GL Tech Co Ltd
SZSE:300480
GL Tech Co Ltd
SZSE:300480
Price:
30.39
CNY
-3.52%
Market Closed
Market Cap:
¥10.7B
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DCF Value
DCF Value of one
NFLX
share under the base-case scenario is
358.99
USD.
Compared to the current market price of 935.52 USD, the stock is
Overvalued by 43%.
Base-case scenario assumes average annual revenue growth of 8% over the next 5 years, with operating margin gradually improving to 22% by the final year. Terminal growth rate is set at 2%, and the discount rate applied is 9%.
Revenue Growth
5%
Operating Margin
18% 22%
Discount Rate
9%
DCF Value
24.2
CNY
Overvaluation 20%
Entry Points by Margin of Safety:
0% MoS
Buy Price:
$358.99
vs Market:
1 081%
10% MoS
Buy Price:
$323.09
vs Market:
963%
20% MoS
Buy Price:
$287.19
vs Market:
845%
30% MoS
Buy Price:
$251.29
vs Market:
727%
40% MoS
Buy Price:
$215.39
vs Market:
609%
50% MoS
Buy Price:
$179.5
vs Market:
491%
DCF Valuation
GL Tech Co Ltd Valuation
Updated Mar 22, 2026
Overvaluation
DCF Value
122.74
Price
222.78
Key Assumptions:
Forecasting Business Performance
How will GL Tech Co Ltd perform in the coming years?
Operating Income
=
$88B
Revenue
–
$280B
Expenses
$192B
Deriving Free Cash Flow
How much real cash is GL Tech Co Ltd expected to generate each year?
$88B
Operating Income
for next 5 years
$68B
Free Cash Flow
for next 5 years
Free Cash Flow
=
$68B
Operating Income
+
$88B
D&A
+
$6.5B
SBC
–
$6.5B
CapEx
–
$6.5B
Change in Working Capital
$6.5B
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Income | 13B | 16B | 18B | 20B | 21B | 88B |
| + Depreciation & Amortization | 1.1B | 1.2B | 1.3B | 1.4B | 1.5B | 6.5B |
| + Stock-Based Compensation | 1.1B | 1.2B | 1.3B | 1.4B | 1.5B | 6.5B |
| - Capital Expenditures | 1.1B | 1.2B | 1.3B | 1.4B | 1.5B | 6.5B |
| - Change in Working Capital | 1.1B | 1.2B | 1.3B | 1.4B | 1.5B | 6.5B |
| = Free Cash Flow | 9B | 12B | 14B | 16B | 17B | 68B |
Discounting Free Cash Flow
Converting future cash flows into today’s value
$68B
Free Cash Flow
for next 5 years
$43.6B
Discounted FCF
for next 5 years
Discounted FCF
=
$43.6B
Free Cash Flow
–
$68B
Time & Risk Cost
24.4B
| 1 Year | 2 Years | 3 Years | 4 Years | 5 Years | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Cash Flow | $9B | $12B | $14B | $16B | $17B |
| Discounted Free Cash Flow | $8.2B | $9.6B | $9.7B | $8.8B | $7.3B |
| What Is Today's $1 Worth? | $0.91 | $0.80 | $0.69 | $0.55 | $0.43 |
Calculating Terminal Value
Estimating value beyond forecast period
Computing Enterprise Value
Estimating value beyond forecast period
$330B
Enterprise Value
Enterprise Value
=
$330B
Discounted FCF
+
$43.6B
Terminal Value
$286.4B
Value Decomposition
Terminal Value
86%
Discounted FCF
14%
Forecast Period:
Revenue Growth:
Operating Margin:
D&A as % of Revenue:
SBC as % of Revenue:
CapEx as % of Revenue:
Change in Working Capital:
Reverse DCF
Market Expectations:
Unrealistic
To justify the current price, Netflix Inc. must grow revenue by 36% annually over the next 5 years, which is outside the range of what's considered realistic.
| Revenue Growth Rate | DCF Value | |
|---|---|---|
|
Realistic Range
|
Realistic Low: 10%
|
$601.26
Overvalued by 45%
|
|
Historical: 21%
|
$758.26
Overvalued by 36%
|
|
|
Current DCF: 23%
|
$789.44
Overvalued by 32%
|
|
|
Wall Street: 24%
|
$831.32
Overvalued by 28%
|
|
|
Realistic High: 30%
|
$900.12
Overvalued by 12%
|
|
|
Implied by Price: 36%
|
$977.59
Matches Stock Price
|
Below current price
Above current price
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