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Yapi ve Kredi Bankasi AS
IST:YKBNK.E

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Yapi ve Kredi Bankasi AS
IST:YKBNK.E
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Price: 37.04 TRY 1.31% Market Closed
Market Cap: ₺312.9B

Q1-2025 Earnings Call

AI Summary
Earnings Call on Apr 28, 2025

Net Profit Surge: Yapi Kredi reported TRY 11.4 billion net profit for Q1 2025, up 73% quarter-on-quarter, outperforming expectations and previous guidance.

Margin Expansion: Net interest margin widened 136 basis points year-to-date to 2.1%, driven by a strong increase in Turkish lira loan-deposit spreads and higher net interest income.

Strong Fee Growth: Fee income rose 12% quarter-on-quarter and 44% year-over-year, with robust contributions from the card business and ongoing customer base expansion.

Prudent Provisions: Gross provisions increased 44% quarter-on-quarter, bringing total coverage to 3.9% (4% adjusted for NPL sales), reflecting continued prudence in risk management.

Asset Quality Stable: NPL ratio stood at 3.4% with limited net NPL inflows; cost of risk reached 1.78%, which management expects to be the year's peak.

Guidance Under Review: Management highlighted potential pressure on net interest margin in Q2 due to high funding costs but maintained mid-20% ROE guidance for now, noting any update will depend on monetary policy developments.

Deposit Growth & Liquidity: Turkish lira deposits rose 7% quarter-on-quarter, foreign currency deposits up 12%, and liquidity coverage ratios remain strong.

Fee Growth Upside: Management sees upside risk to fee growth guidance due to rising inflation.

Operating Environment

The first quarter began with favorable macro conditions—falling interest rates and improving inflation—until mid-March, when volatility rose due to a shift in Central Bank policy. The Central Bank responded by raising rates, currently funding the market at 49%. Inflation increased to 38% in March, with further rises expected in April and May due to currency volatility, energy prices, and weather impacts on agriculture. Management expects tight monetary policy to persist at least until July, after which rate cuts may resume depending on inflation data.

Profitability and Margins

Yapi Kredi posted a strong Q1 profit, with net profit up 73% quarter-on-quarter and return on tangible equity reaching 23.4%. Net interest margin widened to 2.1%, supported by a 515 basis point year-to-date expansion in Turkish lira loan-deposit spreads. Despite some negative impact from securities and repo funding, robust core revenue growth and treasury activities drove performance. Management noted that margin expansion may come under pressure in Q2 due to higher funding costs but expects some recovery in the second half if rate cuts resume.

Loan and Deposit Growth

Turkish lira loans grew 4% quarter-on-quarter and 17% year-over-year, with foreign currency loans increasing 8% and 31%, respectively. Lending growth was diversified across retail and commercial segments, and loan yields climbed to 48.3% year-to-date. On the funding side, Turkish lira deposits rose 7% quarter-on-quarter, and demand deposits grew 8%. Foreign currency deposits increased 12% over the quarter. The bank maintained deposit pricing below sector averages and optimized funding costs by adjusting the funding mix, notably reducing repo funding.

Fee Income and Cost Efficiency

Fee income saw strong gains, up 12% quarter-on-quarter and 44% year-over-year, led by card business, money transfers, bancassurance, and investment products. The bank’s strong customer franchise and increased product penetration support ongoing fee growth. Operating expenses rose 10% quarter-on-quarter, mainly due to inflation and customer acquisition costs, but fee coverage of OpEx remained high at 91%. Management expects inflation to continue influencing both costs and fees but sees stronger upside for fee growth.

Asset Quality and Provisions

The bank continued its prudent approach to risk, raising gross provisions by 44% quarter-on-quarter and total coverage to 3.9% (4% adjusted for NPL sales). The NPL ratio was 3.4%, with most inflows from unsecured consumer loans but at levels below sector averages. Collections improved, resulting in limited net NPL inflows. Cost of risk stood at 1.78% in Q1 and is expected to stabilize or improve from here, barring further rate hikes.

Liquidity and Capital

The bank improved its loan-to-deposit ratio to 89% overall and maintained high liquidity coverage ratios—over 150% in Turkish lira and 500% in foreign currency. CET1 ratio was 10.7% with a comfortable buffer of 262 basis points, and total capital adequacy stood at 14.4%. Management is confident in capital levels and plans to build additional buffers before potential growth in 2026.

Guidance and Outlook

Management maintained its mid-20% ROE guidance and expects below-inflation loan growth for the year. However, net interest margin is likely to be under pressure in Q2, and any guidance change will depend on how long the Central Bank maintains high rates. Fee growth guidance has upside risk due to inflation, while cost-to-income efficiency is expected to remain strong. Asset quality guidance is unchanged but could be affected by prolonged high rates.

Deposit Dollarization and Market Flows

After mid-March, deposit dollarization increased, primarily driven by corporate demand. The sector saw a net increase of over $2 billion in dollarized deposits, but this trend is now stabilizing. The Central Bank’s high Turkish lira rates are expected to curb further dollarization. Reserve usage has been notable but gross reserves remain above $130 billion, and management believes reserves are adequate for current volatility.

Net Profit
TRY 11.4 billion
Change: Up 73% quarter-on-quarter.
Return on Tangible Equity
23.4%
Guidance: Mid-20s% for the full year.
Return on Assets
1.7%
No Additional Information
Net Interest Margin
2.1%
Change: Widened 136 bps year-to-date and 57 bps quarter-on-quarter.
Guidance: Q2 margin expected to be challenging and under pressure; full-year outcome depends on monetary policy.
Total Coverage Ratio
3.9%
No Additional Information
Adjusted Coverage Ratio (with NPL sales)
4%
No Additional Information
NPL Ratio
3.4%
No Additional Information
Cost of Risk
1.78%
Guidance: Expected to remain around 1.75% for the year.
Turkish Lira Loan Growth
up 4% quarter-on-quarter, up 17% year-over-year
Change: Up 4% quarter-on-quarter, up 17% year-over-year.
Guidance: Full-year growth below inflation.
Foreign Currency Loan Growth
up 8% quarter-on-quarter, up 31% year-over-year
Change: Up 8% quarter-on-quarter, up 31% year-over-year.
Turkish Lira Deposit Growth
up 7% quarter-on-quarter, up 26% year-over-year
Change: Up 7% quarter-on-quarter, up 26% year-over-year.
Foreign Currency Deposit Growth
up 12% quarter-on-quarter, up 6% year-over-year
Change: Up 12% quarter-on-quarter, up 6% year-over-year.
Loan-to-Deposit Ratio
89%
No Additional Information
Turkish Lira Loan-to-Deposit Ratio
101%
No Additional Information
Turkish Lira Liquidity Coverage Ratio
above 150%
No Additional Information
Foreign Currency Liquidity Coverage Ratio
500%
No Additional Information
Core Revenue Margin
6.6%
Change: Up 76 bps quarter-on-quarter and 151 bps year-to-date.
Fee Coverage of OpEx
91%
No Additional Information
Capital Adequacy Ratio
14.4%
No Additional Information
CET1 Ratio
10.7%
No Additional Information
Net Profit
TRY 11.4 billion
Change: Up 73% quarter-on-quarter.
Return on Tangible Equity
23.4%
Guidance: Mid-20s% for the full year.
Return on Assets
1.7%
No Additional Information
Net Interest Margin
2.1%
Change: Widened 136 bps year-to-date and 57 bps quarter-on-quarter.
Guidance: Q2 margin expected to be challenging and under pressure; full-year outcome depends on monetary policy.
Total Coverage Ratio
3.9%
No Additional Information
Adjusted Coverage Ratio (with NPL sales)
4%
No Additional Information
NPL Ratio
3.4%
No Additional Information
Cost of Risk
1.78%
Guidance: Expected to remain around 1.75% for the year.
Turkish Lira Loan Growth
up 4% quarter-on-quarter, up 17% year-over-year
Change: Up 4% quarter-on-quarter, up 17% year-over-year.
Guidance: Full-year growth below inflation.
Foreign Currency Loan Growth
up 8% quarter-on-quarter, up 31% year-over-year
Change: Up 8% quarter-on-quarter, up 31% year-over-year.
Turkish Lira Deposit Growth
up 7% quarter-on-quarter, up 26% year-over-year
Change: Up 7% quarter-on-quarter, up 26% year-over-year.
Foreign Currency Deposit Growth
up 12% quarter-on-quarter, up 6% year-over-year
Change: Up 12% quarter-on-quarter, up 6% year-over-year.
Loan-to-Deposit Ratio
89%
No Additional Information
Turkish Lira Loan-to-Deposit Ratio
101%
No Additional Information
Turkish Lira Liquidity Coverage Ratio
above 150%
No Additional Information
Foreign Currency Liquidity Coverage Ratio
500%
No Additional Information
Core Revenue Margin
6.6%
Change: Up 76 bps quarter-on-quarter and 151 bps year-to-date.
Fee Coverage of OpEx
91%
No Additional Information
Capital Adequacy Ratio
14.4%
No Additional Information
CET1 Ratio
10.7%
No Additional Information

Earnings Call Transcript

Transcript
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Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. I am Mina, your Chorus Call operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Yapi Kredi conference call and live webcast to present and discuss the Yapi Kredi First Quarter 2025 Financial Results Conference Call and Live Webcast.

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Kursad Keteci, CSO; and Ms. Hilal Varol, Head of Investor Relations and Strategic Analysis. Mr. Keteci, you may now proceed.

E
E. Keteci
executive

Good afternoon, and thank you all for joining our first quarter 2025 earnings call. Starting with the operating environment. First quarter evolution was in line with expectations until the mid-March. Rates were coming down, inflation was improving as planned. Volatility in the market started after mid of March. Since then, we are observing pressure on inflation and accordingly interest rates. As a response to this volatility, Central Bank changed its monetary stance.

After 3 consecutive cuts by 250 bps since the beginning of the year, Central Bank first increased rates to the high end of the corridor. And recently, in April meeting, Central Bank also hiked the overnight rate to 46% and high end of the corridor to 49% and currently funding the market at 49%. Latest inflation print as of March is 38%. And in April and May, monthly inflation reading is going to be higher given the recent volatility in currency, hike in energy prices and harsh frost impacting agricultural production.

That being said, with the ongoing tight monetary policy and slowdown in economic activity, we expect the improvement in headline inflation trajectory to sustain through the rest of the year. All incorporated, we foresee the tight monetary stance to sustain at least until July. Depending on the monthly inflation reading in May and onwards, Central Bank might have room to restart the disrupted rate cut cycle, In this perspective, macro developments in the first quarter of the year was very supportive in terms of TL loan deposit spread and evolution of net interest margin, especially for us Yapi Kredi.

Now looking at our strong first quarter performance. I'm moving to the second page of our presentation. In the first quarter of the year, we posted TRY 11.4 billion net profit and going up a strong 73% quarter-on-quarter. Our return on tangible equity and return on assets reached 23.4% and 1.7%, respectively. Our performance in the quarter was stronger than our expectations and thus the given guidance. Main driver of the performance was the strong top line. Net interest margin widened 136 bps year-to-date to 2.1% and NII increased 31% quarterly. From its already high base, fees went up by an additional 12% in the first Q. In the quarter, trading income through treasury operations was also supportive.

All incorporated improving every quarter since second quarter of '24, revenues went up by an additional 31% quarterly in the first quarter. In this quarter, we continued to set aside precautionary provisions in a prudent manner. Our gross provisions increased by another 44% quarterly, bringing our total coverage to 3.9%. Adjusted for the quarterly NPL sales, coverage reached 4%. Equally important, we continued our strong collection performance in first quarter also.

Some important drivers for our performance are as follows: through active loan and effective deposit pricing, we successfully widened Turkish lira loan deposit spread by 515 bps year-to-date to 4.6% Strength in fee generation maintained with 12% quarterly and 44% yearly increase. And this performance is driven by already built and growing customer base and successful increase in product penetration. Operating expense increase was 10% quarterly, 53% yearly, mainly due to inflation pass-through impact and also ongoing customer acquisition costs as well as investments to our human capital. All in all, our fee coverage of OpEx still stands at strong 91% as of the first quarter.

On the asset quality side, during the quarter, as I previously stated, we continue to provision the loan base in a prudent manner. We have further increased the NPL sale adjusted coverage level to 4% and this already creates additional buffer for the upcoming quarters. In first quarter, nonperforming loan inflows from unsecured consumer loans sustained as expected, albeit low sector. NPL collection, on the other hand, continued to improve. NPL inflows increased 19% quarterly, whereas recoveries further surged 44%. This resulted in a limited 7% rise in the net NPL inflows. And as I stated, these levels are lower than the market averages.

Our cost of risk stood at 1.78% in the first quarter, which is likely to be the highest level we will see in 2025 based on this operating environment. And as we already started to witness a stabilization in the retail inflows.

Now I'm leaving the floor to Hilal. She will provide the details behind our strong numbers. Hilal?

H
Hilal Varol
executive

Thank you very much, Kursad, and I thank you all for joining our call today. I will start with Page 3. In the first quarter of the year, we sustained our selective lending through strategic pricing, supporting our Turkish lira loan yields further amidst the declining interest rates. Our quarterly Turkish lira loans went up by 4%, while the annual increase stood at 17%. We also continue to see the lucrative growth availability on the foreign currency side. Our foreign currency loans increased 8% quarter-on-quarter. This is in dollar terms, bringing the annual growth to 31%.

On the Turkish lira loans, our growth was very well diversified and aligned with the monthly growth caps. General purpose loans increased 5%, mortgages up by 7%, credit cards up 4%, business loans, 3% and these all providing us room for active and efficient pricing. Accordingly, in the quarter, we maintained above sector pricing. Our consumer and commercial loan rates were 300 basis points and 500 basis points above the sector, respectively. Please note that these rates are in simple terms. As a result, adjusted for the credit cards, our loan yields went up 278 basis points year-to-date to 48.3%.

We are and we will be continuing our selective and lucrative lending strategy, which will continue to support our spreads in the rest of the year, and we will act in an agile manner.

Moving to the funding side, we are on Page 4. We are optimizing the cost of funding via robust demand deposit performance and agile time deposit pricing. This is definitely thanks to our widespread customer base. Turkish lira deposits increased 7% quarter-on-quarter and 26% year-over-year. Our Turkish lira demand deposit base, on the other hand, increased further by 8% in the quarter, reaching to a very strong 63% drop annually. The share of Turkish lira demand deposits in total improved further, now stands at 28% and total stood at 44%. I think that you will agree this is now a proven track record.

This is again, driven by small ticket deposits, which makes up 78% of our deposit base and for sure, supporting our cost of funding. Foreign currency deposits, on the other hand, increased 12% quarter-on-quarter, up 6% year-over-year when the share of foreign currency demand deposits in total stood at 65%. All incorporated, thanks to widespread customer base, we continue to price the deposits below the sector.

In first quarter, our Turkish lira term deposit rates remained 100 basis points below the sector. And once again, this is also in simple terms. As a result of all, our Turkish lira deposit costs improved and eye-catching 294 basis points quarter-on-quarter and 338 basis points year-to-date. Equally important, showing our agility in balance sheet management, following the rate hike, we have started to lower the share of repo funding, which has already came down to 31% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter, and this happened mainly in the last month, and we still are managing the funding mix in a very agile manner. This all supported liquidity.

Our LDR, loan-to-deposit ratio improved to 89% and Turkish lira loan-to-deposit ratio is at 101% Turkish lira liquidity coverage ratio is above 150% and foreign currency LCR as high as 500% as we speak.

Now moving to the details of our strong profit, starting with the top line performance. We are on Page 5. We had an eye-catching performance in top line as our robust spread expansion drive the margin improvement. Thanks to the strong support from the core revenues and [indiscernible] treasury activities, total revenues increased 31% quarter-on-quarter, reaching to TRY 47 billion. Core revenue margin went up by 76 basis points quarterly and 151 basis points year-to-date to 6.6%.

Quarterly improvement in Turkish lira loan deposit spread, as Kursad already mentioned, is as high as 315 basis points, and this includes credit cards and year-to-date expansion reached to 515 basis points. As a result, in the quarter, our net interest margin widened 136 basis points year-to-date and 57 basis points quarter-on-quarter to 2.1%.

Please note that we are just normalizing the CPI linker income in 2024 fourth quarter for the CPI reading of the year-end 48.5%, while our first quarter CPI assumption is at 30%, meaning our very strong performance in the spreads more than compensated for the lower net interest income contribution of linkers in the first quarter of the year.

Looking at the details, support to net interest margin through core was 295 basis points when securities had 186 basis points negative impact. This is mainly through linkers, as you can assume. Repo and borrowing impact was 64 bps minus. This core NIM performance is showing our future and further improvement capability in the upcoming quarters and years.

On the next page, we are looking at our fee performance. We have increased our fee base by 12% quarterly and 44% year-over-year from its already high base. We are continuously leveraging on customer franchise as well as sustaining diversification efforts. Our payment system business continues to support our fees. Net fee income from card business increased an additional 7% quarter-on-quarter and 53% year-over-year.

Money transfers with ongoing increase on number of transactions, an important proof of our customer penetration, up by 21% quarterly and 55% year-over-year. Bancassurance fees up by 76% in the quarter despite limited loan growth. Investment products up 19% in the quarter. Once again, the ongoing customer penetration will continue to support our already high level of fee generation.

Now moving to OpEx. We are on Page 7. Inflation pass-through impact is weighing on our cost increase, and this is as expected. OpEx increased 10% quarter-on-quarter and 53% year-over-year, making up 39% of our total costs, HR-related costs increased 17% in the quarter and 40% year-over-year. Running costs came down 18% in the quarter, but went up 53%. This is mainly due to the exchange rate impact as well as definitely the pass-through impact of the inflation. In the quarter, we have maintained our very strong efficiencies. Fee coverage of OpEx, very strong at 91%, cost to average assets at 4% level.

Now moving to a hot topic, asset quality. In the quarter, as expected and as we were telling, NPL inflows to unsecured consumer loans sustained, albeit lower than the sector, we are doing better than the sector, thanks to our strong customer base and definitely looking at the share of our salary customers, it is supporting our asset quality. Equally important, collections further improved. We continued our uncompromised prudency despite this in provisioning and built further precautionary buffers for the rest of the year.

In the quarter, NPL inflows were TRY 13.8 billion when collections improved further to TRY 5.3 billion. As a result, net NPL inflows increased slightly to TRY 8.5 billion, TRY 7.5 billion of which was through consumer loans and credit cards. In the first quarter, our NPL ratio stood at 3.4%. Looking at the cost of risk level, further increasing the total coverage to 3.9% and even if we adjust TRY 1.7 billion fully provisioned NPL sale in the quarter, 4%. Our cost of risk stood at 178 basis points.

Please also note that the share of SMEs in our loan portfolio is limited at 8%. Equally important, we have a very well-diversified loan mix in terms of sectors. Our sector share is lower than 7%, which is infrastructure and construction, most of which is state guaranteed products.

Now moving to Page 9 and solvency. Internal capital generation, which we kick started in the last quarter of 2024 is sustaining. Our CET1 ratio stood at 10.7%. Our buffer is at 262 basis points and above our promised 200 bps buffer despite immediate impact of the volatility mainly it came in the last 3 days of the quarter. And the second thing is the annual operational risk impact. Capital adequacy ratio, on the other hand, stood at 14.4%. Operational risk impact was 51 basis points, while the macro impact was 50.

In terms of sensitivities, the impacts are still limited. First 10% depreciation has 32 basis points impact on CET1 and a limited 9 basis points on capital adequacy ratio. The breakeven USD Turkish lira rate is in the range of 80. And these all are [indiscernible] calculations, as you can imagine. The impact of the first 100 basis points piloted in the Turkish lira yield curve is also limited at 15 basis points. Breakeven NPL ratio is around 7.5% versus our recent level of 3.4%.

All incorporated, we are very comfortable with our capital levels for today as we will continue to build further buffers through the year before the growth opportunities kick start in 2026.

Now I'm leaving the floor to Kursad for closing remarks, and then we will be taking your questions. Kursad?

E
E. Keteci
executive

Thank you, Hilal. And I would like to take this occasion to extend our thanks to our stakeholders who stand by us with trust and support and to our dedicated employees who contributed to the achievements of our bank. On behalf of the whole team, I would like to thank you all for joining our call, and now we can take your questions.

Operator

The first question is from the line of Mehmet Sevim with JPMorgan.

M
Mehmet Sevim
analyst

May I please ask if you could comment on the NIM trends since mid-March. Clearly, core spreads have shown a very strong performance. But NIM recovery was so, so, I think. Overall, it's still at the very beginning of this recovery trajectory. So would you just comment on what you've seen since the volatility in mid-March? And obviously, you're keeping your full year ROE guidance. But at the same time, how do you see the individual lines evolving from here within that?

E
E. Keteci
executive

Thank you, Mehmet. First of all, let me first set the ground. We have guided a bit more conservative operating environment for the year compared to our peers. But let me also be clear that we were not expecting that rate hike. We were expecting mostly not an aggressive rate cuts, but our base case scenario was not also including the rate hikes, which is happening now. And since the beginning of the year, net interest margin has been improving every month. And starting with the mid of March, as you stated, we start seeing an increase in the cost of funding.

But still March overall was higher than February in terms of margin. And still, thanks to our good deposit pricing as well as lending rates, we are able to keep it the same, close to the same. to the March levels as of April. But for sure, May and June will be under pressure and it will be challenging. And it seems that keeping net interest margin in the second quarter as same as the first quarter will be challenging. And if we can do it, it will be a very good success.

And for the remainder of the year, and we are a bit -- in our base case scenario as of now, we are a bit sure that starting with July, we may resume the rate cuts and third quarter will be better than second quarter. But how much these are going to impact our guidance, it's all linked to when this high rate, 49%, even the high end of the corridor will stop. And if it stop in May, then we may still keep our guidance, but it is going to be longer than May. If we are going to stay with this 49% till July and then -- June, July, then it will be challenging also for the guidance. Therefore, we are not able to say anything about the guidance.

But when we see the operating environment settlement, then we will be happy to give that guidance change, if any. But in overall, for our guidance, yes, net interest margin under pressure, but we are able to improve our fee part. Commission income is helping to compensate this net interest margin loss. Therefore, the revenue margin increase could still be there in the second quarter. And then if we can do it also, then it's going to help us for achieving the rest of the year guidance.

And in terms of ROE, we have guided mid-20 levels. We are not changing it now due to the reasons I stated. And we are a bit sure about below inflation level loan growth. We are keeping that. On the FX lending book in the first quarter, we were aggressive up until the cap rate decreases and keep decreases. And it seems we are going to achieve that FX loan book growth, let me say. On the asset quality part, we are also -- this line is also one of our strength, I would say, and we will be able to keep it around 175 bps levels, thanks to our collection capabilities and also for the cost part, below 50% is still relevant.

I hope this answers your question, but if you have any further to ask, please.

Operator

The next question is from the line of Konstantin Rozantsev with JPMorgan.

K
Konstantin Rozantsev
analyst

2 questions. First one, could you comment on what trends...

H
Hilal Varol
executive

Konstantin, can you please speak a bit louder? We cannot hear you properly.

K
Konstantin Rozantsev
analyst

Yes. Can you hear me better now?

H
Hilal Varol
executive

Yes. Thank you.

K
Konstantin Rozantsev
analyst

Could you please comment on what trends do you observe with respect to retail and corporate dollarization in the past few days or 1 week. So what's the most recent on this as regards to deposit dollarization by both retail and corporate? And what's your expectation for the very near term, if you see any risks around this?

The second question is about the -- so we see in the data that reserves at the Central Bank level keep dropping. So could you please maybe comment if -- what flows do you see at the bank? How can you explain this kind of developments over the recent days as regards to reserves?

E
E. Keteci
executive

Thank you, Konstantin. And for your first question about the dollarization in terms of deposits. And since mid of March, we've seen a demand both for the corporates, especially more on the corporate as well as some individuals. Until mid of March in total FX term deposits or the investment funds, et cetera, were positive in terms of flow. But since mid of March, we have seen that it's reversed back. And the amount of dollar demand already surpassed the first part of the quarter. Therefore, on a net basis, in terms of dollarization, both in deposits and as well as the funds, it's slightly higher than $2 billion in total for the sector. What I'm trying to say up until mid of March, there was a dedollarization. But starting with mid of March, dollarization started.

Now it's at breakeven for the sector. And since one of the big player in the sector, we are also observing the same. But what I would add additionally, the corporate demand in terms of dollar is higher than retail demand. And for the upcoming periods, what is our expectation, since the Turkish lira rate is 49, it's quite high. And we believe this dollarization demand is going to be minimized throughout every week and which is also partially being seen in the weeks of latest weeks. But with 49% Turkish lira rates, it seems that the Central Bank is aiming to stop this dollarization and we will be following closely.

And for the reserves, the second question of yours for the reserves, there have been some consumption on the reserves, as you are also following up to $50 billion levels. But after all those, still the gross reserves is more than $130 billion and also net reserves is still positive and Central Bank is trying to keep this tightening and they are using the reserves accordingly. Maybe the pace of reserve usage will be lower, but at least these reserves are quite adequate to deal with those volatility.

K
Konstantin Rozantsev
analyst

Understood. And the recent data over the past few days and 1 week on retail and corporate dollarization, it is kind of broadly in line with the prior record since mid-March? Or is there anything that kind of suggests that the trends are becoming more alarming or it's still stable relatively?

E
E. Keteci
executive

Trend is getting stable at the first week of -- after mid of March, it was an aggressive demand, but now it is stabilizing. And therefore, we see that it's going to be minimized.

Operator

The next question is from the line of Simon Nellis with Citibank.

S
Simon Nellis
analyst

Just a quick one on fees. The growth that you posted in the first quarter would have to decelerate to kind of hit your full year target. Can you just walk me through why you expect kind of a deceleration in fee growth? Or is there upside risk to the fees? And it sounds like you were suggesting that there could be.

E
E. Keteci
executive

Thank you, Simon. The deceleration for the fees growth is depending on the inflation because we were expecting that inflation is going to be below 30%. And now there is a risk on that inflation -- year-end inflation. And therefore, as it guided, this deceleration may not happen. Therefore, there is a positive upside risk for the fee growth.

S
Simon Nellis
analyst

Okay. And which quarter were you thinking was going to be the weakest, I guess, the later quarters given lower inflation.

E
E. Keteci
executive

Later quarters, it should be considering that inflation trend will be in a decreasing levels since the last quarter, quarter 3 and quarter 4. But in overall, with this volatility happened, there is an upside risk for our fee growth guidance.

S
Simon Nellis
analyst

And then my other question would just be on the tax rate, which was quite low in the quarter. What's the outlook for the effective tax rate for the full year? I think the effective tax rate in the solar accounts was less than 14%.

E
E. Keteci
executive

Yes, Simon, the solar accounts doesn't show the real picture. I would recommend you to look at the consolidated accounts, why so? On solar account, net profit of the subsidiaries is already included in before tax lines. Therefore, you don't see the tax impact of these subsidiaries. Therefore, it is better for you to look at the consolidated one, which is something close to 20%, 22% effective tax rate on consolidated and it's going to stay like that, consolidated.

S
Simon Nellis
analyst

Even next year...

E
E. Keteci
executive

I don't know the tax rate going to be. Therefore, I cannot say any guidance on that. But at least for this year, in our base case scenario, 20%, 25% effective tax rate.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further audio questions. I will now give the floor to management for written questions. Apologies, an audio question just came in. It is from the line of David Taranto with BofA.

D
David Taranto
analyst

What has been the key driver of your trading income in the period? Is it from the volatility around the FX during the quarter? Or have you sold some securities in the period? The reason I'm asking is, a, your mark-to-market losses remained relatively limited in this quarter? And b, I haven't seen a material change on your securities breakdown, but the back book rate for Turkish securities yields, excluding CPI linkers has come down a bit according to my simple calculations.

E
E. Keteci
executive

Thank you, David. For the trading one, I would say it's both related to securities trading as well as swap-related transactions. And also when you look at the yield of the security portfolio, there is an impact of the redemption. Maybe that could be the reason for you not able to see it. But in overall volatility, yes, it's an impact, but our success in treasury activities has always happened, and it is balanced trading income, I would say. There is no specific one-off item.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, we will now proceed with the written questions from our webcast participants.

H
Hilal Varol
executive

Okay. Let's go through the written questions. We have some. Some of them were answered, but I will just read them also.

From Dan Johnson Jones, [indiscernible] were there any one-offs in securities interest income?

No, there are not any one-offs in the securities interest income. But just a note, we lowered the CPI rating for assumption to 30%. Maybe you are seeing that. And also on the CPI part, we -- as Kursad previously mentioned, we had some redemptions.

How do you expect Turkish lira deposit beta to develop over the remaining quarters?

E
E. Keteci
executive

And Denis, for the TL deposit beta, it is increasing and then the TL deposit rate is increasing. But what we are trying to do with our strength in demand deposits, we are trying to minimize the impact. And this quarter, you are going -- in the second quarter versus first quarter, you will see a hike in overall cost of deposits. But third quarter and the fourth quarter should be better than the second quarter levels depending on the rate cut cycle.

H
Hilal Varol
executive

What is gross cost of risk guidance in upcoming quarters?

So we start, as we mentioned that we are looking at the net cost of risk. First of all, it's better if you follow that. Also, we are adjusting the ECL hedge because we had some FX risk on that. So this quarter, it was 178 as Kursad mentioned. It's likely that it will be around that level in the second quarter. Then we will emerge towards our full year guidance to 175 basis points. It will be in that range, you can assume that.

So we answered [ Kemalzar's ] question. Yes, we see an upside risk potential to our fee growth guidance.

So, [ Yamilia ], thank you for your presentation. Could you please comment on potential impact, if any, of tariffs on your loan portfolio, asset, for example, with profitability?

E
E. Keteci
executive

Yamilia, the tariffs specific to Turkey, as you know, it's not as big as the other countries. And for our companies or our customers that have some exporting activities to our site. And when we look at it, there is an insignificant impact in terms of the revenue generation, even if everything goes well internally in terms of our own volatility, if it gets solved, and there is a positive upside for our customers, specifically the companies who are exporters. And therefore, there is no negative impact in terms of loan book, both in asset quality and profitability. It could be positive if everything settled internally, locally, let me say.

H
Hilal Varol
executive

From Valentina. Thank you for the presentation. Can you please share the FX liquidity in dollar billion versus short-term FX wholesale funding and total FX funding in dollars?

So we have around $9 billion worth of liquidity immediate 1-year upcoming maturities are around $5.9 billion, around $2 billion of which is syndications. And our total wholesale funding is around $11.9 billion.

From [ Miraj ], can you give any color related to NIM expectations?

I think we answered that question.

And can you comment on NPL inflow in SME segment?

E
E. Keteci
executive

And Miraj, it is very limited, both due to our underwriting policies and as well as our low composition in terms of SME lending in the total loan book. We are following the sector data in terms of delinquent, in terms of [ comfort ] or bankruptcy application. We have the lowest market share for those customers in SME segment also. I would say, as of now, we are comfortable.

H
Hilal Varol
executive

Can you share government bonds impact on capital adequacy ratio?

So our FX reserves came a TRY 2.8 billion increased TRY 2.8 billion, and the impact on the quarterly impact is around 15, 1-5, basis points. You can calculate the overall impact on that.

And the other question is -- and how much do you assess the impact of the new action taken regarding the interest paid on required reserves? How much can it reduce deposit costs from Mustafa [indiscernible]?

E
E. Keteci
executive

Mustafa [indiscernible], thank you for the question. It is very limited. It is insignificant. I would say, yes, it is a positive in terms of interest income, but it is limited in terms for the deposit cost.

H
Hilal Varol
executive

From Valentina about cost of risk.

Do you see an upside risk to your guidance? What trends do you see for retail and corporate book? Is there any particular sector that could potentially surprise negatively?

E
E. Keteci
executive

Valentina, for the cost of risk, we would like to keep our guidance as we stated, depending on the rate environment, if there is going to be a need for further rate hike, then it could damage the asset quality for sure. But as of now, we are assuming our base case scenario, this volatility will stop and then we will go back to -- we will resume the rate cuts at least in the third quarter. And -- but if it's going to be extended this high rate environment, then there could be some asset quality issues for the corporate and commercial sector. But as of now, it is not our base case scenario.

H
Hilal Varol
executive

From [ Hakan ], does higher inflation trajectory affect your guidance on operating costs as well as it affects your guidance on fee growth?

E
E. Keteci
executive

And Hakan, the impact on fees is much higher than impact could happen for the cost. And therefore, we believe the just ratio, the cost -- the fee coverage over the cost will stay high in a nutshell.

H
Hilal Varol
executive

From Konstantin, should we expect the bank to call it Tier 2 bond, which is callable in January 2026?

E
E. Keteci
executive

Konstantin, an early decision-making, I would say if we comment anything on that. But as you know, we know how these instruments work in the market, and we are an investor-friendly company, investor-friendly bank and nothing could happen for our investors negatively, I would say.

H
Hilal Varol
executive

One last question from Irfan, PhillipCapital. Your equity growth seems to diverge from peers. What is the reason for this divergence?

E
E. Keteci
executive

And Irfan, I believe you are asking in terms of positive divergence and the reason behind there are some valuation changes in every year we do for the fixed asset, et cetera. It could be the reason, I would say. It is not something that we specifically follow. It is the business -- ordinary business.

H
Hilal Varol
executive

We do not have any further questions. So thank you all for joining our call. If you have any further questions, you can always connect directly to us and our Investor Relations team. Thank you. Bye-bye.

E
E. Keteci
executive

Thank you.

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