Iveco Group NV

MIL:IVG

Q4-2025 Earnings Call

[Operator]

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to today's Iveco Group 2025 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Results Conference Call and Webcast. We would like to remind you that today's conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions]

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Federico Donati, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

[Federico Donati, executive]

Thank you, Razia. Good morning, everyone. I would like to welcome you to this webcast and conference call for Iveco Group fourth quarter and full year financial results for the period ending 31st December 2025.

This call is being broadcast live on our website and is copyrighted by Iveco Group. I'm sure you appreciate that any other use, recording or transmission of any portion of this broadcast without the consent of Iveco Group is not allowed.

Hosting today's call are Iveco Group CEO, Olof Persson; and our CFO, Anna Tanganelli. Please note that any forward-looking statements we make during today's call are subject to the risks and uncertainties mentioned in the safe harbor statement included in the presentation material.

Additional information relating to factors that could cause actual results to differ from forecast and expectation is contained in the company's most recent annual report as well as other recent reports and filings with the authorities in the Netherlands and Italy.

The company presentation may include certain non-IFRS financial measures. Additional information, including reconciliation to the most directly comparable IFRS financial measure is included in the presentation material.

Furthermore, on the 30th of July 2025, Iveco Group announced the signing of a definitive agreement to sell its Defence business, IDV and ASTRA brands to Leonardo S.p.A. The transaction is expected to be complete no later than the 31st March of 2026, subject to customary regulatory approvals and carve-out completion.

In accordance with IFRS 5, noncurrent assets held for sale and discontinued operation as the sale became highly probable in July, the Defence business meets the criteria to be classified as a disposal group held for sale.

It also meets the criteria to be classified as discontinued operations. In accordance with applicable accounting standards, the figures in the income statement and the statement of cash flows for 2024 comparative periods have been recast consistently.

Additionally, in 2024, the Firefighting business was classified as discontinued operations. Its sales was complete on the 3rd of January 2025. As a consequence, 2025 and 2024 financial data shown in this presentation refer to continuing operations only, unless otherwise stated.

Finally, please note that subject to the applicable disclosure requirements pending the publication of the final offer document, we will not comment on the tender offer by Tata Motors.

As per the joint press release on the 3rd of July announcing the entering into the merger agreement and the press release by Tata on the 19th of August, announcing the filing of the document with CONSOB, anyone interested is invited to refer to the offer or notice published on the 3rd of July 2025, which indicates the legal basis, rationale, condition, terms and key elements of the tender offer.

All the aforementioned materials and announcements are available on Iveco Group corporate website, where any additional relevant information will be published in due time.

We'll not comment on the sale of the Defence business to Leonardo either. The rationale, terms and condition of the sale with the details as currently available were disclosed on the 30th of July. As announced, the transaction is expected to be completed in Q1 2026, subject to customary regulatory approvals and carve-out completion.

I confirm the activities to this end are going and on track. Consistent with the agreement reached with Tata, Iveco Group will distribute the net proceeds of the transaction, based on the enterprise value agreed with the purchaser via an extraordinary dividend estimated at EUR 5.5 to EUR 6 per common share to be paid out to the company shareholders before the tender offer is settled.

With those points covered, I'd like to turn things over to our CEO, Olof.

[Olof Persson, executive]

Thank you very much, Federico. And let me add my own welcome to everyone joining our call today. And I'll start with Slide 3, outlining the main highlights from our full year performance, excluding Defence.

2025 for Iveco Group was a challenging year, with declining market in Europe for both light-duty trucks and heavy-duty trucks. And in addition, we had challenges in ramping up our bus deliveries in the later part of the year.

These factors affected the volumes and profitability of both our truck and bus units. They also impacted our full-year free cash flow performance relative to our most recently updated financial guidance.

Our teams moved quickly to tighten inventory levels, manage costs diligently and remained on course to deliver our multiyear efficiency program, which was accelerated in 2025 and again in the current year.

We concentrated on balancing pricing with market share in our Truck business unit and carefully managing channel inventory, lowering it substantially in Europe to counterbalance higher dealer inventory in South America.

We also protected our leadership position in the LCV Chassis Cab subsegment and maintained strict pricing discipline in Medium & Heavy in support of the final phase of the introduction of our model year 2024 across European countries.

I'd like to break down our performance a little bit by business unit. So in Truck, industry demand in Europe remained particularly low throughout the year across ranges, particularly in the Chassis Cab subsegment, impacting profitability that we partially offset with strict cost control measures.

European deliveries for the full year dropped year-over-year, especially in light commercial vehicles, which were down 23% versus last year.

At the end, 2025 worldwide Truck book-to-bill came in just slightly below 1.0, up 27 basis points compared to last year.

In our Bus business unit, profitability improvements were tempered by additional costs associated with the delay in the production ramp-up in our Annonay plant in France and supply delays.

Consequently, the free cash flow generation was negatively impacted by EUR 200 million. Unfinished products that remained in our inventory at the end of the year will be deployed in 2026.

Despite these constraints, our order book in Bus remains strong, providing us with clear long-term visibility through full year of 2026.

In Powertrain, the progressive sign of recovery in third-party engine volumes that started in Q3 2025 helped support profitability improvements in the second half of 2025, along with a positive mix and pricing. Powertrain also continued diligent cost control and operational efficiency.

Moving now to financial highlights for the full year. Consolidated net revenues were EUR 13.4 billion at the end of 2025, down 7% compared to previous year. Consolidated adjusted EBIT margin at 4.8%, was down from 6.2% last year, and Industrial Activities net revenues stood at EUR 13.1 billion, down 17% (sic) [ 7% ] versus last year and slightly below the updated guidance provided at the beginning of November, which excluded Defence.

Industrial Activities adjusted EBIT was also slightly below the updated guidance, closing the year at EUR 528 million compared to EUR 761 million last year.

Finally, free cash flow was negative EUR 109 million for continuing operations only. The deviations compared to guidance are mainly explained by the delay in production ramp-up of buses.

For reference only, we have also included the unaudited full year 2025 consolidated financial results, including discontinued operations.

As you can see, if we exclude the one-off higher inventory level in Bus, free cash flow would have been positive EUR 260 million at consolidated level and positive EUR 91 million for continuing operations.

Going forward, we remain focused on quality and operations, maintaining tight control on production levels and inventory management and continuing to deliver the goals of our efficiency program.

Moving then to Slide 4 and outlining our indicative time line for the first half of 2026, with the sale of our Defence business and the tender offer for Iveco Group progressing in parallel.

Regulatory filings for both transactions, including those required by the European Union are currently underway and subject to final approvals.

As you've probably already seen from the press release issued on the 23rd of January, the transactions are progressing as planned and the expected dividend for the Defence separation remains at between EUR 5.5 and EUR 6 per share.

Payment is currently anticipated in April 2026 after contractual closing adjustments are finalized, in line with the standard ex-dividend date of the 20th of April of the Italian Stock Exchange calendar.

Furthermore, the extraordinary general meetings for Defence and the Tata Motors tender offer are expected to be held in the second half of March and early May 2026, respectively.

As announced in July, if the sales to Leonardo S.p.A. is not completed prior to or on the 31st of March 2026, the company is taking all actions necessary to complete the spinoff of the Defence business through a statutory demerger, which would transfer the business into a newly incorporated company under Dutch law.

The common and special voting share of this new company would be proportionally allotted to those Iveco Group shareholders existing at the time of the demerger, with common shares listed and traded at Euronext Milan.

The Defence Extraordinary General Meeting will be asked to vote on demerger proposal as a precautionary measure as per our press release issued yesterday.

With these important developments covered, let me now discuss the performance of our business and industry dynamics during the fourth quarter.

Moving on to Slide 6 and the Truck segment. Throughout the last quarter, we maintained tight control on both inventory levels and pricing discipline, as mentioned earlier.

Our channel inventory in Europe, both in LCV and Medium and Heavy Trucks ended the year at a healthy level, giving us a solid platform for 2026.

In the fourth quarter, European industry volumes decreased by 12% year-over-year in light commercial vehicles with the Professional Chassis Cab segment down 14%. This drop was partly offset by a more dynamic Caravan subsegment, where Iveco has only limited exposure.

In Medium and Heavy Trucks, European industry was slightly up at 2% in the quarter. Our market share reached 7.9%, up 80 basis points versus the same period last year with Heavy Trucks accounting for 7%, up 60 basis points compared to last year.

We maintained pricing discipline throughout the quarter as we entered into the final phase of introducing our Model Year 2024 across the remaining European countries.

In an environment that continues to present challenges, we were able to preserve pricing integrity and manage inventory effectively, reflecting both the strengths of our commercial execution and the strategic clarity of our Truck business.

On Slide 7, our worldwide truck book-to-bill ratio reached 0.91 at the end of the quarter, registering a 22 basis improvement year-over-year.

In light commercial vehicles, our European order intake rose by a very healthy 58% compared to Q4 2024 with a book-to-bill ratio at 0.9.

This increase is a welcome sign of recovery, coming on the heels of a prolonged period of production coverage below last year's level. Also, January's order intake confirms such trends with a solid 15% up year-over-year and signs of recovery across retail, key accounts and international key accounts.

That said, order intake was down 16% in South America versus last year, but this came after 3 consecutive quarters of solid order increases. The book-to-bill ratio in South America stood at 1.03 at the end of the fourth quarter 2025.

In Medium and Heavy Trucks, our European order intake was up 14% year-over-year with a book-to-bill ratio of 1. South America saw a pronounced contraction of 48% with a book-to-bill ratio of 0.81. The backlog in Europe remained stable at 8 weeks of production coverage in Heavy and 12 weeks in Medium.

Then moving on to Slide #9 with Bus industry volumes and market shares. During the quarter, Iveco Bus continued to command a strong competitive position across Europe.

In the Intercity segment, our leadership was confirmed with a 58.2% market share in Q4 2025, representing a 9 percentage point increase year-over-year, supported by the first deliveries of our Crossway normal flow electric buses, which began in December.

In the European city bus segment, our market share stood at 11% in Q4, a figure penalized by unfinished products and the related delay in deliveries. In 2026, we will deploy the deliveries that was not completed at year-end.

Despite the negative impact on our city bus market share, the overall Iveco Bus maintained its consolidated #2 position in the European market, registering a 22% market share in the fourth quarter.

Moving on to Slide 10. In Q4 2025, our Bus order intake was up 28% due to good performance in the second half of the year in South America and AMEA, which led to a worldwide full year 2025 order intake that came in 13% higher year-over-year.

Deliveries rose 1% on a worldwide basis compared to Q4 2024 on the back of the solid performance in the rest of the world, partially compensated by lower deliveries in South America and the European deliveries were up 3% year-over-year. The book-to-bill ratio stood at 1.11 at the quarter end and 1.09 on a full year basis.

Summing up, we have a solid plan to deliver the delayed buses in 2026 and maintain good long-term visibility for intercity and city bus with coverage extending through the full year of 2026.

Moving then on, on Slide 12 and looking at the Powertrain business unit. Engine volumes were up almost 11% versus Q4 2024, with increasingly positive signs of recovery in third-party customer, a process that began in Q3 2025 and expected to continue in 2026, although at a slower pace compared to the fourth quarter.

During Q4, Powertrain strengthened its #1 position in the European agriculture sector, supplying N67 engines for the new Deutz-Fahr 8 series Tractor.

Operational discipline remains central to our business strategy. Powertrain continues to manage costs very carefully and implement the ongoing efficiency program. These efforts are helping to protect margins and ensure sustainable delivery as the volumes recover.

Another important demonstration of Powertrain's technology leadership came at the Dakar 2026, an extreme test of speed, navigation and durability across the Arabian Desert. After 2 grueling weeks, FPT achieved an historic one-two podium, which is Cursor 13 engine in the Truck category. The performance and reliability of our engines is what it takes to succeed in the world's toughest off-road race.

Looking into Slide 14. And on my final opening remarks slide looks at our electric vehicle portfolio, where year-to-date delivery volumes continue to grow across the business unit despite softened market demand.

As I said in our previous earnings call, this clearly shows the competitiveness of our product lineup and our unique positioning in the truck where Iveco is the only truck manufacturer to offer a complete fully electrical product line-up ranging from 2.5 up to plus 16 tonnes.

Competitiveness at this level will be strengthened even more by the initial distribution of the Iveco eSuperJolly in the second quarter of this year and the Iveco eJolly in June. These new all-electric LCVs are being produced through a partnership with Stellantis Pro One.

With that, I finish my opening remarks, and I will now hand the call over to Anna.

[Anna Tanganelli, executive]

Thank you, Olof. Let's now take a look at the highlights of our full year 2025 financial results on Slide 16. Again, all figures provided in the presentation refer to continuing operations only, excluding Defence, if not otherwise stated.

Full year 2025 closed with EUR 13.4 billion in consolidated net revenues and EUR 13.1 billion in net revenues of industrial activities, contracting 6.9% and 6.6%, respectively, on a year-over-year basis, mainly due to lower volumes in Europe for Truck and Powertrain and the negative FX translation effect, primarily in Brazil and Turkey.

Group adjusted EBIT closed at EUR 645 million with a 4.8% margin and adjusted EBIT of Industrial Activities reached EUR 528 million with a 4% margin. Both contracted by 140 basis points versus full year 2024.

Net financial expenses were EUR 222 million in the year compared to EUR 192 million in 2024, which had been positively impacted by last year's Argentinian hyperinflation accounting methodology.

Reported income tax expenses totaled EUR 82 million with an adjusted effective tax rate of 26%. This resulted in an adjusted net income for continuing operations of EUR 312 million, down EUR 208 million versus last year and with an adjusted diluted EPS for continuing operations of EUR 1.16.

Moving to our free cash flow performance. 2025 closed with EUR 109 million cash flow absorption, down almost EUR 150 million versus prior year if we exclude the negative EUR 200 million one-off effect related to the exceptionally high inventory levels within our Bus division at year-end. I will provide obviously further details on this later in the presentation.

Available liquidity closed solidly at EUR 4.7 billion on the 31st of December 2025 with EUR 1.9 billion of undrawn committed facilities.

Let's now focus on net revenues of Industrial Activities on Slide 17. As you can see from the chart on the right-hand side of this slide, all regions contracted compared to prior year, excluding South America, which was broadly flat versus 2024.

Looking at our net revenues evolution by business unit, Bus was up double digit versus prior year at plus 15%, reaching EUR 2.9 billion, thanks to higher volumes and despite lower-than-forecasted deliveries in the fourth quarter.

Truck net revenues were EUR 8.9 billion, down 11% versus last year as a result of lower deliveries in light-duty trucks due to the continuously challenging Chassis Cab subsegment evolution in Europe and lower heavy-duty truck deliveries in Brazil in the fourth quarter in order to start realigning channel inventory levels.

Additionally, the Truck top line was negatively affected by an adverse year-over-year foreign exchange rate trend, mainly in Brazil and in Turkey.

Powertrain net revenues were down 6% versus previous year at EUR 3.3 billion due to lower volumes in the first half of the year, only partially compensated by a solid recovery in the second half. Sales to external customers accounted for 47% in 2025, in line with prior year.

Turning to Slide 18. Let me briefly comment on the main drivers underlying the year-over-year performance in our adjusted EBIT margin of Industrial Activities.

Volume and mix contributed negatively for EUR 244 million in the period, mainly due to lower trucks, especially LCV and Powertrain volumes in Europe. Net pricing also contributed negatively during the year for EUR 20 million, mainly due to normalization of pricing in light-duty trucks.

Production costs were negative EUR 33 million year-over-year, mainly driven by ramp-up costs at our Annonay plant in Bus, partially offset by solid positive performance in Powertrain.

Finally, the year-over-year improvement in SG&A costs, totaling EUR 48 million in the year is a result of the acceleration of the efficiency actions announced and launched at the beginning of 2025.

Let's now take a look at the adjusted EBIT margin performance for each industrial business unit on Slide 19. Truck posted a 3.7% adjusted EBIT margin in the year, down 190 basis points compared to 2024 as a result of lower volumes predominantly in Europe and the negative mix linked to the continuously challenging Chassis Cab subsegment evolution in the region.

The lower year-over-year fixed cost absorption resulting from contracted production levels was only partially compensated by all the cost containment actions implemented throughout the year.

2025 adjusted EBIT margin of our Bus business unit closed at 4.9%, down 60 basis points versus prior year with higher volumes and positive price realization, offset by the higher ramp-up costs at our Annonay plant.

Finally, Powertrain adjusted EBIT margin closed at 6.7% in the year, thanks to continued and diligent cost control, operational efficiencies as well as an increase in engine volumes in the second half of the year.

Let's now have a look at the performance of our Financial Services business unit during the year on Slide 20. 2025 adjusted EBIT closed at EUR 170 million with a managed portfolio, including unconsolidated JVs of EUR 8.1 billion at the end of the period, of which retail accounted for 42% and wholesale 58%. This figure is down EUR 242 million compared to the 31st of December 2024 as a result of lower Industrial Activities sales volumes.

Stock of receivables past due by more than 30 days as a percentage of the overall on-book portfolio was at 1.9%, in line with last year. Return on assets remained solid at 1.9%.

Let's now move to our free cash flow and net industrial cash evolution on Slide 21. As said, 2025 free cash flow closed with an absorption of EUR 109 million. Adjusted for the one-off negative impact of our Bus business unit exceptional inventory levels at year-end, 2025 free cash flow would have been positive at EUR 90 million.

We already commented on our profitability, on our financial charges and on the taxes performance in the year. So let's move to working capital.

Working capital contributed positively for EUR 41 million in 2025, EUR 169 million improvement versus previous year, thanks to a strong inventory reduction in our Truck business unit in Europe, only partially countered by higher inventory levels in Bus.

The negative year-over-year change in provisions was mainly driven by lower sales volumes in our Truck business unit, which resulted in reduced commercial and warranty provisions.

Investments totaled EUR 789 million in 2025, down EUR 118 million versus last year and in line with the already mentioned acceleration of our efficiency program and the related reprioritization of some of our less strategic investments.

The last point I would like to mention here is that, as you can see from the chart at the bottom end of the slide, despite the EUR 200 million negative one-off effect, Q4 2025 cash flow performance was substantial at above EUR 1.1 billion and EUR 70 million better than last year.

Moving now to Slide 22. As of the 31st of December 2025, our available liquidity for continuing operations stood solidly at EUR 4.7 billion, with almost EUR 3 billion in cash and cash equivalents and EUR 1.9 billion of undrawn committed facilities.

Looking at our debt maturity profile, the majority of our debt will mature from 2027 onwards and our cash and cash equivalent levels continue to more than cover all the cash maturities foreseen for the coming years.

Moving now to my last slide for today, Slide 24. Let's take a look at the performance of our discontinued operations, i.e., our Defence business unit. 2025 Defence net revenues reached EUR 1.4 billion, up 19.1% compared to prior year, thanks to higher volumes and the positive mix.

Adjusted EBIT was EUR 156 million, compared to EUR 91 million in 2024, driven by higher volumes, a positive mix and production efficiencies.

Adjusted EBIT margin was 11.4%, up 350 basis points compared to prior year. The Defence funded order book reached EUR 5.7 billion at December end, up close to EUR 400 million from the end of September 2025.

Thank you. I will now turn the call back to Olof for his final remarks.

[Olof Persson, executive]

Thank you very much, Anna. And I'll end this presentation by providing some takeaway messages based on what you have heard today. But before I do that, I'd like to inform you that pending the ongoing extraordinary transactions, we will not provide any financial guidance for 2026.

That said, on Slide 26, you can see a preliminary industrial outlook for this year. So here are my takeaway messages from today's call.

First, our fourth quarter free cash flow performance was impacted by delays in production ramp-up experienced at our Annonay plant. And there is where we produce our entire city bus range.

These constraints were amplified by supply delays in delivering material, circumstances that were not foreseen when we provided updated guidance in November last year. As a result, a number of products remained unfinished and undelivered at the year-end, resulting in a one-off negative cash flow impact of EUR 200 million.

We have, as I said before, a solid plan to deliver delayed buses in 2026 and thereby recovering the negative impact. And additionally, the cost of the ramp-up at the facility we progressively reduced during H1 2026.

Second, in Q4, European truck order intake was solid, especially in LCV, where weeks of production already sold remained stable at 7 weeks and order intake in January continued to be up double digit, compared to the same period last year.

We maintained diligent inventory management throughout the year, including the last quarter, which enabled us to enter 2026 with a healthy channel inventory level in Europe, that is in line with the preliminary industry demand forecast.

In heavy-duty trucks, we continue to maintain strict pricing discipline in support of our model year 2024, ensuring that the quality, performance and full potential of the product is realized.

In Powertrain, new third-party customer contracts with leading brands such as Deutz underscore our #1 leadership position in the European agriculture market. Engine deliveries to third-party customers are expected to continue at pace in 2026, although slightly slower compared to Q4 2025.

Third, in Europe, our preliminary Truck industry outlook, both for LCV and Medium and Heavy will be flat or slightly up versus full year 2025.

In South America, our preliminary expectations for the year is characterized by uncertain demand, resulting in an industry down 10% versus the previous year in both LCV and Medium and Heavy.

Order intake in South America, predominantly in Brazil in the fourth quarter of 2025 validated this assumption, declining by double digits year-over-year. This was mainly driven by market slowdown and company effort to lower dealer inventory.

Fourth, we will continue to maintain disciplined cost control and operational efficiency across all business units and keep accelerating our efficiency program as planned to deliver additional full year OpEx savings.

Finally, as I mentioned in my opening remarks, we are on track to complete the sale of our Defence business to Leonardo as per our original communication. The tender offer by Tata is also expected to be completed within the first half of 2026 as announced.

In conclusion, we have just closed a very challenging year, both in terms of market demand for our Truck business unit and the need to handle delays in the production ramp-up at our Annonay plant.

Having said that, I'm really proud of how the team of the Iveco Group performed and adapted to respond to the challenges, while also progressing our 2 extraordinary transactions in line with the time lines previously communicated.

I look ahead with confidence as we remain focused on quality, operational execution and acceleration of our efficiency program. Across all business units, we remain committed to delivering long-term value for our stakeholders.

And with that, thank you so much, and I will now hand it back to Federico.

[Federico Donati, executive]

That concludes our prepared remarks. I've been informed that no one has registered to make any questions. So I would wish you a good day and thank you for your participation. Thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you. That will conclude today's conference call. Thank you all for participating. Ladies and gentlemen, you may now disconnect.