Ecorodovias Infraestrutura e Logistica SA

BOVESPA:ECOR3

Earnings Call Transcript

[Operator]

Good morning, and welcome to EcoRodovias' Third Quarter of 2024 Earnings Presentation. With us here today are Mr. Marcello Guidotti, CEO; and Andrea Fernandes, CFO. This presentation is being recorded [Operator Instructions]

The slides of this presentation are available on the company's Investor Relations website in the Results Center section at ri.ecorodovias.com.br. After the end of the earnings presentation, the recording will be available in the same section.

Before proceeding, we would like to clarify that the forward-looking statements that may be made during this presentation relating to EcoRodovias' business prospects, projections and operational and financial targets are based on the management's beliefs and assumptions as well as on currently available information. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions as they refer to future events and hence, depend on circumstances that may or may not occur. Investors should understand that general economic conditions, industry conditions and other operating factors may affect the future performance of EcoRodovias and lead to results that differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking statements.

I will now turn the floor over to Andrea Fernandes, who will discuss the earnings. Please, Andrea, you may proceed.

[Andrea Fernandes, executive]

Good morning. Welcome to EcoRodovias' Third Quarter of 2024 earnings presentation. We thank you for your participation. We start the presentation with the highlights on Slide 3, where we present a growth of 6.1% in comparable traffic in the quarter and 6.5% in the 9 months of 2024, driven by heavy vehicle traffic due to economic growth and the expansion of our road capacity.

In addition, on November 6, we reported our operating performance for October with a 6% increase in comparable traffic. It is worth mentioning that in October 2023, comparable traffic grew 10.4% compared to the same period in 2022, demonstrating the potential and quality of our highway concessions as well as the positive impact of investments on EcoRodovias' operating results even when compared to a previously strong base -- growth base.

The next highlight is the performance of adjusted cash costs in line with inflation, an increase of 4.3% in the quarter and 4.4% in the first 9 months of 2024. We also see the cash over adjusted net revenue ratio in the 9 months of '24, which reached 27.2%, down 1.5 percentage points compared to 2023.

Next, we highlight adjusted EBITDA of BRL 1.2 billion in the quarter and BRL 3.5 billion in the 9 months of '24, an increase of 18% in the quarter and 25% in the year-to-date. Net income reached BRL 265 million in the quarter and BRL 775 million in the 9 months of '24. Another highlight is EcoRodovias' focus on delivering capacity expansion and improvement works at the highway concessions. Investments totaled BRL 1.1 billion in the quarter and BRL 3 billion in the 9 months of '24.

The company made important investments in road widening works, frontage roads, implementation of intersections, bridges, overpasses. And even with the investments of more than BRL 11 billion over the past 3 years, leverage has remained stable at 3.3x when compared to 2021, reflecting the excellent operational performance of our highways.

And to close the highlights, we informed that in September, EcoNoroeste started the operation of free flow gantries for electronic toll collection in the Itapolis plaza and in November in the Jaboticabal plaza. And finally, we highlight that EcoRodovias has opened the Sao Paulo Operations Center, which consolidates the control centers for the operations of Ecovias dos Imigrantes and Ecopistas. This new unit is capable of serving up to 4 of the group's concessions and is another step towards optimizing the management of our assets.

On Slide 5, we show our operational performance. Consolidated traffic grew 12.7% in the third quarter and comparable traffic grew 6.1%. The highlight was the 9.1% increase in comparable traffic of heavy vehicles due to the performance of exports of agricultural commodities, the industrial production and driven by the completion of works to expand capacity and improve highway concessions. It is important to note the 35% growth in traffic at Ecopistas, mainly impacted by the increase in movement at the Port of Sao Sebastiao, and the 11% growth at Eco135, reflecting investments in road widening and additional lanes at more than 100 kilometers since 2023.

On Slide 6, we present adjusted gross revenue of BRL 1.9 billion in the third quarter of 2024 and BRL 5.3 billion year-to-date, a 14.9% increase in the quarter and 20.3% in the year.

On Slide 7, adjusted net revenue grew 15.6% in the quarter and 23% in the 9 months of '24. Additionally, on the right, we highlight the 5.8 percentage point increase in toll collection by electronic means, which has reached 83.5% in the quarter.

On Slide 8, we highlight the performance of adjusted cash costs in line with inflation, up 4.3% in the quarter and 4.4% in the 9 months of '24. We also show the cash costs over adjusted net revenue ratio in the 9 months of '24, which reached 27.2%, down 1.5 percentage points compared to 2023 and 8.1 percentage points compared to 2022. EcoRodovias' strategic cost management is based on strict cost control and value creation through efficiency initiatives and operational synergies, innovation and digital transformation.

On Slide 9, we see the adjusted EBITDA of BRL 1.2 billion in the quarter, an increase of 18% compared to the third quarter of 2023, and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 73.3%, up 1.5 percentage points compared to the same period of the previous year. Adjusted EBITDA from highway concessions grew by 17.4% and adjusted EBITDA margin by 75.6%.

Moving on to Slide 10. Adjusted EBITDA on the 9 years (sic) [ months ] of 2024 has reached BRL 3.5 billion, a 25.3% increase when compared to the same period of 2023.

On Slide 11, net income of BRL 265 million in the quarter and BRL 775 million in the 9 months of '24, an increase of 15% in the quarter and 66% in the year-to-date, reflecting the increase in EBITDA.

On Slide 13, investments totaled BRL 1.1 billion in the quarter and BRL 3 billion in the 9 months of 2024. The highlights in this slide are the main deliveries, the Contour in Minas Gerais by Eco135, the completion of the road widening works in Goias by Eco050, and 8 kilometers of road widening works in Tocantins by Ecovias do Araguaia.

On Slide 14, we ended the quarter with consolidated leverage of 3.3x, stable compared to June 2024. It is worth noting that even with the relevant investments of the past 3 years, leverage has remained stable compared to 2021. Since 2023, EcoRodovias has been working towards optimizing its capital structure and tax efficiency. In September '24, the share of net debt from highway concessions reached 65% compared to 41% in December 2022 due to improvement in operating performance and liability management.

On Slide 15, we ended the quarter with a cash balance of BRL 4.9 billion and maturities of BRL 470 million in the fourth quarter of 2024. In the first half of '25, maturities will total BRL 2.7 billion and are mainly concentrated between EcoRioMinas and Ecovias dos Imigrantes. In the second half of the year, maturities amount to BRL 2.4 billion and are mainly concentrated in EcoNoroeste. The bridge loans of EcoRioMinas and EcoNoroeste will be paid with a long-term financing that is in the process of structuring.

Finally, on Slide 17, in September 2024, EcoRodovias was selected for the second consecutive year to be part of the B3 diversity index portfolio. Another highlight was the studies carried out to calculate the potential for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases from the high-speed weight in motion system, HS-WIM, at Ecovias do Cerrado, which resulted in a potential 20% reduction in emissions compared to conventional weigh-in, contributing to our decarbonization plan.

We conclude this presentation by reiterating that the company will remain attentive and evaluating opportunities, albeit more selectively, for new growth opportunities, and is focused on the execution and delivery of capacity expansion works and improvements in highway concessions, operational efficiency, strategic cost management, safety, innovation and digital transformation.

With that, we conclude our presentation and we would like to move on to the question-and-answer session.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] First question, Guilherme Mendes, JPMorgan.

[Guilherme Mendes, analyst]

Two points about growth and capital allocation, first, about the Sorocabana highway. I'd just like to talk a little bit about what was included in the company's comments, what you saw in terms of upside? And if you can share any expectation of returns that you had with the objective?

And the second point, with this final comment about being more selective and even to impossible projects, if you can talk a little bit about the main focus of the company and the level of return you would expect and the balance in this scenario? I understand that the idea is to have projects that deleverage the company at the first time. So thinking about the leverage level for coming years, how you see these possibilities?

[Marcello Guidotti, executive]

Guilherme, this is Marcelo. I'll start about the selective position of the company. Of course, we have been selective in recent years. We remain selective. And Sorocabana is a result of this selectiveness. Of course, we saw good conditions in terms of return, a good contract. Of course, it's in Sao Paulo with its performance that has always been meeting our numbers in recent years. And this is the demonstration of how selective we are.

We bid with our -- according to our assumptions. And the winner provided their returns. We had our assumptions. I believe we had done a good analysis of CapEx and OpEx and the demand as well. And the return rates are comfortable return rates, I believe. The return rates that -- again, speaking to our selectiveness, we didn't see other projects of this level. So I wouldn't say anything further than that.

And looking forward, we maintain this same line. There are other projects coming up. There's a big pipeline of bigger projects, smaller projects, projects with more synergies with our portfolio. And we'll look at them one by one, matching it to the group's business, seeing the impact, the capacity. And of course, we can't always have everything to generate cash. And if there's -- there's competition, there are synergies. I mean, sometimes we'll see 1 element, 2 elements or none and we'll analyze them and focusing and putting them on our analysis always, paying attention to the sustainability of it as well. We don't know exactly the challenges that we'll see in coming years. We have CapEx executions already contracted.

And luckily, as you've seen in our operating results, we've been meeting our expectations. And that gives us some stamina. We're looking at other alternatives as recycling assets and some recycling operations. And things are moving along cautiously, looking at each project carefully and being selective. Of course, all of that, considering return rates that are definitely attractive.

[Operator]

Next question, Filipe Nielsen from Citi.

[Filipe Ferreira Nielsen, analyst]

My question is about CapEx for this quarter. I'd like to understand. I think CapEx was a little bit below what we expected here. We were expecting a ramp-up process of the CapEx with the works moving forward. I'd like to understand whether there was anything unforeseen in this quarter? And when we should start seeing the CapEx accelerating considering you have a lot of ongoing works and a lot of projects contracted?

And I'd also like to understand the second point about Eco101. We saw the invitation of TCU. The Court of Accounts has approved. And I'd like to understand your expectations in terms of the next steps. In this process of the bid, what you expect of this new agreement, if it's -- it's a relevant CapEx, but with a considerable tariff increase. So if you can talk a little bit about return and how this Eco101 reformulated fits into your plans.

[Andrea Fernandes, executive]

About the investments, the company has been working in its investment plans. Challenges do come up, especially more recently with IBAMA for the environmental licenses. But still, we have been realizing about BRL 1 billion of CapEx for the quarter, and we expect for the year to get closer to BRL 4 billion to BRL 4.5 billion in CapEx. I think it's natural even with the plan -- historically, we work with a CapEx performance between 80% to 85% of the plan for the year, knowing about the challenges and that there may be periods of rains and the licenses that have impacted the execution of those investments, especially at Araguaia and EcoRioMinas.

About your question on Eco101. Now since the beginning of November, there's the public hearing going on for the society's contribution to the invitation to bid. That's expected to be concluded in December by the 18th. They will publish the invitation probably in January. And then the competition -- I imagine that the government will give us about 6 days after the publication of the invitation for this competitive process, migrating probably to March or April 2025.

[Marcello Guidotti, executive]

You talked about the return rate. It was discussed with a return rate of the actual project of 9.21%, which is the typical rate of the new auctions that are being published recently. So 9.21% of the actual rate.

[Andrea Fernandes, executive]

And the company operates this asset and has operated this asset for quite some time, and we know the asset very well. We've worked on recent months to build this solution. So we're quite comfortable with the results of this process so far.

[Operator]

Next question, Fernanda Recchia, BTG Pactual.

[Fernanda Recchia, analyst]

Two points here that I would like to discuss. First, I'd like to hear a little bit about traffic. We've been seeing traffic performing very well, especially heavy vehicles. Looking forward, I'd like to understand what you look at in terms of the traffic levels. And if you can talk about not only for the end of '24, but also about 2025 the expectation of a better harvest season, if that could continue leading the -- or driving the traffic of heavy vehicles?

And then second point, I'd like an update on the negotiations at Ecoporto. We know that the concession would end by December. So I'd like to know about the potential for another renewal and if the consolidation of the Port of Santos changes something in the development of your negotiations. Those would be my questions.

[Andrea Fernandes, executive]

About traffic, traffic has been performing quite well, even with the historic GDP elasticity of the company. It has actually been surprising to be above this elasticity. We released this year the traffic levels of October. It's growing at about 6% consolidated, in these 10 months at 6.5% growth. So there's nothing right now that leads us to believe it should slow down. The quality of the assets and the investments that are being made do bring an induction of traffic to our highways. So we believe we'll have a good year for 2024 and a good 2025 as well.

Today, we have a diverse traffic profile. We are not dependent on any specific crop. We believe -- we depend on the industry and the agribusiness, tourism, light vehicles. Weather also affect it. But we are positive with the view for 2025, also considering the expectations of better harvest for the year 2025.

The question about Ecoporto, I'll turn the floor to Guidotti.

[Marcello Guidotti, executive]

For Ecoporto, I confirm that the contract that's been renewed does expire in December. The government has declared this interest for a bid in the area, the [ F3C PEN ], that's partially occupied by Ecoporto. This will probably take some time still. We're negotiating some transition contracts. We're unifying the conditions so that they can be safe contracts for EcoRodovias until we get the new bidding for that. We're at this stage. Of course, the original contract will be concluded. And we'll enter transition contracts that can guarantee minimum investment levels and some safety for that moment. We're discussing that. And by December, we will have this all sorted.

[Operator]

Next question, Victor Mizusaki, Bradesco BBI.

[Victor Mizusaki, analyst]

Congratulations on the earnings. I have 2 questions. First, about the initiatives that you announced now in the third quarter about the unified operations center, the weight in motion system, if you can share with us numbers of how much this can contribute to improve that indicator of cash cost over revenue?

Second question about the earnings of the third quarter. You mentioned that you signed a CapEx contract with a consortium [indiscernible]. If you can talk a little bit about how this contract is going to work as regards to the risk matrix?

[Marcello Guidotti, executive]

Speaking of the efficiencies and initiatives, they are continuous today. There are implemented processes in the digitalization group, innovation that are different aspects that converge. And it's a continuous ongoing process. New initiatives are being evaluated, and some are started, others go through the different phases. Some initiatives become new solutions and so on and so forth. And all of that is working well.

We have governance and we have everything in place. And that's the path we're following. Of course, that reflects in our results. We expect this index of cash cost over revenue to reach 20%, maybe on the medium to long term around -- so that '26 -- by 2026, '27, it's close to 20%. So the operating leverage will remain strong. Net debt margin will reach -- the EBITDA margin will reach 80% in the medium term. That's what we want to do, use the new solutions, use technology and innovate as well.

Again, it's not all innovation that becomes an operating solution. But even if there's only one, it already makes quite a difference. So we wish to continue like that, bringing good operational results, and as Andrea said, driven by the positive traffic as well. And we'll be able to extract value of this operational leverage.

About the contract with the consortium, it's a typical contract with its risk-sharing mechanisms that regulate risks on the amounts, more or less, and share those risks. In this case, due to contractual requirements, we have a diligent analysis of this contract with all the internal approvals for governance. And it's a contract that tackles the most complex to expand on those investments that are more on the day-to-day in terms of maintenance.

So for the concession, it's a guarantee, a strong guarantee of execution. We say at least that the CapEx risk on these contracts, it's more a risk of execution of price because these are very strict contracts that require -- the tenures and the CapEx cycle has to be executed. So being able to count with these partners in the complex CapEx are important.

The risk share mechanisms are the same as usual, compatible with the levels. I don't know if you have the details, but it shares risks of amounts and demands up and down. So where there are gains starting at a 7 level -- or I think it's 10%, it's shared. And if it goes down, it's the same thing. So we have an incentive to seek good solutions. And there's a floor for us to avoid negative surprises in the amounts.

[Operator]

Next question, Alberto Valerio, UBS.

[Alberto Valerio, analyst]

I have a question here about the bid. We saw the call bid. My question is whether you'd have a partner for it or if it should fit in the Sorocabana balance or if you'd like to make an offer or a capital solution if you took the Sorocabana bid?

[Marcello Guidotti, executive]

So Sorocabana, we had no partner. It was simply EcoRodovias in Sao Paulo. We have synergies, and we operate as a single asset. We don't have partners. Sorocabana, as I said in the beginning, was well studied. It had a profile that was adapted to EcoRodovias' situation. And I wouldn't expect any follow-on or equity solutions in the medium term to support growth levels, CapEx cycles and everything. Maintaining financial sustainability is being studied, not necessarily a follow-on. As I mentioned, opportunities of asset recycling that could bring new resources that support the company. We are very attentive to balance sheet dynamics and debt dynamics, but Sorocabana would not include any.

[Operator]

The question and answer session is now closed. We will turn the floor to Andrea Fernandes for her closing remarks.

[Andrea Fernandes, executive]

I thank you all for attending. And myself and the Investor Relations team remain available for any requests. Have a great day. Thank you.

[Operator]

EcoRodovias' earnings conference call is closed. We thank you all for your participation. Have a great day.