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Matas A/S
CSE:MATAS

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Matas A/S
CSE:MATAS
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Price: 120.2 DKK 1.69% Market Closed
Updated: Jun 1, 2024

Earnings Call Transcript

Earnings Call Transcript
2021-Q3

from 0
Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Matas Q3 conference call. [Operator Instructions] Today, I'm pleased to present Gregers Weddell, CEO. Please begin meeting.

G
Gregers Christian Wedell-Wedellsborg

Thank you, operator, and welcome, everyone, to the call covering our Q3 2020-2021 announcement. With me on the call, Anders Skole-Sørensen, our CFO; and Henrik Lund, our Head of HR. And operator, please turn to Slide #3. So today, we will cover just the status on the business first. And then we will switch over to Anders, who will go through the financial results. And I will conclude by sharing my remarks on the guidance for the full year. Please turn to Slide #4. So the Q3 of 2021 was obviously a very peculiar and very shifty quarter. We saw exceptionally strong results. And today, we're announcing a guidance upgrade. The results for the sales were up, as you know, from the trading update, 12%, and underlying growth was at 13%. Our EBITDA grew by 11%, and that is driven by a leap in online profitability, and I will return to that point. We also generated cash of DKK 515 million supported to a large extent, by our work on inventory management. I think the key takeaway from this quarter, once again, actually, is that our business model in Matas continues to be very resilient, very flexible and able to adapt with very short notice. And I think this year has been a proof point for the omnichannel business model. Our store sales declined 0.4% over the quarter. And this was actually composed of an increase in the beginning of the quarter, followed by the stimulus of -- holiday stimulus package, and as the quarter went on, tighter and tighter restrictions. Online sales once again really boomed at 78%, led by matas.dk growing at 91%. This was obviously also a quarter with the impact from consumer needs for health and well-being products, and that category increased most by 23%. It was not only a quarter of operating and trying to get through the pandemic, it was also a quarter where we made significant progress on some of our strategic priorities. And we trialed a new Club Matas Plus concept, that I will return to, which we had soft launched in Q4. We also saw in this quarter, to the highest extent we've ever seen, the channels melting together, and using our many beauty advisers, health advisers in the stores doing online video consultations with customers. And then we have seen our operations, in particular, in our Humlebæk web shop has been optimized in the quarter. And as I mentioned, a new guidance for the full financial year where we raised both the growth and the EBITDA margin expectations. Please turn to the next slide. So starting with the stores. We are in a situation where all the stores remain profitable. We have -- still have 263 stores that we own and operate. As I mentioned, we saw an increase in the like-for-like for the physical stores at the beginning of the quarter. We've been able to keep all stores open throughout the entire quarter. Matas is exempted from shutting down from lockdown given to the essential nature of our business. And what we've seen is a quite market shift in what stores perform and which don't. Obviously, shopping centers and even city locations are negatively impacted by lockdown, whereas local stores and stores that are in areas where people might have secondary homes, they actually performed really well. So for connected stores -- or the priority for this period of time has really been to make a leap forward in connecting our stores and everything to do with digital in the stores. And I think that's part of the reason why we're able to compensate for a decline in customer traffic by increasing basket size in the store. There's also something we see -- cross-retail, obviously, the people, they go to the stores less frequently, but when they go, they buy big baskets. We also really saw payback on a long-standing initiative that we've had to put the stores on Facebook and other social media. So stores are able to deliver consultations and live events to local communities and to individual customers when there are lockdown periods and some customers might be afraid to go to the store. I think one of the things that this quarter showed us that we didn't see to the same extent in the spring lockdown era was that the omnichannel synergies that, obviously, is a great focus area for us, they are intact. So we're still in a situation where more than half of -- around half of the customers shopping on matas.dk, they choose to pick up their purchases at a Matas store. Please turn to the next slide. This again has been an online quarter and then an online breakthrough quarter. As you can tell, looking at the last 12 months, we're now approaching DKK 1 billion in online revenues. And the quarter marked the highest share of turnover for online that we've seen so far, approaching 26%, a very, very rapid increase from when we launched the strategy more than 3 years ago, that now 26% of our business is composed by online. So again, this quarter cemented our market leadership position and again cemented our position that customers do have a preference for Matas in the Danish market. Obviously, one of the big discussions has been around profitability. So if you would please turn to Slide #7. The quarter overall saw a stable EBITDA margin and an increase in absolute earnings. And this was driven in large part by a leap in online profitability. We saw, as I mentioned, an accelerated growth rate. We acquired 84,000 new customers, just at matas.dk, we saw an increase in the number of members, Club Matas members, making the purchase online. I think the very significant takeaway from this quarter, once again, is a continuation of what we talked about before, that as the online business grows, we do see profitability scaling due to economies of scale. So we've actually seen gross margin improvement due to more full price sales at matas.dk. And when people use matas.dk as their store, their ordinary store, they also buy more product at full price. We also once again saw increased efficiency at our webshop in Humlebæk despite quite strict COVID measures imposed on the operations of the Humlebæk facility. And then obviously, we're seeing increased leverage on the fixed cost base of our online business. We've also seen in the quarter that our competitive edge and some of the things that will help us next year have been sharpened. We have more than 800,000 downloads of the app. And one of the introductions that we made with the new app is that it's much easier to shop using our Club Matas app. And it is now a quite significant -- very significant actually sales channel. And that's very good thing because, obviously, when people shop at an app, they are not as prone to do price comparisons or shop around as they are when they shop online. So that's a very important channel and a very important milestone for us. And we also saw a breakthrough in more dialogue-based sales online. So it's not just self-service and going to the product catalog and buying. It's also a lot of advice given to customers that are shopping online. And I think that's the real long-term differentiation for us, that the position that we have offline as a trusted adviser, that we are able to replicate that online as well. And interestingly, we've been able to set up a system where we can use idle times, lack of capacity in store when we have these great channel shifts, then we can use our colleagues in the stores to provide online customer service and online dialogue. I think also one thing is that people shop online out of necessity. But I think one of the most satisfying results is really that we have seen a very, very good fulfillment grades and we have seen all time high customer satisfaction for our online shop. And I think that will help us going forward as well. Please turn to Slide #8. In the quarter, we trialed Club Matas Plus, which is a subscription service. We soft launched it this quarter, Q4. And the idea of Club Matas Plus is to make a very, very simple subscription model that provides our most valuable and most loyal members with some advantages. So for DKK 29 per month, you can triple the points you earn as a Club Matas member, you can get free delivery online. And every month, we have -- so the calendar of events and gifts and offers that you can only get as a Club Matas Plus member. This is something that we will be reporting on going forward. The purpose of this particular initiative is to drive share of wallet and drive loyalty. And we are seeing that from the early trials that we're seeing, both very good traction on sort of the early customer adoption of this and of the customer behavior that follows from being a Club Matas Plus member. And with that, I would like to hand over to Anders to go through our financials for the quarter. So please turn to Slide #9.

A
Anders Tormod Skole-Sørensen

Thank you, Gregers, and good morning. The advantage of having good numbers, you can keep it short because this is good number. So I will try and keep it short. We -- Gregers has already talked about revenues. I'm not going to mention that anymore, and it's very strong numbers, obviously, I have the benefit, at least benefit of having been here a long time, and frankly, I've never seen numbers like this, quite impressive. And as Gregers also mentioned, we were actually able to have this growth, in which, of course, as already mentioned, was primarily growth in the online business without sacrificing our gross margin. As you can see, the gross margin was roughly unchanged compared to last year. So that the development that we've seen over a number of quarters where the online business is getting closer in profitability to the physical stores is something that we see continuing in this quarter as well. Now to the cost base, roughly developed in line with turnover, and I'll come back to that a little later. As a consequence, as Gregers mentioned, we have an EBITDA which has grown by almost DKK 30 million and an EBITDA margin which is roughly unchanged compared to last year. It is, obviously, I can do the numbers as well, marginally lower, but very much still -- very much low. On the other hand, adjusted net profit has gone up significantly following the trend in the turnover. And free cash flow is one of the very positive stories, with a [ jump ] in the free cash flow from last year to this year, obviously, based on a combination of better underlying profitability, that is more money coming in, and of course, a positive development in working capital, which I will also revert to. We've seen the same development as we have seen number -- a numbers of years when it comes to the transaction and basket size. And obviously, I think we've talked about this before. As more and more opportunity over is online rather than offline, basket prices are naturally bigger in the online business. People tend to double their the purchases a little more. Plus, of course, there are also some proof upwards in basket size due to [the limits] free shipping. And -- but in the third quarter, we should also notice that during the COVID pandemic, there's also generally a tendency among our consumers not to trade quite as often as they have done historically, but to trade in larger amounts once they do so. So that is basically the development we've been seeing. So with that, please turn to Slide #10. On this slide, we are looking at the more long-term trends. And obviously, the picture we are seeing here is one of a very, very strong growth also, both on the quarter-to-quarter basis, but also historically. If you look at the last 12 months growth, this is really taken off during this extraordinary year. At the same time, we are also looking into, on the gross margin side, what we believe is a fairly stable development after having a number of years where this was being under some pressure. We are seeing that pressure being alleviated somewhat. EBITDA margin, as I just mentioned, we are also seeing that stabilizing. So pretty much all around a positive picture and -- both with regards to the profitability, and obviously, with regards to the revenue. So with that, please turn to Slide #11. As promised, in Slide 11, we are looking a little more at the cost in some detail. And overall, the conclusion is quite clear. Cost ratio is basically unchanged. But if we look then as we look deeper into the cost drivers, obviously, the very strong growth that we've had in our online business, both in Matas and in Firtal, has added cost, because, as you know, the big -- one of the big differences between the online business and the physical store business is that, in the online business, a bigger part of the cost saves is variable. So it goes up the internal goes up, but it also drops down, internal drops down. So that's actually not altogether a bad thing. Then we still have some costs, around DKK 7 million costs, which are particularly added costs in relation to the COVID-19 pandemic. And I think Gregers briefly mentioned that in our Humlebæk facility, our workshop facility, for instance, we've had some extra costs. There's also been some extra costs in the store level concerning COVID-19 precautions. Now if you look at the underlying cost base, there's actually still a drop in the underlying cost base of around DKK 12 million compared to the same quarter last year. And that definitely comes from continued efficient -- working with our efficiency within the stores and also within the headquarters. If you look at development costs, there's a rise there, as you can see. And that is explained wholly by a fairly strong activity increase in online, as we talked about, and then some costs which are specifically related to the COVID-19 pandemic, where we've set aside some costs on the wage side for that. With that, please turn to Slide #12. On this slide, we're just looking very briefly at cash flow, working capital and trade levels. And as you can see, compared to the same quarter of last year, a very positive development in working capital. And if you look at what actually happened in this quarter, if you look at working capital compared to last quarter, you can see that the -- there was a marked drop in inventories, which I'll come back to. But at the same time, we were also actually able to increase our trade payables by a little. And then, obviously, compared to last year, there's also a slightly positive impact from some of the -- we haven't been taking advantage of health packages, as you well know. But there are some payments of the taxes which have been postponed by the government as a part of the overall measures on COVID-19. And obviously, those postponement of payments have also benefited Matas. And they -- we announced to a slight part, or a smaller part of the positive gains to working capital. As to CapEx, you can see, compared to the same quarter of last year, there was a drop in CapEx. And that is, of course, because we have not generally been spending as much money on investment in the physical retail network during this whole special situation that we're in. Otherwise, not much to say. So a very, very positive development in the free cash flow, as you can see. With that, if you could turn to the next slide. On the next slide, we will just focus a bit on what has historically been somewhat, I wouldn't say it's been a pain point, but at least has been something we needed to talk about, which is the development in our inventories. And I'm very pleased to say that we've had a very positive -- continued positive development in the inventories. And I'd like to just focus you on 2 things. First of all, the total drop of the DKK 82 million that I mentioned, which actually consists of a positive or an increase -- not a positive, an increase in inventories. That's based on the fact that we now have a lot of these COVID-19 related products on -- in stock, and we have to have the order, obviously, before COVID-19. And then, of course, there are some growth areas that is also tying up But then the rest of the business, we've actually been able to reduce stocks quite significantly by more than 131, so that's why we end up with a negative net of DKK 82 million. But what is even more important is that if you look at these numbers and also take into account the fact that the business has been growing quite rapidly over the last year, then if you look at the number that's been put in a small circle, you can see that, relative to revenue, there's actually a very marked improvement between what we see at the end of the third quarter this year compared to what we saw last year or the year before that. So we are really pleased to see the development in our inventories. And we really think we are on the right track with regards to the managing our inventory levels. And this is -- I think it's a significant development that we are pleased to see. With that, short and sweet, I will turn you back to Gregers.

G
Gregers Christian Wedell-Wedellsborg

Thank you, Anders. And please turn to Slide #14. I think, obviously, the question for the results this year will be, how much of it is just tailwind from COVID and how much of what we have seen this year will carry into the coming years? And while we can't give you a number to that, we can certainly say that there are -- that COVID for sure has accelerated the transformation journey that Matas was already on. And it has not only accelerated, for example, our online sales, but it has also accelerated the journey towards profitability online. So this year will mark a very clear strategic progress for the company. We've seen a very marked increase in Matas' overall brand strength and liking and respect from -- and relevance from consumers. As I mentioned, we have been able to develop concepts as we have gone along with Club Matas Plus concept. We're also working on and have launched different kinds of subscriptions concepts this year. And for online, obviously, this has been a major dip both in the share of revenue, but also in our online profitability. As for the stores, I think actually, COVID, in many ways, there's also been a vote of confidence in stores and the role that stores play in the future. So we have seen consumers be much more aware of the value of having local stores and supporting local stores, being able to solicit advice from our advisers in the stores. So we have been able to keep all the stores profitable throughout this, and as I mentioned, increase sort of the melting pot effect of having a store staff and online work together in so many ways. A couple of years back, we launched an initiative to drive what we call green growth. That is growth in area in sustainable products areas and also the health category of our business. And that was very, very -- it turned out to be very, very timely. It was also always growing fast even before COVID. But obviously, both in Matas and the Firtal Group, which is specialized in health, this has been a year where they really saw payback on that strategic fit. Finally, we are in a process every year of changing the business and how the business operates. And we're pleased to see that we can keep the cost ratios intact despite the channel shift. And I would also highlight that if you look closely at our accounts, you can see that the work we're doing in the stores and in what I call the legacy part of the business of bringing down costs to be able to finance all these wonderful new initiatives, we have actually been able to keep up that work and drive down underlying cost base related to the stores, and we allocate that to online. So for sure, this has been a year of tailwind, but it has also been a year that has -- that accelerated our strategic progress. And obviously, we have -- we're in a position now where the numbers that we are expecting for this year will be above the level of what we have been expecting for '22, '23. So we have set in motion a strategy update process to look at what is the future for Matas is going to be. Because, obviously, a lot of things are going to return to the way they were. But we also believe that there will be lasting changes in consumer behavior. But right now, that is all about what kind of crystal ball you're looking into, but we are now starting to look at the long-term again. And please turn to Slide #15 for a comment on the guidance upgrade. For the guidance, we raised the guidance. We now expect a total revenue growth of above 12%, up from about 10%, and underlying revenue growth above 12%, up from above 10%, and an EBITDA margin before special items above 18.5%, up from above 18%, and the CapEx level is left unchanged. As for our financial ambitions for the long term, as I mentioned, they are, at this point, we have achieved them, and therefore, we'll be initiating a strategy review. So with that, I would like to close our comments. And operator, we are now ready to take questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Claus Almer from Nordea.

C
Claus Almer Nielsen
Senior Analyst of Capital Goods and IT

Yes. First of all, congratulations with another very strong quarter. The first question goes to the net working capital and the cash flow. I'm not 100% sure I understood your -- understand your comments. But what should we think going forward? Is this the new level for your inventories? Or will it bounce back a bit? That will be the first question.

A
Anders Tormod Skole-Sørensen

Sorry, let me just comment on that by saying that we are obviously working very hard to keep -- to continue to optimize on the level of inventories seen in relation to the underlying business. But I'm not going to make any sort of predictions or promises as to exactly how that's going to deliver that. As you well know, there are things that can surprise one way or the other. But I think it's fair to say that the sort of -- that we told you the trend, we did that a while ago. And now we are seeing a more positive trends, i.e., not tying up as much capital and inventory relative to sales as we have been doing or doing it for a number of years. So that is definitely a work that continues. So it's not -- and we don't look at it this way before. Now we've done something, and now we can sort of lean back in our chairs in that the development resume. We will be very vigilant about the development in the inventories and inventories relative to sales going forward.

C
Claus Almer Nielsen
Senior Analyst of Capital Goods and IT

We have seen in the past, at year-end, there can be very strange, maybe not strange, but there could be a lot of movements due to various reasons. So I just want to be sure that when we're looking at your full year numbers, that the level will not be totally different from what we saw end of calendar year.

A
Anders Tormod Skole-Sørensen

And again, of course, given that this is the future we're talking about. I'm not making any sort of predictions. I'm just sort of to revert what I said before, that we will continue to work with the inventory levels We won't take our foot off the brake, so to speak.

C
Claus Almer Nielsen
Senior Analyst of Capital Goods and IT

Okay. So just to be 100% sure. There has been no really unusual items, excluding the payment delay from -- by the government?

A
Anders Tormod Skole-Sørensen

No. No. That's true. That's very fair. Except for those, particularly, I think with payroll taxes at this point still be -- have a bit of a delay on that. There's nothing else in the numbers that is unusual. Correct.

C
Claus Almer Nielsen
Senior Analyst of Capital Goods and IT

Right. And then the second question goes to this comment about the profitability within the online channel. If I'm trying to calculate the underlying profitability, both Q-over-Q and year-over-year, I'm struggling to see that online should really have moved in the same level as the physical store network. Is that correct? Or what am I missing when I'm trying to calculate the underlying trends?

G
Gregers Christian Wedell-Wedellsborg

Well, we report on the profitability and break that down once a year with the full financial year results. And then we remark every quarter whether it's going in the right direction. And obviously, with a high share of revenue coming from online for this quarter and our ability to maintain, almost maintain the margin, you can imply that we have seen that leap in online profitability and on the margin level, yes. And it's approaching the level of the stores, not quite there, but it's rapidly approaching the level of the stores.

C
Claus Almer Nielsen
Senior Analyst of Capital Goods and IT

Okay. And then just a final question, is about the transaction and basket size. It seems like you have changed the historical numbers. Why is that?

G
Gregers Christian Wedell-Wedellsborg

Have we changed the historic numbers?

C
Claus Almer Nielsen
Senior Analyst of Capital Goods and IT

Yes.

A
Anders Tormod Skole-Sørensen

I think we did that last quarter because we've included in the historical numbers, that included retail. But let's just rerun on that. I think that's the case to be honest. I think that it's been there long enough. But let's just come back on that.

Operator

Our next question comes from Magnus Jensen from SEB.

M
Magnus Thorstholm Jensen
Senior Equities Analyst

Magnus here. I actually just have 2 questions. The first one goes to staff costs, where you, Anders, said that it was a natural development, that staff costs will increase when online goes up and also due to COVID. But looking at the other quarter for us throughout the year, we've actually seen -- for Q1, it was the same level. But for Q2, we actually saw a reduction in staff costs. So I'm quite surprised to see such an increase given what you've seen for the first half of your financial year. So maybe a couple of comments on that if you could. And the second question goes to -- you say that online margins is approaching the physical stores margin on an EBITDA level, I guess, because that's what you mainly comment on. But would the same be valid for your EBIT margin? So what the real question is, is D&A, depreciation and amortization at the same level for the 2 platforms, so to speak?

G
Gregers Christian Wedell-Wedellsborg

Okay. I'll remark on the first question and I'll leave to Anders to remark on the second one. Staff cost for the quarter was on a trend level higher than the other quarters. And some of that should definitely be considered of a sort of one-off-ish nature. We haven't reported it as exceptionals because this is an exceptional year with so many moving parts. But we did. Just to give you one example, in Black Week, there was a lot of attention on where the stores were able to comply with regulations. And we saw very, very intense diligence on behalf of the authorities as to whether we could keep up the distance in measures and the sanitary measures. So we actually decided to put caps and hire guards to stand outside of our stores to make sure that we kept the number of people allowed to be in the store. Just to give you one example. And we have also, as Anders mentioned, in the quarter, given that it is the Christmas quarter, and there was very, very low visibility and very short notice between restrictions being announced and being imposed, so our store staff planning and spend store was not quite as efficient as it usually is. And there is some one-off-ish nature in that as well. So I think the key point is you should not use this as an indication of the level going forward.

A
Anders Tormod Skole-Sørensen

Yes. To the -- and I totally agree with Gregers there. It's important not just to take that number, saying that's number one we should use. And as to the depreciations and amortizations, well, yes, there will be variations. I'm not going to, at this point, be nailed to the wall and whether or not it's good. I don't think it's fair to say that there's a fundamental shift here to talk about, but there can be shifts. And obviously, it depends all on how the investments are done. And perhaps some of the investments when we do online, particularly the software-related investments, probably have a slightly more progressive depreciation schedule than things that are done to a physical store. But at this point in time, I don't think this is something that will -- it will not represent a major shift in the numbers right now.

Operator

Our next question comes from Poul Ernst Jessen from Danske Bank.

P
Poul Ernst Jessen
Senior Analyst

Yes. I have 2 question. One, overall, when we take product segments or categories you have, you have a high growth in high end and wellbeing. Is it fair to assume that on the high end, it's because that people travel less, the lower growing masses because that the supermarkets take a fair share of the movements in the market there? And in the wellbeing, how much of that is corona related, the plus 23%?

G
Gregers Christian Wedell-Wedellsborg

That's -- so let me comment, yes. Do you want to put the other question? Poul, or should I?

P
Poul Ernst Jessen
Senior Analyst

No. That's fine.

G
Gregers Christian Wedell-Wedellsborg

Yes. Okay. Let's do that. And let me comment on the categories. So high end was clearly stimulated by 2 things. It was stimulated by the holiday stimulus package. And as we've seen throughout the year, given that people don't travel and don't shop with travel retail, we have seen some windfall from that. However, the travel retail purchases are very much impulse purchases or gifts you're buying if you want to travel outside the country. So it's not really just a question of moving travel retail sales into domestic sales. But obviously, there is some kind of tailwind from that. And as for health and wellbeing, we have seen just an underlying increase in that area over the last few years, and that has continued as we have extended ranges, taking more care to market, that particular, upskilled our people to serve on the health. So that is actually an underlying long-term trend. And then in a crisis, people are just more aware of eating vitamins and supplements and so on and so forth, so there's probably a hike from that. As for corona related, we've seen a normalization, if you will. We saw in Q2, as you remember, we saw a bump in the sale of face masks, for example. And now face masks are everywhere, and prices have gone down. So it's less -- much less significant than it was in previous quarters. And also, I should remark that all those kinds of goods are sold with very low margin. So you should keep that into consideration as well. As for the mass beauty, supermarkets have obviously had a very good time and -- but there's also another explanation. I don't think we've lost out to supermarkets in any way. However, in the mass beauty, there's a proportion of that, that is makeup. As you can imagine, lipstick is not really in favor in an era where everybody wears a face mask. So makeup and lipstick and those kinds of color cosmetics which actually takes up a big part of the mass beauty has been negatively impacted, especially in periods with lockdowns.

P
Poul Ernst Jessen
Senior Analyst

Okay. And then on Matas. You mentioned that the cost for the online fulfillment is up DKK 23 million year-over-year. I assume that's not including the personnel-related to the fulfillment.

G
Gregers Christian Wedell-Wedellsborg

That's correct.

A
Anders Tormod Skole-Sørensen

Are you talking about what was in the accounts that to your number, make sure what we're talking about.

P
Poul Ernst Jessen
Senior Analyst

I'm trying to figure out. You have an increase in online revenue of DKK 149 million year-over-year. Your increase the OpEx for fulfillment and logistics by DKK 23 million. I'm just trying to figure out how much is then the personnel costs related to online or -- to see what is the contribution margin of the online business.

A
Anders Tormod Skole-Sørensen

Yes. I understand that you're doing that. I just want to make sure that I agree with the number you've given me. I think right now, the DKK 23 million is not a number that's sort of to mind, to check at all. Do you think -- looking at overall, are you looking at overall, other external costs, are you looking at a specific number as, we usually don't give that number. That's what I would say. Yes, trade logistics costs were up 23%. That's correct. And those are, of course, they do not include the staff costs, obviously.

G
Gregers Christian Wedell-Wedellsborg

The staff costs are [kicking and the logistics center are in that one.

A
Anders Tormod Skole-Sørensen

Yes.

P
Poul Ernst Jessen
Senior Analyst

They are included on that one?

A
Anders Tormod Skole-Sørensen

Correct.

P
Poul Ernst Jessen
Senior Analyst

Because if you then assume a normal gross margin of 44% and then you -- on the increased revenue, and you have 18% of that being costs, then you should have a contribution margin well above 20%.

G
Gregers Christian Wedell-Wedellsborg

You're making a number of assumptions. So I don't think that will be...

A
Anders Tormod Skole-Sørensen

An you have a number of assumptions about that. That's not going to hold up. That is absolutely not the way it was when full profit .

P
Poul Ernst Jessen
Senior Analyst

Okay. The final question is on the Club Matas Plus. You said you had a soft launch. Have you any indications on the willingness to pay the DKK 29 by now?

G
Gregers Christian Wedell-Wedellsborg

I think we have seen an encouraging response to the concept, but it's soft launch launched a few weeks ago, so it would be, I think, misleading to give you any kind of indication on that, other than that it's been an encouraging response.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Matts Krisgard from Carnegie.

U
Unknown Analyst

My first question is on the online business as well. Can you sort of decompose online growth a bit? So how much of online growth is, for example, driven by an increase in the basket size and how much is driven by an improvement in the efficiency at Humlebæk? That is my first question.

G
Gregers Christian Wedell-Wedellsborg

So we don't comment specifically on the basket size for online. But as for the profitability, it is a combination of gross margin improvement due to higher normal sales and the efficiency at Humlebæk. We're just getting better and better at operating Humlebæk and laying out the routes. And there are also some economies of scale just from the sheer volume going through that facility. So that's as far as I can go for now. And I know that this is a central point. And as I mentioned, we report on online profitability and give you a better view of that particular part of the business with the full financial year.

U
Unknown Analyst

Okay. Then on -- can you maybe provide some more details on the Lot 23 projects and what you're going to do in the facility?

G
Gregers Christian Wedell-Wedellsborg

Yes. So what we're looking at -- and what Matt is referring to is that we have flagged that we are looking at a logistics review and looking at the future logistics setup for Matas, including the case for automating a bigger part of our central warehousing and the case for supplying both stores and online from the same facility. And that's been an ongoing analysis. And what I will say about that is that COVID and the performance that we've had this year has actually made the case even stronger, because, obviously, we have more certainty about how our online business performs as it grows. And obviously, the bigger the scale on the online, the more attractive that kind of automation investment will be. But we are not at a point where we are ready to share either the solutions that we will pursue or give you an indication of what it costs, except for what we have written in the reports. It's a significant number if you want to do automation.

U
Unknown Analyst

Okay. Then my last question. The ratio is down to 2.2x now, which is below your target ratio. Can you just provide some comments here? What are you planning to do?

G
Gregers Christian Wedell-Wedellsborg

I'll leave that to Anders.

A
Anders Tormod Skole-Sørensen

Yes. At -- it's a -- say a positive news. But obviously, there is no change to the capital allocation. And what else you can give cash is obviously something that will be left to the Board to look at in connection with the full year results.

Operator

There appears to be no further audio questions. So I'll hand back to the speakers for any other questions they may have.

G
Gregers Christian Wedell-Wedellsborg

Thank you very much for joining our call. Thank you, operator, for running the show. With this, we will conclude today's conference call. As always, we will be happy to take questions one to one. So please get in touch with Henrik if you need anything. Thank you so much. Bye-bye.

A
Anders Tormod Skole-Sørensen

Thank you.

Operator

This now concludes our conference call. Thank you all for attending. You may now disconnect your lines.