ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc
HKEX:2057
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ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc
HKEX:2057
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Valtecne SpA
MIL:VLT
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc (2057) under the Base Case is 193.14 HKD per share.
Compared with the current market price of 157.6 HKD, the stock appears
Undervalued by 18% .
The intrinsic value is calculated using the DCF method. The model assumes revenue grows about 20% in 2026, then slows: about 10% a year on average over the next five years, below its five-year pace of 14%. If revenue grew at its five-year pace of 14%, the estimate would be about HK$339.
Do our valuations actually work? See backtest results .
Cheap or expensive for this stock?
This block shows whether today’s valuation is cheap or expensive compared with the stock’s own history, and what happened after similar valuations in the past.
We compare the gap between the stock’s price and our estimated value over time.
- Undervalued can still be historically expensive. The stock may trade below our estimated value, but usually offer an even bigger discount.
- Overvalued can still be historically cheap. The stock may trade above our estimated value, but usually carry an even higher premium.
Market expectations can differ from our model, which may not fully capture everything affecting the price. That is why some stocks regularly trade above our estimated value and others below it.
The scale and chart show how today’s valuation compares with the past. The cards summarize past returns and waiting times until the stock stopped being cheap or expensive. This can happen because the price changed, our estimated value changed, or both.
Only completed periods are included. These are past results, not forecasts. The usual historical range does not necessarily mean fair value.
Fundamental Analysis
What ZTO Express (Cayman) Does
ZTO Express is a Chinese parcel delivery company that moves packages for e-commerce sellers, brands, and individual customers. It runs a nationwide express network built around sorting centers, line-haul transport, and local delivery partners, so it sits in the middle of the package journey rather than handling every delivery by itself. Its core job is to get high volumes of small parcels from merchants to households and pickup points quickly and reliably.
- Headquarters
- China CN
- Employees
- 23 399
- IPO date
- Oct 27, 2016
ZTO Express (Cayman) has no economic moat
Shippers can send ordinary parcels through several competing nationwide carriers, and ZTO’s network does not make customers dependent on it. With alternatives such as YTO, STO, Yunda, J&T, SF Express, JD Logistics and China Post competing for similar deliveries, neither customer lock-in nor a brand that reliably commands higher prices keeps rivals out.
Read the full moat analysis
Earnings Waterfall
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc
The intrinsic value for ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc (2057) under the Base Case is 193.14 HKD.
Compared with the current market price of 157.6 HKD, the stock appears Undervalued by 18% .