BHP Group Ltd
ASX:BHP
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BHP Group Ltd
ASX:BHP
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AU |
DCF Value
This DCF valuation model was created by
Alpha Spread
and was last updated on May 5, 2026.
Estimated DCF Value of one
BHP
stock is
36.72
AUD.
Compared to the current market price of 54.45 AUD, the stock is
Overvalued by 33%.
Present Value Calculation
This block is the starting point of the DCF valuation process. It calculates the present value of a company's forecasted cash flows based on selected operating model. Adjust key parameters like discount rate and terminal growth, and alter inputs such as revenue growth and margins to see their impact on valuation.
DCF Model
Base Case Scenario
Switching the operating model will discard any changes made to the current valuation.
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DCF Value Calculation
This stage translates the present value into DCF value per share. For firm valuation models, it adjusts present value for debt and assets to derive equity value (skipped if using equity valuation model). Finally, this equity value is divided by the number of shares to determine the DCF value per share.
Present Value to DCF Value
Capital Structure
| Present Value | 143.9B USD |
| + Cash & Equivalents | 13.5B USD |
| + Investments | 6B USD |
| Firm Value | 163.4B USD |
| - Debt | 24.6B USD |
| - Minority Interest | 5.1B USD |
| Equity Value | 133.8B USD |
| / Shares Outstanding | 5.1B |
| Value per Share | 26.33 USD |
| USD / AUD Exchange Rate | 1.3949 |
| BHP DCF Value | 36.72 AUD |
Valuation Analysis
Sensitivity Analysis
DCF Value Sensitivity Analysis
Sensitivity Analysis assesses how changes in key factors like revenue growth, margin, and discount rate affect a stock's DCF value. By visualizing various scenarios, from significant downturns to optimistic growth, this tool helps you understand potential valuation shifts, aiding in risk assessment and strategic decision-making.
DCF Financials
Financials used in DCF Calculation
What is the DCF value of one BHP stock?
Estimated DCF Value of one
BHP
stock is
36.72
AUD.
Compared to the current market price of 54.45 AUD, the stock is
Overvalued by 33%.
The true DCF Value lies somewhere between the worst-case and best-case scenario values. This is because the future is not predetermined, and the stock's DCF Value is based almost entirely on the future of the company. Knowing the full range of possible stock DCF values gives a complete picture of the investment risks and opportunities.
How was the DCF Value calculated?
1. Present Value Calculation.
Utilizing the DCF operating model, BHP Group Ltd's future cash flows are projected and then discounted using a chosen discount rate to determine its Present Value, which is calculated at
143.9B USD.
2. DCF Value Calculation. The company's capital structure is employed to derive the total Equity Value from the previously calculated Present Value of the cash flow. This Equity Value, when divided by the total number of outstanding shares, yields the DCF Value of 36.72 AUD per share.
