C

CIE Automotive SA
MAD:CIE

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CIE Automotive SA
MAD:CIE
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Price: 28.65 EUR -0.69% Market Closed
Market Cap: €3.4B

Q1-2025 Earnings Call

AI Summary
Earnings Call on May 7, 2025

Record Q1 Results: CIE Automotive reported the best first quarter in its history, with record sales, margins, and net profit despite a challenging market.

Sales & Margins: Quarterly sales exceeded EUR 1 billion and EBITDA margin rose by 500 basis points to 19%, with EBIT margin above 14%.

Cash Flow & Debt: Operating cash flow reached EUR 126 million, up 4% YoY, and net financial debt fell below EUR 1 billion for the first time since 2019.

2025 Guidance Affirmed: Management expects to meet its 2025 targets, including a 19% margin, and sees similar margin levels for the rest of the year.

Market Divergence: Weakness persists in Europe and North America, but China, India, and Brazil showed strong growth.

M&A Strategy: Focus remains on India, Brazil, and Mexico for growth, with limited appetite for deals in Europe.

Tariff Exposure Limited: Recent US tariffs are not expected to have a direct material effect due to CIE's local-for-local production approach.

Market Performance by Region

CIE Automotive saw divergent performance across key markets. Europe and North America experienced production contractions due to regulatory uncertainty, competition from Chinese vehicles, inventory normalization, and cautious consumer demand. In contrast, China, India, and Brazil reported strong vehicle production and sales growth, fueled by domestic consumption, incentives, and favorable macroeconomic conditions. Globally, the automotive market contracted 2% in Q1 and is expected to finish 2025 down about 3%.

Margins and Profitability

The company achieved record operating margins in the quarter. EBITDA margin rose to 19%, expanding 500 basis points, and EBIT margin exceeded 14%, up 300 basis points. Net profit surpassed EUR 94 million, representing over 9% of sales. Management emphasized that margin strength was broad-based across geographies and not dependent on any specific region.

Guidance and Outlook

CIE reaffirmed its commitment to 2025 guidance, with expectations of maintaining a 19% EBITDA margin and similar profitability in coming quarters. Management noted structural regional differences, with challenges persisting in Europe and North America, but solid prospects in India and Brazil. No major changes are anticipated for Q2, though ongoing volatility and uncertainty in some markets were acknowledged.

Tariffs and Trade Policy

Recent US tariffs are not expected to have a direct significant impact on CIE due to its 'local production for local supply' model, especially in Mexico where cross-border exposure is limited. Management highlighted the evolving regulatory situation and saw opportunities in the incentivized localization of components in North America. However, indirect effects and ongoing uncertainty from tariffs remain a watchpoint.

Cash Flow, Debt, and Capital Allocation

Operating cash flow reached EUR 126 million, supporting annual guidance of approximately EUR 500 million. Net financial debt dropped below EUR 1 billion, and leverage is at a historic low of 1.3x EBITDA, providing flexibility for future investments. More than 75% of Q1 cash flow was used for dividend payouts, reflecting a strong commitment to shareholder returns.

M&A and Strategic Growth

CIE is actively exploring acquisitions in India, Brazil, and new Southeast Asian markets, while limiting expansion in structurally challenged Europe. The company is also considering increasing its stake in its Indian subsidiary but is disciplined about acquisition multiples. Greenfield investments, such as in northern Mexico, continue to support growth in key regions.

Restructuring and Cost Management

Management confirmed ongoing daily operational adjustments at plant level to match market conditions but does not foresee any major restructuring plans in the short-term. The company proactively manages sizing and efficiency as part of its regular operations.

Industry Evolution and Diversification

While CIE remains focused on automotive, management is open to exploring opportunities in related sectors such as defense, especially in the context of increased European defense spending. Any diversification would depend on specific opportunities with customer alignment.

Sales
over EUR 1 billion
No Additional Information
EBITDA
over EUR 192 million
No Additional Information
EBITDA Margin
19%
Change: Up 500 basis points YoY.
Guidance: 19% for 2025.
EBIT
over EUR 146 million
No Additional Information
EBIT Margin
over 14%
Change: Up 300 basis points YoY.
Net Profit
over EUR 94 million
No Additional Information
Net Profit Margin
more than 9%
No Additional Information
Operating Cash Flow
EUR 126 million
Change: Up 4% YoY.
Guidance: approx. EUR 500 million in 2025.
Net Financial Debt
less than EUR 1 billion
Change: Reduced.
Leverage (Net Debt/EBITDA)
1.3x
Change: At historic low.
Dividend Payout
over EUR 60 million
Change: Up 3% YoY.
CapEx
slightly over 5% of sales
No Additional Information
Sales
over EUR 1 billion
No Additional Information
EBITDA
over EUR 192 million
No Additional Information
EBITDA Margin
19%
Change: Up 500 basis points YoY.
Guidance: 19% for 2025.
EBIT
over EUR 146 million
No Additional Information
EBIT Margin
over 14%
Change: Up 300 basis points YoY.
Net Profit
over EUR 94 million
No Additional Information
Net Profit Margin
more than 9%
No Additional Information
Operating Cash Flow
EUR 126 million
Change: Up 4% YoY.
Guidance: approx. EUR 500 million in 2025.
Net Financial Debt
less than EUR 1 billion
Change: Reduced.
Leverage (Net Debt/EBITDA)
1.3x
Change: At historic low.
Dividend Payout
over EUR 60 million
Change: Up 3% YoY.
CapEx
slightly over 5% of sales
No Additional Information

Earnings Call Transcript

Transcript
from 0
U
Unknown Executive

Ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon, and welcome to the Release for the First Quarter Results of CIE Automotive. We have Lorea Aristizabal. At the end of the presentation, there will be a Q&A and questions can only be asked in writing via the tool provided in the webcast.

I now hand over to Lorea. Go ahead, please.

L
Lorea Aristizabal
executive

Hello, good afternoon, everyone. Let's start talking about the quarter. And before going into the financial results at length, we're going to review the current situation of the quarter in the main markets we are present in.

Starting with Europe, where production has shrunk by 7% in the first quarter of '25 with a major slowdown, especially in January with a drop of 11% and February 9% in spite of the favorable effect of the Easter schedule, which last year was in March, this year in April. Among the main elements that have had a negative effect on vehicle production in Europe, the following stand out: the possible imposition of new tariffs on European vehicle imports by the U.S. administration, which has created uncertainty, a threat that has penalized the export expectations to one of the main foreign markets and had an impact on production planning in Europe.

Secondly, the fast growth in the sales of vehicles from Chinese manufacturers, 148,000 cars in the first quarter, almost 80% more compared to the same period last year, driven mainly by the plug-in hybrids and the petrol models that are highly competitive in price and with a better position in quality that intensify competition in the European market and have partially displaced the domestic production of the traditional European manufacturers.

Thirdly, the normalization of inventories, which we already had in 2024 after several years of shortages and which has reduced the demand for local production. And finally, of course, I have to mention the growing uncertainty about what kind of vehicles to be bought by the consumer in the context of possible regulatory revisions and probably more gradual technological transition that is delaying many purchasing decisions. It's not all negative. We also want to highlight some positive elements that could reflect a final demand, if not on the rise, at least consolidated demand. And we can mention the recovery in the demand for electric vehicles during the first quarter of '25 with an increase of 3% compared to the last quarter in '24 and an increase of 25% compared to the same quarter of the previous year. Although it's true that the demand in the first quarter of 2024 for electric vehicles was very low because of the decrease in public incentives. The aging of the vehicle fleet, which has reached historic highs of over 12 years, which is a positive driver.

And finally, the recent extension of the CO2 emission reduction goals for the horizon 2025, 2027 versus the terms originally established, which 2025. And this has provided the manufacturers with a little bit more time to adapt their product ranges, thereby avoiding sudden interruptions in their production programs as the fear existed. With all this and for the year 2025, we expect vehicle production in Europe to drop by 4%. In the medium-term, there is no change in the structural estimates and European productions are expected to remain basically flat, which together with utilization ratios of around 60% back the thesis that Europe is still pending capacity faced sales and a strong supplier consolidation wave.

We now focus the attention on North America, a market led by the U.S. economy and marked in this quarter by the deployment of its new trade policy. The North American market globally has suffered a production drop of 5% in the quarter, driven by a major contraction of 8% in the United States and 6% in Canada in spite of the good performance of Mexico with production that has continued to grow by 4% in this first quarter.

Among the main elements that have had a negative impact on the production of vehicles in North America, we would highlight, firstly, the continuation of the inventory reduction strategy of the Big 3 in Detroit, which has started in 2024. And as a figure, during the second half of 2024, U.S. inventories were at levels of around 55 days. And at the closing of the first quarter 2025, they have been at 43 days, 30% below the historical average.

Secondly, economic uncertainty resulting from the trade policies and geopolitical tensions, which have negatively affected the confidence of the consumer and the demand for vehicles. Together with this, we have the lack of visibility about the future evolution of the regulatory framework, which has made manufacturers adopt a more cautious, more prudent position regarding their production plans has contributed to slowing down the market. We also have to mention Stellantis very specifically for 2 reasons. On the one hand, the extended holiday period during the month of January in its American plants. And on the other hand, the beginning of the production of a new van with the brand Ram, which has brought about a drop in delivery points with an effect of around 82,000 units through the period. With all this and for 2025, a contraction of the North American market is expected of 9% compared to the previous year. And in the medium-term, the forecast point at a certain comeback in the North American market with a growth of 3% in 2026 and 5% in 2027.

We continue the geographic review with China, the biggest growing market among those in which we are present with an increase of 11% in vehicle production in the quarter, up to 7 million units and with the month of March that was particularly solid with almost 3 million vehicles produced in the month. This performance has been driven by the strength of domestic consumption in an environment with a very strong tax stimulus with the continuation of the scrapping incentive program, which has exceeded 1.3 million beneficiaries with subsidies of approximately EUR 1,300 per vehicle replaced. This growth in production has also been helped by the intense inventory replenishment in the quarter, closing the quarter with 46 days inventory in line with historical levels versus 2024, where we were around 40 days.

In the Chinese market, electrification continues to gain protagonism. In March, electrified vehicles represented 45% of total sales versus 33% in March the previous year with over 1.2 million electric vehicles manufactured and a year-on-year growth of 44%. Meanwhile, there is a high competition environment with more than 200 models that have already dropped their prices in the last 2 years, which reflects the intensity of the trade war between manufacturers.

On the other side, vehicle exports from China started the year with a slight drop, close to 1%, affected by the trade tensions with the United States and the increase in tariff barriers in various markets, including the European market. In spite of this, it is expected that the Chinese market in 2025 will grow by approximately 1% and maintain that medium-term moderate growth profile with around 1% per year, backed by its strong industrial position and its unquestionable leadership in electrification.

We now move on to Brazil, one of the markets with the best performance in the quarter with a growth of 8% in vehicle production, one of the highest in our geographies. A positive evolution that has been driven by the recovery in the domestic demand in an environment where unemployment remains below 7%, in line with the end of '24, below the 8% recorded in 2023 and the 9% recorded in 2022 and with a significant improvement in exports, which increased by more than 41% year-on-year in the first quarter on the back of the demand in Argentina.

The progressive improvement in access to loans has also helped in spite of the recent increase in interest rates, which have risen by 200 basis points up to 14.25%, supported by initiatives such as the new loan program deducted from the payroll available from the government available since March 2025. In parallel, vehicle sales have remained at a very good pace in this first quarter, reaching 500,000 units, which is 6% more than in the first quarter of last year. In a scenario where the Brazilian product mix continues clearly aimed at SUVs and pickups with a competitive environment that's very dynamic where we're seeing many new models being launched. We expect 2025 where Brazilian production will grow by 5% with the support of the strength of the domestic demand and improvement in exports and the entry of new actors. In the medium-term, forecast that point as a sustained growth of between 4% and 6% per year up to 2030, finally reaching pre-COVID levels in 2027.

We turn our attention to India, where the market has maintained a positive evolution at the beginning of the year with a growth of 1% in the production of passenger vehicles up to 1.5 million units. According to estimates, this will be 1 of the 2 quarters with the highest volume in 2025 together with the third quarter. We'll see. And not only the passenger vehicle, the rest of the segments have also shown a good performance, motorbikes with plus 6%, tractors, plus 12%, the production of heavy trade vehicles, which was practically flat, although with an improvement of 6% compared to the previous quarter, all good news. A dynamism that has been backed by a more favorable macro environment, a contained inflation, 3.5% in March and the first drop in interest rates in 5 years in India with reductions of 25 basis points, both in February and April down to the current 6%.

In parallel, the rural environment has shown signs of a good recovery, an increase in public spending dedicated to rural development and rural employment with an allocation of INR 2 billion, 25% more than last year and greater liquidity with an increase in farm revenues, which has led to a year-on-year growth of 30% in the sale of tractors in the month of March, for example. For this year, we expect a growth in passenger vehicle production of 5% with the support of this demand, new launchings and a controlled macroeconomic environment. In the midterm, very positive with forecasts that remain optimistic and annual growth rates of between 4% and 7% up to 2030 in all the segments in which we produce.

A summary of all of the above. Our global market has closed the first quarter with a 2% contraction. An even more significant drop is estimated of 4% in the second quarter. And for the second half of the year, another drop of around 2% is envisaged the reflection of an activity that is still very much contained on a global level. Overall, it is expected that our market at the closing in 2025 will have a drop of approximately 3% compared to 2024 in a year that again will be characterized by major discrepancies between regions, structural weakness in Europe and North America versus the dynamism and positivism of China, India and Brazil. In the midterm, world production point at a progressive recovery with estimated growth of 1% in '26, 3% in '27 and 1% in 2028.

We move on to the income statement, starting with sales, where once again, this quarter, we've exceeded EUR 1 billion in reported sales. Sales at the constant interest rates that have shrunk by 2%, somewhat less than the reported sales, which include the negative effect of the exchange rate. And this implies a quarter outperformance of almost 0.5 point versus our global market. If we analyze the detail in the geographies, we find a significant outperformance in Brazil, India and North America with an evolution that is slightly worse than the European market and the continuation of the underperformance in China.

Regarding operating results, we set the maximum levels in absolute value and the percentage of margins over sales and EBITDA, which exceeds EUR 192 million with an EBITDA margin over sales, which increases by 500 basis points up to 19%, an EBIT that exceeds EUR 146 million and an EBIT margin over sales that more than exceeds 14% with an expansion of 300 basis points compared to the first quarter of last year. And what I think is more important, the EBITDA and EBIT operating margins over sales have expanded in each and every one of our geographies and in all geographies with the exception of Europe, where we are at 18%, EBITDA margins of 19% or more have been reported, a solidity, a homogeneity in margins between the geographies that confirms the strength of the global figures. And again, this quarter, as our CEO said at the shareholders' meeting, we can see that our margins don't depend on where, but on the how of the CIE management model, which works just as solidly with different technologies and geographies. And we'll complete the review of the income statement mentioning the record net profit over EUR 94 million, which represents an extremely high return, more than 9% over sales.

If we go into the balance sheet, especially the cash flow, we could talk about the following key factors. The operating cash flow generated EUR 126 million, 4% more than in the first quarter 2024, completely in line with our trajectory towards the approximately EUR 500 million annual generation for this 2025 according to our guidance and operating cash flow generation that implies a conversion ratio of more than 6% over our guidance. We have continued to invest in growth and especially in growth markets with a strong potential like India, Brazil and Mexico. In this first quarter, we have continued with our greenfield in Northern Mexico, which mainly explains this total CapEx, which slightly exceeds 5% over sales. We have paid out more than EUR 60 million in dividends to CIE shareholders and minority shareholders, 3% more than last year.

And you can see how important shareholder remuneration is. We've dedicated more than 75% of our cash flow this first quarter to paying out dividends. And in spite of the dividend and in spite of the higher one-off growth CapEx because of the greenfield in Mexico, this quarter, we can once again reduce our net financial debt to less than EUR 1 billion for the first time since the acquisition cycle in 2019. We have the same net financial debt we had 6 years ago, but we are a company that is 30% bigger than them, and we have a constant net profit. Our current leverage of 1.3x net financial debt to EBITDA is at historical levels, very much below our comfort zone of 2x. And this allows us to have a significant buffer for future investments in corporate operations.

And in view of the positive evolution in the plan since it started in 2021 until it closes this first quarter and trusting in our forecast for the rest of the year, although we have to be cautious because of the existing uncertainty, but we can affirm that we will meet all our commitments for 2025.

We will close this presentation since the CEO has not been able to join us today because of the shareholders' meeting, but I would like to finish with this message where he highlights that we have started 2025 with the best first quarter in our history and a demanding environment where we stand out because of our capacity to generate value with operating margins that are leaders in the sector, thanks to our management with a robust operating cash flow and a minimum level of debt, which continues to strengthen our financial position to take on the future with confidence.

And with this, we'll move on to the Q&A. Thank you all very much.

U
Unknown Executive

Okay. Again, we have a lot of questions. We're going to be practical. We're putting them together. And we'll start with sales. A specific question on the underperformance in Europe. Is there any explanation as to what happened this quarter and the forecast for future quarters in Europe? And this links with the impact of the pass-through in general in sales and margins of the consolidated figures for CIE.

L
Lorea Aristizabal
executive

I'll start with the second question. It's easy to answer because there's nothing to be said. When there's a significant impact with the first to highlight it and in this case, there isn't.

And regarding the underperformance in Europe, I think if we look back, I'm going to say at the last, I don't know, 20 quarters to the pre-COVID era, we've seen that in some quarters and in some geographies, there's been an underperformance that doesn't set a trend or a reference. These are just one-off figures that I don't think we should attach any importance to. I think that we have to look at longer periods and not just look at a single figure. So as has occurred in the past in other quarters and in other geographies, one-off underperformance and not a trend. So we don't attach any significance to it.

U
Unknown Executive

And looking at the margins, would this 19% be the peak for the year? And what evolution do we expect for the rest of the year in margins, especially Europe and NAFTA? This is what they ask most about.

L
Lorea Aristizabal
executive

Well, it's quite easy to answer the question, bearing in mind that our guidance is 19% for the year. And I ended my presentation saying that we're going to meet those goals. So we can expect similar quarters, similar in margins to what we're seeing here to meet that approximately 19% that our guidance says. Some geographies may improve in some quarters and others may be a little worse. It's true that the European environment is a special challenge. And the North American environment is certainly uncertain. We use different adjectives for each area. But in India and Brazil, for example, bring very good news. So with small ups and downs here and there with a guidance of 19%, I think that everything is more or less set.

U
Unknown Executive

Moving on to the second quarter. We asked for some color on the trends in the second quarter by regions, especially after the tariffs issue.

L
Lorea Aristizabal
executive

Not especially. I don't know there will be any questions on tariffs that are. Well, we'll talk about tariffs when we look at the details of the tariffs. But right now, with the forecast we currently have, I would say that we have a second quarter that will be similar to the first or at least structurally similar to the first. No deviations in margins or a terrible deviation in sales. We don't see anything dramatic right now, something similar to the first quarter.

Having said this, in view of the volatility and the situation of uncertainty in some of the markets in 1.5 months, I may be saying something else. But I think there will be a certain continuity in the second quarter. But if we're going to talk about tariffs, I won't say anything else on that for the time being.

U
Unknown Executive

It's related to this question. And since an expected drop in volume is expected in the coming months, some measures or restructuring has already been carried out? Or do we expect to do it in the future, some form of restructuring in the short-term?

L
Lorea Aristizabal
executive

Management restructuring and all kind of measures are taken every day at all CIE plants. But you don't see a major restructuring plan with EUR 300 million impact or whatever. But every day in the various geographies at the various CIE plants, there are small adjustments, sizings, et cetera, et cetera. That's part of day-to-day management. And therefore, the answer is that, we're not waiting to do anything. We do it every day. That's part of the management process and the management model that Jesus Maria highlighted today at the shareholders' meeting.

U
Unknown Executive

Okay. I move on. Well, before getting on to the subject, the tariffs without a doubt, we move on to some corporate development issues and group the questions together again. Starting with Roof Systems India. We have 3 or 4 questions related to whether there's any news on the potential integration of the Roof business at our Indian subsidiary.

L
Lorea Aristizabal
executive

I'm going to answer with a no.

U
Unknown Executive

Any news?

L
Lorea Aristizabal
executive

No, there's no news. This question, if I remember correctly, was asked 2 months ago, exactly 2 months ago at the conference call for 2024 at the end of February, where Jesus Maria, our CEO gave an answer, and there has been no change regarding this.

U
Unknown Executive

And continuing, well, they ask about M&A in general and M&A India. But perhaps let's go with M&A India, where there are 2 sub-subjects. Do we expect to increase our stake in CIE India up to 75%, for example, to reduce minorities? That's one question.

And the other one would be, there have been several transactions in India at multiples of 10x EBITDA. Why aren't we following that acquisition trend in the country?

L
Lorea Aristizabal
executive

Well, the purchase of minority stakes is always an option when we find the suitable value windows. We've done it in the past and why not think that we can do it in the future. It's one of the potential uses for capital allocation we've done in recent years. Perhaps right now is not the time, but it could be in the future.

And regarding M&A in India, we are working on it. It's not so easy for us to find the kind of quality company that we feel should join the CIE Group below 10x. But that doesn't mean we're not working on it. And I hope we'll soon have news to announce about India.

U
Unknown Executive

And can we give an update on the situation of M&A in general in the rest of the geographies, technologies, an update of where we want to go or are going?

L
Lorea Aristizabal
executive

Well, right now, I would say that in recent months, we've had a shower of several potential targets, especially in Europe that we're politely turning down because we don't find it a way of increasing our capacity in a significant way in a market that's structurally broken, like the European market, with problems of overcapacity, regulation and with an uncertain future. So we're limiting our expansion there. Outside of that, we are analyzing inorganic growth in markets like India and Brazil. Also in Mexico, but in Mexico, we have perhaps reorientated that effort towards our greenfield in the north. And that's where we are.

And it's also true that we're at a very early prospective phase. Jesus Maria mentioned it in 2024, but I think it's interesting to remind it that we're at an early prospective phase for new markets in Southeast Asia, and I have no idea whether anything will come of it or not. But it's true that these are interesting markets that will provide part of the growth in the coming years, the global market, and we're making an analysis of those markets and the possibility of finding something there with which to grow.

U
Unknown Executive

Another question related to corporate development, let's say, has just come in. When with the self takeover bid will be launched?

L
Lorea Aristizabal
executive

It was approved at the shareholders' meeting and the next landmark is approval by the CNMV. We would expect it to be in the coming weeks, but it will depend more on the CNMV than on us. From there on, once the CNMV approves it and we don't expect any problems, it would be launched. I don't know, if it's approved at the end of May, we would be talking about the month of June, and we can say before summer.

U
Unknown Executive

We're asked an update or there's a question on how CIE is adapting to the Chinese players, both in China and outside China for those changes in market share, both in China and in other markets?

L
Lorea Aristizabal
executive

Well, it's true that the sales of Chinese vehicles in the world have bigger and bigger figures every day, but not so much the world production of Chinese manufacturers outside China. It's true that there are plants that are about to produce like Brazil or Hungary or Turkey, but we're still not talking about large production volumes outside China. So the only new thing we can talk about are commercial contracts. And there, we continue to talk to them, both with Barcelona with Ebro and BYD in Brazil or with BYD in Europe, but I'm afraid that there's nothing I can say about.

U
Unknown Executive

Well, I was putting the Trump questions together, and I apologize in advance if I leave anything out. Let's start with how do the Trump tariffs affect our production in Mexico?

L
Lorea Aristizabal
executive

Well, what a surprise, this question. Let's start with Mexico. If we talk about tariffs in Mexico, I think that the most important thing is to remind everyone that we produce and serve our customers in Mexico because of the logistic agreements we have with our customers, we don't cross the border. And this is very important because this means that we don't have any direct effect from the tariffs now or in the future. There may be indirect effects or not, but there is no direct effect because we don't have the logistics responsibility of crossing the border.

I think that if we have to talk about the Mexico tariffs, as stated in the question, it's important to update what the status is because in the last month, there have been different news. There was a decree in March, then another one in April and the situation has changed somewhat. Three important points, I think, to remember what the situation is today. On the one hand, with the initial decree or executive order in March, all the components imported into the United States from any country, including Mexico, or Mexico and Canada would pay a tariff from May 3. But with the new decree of April 29, the new point is that, the components that are imported from Mexico and Canada to the United States do not pay a tariff because they considered to be under the free trade agreement.

The components produced in Mexico and which is taken to our customer in the United States come under T-MEC. So there's no tariff for our customers. We're exactly the same as we were in the last 5 years. Since 2020, the T-MEC treaty has been in effect and our components in Mexico have not lost competitiveness with the executive order of April 29. The other novelty in April was that with the March order, cars that were assembled in the U.S. paid a tariff for the components weren't from T-MEC. With the new April executive order, the novelty is that, the manufacturers that assemble cars in the U.S. can now apply for a reimbursement of part of those tariffs. The tariffs that they pay for the components that aren't T-MEC. They can apply for a reimbursement of up to 3.75% of the value up to the vehicle for 1 year and 2% and 0% after the third year.

And what is this new thing about? It's a transient period to give manufacturers time to adapt their production systems to look for components in North America. In other words, the localization of more components, which are currently produced outside North America. And this is a great opportunity for CIE when everybody is only seeing the risk of the tariffs. I think it's an enormous opportunity to pick up business through that localization.

And the third part of the new thing about the executive order, which is also interesting. The tariffs don't overlap, and they're applied retrospectively allowing for the reimbursement of the tariff that had already been paid. So I'd like to remind you that the 90-day moratorium is only for reciprocal tariffs and the tariff of 25% for aluminum and the 25% tariff for imported vehicles from all countries, including Mexico and Brazil is currently in force. All vehicles pay a 25% tariff since April 3.

I don't think I've left anything out that has to do with Mexico.

U
Unknown Executive

Yes, there's another question from the same angle, but how would those tariffs affect our production in the United States on the other side of the border?

L
Lorea Aristizabal
executive

Well, from the point of view of an American plant, to start with the positive side, we all see the opportunity it means to locate new nonT-MEC components, as I mentioned earlier. And secondly, the opportunity of additional volumes that Trump is constantly referring to new production volumes. And I believe that the other angle would be the potential risk of importing material from abroad that our plants produce. But we have to confirm that we're not concerned. There's nothing significant. And the little there is, is already being handled with the customer to find a solution. And it has to be said, it's realistic to say that the best solution is not only always going to be localization in the United States. Sometimes there's no viable alternative in the United States. And sometimes it's even cheaper to bring it from abroad with the tariff. But in any case, it will be with the customer that we find the best solution for them. Nothing significant there regarding risk and opportunities because of the localization of components and the additional volumes.

U
Unknown Executive

And another angle because of course there are many corners to this, exports to the U.S. from other countries, how would that affect us? Sales from other countries in the world to the United States, CIE sales?

L
Lorea Aristizabal
executive

Well, the general CIE philosophy is local production for a local supplier and with a local value chain. So I can answer the question with that general philosophy that tells us that there are very few exceptions to that. Are there some one-offs? There are. I don't know, EUR 20 million in Metalcastello in Italy, for example, that's taken to the United States, a couple of dozen million in India taken to the United States, some very one-off projects. But we're not talking about anything significant that has an impact on the global picture of CIE. It will barely be 1% of total CIE sales. So I'll answer by saying that these are very one-off projects that we'll have to deal with on a case-by-case basis for the customer. And as I said earlier, the best solution isn't always going to be localization in the United States. But in any case, to answer the question on exports from other countries to the United States, it tends towards 0.

U
Unknown Executive

Since this is a very dynamic situation, what do we think is going to happen in the future and how we anticipate things? And this is related to possible production changes from China to India because of the tariffs.

L
Lorea Aristizabal
executive

Well, the answer to that is, yes, we're already looking. And I think that the release of our Indian subsidiary is something that they commented on very positively, how we're having common discussions with customers with possible transfers from China to India and which could be an important driver for increase in Indian production.

Having said this, what's going to happen? Crystal ball, crystal ball because in March, we had an executive order that had tariffs on 25% for imported cars and 25% for all components, then the April order, which has softened everything a little bit.

What's the feeling? I think that our feeling and our hope is that, the downscaling has already started. We've already seen the worst, and we're probably downscaling gradually little by little. And now it's been free trade in components of Mexico and Canada, and there will probably be more news perhaps on the import of vehicles from Mexico and Canada or aluminum and steel, we'll see. I think that there's a fact. We've read millions of reports about it and the millions of reports coincide on one thing. If all this continued, it would mean that vehicles in the U.S. would increase their price by more than $5,000. An average U.S. car could go from $48,000 to over $55,000. That's impossible. This is something that can't happen because the U.S. consumer won't allow it.

So with that certainty of that unacceptable increase in price, I think that the new order in April has softened things a little bit. And there have been many conversations between Trump and the Big 3 in Detroit. I don't know whether you've read the very kind words that the President of Stellantis, Ford and General Motors said about Trump. But while they use kind words and the tariffs are less harsh in their releases in the first quarter, they've had to withdraw the guidance for 2025 and provision up to $10 billion because of the tariff impacts. The level of uncertainty is gigantic. And we've seen the Big 3 in Detroit who, as I said, have withdrawn their guidance for 2025. Others like Volkswagen have decided to publish the first quarter with a disclaimer saying that in view of the uncertainty and volatility, they can't quantify the tariff risk. Others like Tesla have decided to postpone the guidance for 2025 to the second half. And then we really curious things. BMW today has published something saying that in their figures, they believe that tariffs will disappear as of July 2025.

So crystal balls. And the question was, how do you see things? Well, people see things differently. And if our manufacturers see things differently, well, you can imagine that we can't make and don't need to take decisions on changes in our localization or production until our customers have information and have made their own decisions.

U
Unknown Executive

A different subject. Considering how the automotive industry is evolving, are we planning to get involved in other segments or industries such as aerospace and defense?

L
Lorea Aristizabal
executive

I assume that question comes from the context of the European rearmament Plan, the Spanish Ministry of Industry increasing the Spanish defense budget up to 2%, et cetera. Yes, we've had calls from the Spanish Ministry of Industry asking whether we would be willing to cooperate. There's been a very generic answer saying that if there are specific issues, they can be analyzed. In the end, producing certain components for a passenger vehicle or producing that same component or similar component for a military truck is very similar. And we've done it in the past, and we do it in some plants, for example, at Metalcastello in Italy. So I'm not going to say no.

U
Unknown Executive

Okay. A question on how to read that most OEMs are reducing their guidance while most suppliers are maintaining them?

L
Lorea Aristizabal
executive

OEMs going down. Well, I think that the reason is, it's not that the suppliers are more arrogant and believe that should we maintain our guidance. I think that suppliers are a second derivative or the first derivative, which are the manufacturers. Only when our customers explain in a very concrete way what their actions are going to be, will we be able to make decisions about it and analyze the impact of those decisions. I think that the publications on the first results we've seen from manufacturers and suppliers run along those lines. All the manufacturers have heard, have spoken about the same thing, that they're exploring different measures. And they mentioned 3, basically, a general analysis of or the relocalization of production, a certain increase in vehicle prices or an analysis of a certain increase in vehicle prices in the U.S. and analysis in working with suppliers to see how to localize more of the content in North America. And as I said, I think that the suppliers are the second derivative of that.

U
Unknown Executive

With the results in Q1, meeting all the goals in the strategic plan, what is the next challenge?

L
Lorea Aristizabal
executive

Well, the next challenge will come with the next strategic plan, and we're not here to talk about that today. We're here to talk about the first quarter to remind everyone that we are still firmly convinced that in spite of the context, we can meet the guidance for 2025. And the next step and the next challenge will come once that we have proved to you that we have achieved it.

U
Unknown Executive

Well, there are no more questions.

L
Lorea Aristizabal
executive

Oh, great. Well, thank you all very much for your attention. And here, we all are at your disposal.

[Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]

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