Chrysos Corp Ltd

ASX:C79

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q4

[Operator]

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Chrysos Corporation Limited Q4 Fiscal Year '23 Quarterly Update. [Operator Instructions]

I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Dirk Treasure, CEO. Please go ahead.

[Dirk Treasure, executive]

Thanks, MJ, for the introduction. Good morning, shareholders, and welcome to our June quarter [ 4C ] investor update. Today, I'm joined by Brett Coventry, our Chief Financial Officer, who has dialed in from our newly established operations in Ghana. We've recently established our first PhotonAssay unit in Ghana and are in the process of installing a further 2 in the coming months. Together, Brett and I will be running through an operational and financial reports for the quarter as well as providing some insight into the full year as we close out FY '23. We'll also talk through our FY '24 guidance, which we're excited to be in the presentation to present. After the presentation, Brett and I will be available for Q&A. Please ensure you're dialed in rather than connected via the web link, if you'd like to ask a question. Slide 3, please, operator.

Chrysos has closed out another year of exceptional growth. We've seen our global footprint expand across 3 continents where we've solidified our position in each of these key markets. Our team has more than doubled in size from 55 at the end of FY '22 to 116 at the end of FY '23. We've doubled the number of deployments from 10 to 20, and we've increased our revenue from $14.3 million to $26.8 million.

The way that we look at Chrysos at this stage of our evolution is that we're building a solid foundation in each of our key regions, which will provide support for additional PhotonAssay units to be deployed going forward. We've seen the introduction of regionally based deployment teams, maintenance teams and technical support. These functions are now clearly established around the world and support our business for our FY '24 objectives.

Returning to the quarter just passed, we've had revenue growth of 27%, supported by our growing number of deployed units and an increase to our additional assay charges during the quarter. We processed almost 1 million samples during the quarter, which is an increase of 20% on Q3 FY '22. And just as an interesting statistic, our first 1 million samples took us 2.5 years to achieve, and we're now processing this mainly on a quarterly basis.

We converted $6 million of our total contract value into revenue during the quarter and have identified, along with our laboratory partners, the deployment location for several of our outstanding units. We look forward to deploying our second unit in Tanzania and our first into Guinea with MSALABS, and look forward to establishing our operations in Ghana with Intertek.

Our cash position at the end of the quarter provides us with substantial capital to deploy additional PhotonAssay units. We also have $21.5 million in undrawn debt from the Commonwealth Bank and continue to develop our financing opportunities both domestic and abroad. Our contracted number of units stands firm at 49, including the 20 currently deployed units. So we have commitments in place for a further 29 units, considering that our manufacturing and deployment capacity now stands at 18 units per year, which in and of itself is a major milestone for us. We have confidence in our new deployment pipeline and continue to develop deeper relationships in the industry to support our mid- to long-term pipeline.

We ended the year with 20 units deployed following the installation of 2 units during the quarter. As we outlined in our last release, we did have some delays to our 21st unit, which we hope to install during last financial year. This unit is still expected to be operational during Q1 FY '24. Importantly, we're increasingly confident in our ability to deploy at least 18 units during FY '24, based on the establishment of our globally distributed deployment teams.

The end of FY '23 marks the end of our prospective forecast period, and we're very happy to report that both revenue and EBITDA exceed the forecast that we provided. We've had a slight uplift on our revenue from a forecast $26.6 million to $26.8 million achieved and have announced that our EBITDA for the year is expected to exceed the $3.2 million that we forecast, with the final numbers to be announced in our annual results in August. This is a huge milestone for us, closing out a massive period of growth for the company, where we've achieved our financial targets and laid the groundwork for our ongoing growth. I'm extraordinarily proud of the achievements of our growing team. Slide 4, please, operator.

[Brett Coventry, executive]

Thanks, Dirk. It's great to be talking to the continued growth of our business, particularly our team having achieved the forecasts in our prospectus. This slide we're looking at now is a strong visualization of that growth. Quarter-on-quarter, we can see the improvement in minimum monthly assay payments, MMAP, which is the monthly take-or-pay amount due from our deployed units. We can also see the additional assay charges, the amount we charge each month for assays over the minimum amount of the assay payment, and for this quarter being 12% of revenue. Other income here is jars sales, which is something we've identified not to continue into FY '24 as we've been able to firm up the direct supply to our PhotonAssay clients. Noting that coming into this new financial year, the baseline revenue from MMAP is now $31 million, a strong growth base to be growing into FY '24. Slide 5, please.

With the further 2 units deployed last quarter, the global feed of PhotonAssay units continues to be expanded. It was great to see ongoing increases in quarterly samples with a 20% increase on the previous period and overall utilization remaining slightly above prospectus forecasts. We do not -- we do see -- expect -- or we do expect to see fluctuations in utilization rate as we deploy more units, reflecting the ramp-up from installation and some impact of industry cycles, of course, remembering we have the MMAP as a baseline revenue floor. Slide 6, please.

On the left, you can see a selection of clients we're proud to partner with. On the right, the TCV or total contract value graph, as we touched on in our release, we are retiring this metric. It was important to us early in the business life cycle, but we -- before we had a substantial lease base. However, as we continue to grow the deployed units and the business overall, TCV no longer provides the best reflection of our commercial and operational status. We will retire this metric with $702 million of revenue to be unwound from the current 49 contracts signed. Slide 7, please.

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, please stand by while we reconnect our speaker lines.

[Technical Difficulty]

[Brett Coventry, executive]

With the onset of FY '24, we're providing company guidance for revenue, EBITDA and the number of units deployed. Our FY '24 revenue guidance is a range of $48 million to $58 million, which is an increase of almost 100% on the FY '23 numbers at the midpoint. Importantly, we're removing the provision of consumables from our forecast and are instead facilitating direct relationships between our jars suppliers and our PhotonAssay customers. This allows us to step away from the administration of jars supply.

The provision of jars was a strategic choice to ensure that while we had a limited number of suppliers, we'd be certain of ongoing jars supply, which are basically required for every sample processed by our customers. We've recently established a third supplier and are looking to add another over the coming year, but we're effectively now confident of ongoing supply, and this will no longer be a revenue stream for us. Accordingly, the revenue range of $48 million to $58 million reflects only PhotonAssay revenue made up of the MMAP and AAC, and the revenue forecast reflects an increase of 115% on FY '23 PhotonAssay revenue at the midpoint.

Our FY '24 EBITDA range is from $7 million to $17 million, and I'd like to take a moment to address the breadth of that range. Our underlying business model is to deploy units to our customers and charge a minimum monthly assay payment. In addition, we've paid a per sample fee by our customers when they exceed their minimum commitments, leading to additional assay charges. An ongoing increase of combined minimum payments is within Chrysos' controls as it largely relates to the ongoing service of our existing units and deployment of new units during the year.

The AAC, or Additional Asset Charges, is heavily influenced by factors outside of our control, such as mining exploration investment in catchment areas surrounding our laboratory partners. For Chrysos, our unit operating costs are only nominally impacted by unit throughput. This means that a unit operating at 60% effectively doesn't cost us more than a unit operating at 50%. So you see that translation directly through from the range of revenue through into our EBITDA range.

Finally, from a guidance perspective, we've outlined that we expect to deploy at least 18 units during the financial year, and this will bring us to at least 38 operating units by the end of the year. We've started FY '24 with the right team in the right place to deliver on this target, with no further growth required within either our own deployment teams or within our manufacturer to achieve this 18 per year. Slide 8, please, operator.

Coming back to the quarter. Chrysos has had another quarter of strong and sustainable growth. We've continued to increase our deployed unit base from 18 to 20 during the quarter, with each of these units adding to our minimum monthly assay payments going forward. We have achieved full year revenue of $26.8 million, [ exceeding ] our prospectus forecast of $26.6 million. We've also confirmed that we expect EBITDA to surpass the $3.2 million outlined in the prospectus forecast.

For the full year FY '23, we've been operating cash flow positive to a total of $4.2 million, all of which we're reinvesting to growth. The last 2 quarters have been impacted by a reclassification of inventory on our balance sheet as well as use of a prepayment to settle the customer invoice as further terms of that contract. We fully expect to remain cash flow positive during FY '24.

Our FY '24 deployment schedule is well supported by our 49 contracted units, which have 29 outstanding deployments, which extends well into FY '25. We continue to expand our relationships within the mining and laboratory industries to support our future pipeline growth. Finally, we're well-funded for sustained growth, with substantial cash on hand and available debt totaling $75 million. In closing, it's been a great quarter for Chrysos, an outstanding first year as a listed company, and I'd really like to thank the entire Chrysos team for their contribution.

I will now move to a Q&A.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] The first question tonight comes from Josh Kannourakis from Barrenjoey.

[Josh Kannourakis, analyst]

A few questions, just guidance and then one on demand and one on the sort of supply side. So firstly, just following on from your comments on guidance, Dirk. So when we look at that range, obviously, it's a big one, but like can you give us a bit more context of maybe how much of that variability is around the additional assay payments versus maybe deployment timing and maybe just how we should sort of think about the weighting of deployment -- unit deployment timing into '24 based on, obviously, what you know now?

[Dirk Treasure, executive]

Yes, absolutely. So let's kick them off one at a time. So the deployment timing, my comment there about actually having the teams already available and prepared to be deploying 18 units per year as at the start of FY '24, read between the lines a little bit, but it's pretty much for us, it's going to be spread throughout the year in a consistent fashion. So I think that sort of -- that addresses that one.

With regard to the EBITDA range and the effect of the additional assay charges, largely that range is dependent on that. So we have a pretty firm handle on our deployment capability. Having now deployed 20 units, we're deploying into the same regions that we've already deployed into. If you consider that last year, we expanded into a whole lot of new countries and locations that we were quite new to operating in, this year is a slightly different story.

The only new region that we're really expanding into is South America. So for us, there's now a bit more certainty on timing and ability to get these units deployed on time and allowing the conservatism that we need to ensure that we're hitting that 18 units during that time as well, which then means that really that range is largely dependent on the AAC.

[Josh Kannourakis, analyst]

Got it. And so the way to sort of read that then is that effectively at your minimum monthly assay payments across that with a relatively even schedule that you're at effectively at the sort of $7 million EBITDA into that range, and then incremental to that is the volume that obviously people are tracking above and beyond that range is this sort of incremental to that.

[Dirk Treasure, executive]

That would be a fair sort of assessment.

[Josh Kannourakis, analyst]

Okay. All right. I understand. And just on the cost side, maybe on that as well, like how is that sort of shaping out like in terms of the range of outcomes there? Are you pretty comfortable in terms of the unit economics, in terms original sort of thought process around return on invested capital and the cost per unit operating cost? Is there anything that sort of changed your thought from those initial sort of high rates of return that sort of discussed at prospectus and more recently, should I say?

[Dirk Treasure, executive]

Yes, good question. Brett, did you want to...

[Brett Coventry, executive]

Yes, so I'm happy to jump in there. Josh, the same principles that as we came into prospectus, they still apply as we've spoken about for the last year. We've had a good long-term position with our supplier. So we're not seeing a material increase in our deployment costs around the units in terms of our people. We're obviously growing in line with expectations. And those return on invested capital around the unit is still our expectation. Obviously, the other piece that we're working towards now is being in similar locations in terms of deploying additional units into regions which we already are and then seeing some improvement in the economic returns around that as well.

[Josh Kannourakis, analyst]

Okay. Got it. That's really helpful. Just moving on to the demand side. So obviously, you've got visibility into FY '25 in terms of that rollout. And previously, you've sort of talked to still trying to keep a firm pipeline, keep that sort of rolling out. How should we sort of think about, I guess, the next 6 months in terms of contract announcements, what you're working on, and maybe just give us some more context on the demand side of the equation for the business?

[Dirk Treasure, executive]

On the demand side and with respect to the pipeline, we've kind of stuck to the same line of a 15- to 18-month pipeline is optimal for us. And the reason for that time frame is that, that gives us support for the manufacturing side of things. We've got an 18-month delivery cycle here as well. So it gives us support on that side. And it just means that we're not trying to sell a product to an industry and saying, you're not going to get your equipment for 2 years or 3 years. So we've picked 15 to 18 months as the optimal timeframe.

Right now, with 29 contracts to deploy and an 18 per year deployment capacity, you can sort of see that we're still a little bit beyond that pipeline. I mean the optimal for us sitting right here is 23 to 27 units of that 15 to 18 months on an 18 per year deployment pipeline. So we consider the pipeline to be very strong. Within that then, there's a lot of news coming through that isn't necessarily new sales, but you've seen things like the locations that we're deploying some of these units to. We've just announced that we're going into Geita town with MSALABS, which is obviously right next to Geita Mine run by AngloGold, up the road from our Bulyanhulu operations. So we're firming up the locations of all of these deployments. And at the same time, we've had things like Barrick's taking another unit to Kibali. So while those aren't new sales for us above and beyond the 49, it's us working directly with our laboratory channel partners to make sure that we've got the right locations to deploy all of the units that we have in our pipeline.

Going forward from here then, and the intention is certainly to maintain this 15- to 18-month pipeline, so you can imagine that as we go forward and we deploy another 6 units, that's the point where we would start to be wanting to see replacement of that number of units in the pipeline to keep that same 15- to 18-month profile.

[Josh Kannourakis, analyst]

And so, Dirk, the ones that are sort of, I guess, do you have people sort of waiting there? Is there a wait list? Maybe just to give people a context. I mean, historically, there's always been there's been no sort of issue certainly on the demand side of the equation. And so do you still have in terms of that pipeline and feeling that just maybe to talk about your confidence of being able to get those people once that timing comes, like what are the conversations, what sort of the visibility you've got into that next leg of either customers or existing ones that are going to take more within -- once that pipeline is taken up.

[Dirk Treasure, executive]

Yes, look, very, very comfortable. I mean, essentially, every year that we go forward here in every region that we have expanded into is providing more and more confidence around the technology and just that sort of industry application and acceptance of the technology as well. You think every JORC report that comes out, every NI43-101 report that comes out makes it easier for the next CP or QP to sign off on the resource report. So as we go forward, if anything, it's that adoption and acceptance is continuing to increase. So we have every confidence that we'll keep the pipeline filled at that level.

[Josh Kannourakis, analyst]

Yes. No, that's great to hear. A final one, just on supply. Obviously, you've got a lot of confidence and you've sort of said -- I just noticed this sort of wording around at least 18 units into next year. Is there any potential on the horizon to uplift that if the demand side equation sort of support and your sort of overall infrastructure of the business can support a sort of step-up in going above and beyond 18 and maybe just to remind us of what would have to happen for that to be the case?

[Dirk Treasure, executive]

Yes. So the 18 -- at least 18 is worded quite carefully. And look, it does take into account the conservatism that we need to have around deployment timings into some of the more complicated countries that we work in, allowing for shipping timings, internal transportation, actual installation timings, et cetera, et cetera. And that's just making sure to say to the market that we are confident of the 18, and there is opportunity to go a little bit beyond that.

With regard to sort of ongoing growth from here, it's certainly made up of a few different items. I mean one is, obviously, strength of the pipeline, which I've commented just there that we're very comfortable with and we continue to see the pull from the industry. It's these foundations that we need around the world to ensure that every one of our units that's deployed is doing exactly what it should be.

It's building up those service and maintenance teams. We've just opened a 24/7 support hotline for our quality assurance, quality control samples. So we've got real-time 24-hour monitoring now of what's going on with all of our units around the world. And these things, the establishment of them then make it much easier to deploy additional units into the regions in which we already operate. So I commented right at the start that the way that we look at the business as we are at the moment is building those foundational blocks to support our future growth. And that's not to say that we're coming out with an expansion at this point, but it's certainly something that we entertain the idea of going forward.

Someone actually mentioned this to me very simply the other day, if you take a TAM of 610 units around the world, and the unit lifetime of 20 years, then simply to keep that TAM with units at the end of the period, you need to be deploying 30 units a year. So again, we're not sort of guiding to any of that at the moment, but we are working in an absolutely massive total addressable market and certainly with an eye to the future, but a focus at this point on building those foundations.

[Operator]

There are no further questions at this time. I'll now hand back to Mr. Treasure for closing remarks.

[Dirk Treasure, executive]

Thank you, MJ. It really has been an outstanding quarter and full year for the company. We've grown so used to annual exponential growth that has become a part of the cadence of our business, and we consider it to be business as usual. But when we put in these reports, quarterlies, full years, half years, it's actually nice to look back and consider what we've achieved and what we've delivered upon. So thank you all for your continued support, and I look forward to providing our next update corresponding with our annual results.

[Operator]

That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.