Jilin Jlu Communication Design Institute Co Ltd
SZSE:300597
Decide at what price you'd be comfortable buying and we'll help you stay ready.
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Jilin Jlu Communication Design Institute Co Ltd
SZSE:300597
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CN |
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Shenzhen Chuangyitong Technology Co Ltd
SZSE:300991
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CN |
DCF Value
DCF Value of one
NFLX
share under the base-case scenario is
358.99
USD.
Compared to the current market price of 935.52 USD, the stock is
Overvalued by 43%.
Base-case scenario assumes average annual revenue growth of 8% over the next 5 years, with operating margin gradually improving to 22% by the final year. Terminal growth rate is set at 2%, and the discount rate applied is 9%.
DCF Valuation
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Income | 13B | 16B | 18B | 20B | 21B | 88B |
| + Depreciation & Amortization | 1.1B | 1.2B | 1.3B | 1.4B | 1.5B | 6.5B |
| + Stock-Based Compensation | 1.1B | 1.2B | 1.3B | 1.4B | 1.5B | 6.5B |
| - Capital Expenditures | 1.1B | 1.2B | 1.3B | 1.4B | 1.5B | 6.5B |
| - Change in Working Capital | 1.1B | 1.2B | 1.3B | 1.4B | 1.5B | 6.5B |
| = Free Cash Flow | 9B | 12B | 14B | 16B | 17B | 68B |
| 1 Year | 2 Years | 3 Years | 4 Years | 5 Years | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Cash Flow | $9B | $12B | $14B | $16B | $17B |
| Discounted Free Cash Flow | $8.2B | $9.6B | $9.7B | $8.8B | $7.3B |
| What Is Today's $1 Worth? | $0.91 | $0.80 | $0.69 | $0.55 | $0.43 |
Reverse DCF
To justify the current price, Netflix Inc. must grow revenue by 36% annually over the next 5 years, which is outside the range of what's considered realistic.
| Revenue Growth Rate | DCF Value | |
|---|---|---|
|
Realistic Range
|
Realistic Low: 10%
|
$601.26
Overvalued by 45%
|
|
Historical: 21%
|
$758.26
Overvalued by 36%
|
|
|
Current DCF: 23%
|
$789.44
Overvalued by 32%
|
|
|
Wall Street: 24%
|
$831.32
Overvalued by 28%
|
|
|
Realistic High: 30%
|
$900.12
Overvalued by 12%
|
|
|
Implied by Price: 36%
|
$977.59
Matches Stock Price
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