol margins, but increased ethanol production during Q3 and continued in Q4 support ethanol demand and to participate in higher margins. In India, we resumed biodiesel deliveries to government oil marketing companies in April of this year following a 6-month pause in OMC purchasing. We are targeting an IPO of our India subsidiary in early 2026, and recently appointed a new Chief Financial Officer at our India subsidiary to lead the process. We are also actively seeking to expand into biogas and ethanol production in India, which are strongly supported by government policies and pricing. Let's look at our future projects. For our sustainable aviation fuel and renewable diesel project, we have received the authority to construct air permits and conditional use permit for our 90 million-gallon per year SAF diesel facility at the Riverbank site in California, When operated solely for SAF capacity will be approximately 78 million gallons per year. We are in active discussions on financing structures and are awaiting further clarity on the 45Z production tax credit and biofuel mandates to support project financing.

For our carbon capture project at our Ribrag site, we have completed initial site work and conductor installation for our geologic characterization well. The data we obtained from the next phase of drilling will support our Class VI CO2 sequestration permit application. Once permitted, the site is expected to sequester up to 1.4 million tons of CO2 per year. Our River Bank, California site near Modesto, is a 125-acre former U.S. Army ammunition production facility with 710,000 square feet of existing buildings, including 7 production lines that are more than 600 feet long, 45 feet wide and about 30 feet tall. A 20-megawatt on-site power substation, connected by an on-site high-capacity power line to the 350-megawatt etch hedge hydroelectric power station and on-site high-capacity natural gas pipeline and 2 fiber data links already at the site. The CO2 sequestration at the site is planned to generate revenues while decreasing carbon intensity of electricity produced from natural gas, such as fuel cells, which produce a pure form of CO2 compared to gas turbines.

Our dairy RNG is also available via a utility pipeline to reduce the carbon intensity of the electricity produced from natural gas at the site. In addition to our recent expansion of tenants at the Riverbank site, including a new facility built by a recycling company from England to extract precious metals from electronics, we are currently negotiating agreements to utilize the unique capabilities of the Riverbank site to provide lower emissions, lower cost and lower carbon intensity power and other infrastructure to users. Let's review some regulatory events that support a strong growth outlook for Aemetis and the biofuels and biogas industries. Aemetis is positioned to benefit from a range of federal and state policies that directly enhance the value of its low-carbon biofuel and biogas operations. The California Low Carbon Fuel Standards, amendments adopted by CARB to establish a 20-year framework for reducing transportation fuel emissions became effective on July 1 of this year.

In response, LCFS credit prices rose by more than $0.25 since -- I'm sorry, 25% since this summer and are expected to continue to increase as credit supply tightens and credit demand increases. We expect further strengthening for the foreseeable future to the current LCFS credit price up to the cap of $268 that continues to increase each year. The total renewable fuel standard. The sale of renewable natural gaps qualifies for D3 RINs, I think about $19 per MMBtu in value at base prices. Section 45Z production tax credits. Effective January 1, 2025, the new federal Section 45Z transferable tax credit support low emission ethanol and RNG production. Aemetis is currently applying treasury guidance to calculate market these credits for both our plant ethanol production and our RNG sales with additional clarification from the DOE and treasury expected later this year.

In addition to any further clarification in 2025, the Section 45Z credits will increase in 2026 and under the recent One Big Beautiful Bill, which removes indirect land use from the ethanol plant calculation and requires dairy specific carbon intensity scores for RNG. This will more than double the 45Z credits in 2026 for each business even with no further changes to the current treasury guidance. Section 48 investment tax credits. Aemetis received $19 million in cash proceeds in Q1 2025 from the sale of solar and biogas related ITCs. We expect additional sales of both investment and production tax credits in Q4 2025 and and in Q1 2026 for the balance of 2025 production tax credits, plus additional sales of both PTCs and ITCs for the next 4 years, E15 ethanol blend expansion. In California, the recent E15 approval of 15% ethanol plant should decrease fuel prices at the pump by $2.7 billion per year when fully adopted according to a UC Berkeley study, while increasing the ethanol market by more than 600 million gallons per year.

The U.S. EPA has approved temporary summer use of 15% ethanol in 49 states and new legislation is advancing to allow year-round use, including the match in California. E15 approval in all 50 states would expand the potential U.S. ethanol market by more than 6 billion gallons per year from the current 14 billion gallons per year, while lowering fuel prices for consumers. With legislation passed at the federal and state level, we are now in the slow process of regulatory adoption of these policies with the 45Z production tax credit, 15% ethanol blending and the significantly increased demand for LCFS credits as primary examples of supportive policies that will increase revenues and/or cash flow from operations starting in the fourth quarter of this year.

We are very pleased with the price on our projects as well as California and federal policies made during year 2025 to date and believe that Aemetis is positioned for significant growth in revenues and improved cash flow through year-end and throughout 2026. Our India IPO continues to expand the opportunities in India to diversify our business and attract new investors into a large growing market. Our new projects at the Riverbank site are exciting and to a large extent, unexpected in their size and potential for a positive financial impact starting in 2026.

Now let's take some questions from our call participants. Matthew?

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Your first question is coming from Matthew Blair from TPH.

[Matthew Blair, analyst]

Great. I had 2 questions on the ethanol segment in the quarter. The first is it does look like your corn costs came down quarter-over-quarter, but they're a little bit higher than our modeling. So could you talk about any sort of issues with basis? Like were there any challenges there? And overall, what kind of ethanol EBITDA did you generate in the third quarter. And then second, regarding the opportunities around California E15. It sounds like there's a lot of upside. I think you mentioned 600 million gallons a year of incremental ethanol demand in the state. But this depends on retailers offering E15 instead of E10. So maybe could you talk about whether that will actually happen, whether retailers will indeed switch over to E15 and what are the mechanics there?

[Eric McAfee, executive]

Certainly. Thanks, Matt. We appreciate all your work. Ethanol corn -- ethanol industry in general benefited from lower corn costs as corn volumes this year were substantial. And because of sort of global supply-demand balance, we have excess corn here in the United States. We do have transportation that delivers it to California transformation actually gave us a slight benefit during the quarter as well. So lower corn costs and attractive -- relatively attractive, I should say, rail, were benefits. Corn basis did have an effect of offsetting it a bit as corn farmers were reacting to low corn prices and they held the corn in their bin rather than releasing the market. So although the spot prices on NYMEX appeared to give you 1 number, the actual physicals of prompt delivery had a benefit to farmers as they held back. And that's probably where your model was slightly different than the market was the corn base has moved around quite a bit during the third quarter.

We don't have a business that's designed to be the low-cost corn feedstock plant because of the demand for ethanol in California. Actually, it's cheaper to move ethanol in the California than it is to move corn. So we actually see it as a disadvantage of our model is that we have higher corn costs and we have higher power costs in California. But we also have a decarbonized grid in California. California has a commitment to a 0 carbon intensity grid driven by solar and wind and hydroelectric and nuclear and we have that as a sustainable benefit. So we have changed our operational strategy at the ethanol plant to change from petrol natural gas feedstock and convert, as we know, with mechanical vapor compression to almost completely removing using any petroleum natural gas in our plant. That decreases our carbon intensity significantly decrease our cost of energy completely and takes advantage of the fact we're physically in a market where low carbon intensity electricity can offset the higher corn cost of the Midwestern supply chain.

We also have completed a $12 million solar project on site, of course, that solar energy. 0 CI, again, and we have carbon negative dairy natural gas directly connected to our ethanol lab. I haven't done a count on this, but us and the 1 other ethanol producer in California, I think, are among the few dairy RNG projects in United States that actually can monetize through the 45Z ethanol molecule rather than having to fill trucks. So that direct connect to our ethanol plant, which is required, there's no book and claim in this business to be able to calculate for ethanol, is a unique opportunity that we expect to use more in 2026 than we're currently using. But it buffers us from the absolute necessity of having to have trucks to consume R&D. So for a variety of reasons, we think that our plant is a distinctive competencies that will be sustainable over a long span of time, and we'll overcome our corn and rail cost disadvantage.

So we'll be talking about this more over the course of the next 2 quarters. as our MDR is adopted and try to provide more clarity about how we believe we'll have a sustainable margin advantage over pretty much any other producers in the U.S. Second one is E15 in California. The $0.20 per gallon is just a competitive advantage for anybody that uses E15. And the legislature stepped in to adopt E15 permanently October 2 when it was signed by the governor. And that's because California prices are completely out of control, 17% of oil refining capacity for gasoline will be going offline in the next 12 months. and market demand is increasing. Certainly, it's not decreasing as people had projected as electric vehicles would be adopted and the cancellation of the $7,500 federal tax credit electrical vehicles has reduced electric vehicle sales by 50% in the last month according to national statistics.

So California is going to require a lot of gasoline for a long time. And ethanol is really the only way to reduce the cost of the gasoline. All the other factors are increasing the cost of gasoline. So we anticipate that retailers -- sorry, largely with independent retailers and the truck stops, the travel stops national chains who are already structured with their infrastructure to be able to get this increased margin by a rapid adoption of E15. We think the competitive environment will cause pretty much every retailer to adopt E15 as rapidly as they can. Otherwise, the guys across the street or down the street will be getting their customers from them with a $0.20 cost advantage.

[Operator]

Your next question is coming from Derek Whitfield from Texas Capital.

[Unknown Analyst]

For my first question, I wanted to start with the top-down look at your business. As you think about the impact, the inflection in the credit markets will have on your U.S. RNG and ethanol business, and the IPO of our India Biofuels business, could you paint the picture for your EBITDA profile net to Aemetis in 2026? And how this could lead to improved access to lower cost capital and allow you to pay off some of your Third Eye credit facilities and notes.

[Eric McAfee, executive]

Yes. That's a very good top-down because you actually hit what I believe will be the biggest business opportunity that we're pursuing right now. We are in the middle of a refinance of our most expensive debt. Third Eve Capital has some very inexpensive debt, about $118 million at an effective interest rate of about 5.1%. But we also have a chunk of debt with them that is pretty expensive. And so we are in the process of negotiating the refinance of that expensive debt, supported by the 45Z production tax credit revenue, which we've been generating since January. It hasn't shown on our financial projections yet. But as we monetize this into cash the favorable impact of that over the next 4 years is resulting in our ability to refinance our gross expensive debt. I do not anticipate that's going to close this quarter. I think it's a first half 20206 event as lenders get comfortable with the ongoing nature of our 45Z sales. But we do anticipate we'll be doing sort of 45Z sales on a quarterly basis.

We have multiple buyers that want to cite sign up with multiyear offtakes for our 45Z production tax credits. And we have existing buyers of our investment tax credits that have already told us they want to buy all of our 2026 ITCs and for the foreseeable future. And that particular buyer has capacity that can take whatever we need to offtake to them. So I think the investment committee -- community as well as the lender community will see this ongoing quarterly flow of 45Z production tax credits for both biogas as well as ethanol and a steady drumbeat of ITC sales that are in federal law now can continue on for the next 4 years at least. And personally having been in Washington, D.C. a lot. I think we've got 2031 to 2035. So we have up to a 9-year span of the 45Z activity continuing on. So I'm anticipating to see a refinance of that expensive debt as the fundamental quarterly profitability of the company becomes much more clear.

[Unknown Analyst]

Terrific. And as my follow-up, Eric, I just wanted to touch on the government shutdown and get your thoughts on expectations just around when we'll get final RVO and 45Z policy and also ask if you think the administration is receptive to increasing the D3/D7 RVO given the strength of recent regeneration reports.

[Eric McAfee, executive]

Let's talk RVO for a second. RVO is a fight between the oil industry and the ethanol industry with independent oil refiners being very successful in their strategies of walking away from RVO obligation just last week, CVR run by Karl Icon, was able to benefit to $488 million of avoidance of buying the obligated party RINs that they were obligated to buy. And their strategy historically has been just don't buy them. then complained to the government or declare bankruptcy or do whatever you're going to do to avoid them. And they've been very successful with that strategy and just received another $0.5 billion from the biofuels industry. from that kind of behavior.

Now in my view, the large integrated oil refineries, certainly Valero is at the top of that list are on both sides of the equation. They're suffering when the D4 or D5 doesn't reflect the actual market value because they operate the largest renewable diesel assets in U.S., P66, Marathon, Valero, I'd even put Montana refining on that list. Our traditional refiners that have migrated into renewable diesel and have interests that are very substantial in the success of the renewable diesel business. And so I think the Trump administration has a problem. And that problem is that the political cost of ignoring farmers hits about 28 states where the U.S. have been literally have to have the corn and soybean vote. And you don't get a corn and soybean vote when you are supporting oil refiners and trashing the renewable volume obligation with waivers. So I hate to tell you, but I cannot really handicap this one well. I've spent over a dozen trips to Washington, D.C.

There's a very strong support for the RVO among the 28 ag state and the 56 senators from those states. I think what we're seeing here, unfortunately, is there are other issues that are more important to the administration, both domestic and foreign issues that they've been spending time thinking about and that the events of yesterday or day before yesterday, the Democratic wins across slate are going to bring back into clarity, the need for the votes of Midwestern corn and soybean states. And I think that -- I hate to say it this way, but the Democratic sweep, including Proposition 50 in California is a wake-up call for Republicans to pay attention to domestic policy including energy prices, which kind of drove a couple of governors into their seats by declaring on utility prices. So I think RVO will suddenly become a much more interesting topic because of the Democratic those that happened this week. It's strange, but it's all politics and that had a real wake-up call. And I hope that senators we talk to you directly will be more effective now with the White House.

Regarding 45Z, the Department of Energy has been focused on the January 1, 2026 adoption of the One Big Beautiful Bill. There's been no real appetite to take up except for the fact that the industry is making a tremendous amount of noise about the need for 2025 calculations to be completed. And we have really until September '15 to 2026 to get that done and continue to be very organized as an industry to have the political and regulatory support of the DOE finally gets around to doing what they should have done in January 2025. But the new leadership at the DOE is still not in place. Audrey Robertson, the Head of [indiscernible] still isn't in her job. And so the response we get from many regulatory agencies is that the person who's in charge of making decision is still pending Senate approval and we should all just be patient and understand that politics takes time. So we're sitting here in November with something that should have been adopted in January under previous administration.

I do think it will get figured out. I do think that there's a range of outcomes, some of which I'm pleased with, and many of which I'm not. But we, as an industry, are United to getting the 45Z grid model to reflect the overall grid model and not be manipulated, which is what had happened in January of the artificially negative 51%. So I have a lot of confidence in the industry is United on the 45z topic, our company has a tremendous -- I mean, tens of millions of dollars of additional tax credits in year 2025, that are waiting for this calculation to come out. So there will be some upside. I just don't know whether it's going to impact 2025 or we're going to have to wait until January 2026 to start seeing the actual calculation.

[Unknown Analyst]

Eric, just maybe to follow up on 1 point of the question. Just on the day 7 RVO, do you think there's an appetite to increase that just given the strength of recent regeneration reports, which would suggest the market slightly oversupplied.

[Eric McAfee, executive]

The market is clearly oversupplied. There is a broad need to answer the soybean farmers need to sell soybean oil and the corn farmers need to sell corn oil. And right now, I think that's -- the only real solution to that is to increase biofuels markets, both ethanol, which takes corn starch, as well as renewable diesel and even potentially SAF. There's a movement to go back to the $1.75 under a new tax bill for SAF. So I think the pendulum swung against the corn farmer and soybean farmer during the middle of 2025. and there has not been enough of a reaction by the federal government. And direct subsidies are 1 reaction, another reaction is simply create new markets. And so a domestic market of biofuels for D4NS and D5S which are largely -- renewable diesel in SAF as well as D6, which is ethanol are clear needs. What I personally focusing on is the D3. The D3 cannot be replaced by anyone of the other molecules. And so you end up with a cellulosic waiver credit is really the only solution to over mandating D3s. And the message I would like the industry to communicate is that the RVO should start with a very strong so that you don't have an overflow of D3 in the D4s and then D4s and the D5s and D5s and D6s because that's the weakness of the RVO.

If you don't start with a strong D3, essentially overshooting what dairy RNG producers are going to achieve than whatever you mandate for D4 and D5 are going to get reduced, and that's going to be upsetting to a lot of soybean farmers. And then D6 is upsetting to a lot of corn farmers. So it's a very simple solution to a very large problem, which is how do you take care of 160 million acres of U.S. farmland that produces only 2 crops, corn and soybean, and that is increase of biofuels market demand by having a stronger RVO starting with the D3 RIN. So this is a message we've been taking as an industry. I serve on the Board of the renewable fuel association representing corn the ethanol industry, but also the RNG coalition representing the dairy RNG and other RNG producers. And I think the biofuels industry has done an excellent job of making the case. But the the administration's attention it's been elsewhere, and they've solved some very big issues in the Middle East and elsewhere. And now I think they're going to have to snap their head back to paying attention to domestic industry and this is a big one. The RVO strengthening is a really big opportunity they have to help 60 million acres in 28 states.

[Operator]

Your next question is coming from Amit Dayal from H.C. Wainwright.

[Amit Dayal, analyst]

So Eric, I think there were expectations that some of these 45Z tax credits would be monetized in third quarter. Was there any push out? And then going forward, I know you are trying to make this a bit more consistent in the future. But what are the sort of steps that are being taken to make that come to fruition?

[Eric McAfee, executive]

There are the actual physical things to happen in the third quarter that caused this delay in the fourth quarter, specifically the expansion of production capacity by about 30% happened in the middle of September. So we literally had 11 days to sell ITCs if we're going to do it in the second quarter. And because you have to do a cost action and insurance policy much other things, that's just really not possible. So it was the completion of the project and the in-service date that drove the ITCs to the fourth quarter. On 45Z, it's much easier for us to sell larger volumes. And if the DOE calculation would come out, and it was the right number, we'd have almost $40 million of 45Z to sell for 2025. And selling a part and then later selling more have some technical complications to it. It's not impossible, but it's just -- it's difficult and it's a pain in the rear. .

So we've been trying to sell the correct number the first time rather than go back and doing it twice. And that has caused us to be reluctant to sell the smaller numbers. I mentioned $10 million of 45Z with a sale in the fourth quarter, it should be $40 million for the year. So it's unfortunate, but that's where we are. And the government shutdown, I think, was the final nail on the coffin that caused us to conclude that we should just go forward. And when we get more tax credits later for 2025, we'll just sell them later. It's disappointing, but that's what's happening in the world, and that's what we're going to do.

[Amit Dayal, analyst]

Understood. With respect to the India IPO, I mean, it looks like you are close enough now in the first quarter, 26% is not too far. Any high-level sort of indications for maybe investors in terms of what you think the valuation range could be for that business? And how much you are looking to sort of retain and how much you might offload?

[Eric McAfee, executive]

I'll answer the second question first. We're looking to sell between 20% and 25% of the subsidiary. So we retain ownership of more than 75% of we still be consolidated revenues and cost of goods sold and everything else into our financial statements. And this show a minority interest in other income as we declare what our earnings are the valuation, which will drive how much capital we can raise is it's a wide gap because we're expanding our footprint in India pretty significantly. So over the course of the next quarter, we expect to be finalizing what the valuation looks like. And certainly, by the end of the first quarter, we're looking to have a number that we could report that we're pretty solid on. But as of right now, it's a fairly wide band, anywhere from $100 million to $200 million would be the range we're looking for. If I can expand it to $300 million, I can assure you that we have a business opportunity that would justify that kind of support for the company, and we're going to push for that as much as possible. So if we can sell 20%, 25% of the company for $300 million, we absolutely will. And the business expansion we have in India, I think, supports that kind of valuation. We're just looking to see whether the market is in agreement with us about the exciting growth opportunities we have in India.

[Amit Dayal, analyst]

Just last one, the $266 million in debt issuing us current. A little bit of an overhang on the stock, it feels like I know you are working on it, but is there maybe an update on the time line by when you think this could get negotiated and done?

[Eric McAfee, executive]

The refinancing is in process. The 45Z revenues is what's really delayed that process. We're looking for 45Z to be a quarterly predictable drum beat of after-tax cash and income to the company that will go on for the next 4 years and probably for the next 7 or 8 years because of where these things get extended. And so that was supposed to start -- supposed to have started January of 2025. But as we have learned, the treasury upon departing with the prior administration throughout an artificial number of negative 51 carbon intensity. Our California carbon intensity is negative 384. So the current calculation does not allow us to generate about 90% of the revenue from 45Z. And that has delayed our refinancing, let's call it, completion as we've had to say to the lenders, okay, guys, it's in process. This is what the loss is, but we don't have the calculation yet. We have legislation. We have regulation. We don't have the DOE calculation. And so when we drop in the DB calculation, I think since we have good solid offtakes, 45Z as well as ITCs, I think our business becomes much more understandable and predictable as we start showing those revenues on a quarterly basis. And that drives the refinancing.

[Operator]

Your next question is coming from Dan Storms from Stonegate.

[Unknown Analyst]

Just to start -- I want to start with the dairy digesters right now, it looks like you sold about 114,000 MMBTUs in the quarter. On an annualized run rate basis, that's a little shy of the $550,000 goal you have set for the end of the year. I guess my question is, what will it take to get the run rate up to that number? I know there's a typical seasonality as the winter slows that down. Is there anything else we should be keeping in mind here?

[Eric McAfee, executive]

The 30% production capacity increase that I discussed happened 11 days from the end of the first -- of the third quarter. So it did not have a significant impact on the 90 days of the third quarter. And so that's a primary driver of what we're doing here in the fourth quarter to exit with a higher capacity. We also have multiple digesters under construction right now. And so it's an overlapping process where we're building additional digesters at the same times we're completing the in-service dates for existing digesters.

[Unknown Analyst]

Understood. That's very helpful. And then turning to the India plant you mentioned now that you bring online biogas and ethanol production there. I guess what are the logistics to getting that up and running and any time lines we should have in our mind?

[Eric McAfee, executive]

Yes. There's 2 things in India. Number 1 is we have an 80 million-gallon plant that's fully operational and fully maintained, ready to do 80 million gallons a year and the oil marketing company tender process continues along. We have a tendering process right now. It's publicly available to everybody. We should be able to announce our allocation from that as quickly as next week then that would be for the next 4 months. We expect, however, that there is some policy enforcement by the India government that is being brought to fruition. There's a just a piece of litigation at the Supreme Court that this month, the government is having to justify where they haven't adopted a penalty for diesel gallons that do not have biodiesel. And this was a penalty that was passed in legislation a couple of years ago, but they've been postponing it several times and have not quite adopted it yet. So that litigation is for the enforcement of that penalty. Virtually every gallon of diesel in the country will have biodiesel in it if the Sureme Court determines the enforcement of that legislation is going to have to start.

So there's also some contracts that were issued to us, $58 million, had about $18 million profit in it. that the oil marketing companies because the tariff was changed by the government determined they would not perform in of those contracts. It's a contract breach by the oil marketing companies, that is a part of that legislation. So we are targeting a resolution of the government's position and maybe some strengthening in the tenders as well as perhaps a resolution in this contract allocation that we received. And if we can get 1 or both of those, that's going to be very strongly positive for our biodiesel business and really timed well for the IPO. Our diversification into the other businesses will include at least 1 acquisition of an operating facility and for a variety of reasons, we're extremely well positioned there.

So we'll see some transactions happening either prior to or at the time of IPO driving us into these new lines of business. We have a very talented management team and an extremely talented CEO and extremely talented CFO and looking forward to that team continue to build an exciting business in India that, by the way, is diversified. It's more have lines of business that might be differentiated from the parent company because they're responding to the needs in the India market, which is an expanding market, all by itself.

[Operator]

Your next question is coming from Ed Woo from [indiscernible].

[Unknown Analyst]

Congratulations on all the progress. And also on the India IPO as is progressing for a possible IPO next year, have you given further thought on what you're going to do with the proceeds, either take it back to the U.S. and use that as part of your refinancing plan? Or will it be stated in India to develop these new business lines that you are talking about?

[Eric McAfee, executive]

A portion of the IPO proceeds are definitely planned to be utilized in the U.S. And if we have not completed the U.S. refinancing, I can assure you we'll be a part of that. But the process we have currently is a refinancing without India IPO funds included. It just makes it easier, of course, at the amount we're financing smaller. We are anticipating that the India IPO would also provide substantial growth funding in India, essentially fully funding a very strong revenue increase. And because of our intention of having 75% of more owenership by the parent company, all those revenues would drive top level growth in the United States. So we expect the refinancing as well as top level and bottom line growth to come from India.

[Unknown Analyst]

That sounds good. And just a clarification again. India doesn't have any debt right now, right?

[Eric McAfee, executive]

That is correct, yes modifies the inventory prepaid for the inventory.

[Operator]

We have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. I will now turn the call over to management for closing remarks.

[Eric McAfee, executive]

Thank you to Aemetis stockholders, stock analysts and others for joining us today. We look forward to talking with you about participating in the growth opportunities at Aemetis. Todd?

[Todd Waltz, executive]

Thank you for attending today's Aemetis earnings conference call. Please visit the Investors section of the Aemetis website where we will post a written version and an audio version of this Aemetis earnings review and business update. Matthew?

[Operator]

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.