Raizen SA
BOVESPA:RAIZ4
Raizen SA
BOVESPA:RAIZ4
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Earnings Call Transcript
Other Earnings Calls
Good morning, everyone. Thank you for waiting. Welcome to the Raizen Fourth Quarter of the 2023/2024 Crop Year Earnings Presentation. This presentation is being recorded, and the replay will be available at the company's IR website at ri.raizen.com.br/en and at Raizen official YouTube channel.[Operator Instructions] Before proceeding, we would like to clarify that any statements that may be made during this conference call regarding the company's business prospects, operational and financial projections and goals are the beliefs and assumptions of Raizen's Executive Board using current information available. These statements may involve risks and uncertainties as they relate to future events, and therefore depend on circumstances that may or may not occur. Investors should be aware of events related to the macroeconomic scenario, the industry, and other factors that could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in the respective forward-looking statements. Today, we have the presence of the following company's executives: Ricardo Mussa, CEO; Carlos Moura, CFO and Investor Relations Officer; and Phillipe Casale, Head of IR. Now I'll turn the conference over to Mr. Casale. Please, you may begin your presentation.
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for being here with us for our 2023\'24 year-end presentation. I'm Philippe Casale, Director of Investor Relations, and I'm joined by Carlos Moura, our CFO. Just a quick note that our presentation, the slides too, on our YouTube channel with Portuguese sub-tiers. Now I'd like to invite Carlos to kick off the presentation with a dive in to our results, the progress and achievements for this year.
Good morning, Phillipe, and good morning, everyone. Presenting our annual results where we are starting to perceive the benefits of the movements made since our IPO. We have seen significant growth and progress across all areas, including the expansion of our margins, capital discipline, cost and expenses management, and simplifying our investment agenda. Let's start to present our performance with Mobility. We have maintained profitability levels for the third consecutive quarter despite the challenges in each of our operating regions. In Brazil, I want to highlight three key factors that contributed to this quarter's results. First, our supply strategy was executed as planned by our trading area, while prioritizing our relationship with Petrobras and also seized market opportunities, particularly in diesel and methanol, enhancing profitability and competitiveness. Second, a great pricing with a continuous focus on meeting the needs of our contracted customers in B2B. And third, customer-centricity approach and a focus on the Shell low - [indiscernible] grade fuels offering, expanding our value proposition.
A positive example is the growth of our lubricants business, more than doubling its contribution to our results since its acquisition. Additionally, we recently had two significant launches. Our newest partnership deal with Sena brands to launch a new Shell v-power ethanol Sena in Brazil. This combination of powerful brands will enhance the consumer perception about ethanol and with a focus in customer loyalty, the new Shell Box Club we offer even more features and rewards through our partnership with Stix, one of the largest loyalty programs in Brazil. A crucial remark about the market environment in Brazil. The Combustivel Legal Institute, ICL, is taking a stand against illegal practices such as clandestine fuel a acquisition and tax evasion, violation of biodiesel regulations, and failure to meet goals under the RenovaBio program from some players. A study conducted by Getúlio Vargas revealed that more than BRL 14 billion in taxes are evaded annually. We are even more committed to work in connection with No-Main Grade Shell and its associates, capital markets, financial institutes and authorities in Brazil to take action, fight against illegality and promote fair competition. This will benefit consumers, the Brazilian society, and enhance the market value, attracting more investments and creates even more jobs.
Moving to LATAM operations. We maintain consistency in our positioning, adding resilience to the market dynamics. We have expanded profitability through operational efficiency, effective supply management, and pricing initiatives. We remain vigilant about the effects of the macroeconomic environment and its impact on demand in Argent-Chile. Our second pillar is agricultural productivity. We had a historic harvest at Raizen. We achieved a record-breaking crushing and yields, measuring tons of sugarcane per hectare, thanks to effective management of production process and favorable weather conditions. To date, Raizen is a benchmark in agricultural productivity. The reported numbers are proof of their performance from investments made to unlock the potential of our sugarcane fields, and we will continue to make it happening in an ongoing years.
Speaking of the quarter and the year, it's important to note that the increasing yields allows us to absorb the effect of inflation on costs, as shown in this graph. However, this harvest, our production costs were impacted by the extended harvest period with more operating days as well as by the rise in Consecana prices. Finally, I must highlight the Raizen excellence system, the [indiscernible], which has supported our efforts to enhance efficiency, safety and overall agro-industrial performance. These indicators are crucial for maximizing our growth potential. Now in sugar, our third pillar, we ramped up shipments in the quarter, concluding the crop year with a record-breaking results. We continue to monitor market fundamentals, indicating a higher profitability cycle, supported by a pricing strategy that provides us with both predictability and stability.
Now turning to our fourth focus area, the ethanol, we had to strengthened our competitive edge by maintaining a premium on our product mix, supported by our integrated position in the value chain. Our portfolio of [indiscernible] is positioned to attend various markets for different applications with scale and certification. We also choose to maintain our carryover inventory slightly above historical levels, capturing the best price observed in recent weeks, which will be reflected in next quarter's results. And the fifth pillar is our strategy in Raizen power, which has maintained its position amongst Brazil's largest energy trading houses. Our strategy to expand customer base has been intensified, gaining scale and advancing in new partnerships, especially in electromobility and distributed generation. We are continuing to develop our new projects and evaluating opportunities for recycling our DG project portfolio, as we have disclosed in the beginning of April.
Lastly, our E2G initiative. We have started the commercialization of the world's largest second-generation ethanol plant at the Bonfim BioEnergy Park, proving the effectiveness of our proprietary technology. Leveraging the robust global demand for sustainable biofuels, we will deploy two new plants in this fiscal year, Barra and Univalem, reaching four operating plants by crop year-end with an annual production capacity exceeding 80 million liters of E2G. Notably, 80% of this plant's capacity is already committed under long-term contracts [indiscernible] hard currency. Rather first, second-generation ethanol will play a crucial role in the global decarbonizing initiative. Raizen has become the world first producer to supply ethanol to the United States for the production of Safi, sustainable aviation fuel. This confirms just in the beginning of our vision that will position ethanol as a key driver in energy transition. We are committed to maintaining the healthiness of our balance sheet while preserving investment-grade status and following with strong discipline our capital commitments.
Now let's dive into the financial highlights from yesterday [indiscernible] results. And it's important to highlight that our leverage ratio dropped to completely align with our capital management commitments as we have disclosed in the last Raizen day. Our free cash flow to equity has seen a significant improvement, nearly 3x higher year-on-year. I would like to point out the positive contribution from our operating cash flow, driven by improved operating margins in Mobility, sales of sugar and ethanol inventories, and the advances from clients during the period, notably through the operation we announced as part of our E2G program. It's crucial to emphasize the benefits of monetizing tax credits, strengthening our balance sheet. We see all the details in the explanatory [ node-10 ] in the financial statements.
In terms of cash flow from investments, we are managing the pace of expenditures aligned with the capital priorities, with a special focus on the turning towards agricultural productivity recovery. Construction of the E2G plants and asset integrity in Argentina refinery are also priorities. Regarding financial activities cash flow, we have been managing liabilities during the period, including recent green bond issuances and the tender offer for our -- the bond 2027. This aligns with our commitment to extending the average debt maturity as part of our strategic objectives, also mentioned in our last Raizen day.
Thank you, Phillipe. Yesterday, we released the guidance for '24/'25 crop year. We are enthusiastic about the prospects that lie ahead in the upcoming season. While we continue to face volatility and challenges, we are poised to see tangible results from the investments made in the recent years. And this is already reflected in the projections, indicating an expansion in the primary cash generation. I would like to take the opportunity to highlight some key assumptions incorporated into the guidance. First, our Journey, [ towers ] agriculture productivity recovery has put us in a privileged position for the year. While initial market projections indicated roughly decrease of 10% in crushing for the center-south region in Brazil, Raizen expects to have similar or even better harvest compared to the last year, despite the relatively less favorable conditions of weather in this year.
Second, our E2G program is a reality. And by the end of the crop season, we will have four operational plants producing and selling over 80 million liters of cellulosic ethanol. Third, in mobility, we are considering a new level of profitability in Brazil, with margins around BRL 150 per cubic meter, while also focusing on sustaining profitability in our LATAM operations. Fourth, one major highlight. We are starting a new phasing reason by maintaining the same level of consolidated EBITDA for the upcoming crop year while preserving our capital allocation priorities. This will pave the new way for a scenario of primary cash generation, reducing the interest load over the balance sheet, and adding value for our shareholders going forward.
To wrap up, as usual, I would like to share the balance between opportunities and risks for the upcoming crop season. On the opportunity side, the highlight in the advancement of the Shell No-Main grade field program for Mobility with a focus on enhancing profitability for both Raizen and our dealers, as well as managing market volatility. Another significant point is the reduction in interest rates, contributing to increased business generation, fostering even better capital allocation and de-risking our balance sheet. The expense management program called [ Conta Convivo ] has already resulted in over BRL 250 million in expense reduction within the company through matrix management by packages and entities. The potential of this program is to more than double these savings over the next few years.
Lastly, as announced in April, we have been progressing with the -- recycling assets within our business portfolio, which we continue to demonstrate our capital discipline and strategy execution. Regarding short-term challenges, I emphasize the volatility and external factors that may impact our business, such as the pace of the ethanol price recovery and the attention to the macroeconomic scenario in Argentina. In the Brazilian fuel sector, we will maintain our vigilance to combat tax evasion and advocate for fair market competition, working together with the ICL. As I mentioned earlier, we are entering in a new phase where we are beginning to see the results of the capital invested in the recent years, including: first, for the E2G, the ramp-up of Bonfim and deployment of the plants 3 to 6 that are already under construction, Barra, Univalem, Vale de Rosario and Gasa.
Second, our second biogas plant at Costa Pinto biopark is set to be completed later this year. Third, improvements in the Argentina refinery in product quality process, a new gas turbine and the cracking catalytic unit. After those investments, which we expect to conclude until 2025, our business in Argentina will demand ever lower CapEx and deliver a strong cash generation. Fourth, in logistics and distribution, a new field distribution terminal in Santa Rey, enhancing the efficiency in the north of Brazil and increasing our competitiveness. Fifth, agriculture and industrial productivity with operational leverage due to the fixed cost dilution, sustaining our [indiscernible] performance and driving the production for maximizing sugar products. This will increase our capacity, efficiency and value generation in the coming year. Last but not least, I would like to emphasize that we made significant progresses in our sustainability agenda. We are not becoming a green champion by chance, but applying non-negotiable principles in safety, respecting our communities attending highest standards for environmental management, fighting against illegality in the fuel distribution sector, and an even stronger and diverse governance. In our release, we have a detailed section about raising sustainability Journey, along with our website, providing information about our performance and commitments. Now we can move on to the Q&A session, where our CEO, Ricardo Mussa, will be joining us. Thank you.
We will now begin the Q&A section for investors and analysts. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Luiz Carvalho with UBS.
Carlos, Mussa, Phillipe. The first one, it's about the -- I'd say, the CapEx rationalization, right? So if you can try to -- I don't know, help us to understand a bit better how much of the CapEx will be from agriculture and how this is sustainable in the, I would say, the mid- to long-term in the case of the reduction and what will be the impact for the agricultural yield? The second one, it's mostly about the guidance. You reiterated between 14.5% and 15.5%. We would like to understand a bit better what are the risks that you see to this level, given that the last 2 years, the company was a bit -- I would say, a bit below the guidance. So just trying to understand what are the potential risks here on this level?
Thank you, Luiz. Ricardo Moussa here. On the CapEx rationale, if you look, we are coming to a point now that, for instance, we end up the construction of the biogas plant, the refinery in Argentina, also the majority of the investments are behind us. We have invested in sugar, the refinery of sugar is also ending. So a lot of here -- are ending a lot of investments that we did in the past that were coming to a point of reduction on those CapEx. E2G is being preserved, of course, but we are seeing a reduction on those investments. A lot of things that we did, for instance, on the Mobility side, we invest on the terminal in Santarem last year, that we don't have this year. On the agricultural side, we are not reducing our investments. So, of course, we had a peak of investments on recovery of the plantations. Now we are getting to the end of the cycle. So you should expect a little bit lower on the CapEx for the cultural side. But there's no -- there is nothing here that we are reducing on the planting side, it is just the end of the cycle of recovery of the sugarcane fields that we had in the past, but we are coming to an end. So if you look into our CapEx, I think I say that all the time. Now it's time for us to harvest a little bit more, and that's everything that we planted for the past 3 years. Now we're starting to get more and more from that.
On the guidance, I think this is -- this year, it started, I think, in a very good position on our sugarcane field. So of course, there is risk, climate risk, by the end if there is too much dry. But right now, we have a great start of the season, so I don't see much risk on that, but it's still climate risk by the end of the season. On the fuels business, I think the informality could drive margins down. But again, we are seeing -- we're starting this quarter with better balance, especially on the diesel side, and we had a great win when we ended the Amapa advantage, illegal one, and they're already reflecting on better margins in the market. So I think that's the legality on the fuels business and also the climate risk. I think ethanol price, I see more upside than the downside, what we put in the plan. But of course, there are some changes on that, that might affect. But I'm seeing a less risky environment compared to the previous years. Last year, I think ethanol was the biggest low-light with the price reduction with more than BRL 1 per liter, 1,000 -- we are speaking per liter that almost $3 billion less coming from ethanol. But this year, I don't see the same impact. Also we are already seeing on the first quarter a little bit better prices of ethanol than we had in our plan.
Okay. And just if I can make a follow-up on the first on the capital allocation. One, Moussa, over the past couple of years, Raizen made significant investments, both in Argentina, on the downstream in E2G and also on the acquisition of Biosev, which basically I think that the returns were a bit lower than initially expected, right? So what -- with this new capital allocation strategy, trying to do a management liability management of the debt and reduce a bit the CapEx? What are the results or returns improvement that you expect over the next couple of years?
Luiz, I totally disagree what you said. What we do here is the post-investment review of those investments. We are delivering more than we initially anticipated from those investments. So they are even better than we anticipated, prices are better, even if we had some CapEx increase on E2G, but were more than compensated by prices. On Biosev, one, the great results from what we had initially, sugar prices are much higher than we anticipated. So the returns are better than we expected, and still that we're looking ahead at the same pace. So there is no change in us, to be honest, on the -- on our strategy and how the capital is allocated. What we are doing now is, of course, interest rates are higher than we had before, and we have been more disciplined on the capital side, recycling more portfolios. We are going to see more and more portfolio recycling. We have already announced some distribution generation sales. We should expect more on the recycling portfolio. But the returns are where we wanted to be a little bit higher than we expected.
Our next question comes from Bruno Montanari with Morgan Stanley.
First one, there has been a good improvement on your equivalent sugar cash cost. Would you expect costs to be sustainable at current levels? Or is there still scope for further reductions? Or if you envision any inflationary pressure as well? And on the second one, on your free cash generation, could you provide the detail of how much cash you raised with tax credit recovery in this specific quarter? And also confirm if the cash advance from the future E2G sales. Is the entire $617 million that you announced on the material effect or if there's still more advances to be received at this point?
Bruno, I'll take the first one. Carlos will take the second one. Related to the cost dilution, we should expect even more cost dilution moving forward -- we -- as you remember, we are now -- the fourth cut is being fixed. So still, I would say, more than 80% of our sugarcane is already where we want it to be. So you should expect more cost dilution moving forward. We are putting a huge effort in the company to reduce costs this year compared -- on nominal terms to the previous year. So we are very excited on the cost side. It should be even more diluted and improving. Of course, we have to take into account that the weather last year was fantastic. That's why you see the market forecasting a 10% reduction. We are pretty much the same as we were last year. But you should expect a better cost structure this year compared to the previous year. Carlos, please?
About the free cash flow generation from monetization of tax credits according to the low 10%, we had in this quarter about BRL 600 million in monetization. This was less than we had performed in the last 3 quarters, that was a base of $1 billion, but we expect to accelerate this monetization in this year, especially due to the two things. Now we have more tax credits from Raizen Energia. That's a subsidiary of Raizen SCR. And as we have announced, the gain, the success that the company had in the court and over [ Hesepa ] Federal in Brazil regarding the exclusion of the state VAT from the BISCOFINS base of calculation. And this will bring additional BRL 1.8 billion, our ability to monetize that strategy is proven to the market and to the -- internally in the company. And naturally, we are getting the reimbursement of this amount of BRL 1.8 billion in the next years.
Regarding the cash advance, I confirm that we have recognized the full amount of $617 million as we have announced. And naturally, due to the intimacy that we have with our clients, we are engaging other opportunities, but this will depend of the commercial conditions behind this transaction due to its nature, but it's fair to assume that we will continue to do so.
Our next question comes from Gabriel Barra with Citi Bank.
Can you hear me?
Yes, we can.
Yes. Hello?
Sorry, Gabriel, we can't hear you now.
My first one is, you mentioned that the company expectation -- I think that Carlos mentioned this during the presentation that for distribution business this year, it's supposed to be close the average of BRL 150 per cubic meter. But even in this chance scenario that we have seen for the first quarter of 2024, the company reached this BRL 160 per cubic meter. So it was -- I know it seems to be a bit conservative to me. And my point is, what's maybe we are missing here in terms of -- or even what's the upside risk here for the year for Raizen? The second one is regarding the E2G, some follow-ups here. The first one is what's the company expectation in terms of production for this year? Now we have Bonfim and Costa Pinto at the same time. Bonfim ramping up production and to have the full year of Bonfim. My point is what should expect mainly for Bonfim for the whole year production? And the second one, on E2G, if I may, it's [indiscernible] price, right? We have seen the company de-risking material volume of this future production with the anticipation, with some contracts. But if you could give us some sense here what's the current level of E2G in the spot market, only to have, let's say, a fair value to keep in mind. So those are my points.
Thank you, Gabriel. To your first question here, we are seeing, of course, the margins of the Mobility business. It's -- we are doing a great job. I think we, structurally, in a different level of margin, as I always said that we would be. I think I agree with you, we have, hopefully, some upside on what we're seeing on the plan right now. We have a very strong marketing program this year. Our offer has never been stronger as we are seeing right now. We did a partnership with Sena. We launched the Shell Box, it's really booming. So we are very confident, especially on the non-main grade fuels that we're going to deliver. So I think the risk here and why we put the $150 is the informality. Gabriel, everything equal to the same to the previous year, we should even see better margins this year compared to the previous year. We had a better start on the first quarter, I think, compared to the one before. But there's going to be volatility and illegality. That's why we didn't put a higher number there. If we succeed on the ICL and to reduce the informality in this market, I think we should see a higher -- much higher numbers. So that's why we are still on the safe side on this one.
On E2G, Gabriel, production, of course, remember that we have the two -- the third and the fourth plant we will start late on this year, late in the third quarter and beginning of the fourth quarter of this year. And we should see the ramp-up of them. So we are expecting here above 80 million liters from those plants. But let's see. I think there was a good start of Bonfim. So we're very excited about it, probably on the Raizen day we want to share good news and good surprise on that one. Price wise, Gabriel, it hasn't -- on the spot prices today, we're still seeing much higher and very high numbers, about EUR 1,000 per cubic meter. Not much of a market there yet because we are the only one producing. We have seen the change, especially in -- now U.K. announced a new seeding on the price that is much higher than before. So we are seeing demand coming from U.S. to produce sustainable aviation fuel from our ethanol. Second-generation ethanol to supply Europe at a very, very high price. So as I said before, we don't see much risk on the price, even the spot prices are better than our contract prices. So demand is still there. So we are still very confident, Gabriel. I think right now, we're going to see E2G, we will start delivering cash. So it's going to be a good year for E2G and start to show in the bottom line already good results.
Our next question comes from Pedro Soares with BTG...
Yes, I have a couple of follow-ups here on the Sugar and Renewables segment. The first one, just what are the assumptions that you guys have for area growth, in this crushing guidance of 82 million-85 million tons. Mussa already pointed for the optimism related to the improvement in productivity, but it would be nice hearing what to expect as well in terms of area considering that last year, there was some concern that El Nino would cause range and present a higher crushing volume. But in the end, we saw the opposite, right, because of the dry weather at the end of the year. So it would be useful to put all of this into context. And my second question on costs, also a follow-up. Mussa, you highlighted that you expect some improvement, as well, during this next crop. But let me try to rephrase what -- in the -- does the implied EBITDA assumption for sugar and ethanol on your guidance, right? I assume that cane costs will remain the same? Or downward already in 2025 harvest year? That's it.
Pedro, on the area here, we are reducing a little bit the planting area because now we're getting to the final stages of the recovery of the sugarcane. But the total harvest area is going to be a little bit higher because we have planted and didn't harvest everything last year. So you can see in our numbers last year, Pedro, that our productivity rates increased by - if I'm not wrong - 23% and our production increased less. That means that we have harvest -- we didn't harvest everything that we had to harvest last year. So you are going to see more area being harvested this year that we planted last year. That's why you see our production remaining at a very, very good level.
The big assumptions here on the -- what we are doing on the -- it hasn't changed much, Pedro, from what we had previously. So what we are seeing here the costs are pretty much going down. If you take diluting the cost for more area, so we are expecting a cost reduction and therefore, a higher EBITDA because of that of the cost dilution, better price of sugar. We expect this year to have a little bit better prices on ethanol as well. So I don't see much risk if looking to sugar prices, we already hedged the majority of our production at a very good price, at 6% above what we had last year. The crop base this year should be less than last year, should improve, also, our EBITDA. So when you look into our target of last year, it was affected by crop days. So you could see a reduction in our CapEx and -- sorry, and also impacted our EBITDA. But for this year, Pedro, we are going to see a more area being harvested better sugar prices, a little bit better ethanol prices and cost reduction. So it's a good -- that's why you see the expansion of EBITDA on the renewable side with not much risk. I think that's a very important point. We are not considering a very high price of ethanol for those improvements on cash flow generation for this year.
Very clear, Mussa. If I may, just very quickly here, just changing subjects on LATAM mobility. Just wondered, but the margin there has varied a lot between $30 and $100 per cubic meter over the past quarters. Of course, there's a macro top-down context as well. But what level do you guys consider reasonable to assume a sustainable [indscernible]?
No, a very good point, Pedro. I think the 70 to 75 should be a good assumption. I have to check here with my team. But of course, when we have the macro -- we had a spike on the margins. But I think that's really -- I think for me, the best thing, if you look into Argentina, we are doing everything right. We are finalizing -- not many people understood that, but we made a huge investment on the refinery. So we are coming to this final cycle of investment and we're starting to collect the benefits of those improvements on the refinery. And on the market side, we are in very good shape. We gained market share. Our offer is fantastic. Shell Box entered there very strongly, and we are collecting those very good integrated margins that we have seen. So also not a great start of the year for Argentina. Same thing happened to Paraguay. Paraguay, the margins are even higher. And we have a record year last year, a great year. This year what's happening, Pedro, is that Argentina was putting a lot of pressure into Paraguay exporting at discount to Paraguay with millennial actions that is not happening anymore. So our volumes in Paraguay are really, really booming. Volume reduction in Argentina, that is not a bad thing because we had to import at the loss in Argentina. And now there is no such loss on the import anymore because the volume was reduced. In Paraguay that has a higher margin is increasing and expanding the volume because of the change from Argentina to Paraguay. There is no more fields going from the borders from Argentina to Paraguay anymore. So it's a good start also for LATAM.
Next question from Isabella Simonato with Bank of America.
I want to go back a little bit on E2G, and pretty much, if you guys could share the lessons learned at this point from the ramp-up of the second plant? And we used to -- you say about bottlenecks, eventually to accelerate the pipeline that went beyond, of course, capital restrictions about suppliers and et cetera. So I wanted to hear a more updated view about the supply chain and the required maintenance for the plant at this point? And second, regarding the anticipation with Shell, of the receivables, if you could just detail a little bit more how we see the accounting of this -- of the cost of it going forward? I think it would be helpful for us to follow.
Isabella. We had a lot of lessons learned from the start-up of Bofim. I think, again split in two parts: the construction of the plant. So we learned a lot from the construction. So we had -- we built that plant even without having all the engineering ready. Now all the plants have everything ready, [ they fell tree ] on all plants. So we have, of course, in much better shape on the construction side compared to Bonfim. So we're expecting also to improve an efficiency on the CapEx for that. The startup, the only -- it was phenomenal, the start-up. The only problem that we had, Isabella, was in something very, very -- I would say, simple, that was not related to the technology of E2G, was a filter that we use on E1G facility. That was a surprise that we had because our supplier tried to innovate something that he shouldn't. So that was the lesson learned, but it has nothing to do with the challenges of second generation [indiscernible], that's why we're very happy because the pretreatment part that took us almost 4 years to get ready on Costa Pinto plant. We managed to do in less than 3 weeks on Bonfim. So that was really the crucial point that was very happy that we managed to get that quickly. That's why I'm excited. I think we -- as you mentioned now is but we have much more spare parts. We have -- all the plants are similar. So the maintenance cost should go down. Again, very early stages on the potential of E2G. I think we should follow -- you should follow very closely the production on the 24th now of May going to be a big inauguration of the plant with the authorities from Brazilian [indiscernible] there going to talk about it. So again, Isabella, it's about very, very early stages. Carlos, can you talk about anticipation of the contract?
Yes. Regarding the anticipation of the contract is we treat in accounting as set in the IFRS-15. Whatever, due to the long-term anticipation, we need to recognize the charges on the discount implied in this anticipation as financial results as much as we have the upside in prices that will recognize on an accrual basis over the sequence of the monetization of this contract. But I can assure you and our auditors already recognizes that we are treating this as IFRS-15 accounting structure.
Next question from Lucas Ferreira with JPMorgan.
Can you hear me?
Yes, we can.
[Inaudible]
So my first question on the ethanol market, which has been probably one of the hits on the sector lately. So we just wanted to get your views on the supply and demand for ethanol. If you see ethanol prices getting closer again to the parity with gasoline at the pump levels. And also on the international markets, you're always being able to price a premium. So how -- what's the outlook for that? I read in the guidance that this remains the idea. But we've been seeing, sort of, at least from your data that this premium has been narrowing. So what's the outlook for this year, for 2024/'25? And then the second question, a follow-up on E2G. Since a lot of lessons learned, probably ramp up coming ahead of expectations, a big de-risking on the preparational side, right? Both on the construction and the operations. So my question is, Mussa, if you also could be able to do some steps forward in terms of licensing the technology? If you're receiving positive feedback from the industry in general, this is maybe become like a possibility for the midterm, I would say. Yes, we'll be -- I would appreciate.
Lucas. On the ethanol market, I think the major change -- the difference between this year and the previous year is that we started the last crop season with high price of ethanol and low consumption at the pump. If you look into this season, we started with the consumption at the pump 60% to 65%, almost 70% higher than the previous year. So consumption right now is very strong and still prices are below parity in many, many states. So I think the major change or the major difference between those two crop seasons is the demand side. So demand right now is very high, even higher than the corn-ethanol additional demand supply will come from this year. So our expectations are to here, Lucas, one that the shape of the demand is very strong right now. We don't see much -- if you look into price recovery, we are in the middle of, now, the harvest is very strong. So there should be a lot of supply of ethanol right now, and that's a good thing because if price recover very fast, we will not see good prices during the off season. So I think the expectation this year is that we are going to see better prices during the off-season because of the demand. There is no way there's going to be enough supply if we continue to this level.
And the second point, Lucas, is the prices of gasoline. Brazil are below import parity prices. So right now, there is room for increase on Petrobras prices. So we don't see any risk right now on gasoline price reduction only if there is only upside. So it's a much better scenario, Lucas, and that's not a small number. 60% - 70% more consumption makes a big difference throughout the season, and that's what's happening right now. And the other thing on the ethanol side, we are seeing more and more on the north of Brazil, northeast of Brazil, I think ethanol is becoming a reality. So it should displace more gasoline in that region. That's why we invested a lot on the logistics to the north and northeast of Brazil.
E2G, we are -- of course, this is -- that's the goal, Lucas, to license the technology. We are looking to places like U.S. U.S. has the inflation reduction. Actually, we're very active in Louisiana and in Florida talking to sugarcane growers to license that. It's moving in the right direction. Of course, our main focus was put in place our own technology and our own plans. Now with four plants up and running this year, little bit it's easier to convince other companies to adopt the technology because they have a proven technology, and they can see the volume. They can see the numbers, the profitability. So I think it's just a matter of time for us to start licensing that not only in Brazil but also outside Brazil.
A super quick question on the licensing. Is your pretreatment process easily adaptable to different types of sugarcane like orbegoz(sic [ Orbegozo ], in terms of like chemical and also physical properties to Bagasse. So how easy it is to that the technology like in India, U.S., Brazil, presume different types of weather and climate?
It works -- what we learned, and a very good question, Lucas. It works with sugarcane to gas. We don't have any proof of evidence that it will work with other types of biomass. So the main point here has to be connected to a sugarcane facility has to be fresh sugarcane to gas, and that's exactly what we have in India and U.S. There's not much difference on the sale losses of the Bagasse in India or U.S., pretty much the same. I think the challenges in in U.S. are different from India. In U.S., there are sugar companies not -- they are not used to the energy sector. So it takes a while to educate them about the energy sector. In India, it's much more scattered, much more challenging to have the scale necessary to make it feasible on the cost side. So those are the challenges. Brazil is the easiest one because Brazil is right there. So we have a lot of sugar mills in Brazil that are able to adapt, or to adopt the technology, and the market is there. So I think if you ask my opinion, I think the U.S. is the front running because of the Inflation Reduction Act. They have a very cheap source of capital, but Brazil should be the place where the expansion is easier. So I think U.S. will be related to the finance shape that we already very, I would say, active in the U.S., but Brazil is a no-brainer for other companies to start moving. So this is a very, I would say, turning at crucial year for ETG because the volume and the plants are operational. So there's going to be a lot of, I think, visiting companies are already calling me, want to visit to talk. And I think it's going to be a natural that Brazilian sugar mills will start looking to E2G and license the technology from us.
Next question from Pedro Fonseca with XP.
Mussa, Carlos Phillipe, congratulations. My first one is related to taxes. You already mentioned in the earnings release, but if you could please give us more detail on the increase of the effective tax rate in the quarter? And what should we expect for the '24/'25 year? That's my first one. And the second one is related to capital allocation. The company already announced the sale of 31 solar -- solar plants recently. And Carlos mentioned that we should expect more divestments in the short to medium term. So my question is on which front does the company believe there is a greater potential for portfolio recycling? That's my second one.
Would you start for the second one and then...
Yes. On the second one, the capital allocation. Of course, it's -- you should expect more, Pedro, on our side here. We are very focused on reducing our debt and increasing our cash flow. So reducing the interest is a key element to us. It's easier when we look into the power segment because we don't -- we have made a lot of investment on distribution generation. We still have more to come. So I think you should expect more coming on that direction, similar to what we have announced more than that. Of course, we cannot say what else is on the table here because we have on a lot of M&A going on. So we cannot share that with you, Pedro. But I think the point here, we are not going to do anything that is strategic, but we have a very -- we are a very large company. We have a very big asset base. We have a lot of things that we can recycle to invest and allocate better the capital. So we should expect more discipline in our side this year, for sure.
Pedro, going to the second question about taxes. For this quarter, we had a negative effect, which means of credit. But for the year, you are right, we went from an effective rate from 23.3% to 61.9%, but I would like to highlight two points that distorted this indicator. First is the decision to distribute dividends under the interest over on capital, taking advantage of the ending of the regulation regarding this. And second, defer the taxes not even recognize it. These deferred taxes are under our books, but not recognized in the balance sheet yet due to the ability of the company to compensate corporate taxes going forward. I believe that in a normalization for your models, it's fair to assume something around 25%, right? But the cash implied over this taxation in the next 5 years, tends to 0, okay?
Next question from Marcos Matsutani with Aster Capital.
Guys, considering the -- considering the midpoint of the guidance of EBITDA minus CapEx, it is on to BRL 4 billion. And I concluded that Raizen responding to at least $1 billion of recurring free cash flow. In addition to that, we -- if we add the assets they already announced, and the debt credit monetization is becoming months, Raizen could deliver a couple of billions of free cash flow. So my first question is, does it make sense? And how does success look like in terms of free cash flow in 2025 fiscal year?
Marcos, and thank you for the question. Your assumption is fair. It's -- I agree with your way to see our free cash flow, which means we have primary free cash flow of $4 billion in average. Then you have the effect of the financial expenses in cash, and this will -- in connection with our tax monetization and our working capital management will release more cash that will be oriented for reduction of the debt. It's important to assume that we are under a growth process, and we need to connect this growth in E2G in productivity, it's in Mobility with de-risking our balance sheet, which means reduction of the interest expenses going forward. Having this said, we will continue to analyze opportunities first in the distributed generation in Brazil. We have more projects to be sold, and we are negotiating this. And naturally, Mussa is putting in place a portfolio recycling view in the company to protect our balance sheet and again, grow with lower risk as possible.
The Q&A session is over. We would like to hand the floor back to Mr. Ricardo Mussa for his final remarks.
Thank you for the questions. It has been a great year, one of the best years, I think the best year ever we had on Raizen. Very excited now. We -- as I tell my team here, we've been, I think, in our best shape operationally. We had our agricultural part is unbelievably well. So I think it's behind us the problems that we had in agricultural side. So very proud of the achievements from the team. On the Mobility side, has been also structurally moving to a new direction of the margins. We have the best marketing program we ever had in Raizen. So I was with my dealers last week in Bahia, talking about the year was phenomenal, the energy. So we're very excited about it. The E2G this year is a crucial point for E2G. I think we are turning now into a cash generation cash machine. A lot of the investments that we did in the past 3 years are coming to reality now. We put a lot of money in Argentina, a lot of money on E2G, recovering the plantations, now it's time to deliver. So I think the company now is going to a much more harvesting season than planting season. So we are focused on cash generation. We are focused on recycling the portfolio and still growing the business as we always promise to. So we are very excited. I think this is the year for us to deliver even more. I see our share price is really, really low. So a huge potential upside. So we are very committed now to deliver the plan and very excited. I think this is the year for us. Thank you guys, thank you everyone.
The Raizen S.A. Fourth Quarter of the 2023/'24 Crop Year conference call is concluded. The Investor Relations department is available to answer further questions you may have. Thank you, and have a good afternoon.