Fluence Corporation Ltd

ASX:FLC

Q2-2025 Earnings Call

[Benjamin Fash, executive]

[Audio Gap] business and financial update. Thank you for your time today and your interest in Fluence. Unfortunately, Tom was unavailable today, but I'm pleased to present you with an update on our business as well as our financial and operational performance through the first half of 2025.

Through the first half of 2025, the business continued its strategic transition, focused on growing our high-margin smart product solutions and recurring revenue products and solutions through our realigned and market-based business units. We also continue to align and integrate our global operations around the world, focusing on our One Fluence approach. This has led to significantly more collaboration and partnership around the world, ultimately unlocking greater market opportunities for our world-class water and wastewater treatment product portfolio.

In terms of the financial performance, while Q2 was slightly behind expectations, the first half of 2025 has significantly outperformed the first half of 2024, positioning ourselves for a strong fiscal 2025 as we anticipate a strong second half of the year.

Revenue in the first half of 2025 was $33.1 million, representing approximately 65% growth over the first half of 2024. Contributions from the Ivory Coast Addendum project was the largest reason for the increase as revenue in the Ivory Coast was $12 million higher than the first half of 2024. Smart Products Solutions, or SPS, revenue was also 19.3% higher in the first half of 2025 than the same period in 2024, and that's a result of growth across all our market-focused business units.

We were anticipating the first half of 2025 to be lighter when compared to Q3 and Q4, which is typical in our business. That continues to be our expectation with significant growth expected in the second half as compared to the first half of 2025.

Gross margins across our core businesses continue to perform well, with Industrial Wastewater & Biogas and Industrial Water & Reuse improving first half margins by 5.9% percent and 3.1%, respectively, as compared to the first half of 2024. Municipal Water & Wastewater also maintained strong gross margins, north of 36% through the first half of the year.

The company continued to control costs as well, with SG&A and R&D fixed costs down $1 million compared to the same period last year. In particular, a number of actions were taken in our Southeast Asia and China business unit to rightsize their cost base in the second quarter, reducing their run rate cost base by approximately 60% as compared to just 2 years ago.

As a result of higher revenue, strong gross margins and lower fixed cost, EBITDA in the first half of 2025 was $0.1 million, which was an increase of $3.6 million compared to the same period in 2024. All business units, other than Industrial Water & Reuse contributed to this improved financial performance in the first half. Specifically, the Ivory Coast Addendum contributed $1.4 million of EBITDA in the first half compared to a loss of $0.2 million in the first half of 2024.

Industrial Wastewater & Biogas saw a significant EBITDA increase of $0.5 million in the first half on strong revenue growth of $1.6 million. Municipal Water & Wastewater saw revenue growth of $1.3 million while EBITDA growth was a more modest $0.3 million, mainly due to a large onetime chemical sale on the New Mansoura project in the first half of 2024.

Corporate cost savings of about $800,000 also contributed positively to EBITDA in the first half. And while I mentioned Industrial Water & Reuse, they saw a modest reduction in revenue and EBITDA, mostly due to project delays and lower spare parts orders in the first half. However, the outlook for the remainder of fiscal 2025 remains strong and the business is expected to meet its targets for the full year.

In the first half of 2025, Fluence booked $22.6 million in new orders, which was down about 9.1% from the first half of 2024. However, the company has subsequently secured new orders in July of over $8 million, with another $2 million to $4 million expected to close in early August. Municipal North America, Industrial Water & Reuse, Industrial Wastewater & Biogas and our Southeast Asia and China business units all saw combined increase in orders of $4.2 million in the first half of 2025, which represents an increase of about 21.6%.

Backlog as of June 30, 2025, was $79.5 million, down about $4 million as compared to the end of the year. That's primarily due to the progress on the Ivory Coast Addendum, offset by backlog growth in all our other business units. Our core business unit saw backlog growth of $3.7 million in the first half, up about 11%. First half 2025 revenue plus backlog, particularly when considering the $8 million of new orders that I just mentioned were booked in July, is sufficient to meet our revenue guidance, which gives us a lot of confidence in our ability to hit our numbers.

Given the strong backlog position, the company is forecasting strong revenue growth and positive EBITDA for the second half of 2025. We are, therefore, maintaining our fiscal 2025 guidance of $80 million to $95 million of revenue and EBITDA of $3 million to $5 million, noting, however, that downside risks do remain due to potential tariff-based project delays and continued weakness in the China market.

Speaking of tariffs, let me provide you with an update on the impact of tariffs on the Fluence's business. Overall, we expect the impact of fluctuating U.S. tariff policy to be relatively minor on Fluence's business and predominantly limited to the Municipal U.S. revenue where the manufacturing origin is outside of the U.S. However, the trade policy framework of the U.S. administration does remain unpredictable, and several existing projects have the potential risk of delays as a result of our operations teams pursuing alternative manufacturing strategies. To date, due to the actions of our team, the potential negative impact on fiscal 2025 Municipal gross margins has been largely mitigated. The company evaluated alternative manufacturing strategies to mitigate and minimize the impact on project margins, which we expect to be very successful.

On the cash flow side, the company had a very strong quarter. Fluence ended the second quarter of 2025 with $12.7 million in cash and another $4.1 million in security deposits. Operating cash flow generated in the quarter and in the first half of 2025 was $5.1 million and $4.9 million, respectively. This was primarily due to collecting the fourth milestone of approximately EUR 6 million related to the Ivory Coast Addendum very close to the end of the quarter. However, a significant amount of vendor payments were not settled until early July. As a result, Q3 2025 operating cash flow is forecasted to be negative. However, the year-to-date operating cash flow through Q3 2025 is still forecasted to be positive on an aggregate basis.

Lastly, I wanted to provide you with an update on the Ivory Coast project as it obviously still has a significant financial impact on the company. Commissioning of the main works is now largely complete, with the largest work outstanding being the stabilization of an embankment for pipe crossing of the swamp, which will largely be completed in parallel with the Addendum works. The Addendum works are currently progressing well and are on schedule and on budget through Q2. And from a financial perspective, we are ahead of forecast in terms of revenue and EBITDA in the project.

As of the end of Q2 2025, the company had collected 4 milestone payments related to the Addendum project totaling EUR 22.3 million, representing approximately 45% of the total payments. The fifth milestone payment, which is approximately EUR 8 million, was recently approved and is expected to be paid in the coming weeks.

Fluence is also continuing its efforts to secure a long-term O&M contract for the plant and continues to receive positive feedback from the client in this regard. Negotiations have commenced and a draft of the agreement is expected to be shared in the coming weeks. The start of the long-term O&M contract requires the Addendum works being undertaken to be completed. There may, however, be an interim plant maintenance contract awarded, which Fluence is also well positioned to receive. Maintaining the plant on an interim basis would position the company very well to be awarded the long-term O&M contract.

In conclusion, Fluence continued to progress its strategic transformation in the first half of 2025. And while financial performance was slightly behind expectations, it demonstrated significant growth compared to the first half of 2024, which positions us well for a strong fiscal 2025. Management remains encouraged by the outlook for the second half of 2025, particularly with the strong start to order bookings in Q3. With the $8 million in orders that the company has secured in July, the business has enough backlog to deliver on its revenue and EBITDA guidance as long as they do not experience any material project delays.

Combined with healthy and growing gross margins, a lower cost base and better cash management practices, management is optimistic about the opportunity to continue to build sustained profitability and positive cash flow.

That concludes the formal part of our presentation. At this time, I will take questions from webcast participants. Thank you again for your time and your continued interest in Fluence.

[Benjamin Fash, executive]

There's a question asking, can you please provide an update on the U.S. production line? Is there a location secured? And any target dates for implementation and ideally go live?

So the answer to that question is, we do have a location secured in Tennessee. We are in the process of negotiating a lease with the landlord. The equipment has been delivered, and so we are confident we will be able to negotiate a lease with the potential landlord. Once that is done, we have teed up a mechanical engineering firm to support, set up and essentially getting the equipment up and running, calibrated, et cetera. There's also some permitting processes that we would need to go through. And so the anticipated time line, once we are able to negotiate that lease, would likely be 4 to 6 months to get it up and running.

So while we would like to get it up and running this year, realistically, we're likely to be producing membranes in 2026 as opposed to 2025 on that machine. That said, we have -- on our Municipal projects, we have been able to establish some additional partnerships on manufacturing, not on the membranes per se, but certainly with the municipal systems overall, which has allowed us to, like I said, mitigate and minimize any margin impacts on the gross margins of our Municipal projects.

So there is a question on, great to see the key recent wins. I know that the majority are in Brazil, Argentina and Italy. Can you talk about how much of the pipeline is outside of these 3 countries? And specifically what the USA forecasts and market is looking for -- looking like for the remainder of 2020 and into 2026?

Yes, we have had a significant amount of success in South America and in Italy. That's really results of, I think, the collaborative work of our Industrial Water and Wastewater Teams working together, like I said, opening up, I think, market opportunities that weren't available a few years ago. And in terms of the market opportunities in the U.S., they have not -- they are still quite significant. In each of our business units, both Industrial Water & Reuse, Industrial Wastewater & Biogas and our Municipal group, the majority of the growth in our pipeline has come from the U.S. market. And while there was no significant orders booked in Q2 specifically, we did have a number of orders in Q1 and anticipate others to be getting booked in Q3 and Q4. So we feel very comfortable about the growth in the U.S.

Okay. There's another question here, please comment on the lack of sales in the U.S.A. over the period.

Again, I think that, that's just really a factor of it being a 3-month period that we're looking at -- we have had success in Q1 and expect in the second half of the year that we will continue to show order growth in the U.S. So I really think it's just a question of timing more than anything else.

There's a question, does the company need a cap raise? Should be funding be required? Or is an extension to the existing debt facility to be considered as an option ahead of cap raise?

So I think that there's a few questions embedded in this question. I'll state this, at this point in time, the company is not considering an equity capital raise. There are options to extend the debt financing, but we are also pursuing and investigating other debt financing providers as the company's profitability and cash flow improves. We think that we'll have -- we're going to be able to attract ideally a global bank that can meet our needs across a global business and that is willing to step in as a commercial lender to our company. And that's the focus when it comes to refinancing, but we do have some extension options as well.

There is a question, are we in contention for an $11 million project in Caye Caulker, Belize? The specification had mentioned requirement of MABR flat sheet to make modular units. I'd have to follow up with our Municipal team on that one. I suspect that they are very well aware of it. Given the size and the specification that you're talking about, I can't speak to that project specifically at this moment in time, however.

Okay. And another question will be, other 15 to 16 units for San Leandro be coming into our backlog by the end of this financial year. It is unlikely that the remaining units for the San Leandro project will be coming into our backlog by the end of this financial year. However, as we deliver on that demonstration plant and have success in terms of its operations, that is going to lead to significant future opportunities, both with that customer as well as in California more broadly.

So there is another question on the Mayotte project asking, is the Mayotte project on target and above and beyond what was in the budgeted forecast?

I can say that the -- for the Mayotte project, we recognized approximately $2 million of that project in fiscal 2024. Through the first half of this year, we have recognized approximately $1.7 million. So when you combine the $2 million plus the $1.7 million, we're about 50% complete through the first half of 2025. So we are forecasting another $2.6 million for the remainder of 2025. And at this point, I think we primarily have control over the schedule. We did have a few delays in the first half just due to some design changes that customer requested, which we've now settled. But I believe now that the $2.6 million that we still have forecasted for the remainder of this year is well within our control.

In terms of above and beyond, I'm not sure what that question is referring to, but we remain on budget with that particular project. And there are potential opportunities for cost savings, but at this point, we are not projecting those in our numbers.

There was a question here on great half-day event held last month. How was the feedback? Did it lead to better collaboration internally, et cetera? I think that's a really great question, and I appreciate the feedback. Yes, we think it was a really good event as well. Quite a bit of work went into that with our team. And I think it did allow for some enhanced collaboration across our business. The reality is that the group that our investors got to meet on the Virtual Investor Day, we're getting together very regularly and talking strategy, talking about how we can further align and integrate our operations across the world. So it felt fitting to use one of those opportunities, which are happening at least once a quarter anyway, and bring the shareholders into that conversation and let you guys see a little bit about -- a little bit more about how we're managing those businesses at the ground level, if you will.

I think our VPs and general managers enjoyed the process of kind of presenting. And I think it -- while we talk an awful lot about strategy and the process, it certainly allowed maybe clarify their thinking on it. Because when you have a succinct period of time to present it, your clarity of thought needs to be pretty precise. So I think it was a really good event. The feedback that we've received has been excellent and very positive. So it's something we'd like to continue in some way, shape or form going forward. Our challenge as a global company with most of our operations outside of Australia is it presents a difficulty in sort of getting investors inside and seeing our operations up close. So we have to get a little bit creative, which was what we had tried to do with that virtual Investor Day. So we'll continue to try perhaps more innovative ways to introduce our operations to the marketplace.

Another question. If Fluence gets awarded the O&M contract for the Ivory Coast, will that require a significant increase in headcount to meet that contract? What are the margins like for such a contract?

So yes, it will require an increase in headcount because you will need to staff the operating staff for that plant. We have already started discussions with potential plant managers that are experienced in this area. Ultimately, the org chart would be kind of up to them. But I think it would be, again, sized appropriately for the level of operations that the plant is at. And that will take some time to scale up over time. It's not going to run at 100% capacity on day 1. And in fact, we can't start producing water at any material levels until the Addendum works are complete.

So while we're in the process of negotiating the contract, I'm not really going to talk about the margins. However, what I will say is that typically operating margins on our O&M contracts, depending on the size, situation, et cetera, can really vary, but I'd say most of them would fall in the 25% to 35%, maybe even as high as 40% range at times. And -- but at this point in time, I'm not going to share what we anticipate margins to be like on that contract.

Okay. So another question around forecast, I believe. Thanks for the update. Is the revenue of $33 million in the first half in line with your initial forecast for the year? You are expecting $47 million to $62 million in revenue in the second half. What are the contributors to such a significant jump in revenue expected?

So the $33 million that we achieved in the first half was slightly behind our expectations. We did experience some project delays, primarily some related to tariffs and having to -- or find alternative manufacturing strategies, as we mentioned. And we also had some customer-driven project delays in our industrial businesses as well. For the most part, those have all been free up at this point. So we are in control of the backlog that we are now forecasting to recognize in the second half by and large. So we feel pretty comfortable about it.

And like I said, I think, earlier, when you take the revenue recognized year-to-date, so the $33 million that was mentioned, and the backlog that is forecasted to be recognized in the first half of the year, you get to about $75 million. If you then take the additional $8 million that we just secured in July, we're up over $80 million. Now not all of that $8 million will be recognized this year, but we -- it sort of, I think, gives you a sense for why we're comfortable with the revenue in hand or the -- excuse me, the backlog in hand to recognize the significant revenue growth in the second half.

The other thing I will say is, again, the growth that you're seeing between first half and second half also is somewhat typical of the business. And if you look at us historically, our second half has always been quite a bit stronger than our first half. So it's a good question.

Okay. There was a question on, what is the update on China manufacturing and the role of this factory once USA manufacturing commences?

So going forward, the role of the factory in China is primarily to support the Southeast Asia and China market. It doesn't mean that we won't be manufacturing membranes for other parts of the world, but I think that the primary focus will be on supporting the Southeast Asia and China business. And the reality is that given the tariff disruption that we experienced in the first half, our Municipal business, in particular, the Municipal business that is delivering systems in the U.S. had to pivot and come up with alternative supply chains anyhow. So the reality is that, that manufacturing shift has already started regardless of whether we've set up membrane manufacturing in the U.S. yet or not.

How will the large Cambodian MABR installation lead to any new work in the region?

Well, I think my answer to that is, any significant installation like the MABR in Cambodia is going to be a positive for new work. I think the reality is that the installations really matter. Your successful installations that are operating are ones that you can take clients to, and they are very significant in terms of your ability to win new work in the region. And given our focus in the Southeast Asia and China business unit is primarily on countries outside of Mainland China that is a very important installation for us, and it will lead to new work in countries like Cambodia, Taiwan, Vietnam, et cetera.

Okay. Not seeing any other questions coming in. So at this point in time, I think we're going to conclude the Q&A and the presentation. If you do have any additional questions, feel free to send them along to Andrew Angus. He will get them to us, and we will do our best to respond. But I want to thank you again for your time and attention today. We truly appreciate your interest in Fluence and thank you again. Have a great day.