Tres Tentos Agroindustrial SA

BOVESPA:TTEN3

Earnings Call Transcript

[Operator]

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the video conference call to announce results for Q3 '24 for Três Tentos. Joining us today, we have Mr. Luiz Osorio Dumoncel, CEO and IRO; Joao Marcelo Dumoncel, COO; Cristiano Costa, CFO; and Eduardo Motter, Três Tentos' IR Manager.

We'd like to inform you that this video conference is being recorded and will be made available at the company's IR website. where the respective slide deck can also be found. [Operator Instructions]

Before moving on, we would like to say that forward-looking statements made during the company's presentation concerning the company's business outlook, financial and operating targets and also to the company's future growth potential are based on beliefs and expectations of the company's management, driven by information currently available. Such forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties and therefore, depend on circumstances that may not materialize. Investors should have in mind that general economic conditions, agribusiness conditions and other operating factors might affect the company's future performance and thus lead to results that will differ significantly from those expressed in these forward-looking statements.

I'd like now to turn the conference over to Mr. Luiz Osorio Dumoncel. Please, Mr. Dumoncel, you may proceed.

[Luiz Dumoncel, executive]

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. I'd like to thank you all for once again joining our earnings call. In this quarter, we're going to be talking about this record revenue, record profit level that we achieved in this third quarter, considering the past 9 years. Talking about growth, specifically across our segments. That means talking about the strength of the whole ecosystem that we have. So when we talk about inputs, grains and industry. We've been talking about this since the -- since day 1, and we have always emphasized that those 3 pillars provide support for the whole ecosystem.

As to the increasing volume in grain origination, one thing we'll address during the presentation. In this quarter, this is what really drove the company for in terms of volume and that is a response provided by a very efficient industry, which goes to the third bullet point on the screen, as you can see on the slide, but also speaks to domestic and external operations, which is quite efficient. And origination is yet another contact we have with our customers and, of course, strengthens all the other pillars, inputs and industry.

Industry does add a lot of value to the company, in terms of bringing things closer to the field, and we are increasingly sure, confident of the way we have followed and we have strengthened all of that. And we have 2 biodiesel plants, and bioprocessing for corn is in the pipeline, all things we're going to be talking about as we go over the presentation this morning, especially looking at the guidance for 2025.

The current moment for agribusiness and what we've been doing in the company's performance, all of that combine to strengthen our way forward. We know the strength that agribusiness has in Brazil. We know how important it is for mankind to have safe food and energy providers. So we need to be ready for that. We're going to be discussing all of that moving forward.

On the next slide, we see large numbers, the highlights for the company. In Q3 we had a growth of 45% and year-to-date, 50%. So reaching those BRL 9 billion in the first 9 months of the year knowing that prices varied significantly, that is evidence to us that we are doing the right thing. BRL 9 billion gross profit, which is very significant, BRL 1.4 billion, a net profit of BRL 620 million, a growth of 55%, as you can see on the slide, that's truly an important indicator for us that provides us with the necessary reliance that we know what we're doing. At the same time, we know the size, the magnitude of the responsibility that we have in terms of continuing working side-by-side with growers, farmers across Brazil.

I will turn the floor over to Joao Marcelo, and he will be talking about the numbers, operating figures, planning. And then Cristiano will go deeper on the company's numbers for Q3 and for the 9 years. So Marcelo, over to you.

[Joao Dumoncel, executive]

Good morning, everyone. It's always great to be here for the earnings call. Talk about yet another quarter, without a doubt a quarter where we have a lot to celebrate. To add to what Luiz Osorio said in terms of results and breaking those numbers down across our different areas of operation, to shed some light on the different pillars.

We -- as you can see on the slide, our industry and grains pillars really driving numbers up. When we look at those segments, those pillars, starting with inputs, out of the 3 pillars is the one which is more stable, if you will. You can see both in terms of revenue and in terms of gross profit. We have been gaining some ground but in a more stable fashion. But the good news is that maintaining those results right now is in and of itself an important result. We've been through a very challenging period.

In terms of the input retail scenario, we had prices going down. So Três Tentos has managed to overcome or at the very least maintain revenue and increase volume at the same time, slowly but surely and gaining market share, gaining the confidence on the part of farmers. At the very least, maintaining the same growth rate, growing revenue and growing profits or at least maintaining them at a very stable platform year-to-date.

Then as for the other 2 segments, grains next, where the company saw an important growth in the quarter and in the year-to-date. 65% year-to-date in terms of revenue and in terms of gross profit, a quarter with phenomenal results, 189% of growth reflecting across the year-to-date, a 76% growth in gross profit. So really, really amazing numbers. The larger volumes, as I said, some recovery in prices vis-a-vis Q2, not as significant when compared to Q3 2023, but still and some gain coming from product mix, which helped us reach this good result.

And for the third pillar, industry, the last one on the slide, the best scenario of all, an important growth, both in revenue, a growth of 45% in the quarter and 66% of growth year-to-date, exceeding the level of BRL 5 billion, as you can see, and also a significant result, 150% in the quarter in gross profit and 171% in growth year-to-date reaching something close to BRL 1 billion in adjusted gross profit only under the industry pillar. So of course, that reflects a good moment for biodiesel, which has been delivering good results, has been consolidating in terms of legal frameworks.

Now biodiesel we've seen as the fuel of the future. So it is an uptrending industry. Starting 2023, we still had our plant in Vera being ramped up in terms of volume. And now, 1 year later and throughout '24 have stabilized production, having reached full potential. We're reaching very good levels of performance. Just as in Rio Grande do Sul, where we have been working and delivering great results, with an occupancy level for the 3 plants at a very high level, cutting costs and making us yet even more competitive.

On the next slide, as I mentioned before, SG&A has been a topic in which we have been dedicating some time in previous calls, you have witnessed all that. We have been paying close attention to those numbers. A highlight here is clearly, again, we've been enjoying, especially in year-to-date, numbers in terms of expenses for personnel and other expenses as well. So those are expenses that we have been scaling up. So they represent conversely less in terms of a share of revenue. As for logistics, when you compare year-to-date numbers, we see a growth in percentage, which, of course, is driven by the Mato Grosso operation. The Vera plant was not operating last year, now it is, so that reflects in that number for logistics.

But the highlight is when you look at the Q3 last year vis-a-vis Q3 this year, we see a growth, right? And when you compare to the second quarter of this year, so those 2 indicators show improvements. As I said, even with the grains and meal operations from Mato Grosso gaining share in the company's total volume.

On the next slide, we can see this might be the most important slide for today's call. Adjusted EBITDA, which is a translation of what we've been doing whenever we have a chance to talk to you analysts vis-a-vis our objectives. It is a growth company and a results-driven company. And you can see that in numbers on this specific slide. We've had robust growth, around 50% in terms of revenue both in the quarter and the year-to-date numbers. And especially a growth in margins, EBITDA margin and the adjusted EBITDA, we are growing on both fronts, something close to 200% in the quarter and above 100% in year-to-date terms. That comes to reinforce what we've been saying, which is that the company is in a very important place, gaming efficiency, gaining operational excellence, gaining in a better positioning in the market. All the adjustments we've made as we pursue our purpose, our mission, which is work around SG&A in a most efficient manner. And that all translates in numbers and figures, as you can see here on this slide, that shows we are able to deliver those -- that growth in growth and results, revenue and profit.

I'd like now to ask Cristiano to take over to provide us with a more specific view in terms of numbers. So Cristiano, over to you.

[Cristiano Costa, executive]

Good morning, good morning, everyone. I'll carry on. I'll be touching upon the growth and how this growth has happened according to plan. We closed Q3 '24 with a net debt of BRL 149 million. When we put that into perspective vis-a-vis our EBITDA for the past 12 months,[ BRL 1.120 billion ]. The number is 0.13x the EBITDA, 0.13, which is a figure that makes us very comfortable. We understand this is a market scenario which is challenging to raise in the market. So we use all the levers we have, all the avenues we have to make sure that all those resources needed for our growth always bring the least cost for the company.

Also within a strategy, an overall strategy of building a debt profile with a very elongated term. So the total of our debt, BRL 1.9 billion is broken down long term and short term, as you can see on the slide, that allows the company to have some reassurance to plan for the next years. So that growth, which was just described along those first 9 months, this quarter, specifically, does not bring along more debt. We know that we have a challenge, of course. We have a new growth cycle. We have the investments ahead, still things under control.

On the next slide, we're going to be talking about the net debt variation. BRL 149 million of net debt at the close of the first 9 months. Throughout this period, we had a very strong cash generation to the tune of BRL 653 million as the green bar shows, which more than offset our need for working capital, which is slightly higher now, especially because the increase of our grain inventory. But the cash generation more than offset that need for working capital and also our CapEx, our industry investments for ethanol in Porto Alegre do Norte and the new stores and outlets. And as also expansions of the industries, all of that is under that CapEx umbrella, but everything well planned as it has been shown before. So we understand we are in tune with our planning, in tune with our disbursement schedule.

I'd like to turn the floor back to Joao Marcelo for his final remarks. He'll be talking about our CapEx, especially for the corn-based ethanol industry in Mato Grosso on the next slide.

[Joao Dumoncel, executive]

As I said, earlier in the year, we reported our new growth cycle, as we call it, our project to grow for the next years. And those investments or the main investments among those is the investment on the corn ethanol plant being built in Porto Alegre do Norte. And it's important to report to you where the civil works stands. This is a picture of the site, our silage area, our -- the [ pens ]. The most important is that we are within schedule and moving on to finish that up by the end of next year. We have contracted all the different works necessary, materials, civil construction, equipment. We have already reached 70% of the work already being contracted.

And as I said, work is on schedule across the different fronts, the multiple fronts happening at the same time, both in terms of civil works, equipment assembly and finalizing some earthworks as well. That investment was reported during a material fact announced yesterday, an increase of about BRL 120 million on top of the initial figure, and that increase came along with the announcement of an increase in capacity, which we added to the company. So we have optimized the design, we made some adjustments which we understood would be very interesting in terms of cost-effectiveness. We have expanded capacity by 30% as we added that figure in terms of investment which is slightly above 10% of the original value. So it makes us even more competitive. And this was -- leads us to expect an even better response as it becomes operational at the end of next year.

We can also look at the next slide to reinforce that, in addition to the industry cycle for this new corn ethanol industry in Porto Alegre do Norte. As we look for '24 and '25, as we look for the outlook for those coming periods, we are carrying on with our growth trajectory. We continue to open new stores as we have reported before. We continue to tirelessly seek, pursue good margins. Through '24, we have managed to achieve an important consolidation levels for our operating margins across all segments. We still have a challenge to improve our input retail brand. We are trying to recover historical levels, but still moving forward. We remain very optimistic around biofuels, as I said before, both in terms of legal frameworks and the outlook for the future for biofuels, both in Brazil and, of course, in a broader view across the world, biofuels are very strong or play a very strong part in the overall economy.

And that, of course, reflects and that investment in Porto Alegre do Norte for the ethanol plant and also biodiesel, as it was reported in our material fact announced yesterday, in addition to the installed capacity we already have, we are moving forward to increase current capacity, which will certainly bring about better volumes, better numbers, more consolidated, more robust numbers around our fuels operations and as we always say, in all our calls, the strength of our ecosystem. This ecosystem has proven to be a winning model, a winning model that adds value arising from that combination of different segments. And oftentimes, that is the best response for challenging scenarios.

So this, as I said, this combination, this ecosystem allows us to have solid results, allows us to add value, allows us to provide farmers with important efficient solutions so that we can continue to deliver value to society as a whole and so that we can continue to grow in the agribusiness in Brazil, which is a very resilient industry as we know.

So with that, we close the presentation, and I am now able for questions or comments you may have.

[Operator]

Now we'll start the Q&A session. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Pedro Fonseca from XP Inc. You may proceed.

[Pedro Fonseca, analyst]

Good morning, Luiz, Joao, Cristiano. Congratulations on the numbers. I have two questions. Number one, about the margins on the industry pillar, and I asked the same question in the last earnings call. The impression we get is that the crushing margin in Rio Grande do Sul continues to be above the crushing margin for Mato Grosso. You have specific issues in Mato Grosso or you had last year. So there is some more room to reach a higher margin in the industry once you normalize the situation in Mato Grosso and where once we have the super crop confirmed going forward. Does that make sense, what I'm saying? And if it does, if you could perhaps quantify how much more in terms of margin will you still have, basis point, for the industry segment? How much more could we expect to see once we normalize the situation in Mato Grosso? That's my first question.

Number two, I'd like to understand with you is that significant improvement in logistics. And if you could mention or list the main drivers for that improvement. Anything to do with a larger exposure to freight spot and also try to understand your strategies for next year in terms of freight. What do you expect to see in terms of tariffs? We know this is a very sensitive strategic area. So whatever you can add to the context would be interesting.

And also maybe a tough question. In terms of percentage of the revenue, how does -- how much does logistics will weigh going forward next year?

[Luiz Dumoncel, executive]

Pedro, thank you for your questions. As the first part of the question, I think Joao Marcelo will address. I'll try to help. And the question about logistics, I think our structure, our ecosystem as we consolidate our [indiscernible] in Mato Grosso the consolidation of the work at the shop floor level and also our team in Sao Paulo, our intelligence team.

Today, we have a very well-structured work being done here with our service providers across the different modals, highways, railways or waterways. Três Tentos along Highway 163, which represents the highest volume we have in Mato Grosso, that allows us to reach the north and the south very efficiently. We still do not export meal via the north. We have only one pilot experience to export or to send or to ship, rather, meal to the north, but still the main reason for that better performance is a very responsible work done by a knowledgeable team, a team that knows the market.

And also, as I said, the consolidation of the company along Highway 163 region, combined with better decision-making and that has helped mitigate or reduce our freight costs, our logistics cost. I believe we continue to do so. It's difficult to quantify for next year. The first crop for corn has been planted, so the outlook is good. Soybean also with good germination, but we're still far from the final results for the crop year '25.

But we have been working well with partners for more space, reserves. But in terms of price, it's difficult to quantify. Now Joao Marcelo can perhaps address the issue around margins for crushing.

[Joao Dumoncel, executive]

Yes, as for the questions about crushing margins, you said it well. Crushing margins in Rio Grande do Sul is higher than that in Mato Grosso. And your interpretation is correct. We had an inversion this year where crops in Rio Grande do Sul, we had some problems at the very end. It still was a higher crop than we had last -- previous years. So we had product to be processed, to be crushed and that led to lower pressure, especially around the premiums and the reversal of that happened in Mato Grosso. We worked and made a scenario with a more restricted offer scenario, which led to higher pressure on premiums and as a consequence, pressure on margins. That's why we adopted the strategy to have an earlier coverage for industry volumes in Mato Grosso to be able to try and improve those relative margins.

As for the future, there is a close link with that crop dynamics we have in Brazil. If we have normal crops going forward, we understand -- we expect that the crushing margins for both geographies, they both tend to get closer going forward in a more balanced manner. Of course, with Mato Grosso's margins gaining some points, getting closer to what we have today in Rio Grande do Sul -- or we had this year.

[Pedro Fonseca, analyst]

Okay. Once again, congratulations for the third quarter results.

[Operator]

Next question comes from Thiago Duarte from BTG Pactual.

[Thiago Duarte, analyst]

I'd like to touch upon 3 points. Number one, Luiz did mention early on and also as Joao did mention just now about the value added by Três Tentos' ecosystem and how the final results reflect that. My question is about the following: how do you think we should read into that great evolution in origination? For the past few months, we have raised the numbers for the year, once again, the indication of our [ day ] once again, vis-a-vis the volumes we see in inputs. And why do I ask that? We have always imagined that those things would be linked. Your origination capacity would increase depending on the relationship we have with our customers in retail, both should grow together.

So I'd like to hear from you. That seems to be implicit when you talk about good expectations for volumes and retail for inputs in the coming quarters. But I'd like to have a clear understanding in terms of orders of magnitude, what can we expect in terms of your retail inputs catching up with origination? Is that a possibility? That's the first question.

Number two, when we look at the indicators around crushed soybeans for the year, there is the important drop in volumes, which is implicit for the fourth quarter, both in the sale -- both in crushing and in the sales of meal. And that was [ assumed ] going to happen in maintenance stoppage, but not to that extent, I'd like to understand if there is anything else, a volume anticipation for the quarter or something like that, something we are not capturing as we look at the numbers.

And number three, about the margins for the grain operations, so very high margins. You had gross profits or gross income, which is probably the best one in the quarter for that front. So I'd like you to please, if you could, those higher margins, are they coming mainly from corn or from soy or they're both combined at the same level? So those are my 3 questions.

[Luiz Dumoncel, executive]

Thiago, thank you. Joao Marcelo and myself, we can address those issues -- those questions. Again, the ecosystem for us is a very good thing. It is a very good thing to get a question like that. When you mentioned the evolution we've had volume, tying that to our ecosystem. Thank you.

I think we can talk a verticalized business platform. We knew and we know and we are totally confident to share with the market, with investors that this virtualized business platform that we have that we have built throughout time. and which today, has reached an interesting moment of maturity allows us to offer products, services, technology, management, industry, so a financial arm as well. All of that combined with deep knowledge of the field and of the market. We know growers, we know how to approach them. We have 168 agronomists out in the field today as we speak, totally dedicated and connected to farmers. We have a team in Sao Paulo also working hard at the trading desk to trade grains and other products we have. And that gives us a very large capacity to be close to farmers. And those different alternatives, different entry doors, if you will, that we have for this cycle, were very helpful if growers become interested in aligning inputs with originations so that you can be more present in their crops, in their fields and transfer technology.

This will depend on us as much as it will depend on them. So our offering now with that, this experience of working with us has to make a difference for the growers. And so when we can offer more information about technology, more yield. And then if growers understand the value of that offering and if they understand that alone, if they walk along with us still having a very protective pathway going forward. So this is the way to go to create the synergy and without a doubt, grains have been driving that. But sometimes, you can be talking about a new product and input to go forward and grains will follow through or follow suit. And sometimes, Thiago, industry brings competitiveness for us in the field. And with that, we can be closer to growers.

[Eduardo Jose Motter, executive]

About the crushed soy in the quarter, we had 570,000 tonnes, it was a record quarter in terms of volume. We -- I talked to our Industrial Director and he is very excited with our industries team. But Joao Marcelo, about the industry, volumes, I think he is in a better position to address that.

[Joao Dumoncel, executive]

Thiago, as a complement in terms of the ecosystem, as we say here internally, which, to some extent, translates what we do is that inputs to buy grain and grains to sell inputs. As Luiz Osorio said, sometimes they alternate positions in terms of leading the business or driving the business, opening up the front and our origination right now is leading the way.

In terms of industry volumes, Eduardo said, Q3 was very special. We managed to present very good performance, working with 100% of the capacity of the 3 industries. And now for the next quarter, we continue to focus on working in [ full steam ]. But for the fourth quarter, we are -- we're going to have a downtime in Vera from October 15 to November 15, downtime for maintenance and also expansion, maintenance and expansion. We are now going through the first phase of our expansion for Vera for crushing.

So for the next quarter, we'll have those 30 days of downtime for Vera in terms of crushing. For biodiesel slightly less than that in terms of days. So for the end of the year, something might come up some other downtime but nothing major, but we remain with very good volumes for Q4 anyway, very much in line with what we have for Q4 of last year.

As for your third comment about the grain trading. Both corn and soy are working with good margins. Of course, corn -- because of logistics, corn has a higher percentage margin because logistics makes a difference there. So maybe corn will sort of stand out a little bit, but because of this relative relation between logistics and price, but both present good margins, just to be sure, both soy and corn.

[Thiago Duarte, analyst]

Okay. Just to confirm what you said about [ gross ] in volumes. You're talking about Q4 in line with Q4 last year, correct? In terms of volumes?

[Unknown Executive]

Yes, exactly, exactly. One will offset the other. Last year, we had a downtime period in Rio Grande do Sul closed the end of the year. And this year, we'll have a downtime in Vera and then in February, we'll have Rio Grande do Sul. One will offset the other. Volume margins pretty much the same.

[Operator]

Moving on to the next question coming from Guilherme Palhares from Santander.

[Guilherme Palhares, analyst]

Congratulations on the company's performance on Q3. I'd like to talk about Q4 and Q1 going forward in terms of crop protection products. In your explanatory notes, you saw substantial volume and crop protection products. I'd like to hear from you products that faced problems last year or so, what do you expect going forward in terms of protection products for the next 2 quarters. Crop protection products in the [ furrow ] in terms of margins.

And if you can also add some more detail for retail, for example, if we look at the margin today in Q3, including seeds, protection and fertilizers, each one of those products, how would you compare their performance today with their performance last year?

[Luiz Dumoncel, executive]

Good morning. Thank you for your question. I think Joao Marcelo can address your points.

We have some seasonality effects for those products, seed, pesticides and fertilizers. As for seeds, we had a challenging year for wheat seed for last year. We had a breakage or failure and volume of about 30%. We stopped selling that early in the year, '24 and for soybean we had excessive rainfall during harvest, and we lost some fields. And of course, that brought the level of seed for soybeans down. But in terms of margins, perhaps Joao Marcelo can offer some more detail.

[Joao Dumoncel, executive]

Good morning. As to your question and as Luiz said, out of the 3 segments, when we talk about inputs, seeds, of course, has been having the most challenging year because of volume issues, both in wheat and in soybeans, and that has affected the share of those items and the overall revenue, bringing that number down.

As for fertilizers and pesticides, we have been working with the market that are -- observing the market dynamics and we have been working along the same historical trends we've seen for the past few years. In terms of fertilizers, perhaps in Q3 slightly more pressured because of foreign exchange issues, which were more relevant in the third quarter. And in terms of [ processing ] Crop Protection products, we are trying to recover margins, some delays, especially delays in planting. Planting in Mato Grosso took slightly longer to take off, and then it offset that loss and remained within the ideal window for planting so -- but that, of course, had some impact in the overall mix of the 3 points. So fertilizers impacting more.

If we look at Q4, it's usually a quarter where we have a better margin mix where we see a drop in fertilizers, an increase in crop protection and we also see seed corn selling slightly better, looking for the second crop.

So as we see it, the year remains a challenging one for crop production. There was an important change in the behavior of growers. They are buying those products in a more segmented manner. And that, of course, brings about different challenges, challenges of service, logistics, we need to have the right product at the right moment to offer. But as we are close, have always been close to farmers, we are able to adjust and meet their needs in a very satisfactory, if you will, manner. So we are somewhat optimistic in terms of margin for Q4 and for Q1 2025. That's where we have, as I said, the best revenue mix.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Gabriel Barra from Citibank.

[Gabriel Coelho Barra, analyst]

Congratulations on the results. Very interesting quarter, I think the industry overall, especially the input in the 3-year market. We had questions about growth early on at the time of the IPO. We saw other players growing more aggressively, and you thought about -- you've always insisted on a more organic growth, more consistent, slower, but surely going forward. And we see, now, a change in this sector overall. It has become more complicated, more difficult. Some players facing financial problems, and that's where my question is. Looking at the guidance you provided where you maintain the same number of stores, about 100, how can we see that growth in-store numbers?

Also in geographical terms, you went to Mato Grosso, of course. And that seems to have been the right move, going to Mato Grosso. Then we expect now, out of those 30 additional stores, are you thinking about or considering other regions? Where are you planning to grow towards.

And then a question about the numbers we saw a relevant impact on working capital vis-a-vis grain volume. So the largest impact happened on the grains line. So how can we think about inventory going forward? Should we have investment in working capital? Or should it have been returned to the company in the coming quarters? And you expect to see that going forward, to see a more normal impact?

[Luiz Dumoncel, executive]

Good morning, Barra, thank you. I thought we could break your questions down in 3 parts. I can start by talking about our growth strategy, and then Joao Marcelo can address the different geographies vis-a-vis the number of stores we intend to open going forward. Joao Marcelo can give you more color on that. And then Cristiano can, perhaps, talk about working capital.

So organic growth sits at the heart of what we do. Our people, M&A, as we like to call it. And since January, Joao Marcelo and myself, along with Misiara, who is our HR Officer. We decided that the company will continue to follow that model. Our growth happens through people, that's our motorway. So the company's organizational climate, the teams that we put together to work across different segments, inputs, grains, industry and the financial arm, those are teams who have put together, and they are quite well connected across the board and well qualified. And as we intend to continue to grow to continue to provide significant deliveries to our grower partners who've been with us for almost 30 years now. We turn 30 next January. And along those 30 years, we have never stopped growing. We have grown every year. We have delivered positive results every year, and that only happens because of our people.

Now the growth base that we have been implementing and will continue to do so that depends on the agribusiness, which faces, sometimes, cycles which are more difficult, other less difficult, other really difficult, but our ecosystem, our platform is well managed to face those variations and we work with very clear objectives of where we want to be, where we want to get. So we are confident that we'll continue to add value to our clients, customers, the market and that, of course, will strengthen us.

I think Joao Marcelo will be talking about the different geographies. Please, Joao Marcelo, over to you.

[Joao Dumoncel, executive]

Good morning. As for growth, as we've been saying in the past calls, organic growth is important for us. Recently, now we have the Araguaia Valley front, which falls within the context of our corn ethanol industry, we are now concentrating our main effort in terms of new stores to consolidate the ecosystem around that area, inputs along the plant and also the grain front, using the units where we have grains and inputs combined. We have opened some stores along BR-163, the highway, to complement that geography, still occupying some spaces there. We understand that there is still room to be occupied in that region along the highway. Also, in Rio Grande do Sul, there is room to be taken.

And as I said, just now, we have now the Araguaia Valley front as the main driver for growth this year and likely for next year as well. In the mid to the long term, and getting -- going towards 100 stores, our guidance for 2030, it will most likely involve new regions. We are paying close attention to that, new geographies, looking for opportunities, synergies, both in logistics and market conditions. But this will, of course, be the way going forward. And as I said, growth will not stop, of course, responsible, solid growth, firm steps going forward, but always looking ahead, trying to always deliver or add value to our partner growers. This will make our company last.

[Cristiano Costa, executive]

Good morning, Gabriel. Thank you for your questions and kind words. We have reached the point in time where we are able to show the value of our ecosystem of having all those segments within the same company.

In terms of working capital needs, that variation came about because of an increase in our grain inventory. If you compare September 30, 2023, to September 30, 2024, you will see that 100% of that variation comes from an increase in the line of grains. So grains have a destination, the speed of that will depend on how we are able to expand and how we manage to trade that grain, as we said, was very well conducted by our origination team and our international trading team. So that grain will have a destination and adding value across all phases.

Our understanding, Gabriel, is that the soybean inventory equals cash from the accounting point of view as inventory. But in terms of liquidity, it spells cash. So we have that solidity level, and we understand that's a way to carry over our stock to be sure or reassured for our crushing needs for the coming months. And that's the result, of course, of a good plan drawn up by our origination team. They understood that at some price points, it would be worth our while to have that investment in grains. So that's the strategy, which was well planned out before, both in origination and in the overall strategy as well. And we said follow up on the plan.

Those 100 stores had already been defined back in the day. We have CapEx, which has been allocated for that growth. So we understand, as I see it, the adjustments in the market are natural, opportunities might arise, and they will knock on our door. It's already happening. But the company has a plan in place, which is organic growth at our pace, and that's very important for us to be sustainable in terms of results in the long term. I wouldn't emphasize that need for working capital so much. I think we are on the right track, in the right pace, challenging, but the right pace, a pace for which we planned.

[Operator]

Next question comes from Matheus Enfeldt from UBS.

[Matheus Enfeldt, analyst]

Congratulations on your growth. My question is about the guidance for expansion. What changed from the announcement earlier in the year to now that made you more confident in expanding biodiesel and corn ethanol? Do you see better pricing, more efficiency? What assumptions have changed that made you more confident to increase capacity?

And I'd like to hear from you that increased capacity, is it linked to an increase in CapEx? And also the ethanol capacity increasing significantly with an increase in CapEx, which was relatively low when you look at the capacity increase.

And then a second question about the new moratorium in Mato Grosso. If you look at some numbers that have been published, the impact on EBITDA could be to the tune of 10% to 15%. How do you see that risk going forward in Mato Grosso? And to what extent does the new ethanol plant depend on those benefits?

[Luiz Dumoncel, executive]

Matheus, good morning. Thank you. We will address your questions, the 3 of us here. So about the guidance update you mentioned, why the increase. Without a doubt, we have observed a higher predictability, more legal safety in terms of biofuels in Brazil. We are confident that biofuels is already part of the energy transition and will continue to be so. It will actually increasingly be more important. And when the Future Fuel (sic) [ Fuels of the Future ] law was passed, we identified a need, maybe a natural sequence for Tres Tentos to expand its operations across the biodiesel space. We have already started doing that. So it would only be natural for us to increase. So we felt confident reassured that, that was a safe way to go.

As we've said before, energy transition is not a state program or a government program, it is a demand coming from society. Society demands that are and in certain moments, that demand is more intense, more forceful; in other moments, demand is lesser. It's not only a question around ESG. It goes way beyond that. And Três Tentos is ready to face that, to grow, as we've described in our guidance. And that, of course, reflects in the other fronts where we work, input, grains, finance and so on and so forth. So that's the answer to why the increase.

As for the soybean moratorium, it is a market situation which happened a few years back in which companies, to be able to export, they needed to have a guarantee that growers was not deforesting illegally or with -- outside the window. Growers abide by a Brazilian law, which is the most restricted, most rigorous law in the world, almost all Brazilian professional farmers all abide by those laws, that legislation. I have no more information about that. Is this going to go forward or not? I don't know. And the decision will be made by governments, local and state and federal and Tres Tentos will abide by the law as we have always done. An impact of 10% to 15% is an estimate and that the market has provided, of course, if that reflects anywhere, it will reflect across the board, it won't be something only to affect us or company X or Y or grower X or Y, no. It will affect everybody indistinctively.

We are paying close attention to those dynamics, but Joao Marcelo along with Cristiano will be able to give you some more context, more color and to say whether or not that has been included in our planning for ethanol. And Joao Marcelo can also talk about for biodiesel and for ethanol.

[Cristiano Costa, executive]

Matheus, as for the moratorium, a pragmatic solution will be found to meet demands from different stakeholders. We believe that will happen. Of course, we need to pay attention to what the market does and also in line with the legislation. It is a very restricted legislation, as Luiz said, and operating by that law is in itself a guarantee that sustainability will be served.

As for the relative CapEx, without a doubt, the overall assumptions for the fuel market are key for us. And also operating assumptions and project assumptions also weigh in, in our decision-making process.

As the Porto Alegre do Norte project for ethanol materialized, we understood that expansion of capacity for the project of 30%, as I said, an increase in CapEx of 11%, just to be sure, it made all the sense in the world. The market is welcoming. That is a good outlook for that increase for ethanol and as I said, our optimization of the project was an important assumption for CapEx expenditure.

As for the bio, that increasing 20% of the original plan, it's reflected -- well, first -- it's not an increase that will have an important or a major impact when compared to the total amount of investments. And it's been diluted across the overall amount that we considered for industrial expansions.

So it's within the whole expansion packet for the existing industries. It's also a part of our material fact announced yesterday. So within that overall amount, we are making those expansions for crushing and also an increase for biodiesel for the 2 phases, right, in the first guidance for the [ 2,500 ] cubic meters and now 43,000 cubic meters per day.

So just to reinforce what I said, we have a market assumptions, overall market assumptions and also important aspects in terms of project optimization.

[Joao Dumoncel, executive]

Matheus, as a complement for the soybean moratorium and impact on ethanol, every project we develop within Três Tentos is done without taking into account tax benefits. Its feasibility was based on that, just as our decision to expand was also based on that. Our projects, our decisions, the EBITDA margin calculations, none of that takes into account tax benefits. We understand -- if that comes, it will come as an additional benefit, just as getting a low rate financing line or below market rates.

Specifically about the new regulation, we are still waiting for the new regulation to be published if there's a new tax to be out. We know that growers already abide by very rigorous legislation, as it was said. And we understand -- we'll come to a consensus, a good understanding. And if some effect whatsoever comes our way, our call is to go after, work hard and address that, just as we did when subsidies were cut in the past and today, we enjoy very healthy margins. That's how we see it. We have a tax team which is on top of that, analyzing consequences, impacts along with growers and also working alongside industry associations but we need to understand or wait for the final tax, the final law to be presented. Then and only then, we'll have a clear understanding of the potential consequences, okay?

[Unknown Executive]

Just as a final complement, the major impact will be on growers, right? So perhaps they are dropping prices on their end of the products. That's where we see an impact happening.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Isabella Simonato from Bank of America.

[Isabella Simonato, analyst]

I'd like to go back to the retail issue and focus on the competitive space. We've had some recent changes, companies resorting to Chapter 11, Nutrien also changing their focus in Brazil around retail. I'd like to understand from you about that competition.

A second question that I have about the biodiesel prices. For the past few quarters, we've seen biodiesel increasingly above, outperforming soybean oil. Also I understand the demand that we have talked about, so the pricing for biodiesel. Once again, those are the questions.

[Luiz Dumoncel, executive]

Good morning, Isabella. Thank you for your questions. As for import retail, Joao Marcelo will address that. But the environment remains competitive, no doubt. Some companies leave, some companies come back or strengthen. Três Tentos, as I said, is well positioned. We analyze all those dynamics very thoroughly, and we do have a long-term plan. We are not here -- we're not sharing those plans right now, but as we make the decisions, which are relevant, we'll communicate to the market. But the greatest competitive edge that we have is to have a well-prepared qualified team able to offer solutions that make sense to growers.

So the input solutions or origination solutions or grain solutions, our competitiveness or the competitiveness that we offer growers, all that combine into a good offering to customers.

And we see large companies, large cooperative, large grain elevators, large industries. And we look at them and we observe the scenario overall, and then we decide where to operate. But the market remains competitive irrespective of new players coming in or old players going out. Maybe Joao Marcelo can give you a better understanding of that and also about biodiesel.

[Joao Dumoncel, executive]

Good morning, Isabella. As a complement to what Luiz had already said, the backdrop of what's happening in the sector is a drop in profitability for growers. We had a moment where growers lost profitability with the drops in prices, and some places suffered more because of climate issues. Also, when you combine logistics issues and supply chain issues, especially as a legacy of the pandemic period.

When you combine all that, you have a scenario where you have a more challenging situation for everyone in the sector. And there are different business model possibilities.

We believe in our business model, that we have developed within Três Tentos, which is based, as we always say, on our ecosystem, complementary segments working under the same umbrella and especially based on a deep proximity with growers. That is in our DNA. We are always close to farmers, to growers. And then and only then we can do -- we can have the correct reading of the market and then offer effective nimble solutions to our customers. That's what sets us apart and that's we -- that's what we understand as a company that we should be doing to get good results or above-average results.

As for biodiesel, what we are seeing is a consolidation of those legal framework models are happening for biofuels overall. Incentives, regulations, it's all consolidating towards that. And that sits at the core of our expansion strategy, both for ethanol and for biodiesel as a whole. And of course, this is driven by the results we have been achieving, consistent results arising from a strong demand and also a demand, which is growing for the foreseeable future. That's how we see it, and that's how we seek to deliver value to our customers.

[Operator]

Next question from Henrique Brustolin from Bradesco.

[Henrique Brustolin, analyst]

My first question is, I'd like to hear about your guidance for retail for this year. Is it one less store than predicted, but in a larger area, correct? So how do you see that dynamic going forward? Existing stores reaching increasingly larger operation coverage areas? And how does that link with a more robust order portfolio? So what you expect to see in terms of market share gain in those regions?

And then 2 quick follow-ups. Joao Marcelo, just to be sure, when you talk about retail margin, if I understood you correctly, retail margin seems to be related to mix, not to units, correct?

And number two, for Joao Marcelo about the crushing margins. When you compare both geographies, are we talking about EBIT margin, including logistics or not? And how is it mismatched with what we have today? The impression I have is that the contribution margin from Mato Grosso will improve significantly. So to understand better both geographies and the difference in margins.

[Luiz Dumoncel, executive]

Thank you, Henrique. I think Joao Marcelo can address those questions. Retail '24 and the other questions, that store that you mentioned, which has expanded its coverage.

Joao, over to you.

[Joao Dumoncel, executive]

Good morning. Thank you for the questions. Actually, in terms of the number of stores, the coverage. Sometimes, it's not a very -- it's not a precise science, not totally controllable. But we are always paying attention to the market dynamics, paying attention to potential opportunities that may come up. So from one year to another, we can see slight variations because we are trying to find a better positioning and have a more fitting sequence in terms of expansion. So that store that you mentioned, which was not open, 1 store less than what has been planned, to a large extent, that will be offset in the coming quarters by existing stores.

As for the coverage area, the same. We are constantly looking at, prioritizing markets with higher potential. We talked about the Araguaia Valley just now, which became a trend for us more recently in terms of investments and will continue to be so. And we have an area per store, which is quite significant. So in terms of that geography, we have occupied very efficiently covering important regions, large regions. Of course, we will be going to all those geographies and covering them with more stores, but we're not such gain in terms of coverage. But that's the dynamics of the business. And we continue to do so until we have finally optimized all the opportunities.

As for your second question about retail margins. We have a mix linked seasonality. We have quarters when the product mix changes significantly. And then because of that mix, you have a variation in terms of margins. And of course, the behavior, the purchasing behavior of growers, behaviors will change from time to time in terms of different segmented purchases vis-a-vis bulk purchases. And of course, that will impact our margins as well. And we understand that, and as I said, margins for Q4 and Q1 of next year traditionally come out better than the mix average, as I said before.

And as for your third question about margins, the crushing margins. As I said before, crushing margins for Rio Grande do Sul is higher than Mato Grosso. We've talked about that, the premium differences that we've seen this year as a main driver for that difference. You talked about logistics. The difference in Q4 tends to decrease and it's linked to what I mentioned before, the investments that the company made in improving the factory's coverage. We have a higher coverage now. So within this scenario, this was helpful and it's now helping improve margins for industry and preserve margins for crushing in Mato Grosso.

[Operator]

This concludes the Q&A session. I'd like to turn the floor back over to Mr. Luiz Dumoncel for his final remarks. Over to you, sir.

[Luiz Dumoncel, executive]

Thank you. Thank you once again for being with us yet another time. I just have a couple of highlights I'd like to make. We are quite confident in this sector, and also I'd like to acknowledge the work done by our team, made up of professionals who know the field, know the market. And with that, we are able to deliver those great results and the company has a lot of ground to cover going forward to grow and evolve.

Also, I'd like to talk to our investors, our shareholders and say that we take care of the whole chain. Ever since the first unit in Santa Barbara, the head of [indiscernible] the most recently opened and the new factory, the expansion of the other plants, that's a very responsible effort we have been putting in, which has been giving us good results as we become better structured to meet that growth and that our focus is on growers. So this closeness this proximity with them. We have conducted surveys, and we see that emerge as our main strength. Relationship is a strong point, to say that all companies across all industries say that, but to do it in practice is difficult. And we have been doing that in a very dedicated manner.

And as I'd like to reinforce, knowing what to do now in the field, our commitment with the operation remains, our commitment with a solid business and a long-term view. We're not here for a couple of quarters, a couple of crops. We are here to stay. We have a track record that allows us to really work with an eye in the long term. That's how we see the business. We are confident that food safety and renewable energy are topics for which we can contribute. We are contributing in terms of feed, food, grains and biofuels. So Três Tentos has a responsible role to play in this sector, in a country that has huge potential as we know -- and we know where Brazil ranks in terms of world agriculture.

I am very, very -- paying very, very close attention with Joao Marcelo, Cristiano, our Board, our managers, we're all paying close attention so that we can get capital allocation right. Três Tentos' capital is very well managed in terms of allocation. And of course, the return on the invested capital is also important. We know everything we're going to do, and we are ready to be present in this volatile market, which is, at the same time, 100% controlling risks with risk policies in place, credit policies in place. Três Tentos has been delivering consistent results, and will continue to do so. When the market is better, we will be even better. In the tough moments, we are ready to resist and overcome all those difficulties.

So once again, thank you for being here with us today, for your attention and for your attention.

[Operator]

Três Tentos' video conference for Q3 results is now over. The IR department remains available for questions or comments you may still have. Thank you for participating, and have a nice day, everyone.

[Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]