Ampol Ltd
ASX:ALD
Prices of ASX stocks are not being updated. The latest ALD price on Alpha Spread is from Oct 15, 2026. Financials, forecasts and intrinsic value keep updating.
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Ampol Ltd
ASX:ALD
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AU |
Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of Ampol Ltd (ALD) under the Base Case is 33 AUD per share.
Compared with the last price of 43 AUD on Oct 15, the stock appears
Overvalued by 23% .
The intrinsic value is calculated using the DCF method. The model assumes operating margin rises from 1.5% last year to 4.1% by 2031, above its five-year average of 2.6%. If operating margin stayed at its five-year average of 2.6%, the estimate would be about AU$5.68.
Do our valuations actually work? See backtest results .
Cheap or expensive for this stock?
This block shows whether today’s valuation is cheap or expensive compared with the stock’s own history, and what happened after similar valuations in the past.
We compare the gap between the stock’s price and our estimated value over time.
- Undervalued can still be historically expensive. The stock may trade below our estimated value, but usually offer an even bigger discount.
- Overvalued can still be historically cheap. The stock may trade above our estimated value, but usually carry an even higher premium.
Market expectations can differ from our model, which may not fully capture everything affecting the price. That is why some stocks regularly trade above our estimated value and others below it.
The scale and chart show how today’s valuation compares with the past. The cards summarize past returns and waiting times until the stock stopped being cheap or expensive. This can happen because the price changed, our estimated value changed, or both.
Only completed periods are included. These are past results, not forecasts. The usual historical range does not necessarily mean fair value.
Fundamental Analysis
What Ampol Does
Ampol Ltd is one of Australia’s biggest fuel and convenience businesses. It buys, stores, transports, and sells petrol, diesel, aviation fuel, lubricants, and related products through service stations, commercial fuel supply contracts, and bulk distribution channels. It also sells everyday convenience items in its retail stores.
- Headquarters
- Australia AU
- Employees
- 3 449
- IPO date
- Dec 31, 1980
Ampol has no economic moat
Ampol Ltd lacks an economic moat, leaving it vulnerable to competitive pressures and market challenges.
Read the full moat analysis
Earnings Waterfall
Ampol Ltd
The intrinsic value for Ampol Ltd (ALD) under the Base Case is 33 AUD.
Compared with the last price of 43 AUD on Oct 15, the stock appears Overvalued by 23% .