Z

Zhejiang Expressway Co Ltd
HKEX:576

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Zhejiang Expressway Co Ltd
HKEX:576
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Price: 7.55 HKD Market Closed
Market Cap: 45.6B HKD

DCF Value

This DCF valuation model was created by Alpha Spread and was last updated on Nov 29, 2025.

Estimated DCF Value of one 576 stock is 9.66 HKD. Compared to the current market price of 7.55 HKD, the stock is Undervalued by 22%.

DCF Value
Base Case
9.66 HKD
Undervaluation 22%
DCF Value
Price
Z
Worst Case
Base Case
Best Case
DCF Value: 9.66 HKD

Present Value Calculation

This block is the starting point of the DCF valuation process. It calculates the present value of a company's forecasted cash flows based on selected operating model. Adjust key parameters like discount rate and terminal growth, and alter inputs such as revenue growth and margins to see their impact on valuation.

DCF Model
Base Case Scenario

The present value of cash flows over the next 5 years amounts to 7.6B CNY. The present value of the terminal value is 45.4B CNY. The total present value equals 53B CNY.
Forecast Period
Years
Discount Rate
%
Terminal Growth
%
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DCF Model
Year 1

forecasted

Year 2

forecasted

Year 3

forecasted

Year 4

forecasted

Year 5

forecasted

Terminal

forecasted

Net Income
Revenue20 78821 60222 85323 84524 53424 887
Absolute Value
Growth
Net Margin29.25%27.26%27.63%27.55%27.46%27.38%
Absolute Value
Net Income6 0815 8906 3146 5686 7386 814
Free Cash Flow to Equity
Net CapEx-5 338-4 891-4 480-3 951-3 320-2 612
Absolute Value
As % of Revenue
Debt Ratio0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Absolute Value
Net CapEx Financed by Equity-5 338-4 891-4 480-3 951-3 320-2 612
FCFE7429981 8342 6183 4184 202
Present Value
Discount Rate6.69%6.69%6.69%6.69%6.69%6.69%
Present Value6968771 5102 0202 47345 439
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DCF Value Calculation

This stage translates the present value into DCF value per share. For firm valuation models, it adjusts present value for debt and assets to derive equity value (skipped if using equity valuation model). Finally, this equity value is divided by the number of shares to determine the DCF value per share.

Present Value to DCF Value
Capital Structure

Present Value 53B CNY
Equity Value 53B CNY
/ Shares Outstanding 6B
Value per Share 8.78 CNY
CNY / HKD Exchange Rate 1.1005
576 DCF Value 9.66 HKD
Undervalued by 22%

You are using the equity valuation model. In this approach, further calculations for converting firm value to equity value are not required. The present value, obtained in the present value calculation block, already represents the equity value.

The DCF value per share is derived by dividing the present value by the number of shares:

Present Value
53B HKD
/
Number of Shares
6B
=
DCF Value
9.66 HKD

Valuation Analysis

Sensitivity Analysis
DCF Value Sensitivity Analysis

Sensitivity Analysis assesses how changes in key factors like revenue growth, margin, and discount rate affect a stock's DCF value. By visualizing various scenarios, from significant downturns to optimistic growth, this tool helps you understand potential valuation shifts, aiding in risk assessment and strategic decision-making.

DCF Financials
Financials used in DCF Calculation

Revenue
20.8B 24.9B
Net Income
6.1B 6.8B
FCFE
742.5m 4.2B

What is the DCF value of one 576 stock?

Estimated DCF Value of one 576 stock is 9.66 HKD. Compared to the current market price of 7.55 HKD, the stock is Undervalued by 22%.

The true DCF Value lies somewhere between the worst-case and best-case scenario values. This is because the future is not predetermined, and the stock's DCF Value is based almost entirely on the future of the company. Knowing the full range of possible stock DCF values gives a complete picture of the investment risks and opportunities.

How was the DCF Value calculated?

1. Present Value Calculation. Utilizing the DCF operating model, Zhejiang Expressway Co Ltd's future cash flows are projected and then discounted using a chosen discount rate to determine its Present Value, which is calculated at 53B CNY.

2. DCF Value Calculation. The company's capital structure is employed to derive the total Equity Value from the previously calculated Present Value of the cash flow. This Equity Value, when divided by the total number of outstanding shares, yields the DCF Value of 9.66 HKD per share.

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