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Alliance Resource Partners LP
NASDAQ:ARLP

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Alliance Resource Partners LP Logo
Alliance Resource Partners LP
NASDAQ:ARLP
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Price: 20.05 USD -0.69%
Updated: Mar 29, 2024

Intrinsic Value

Alliance Resource Partners LP is a natural resource company, which produces and markets coal to United States utilities and industrial users. [ Read More ]

The intrinsic value of one ARLP stock under the Base Case scenario is 30.9 USD. Compared to the current market price of 20.05 USD, Alliance Resource Partners LP is Undervalued by 35%.

Key Points:
ARLP Intrinsic Value
Base Case
30.9 USD
Undervaluation 35%
Intrinsic Value
Price
Worst Case
Base Case
Best Case

Valuation Backtest
Alliance Resource Partners LP

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Fundamental Analysis

Alliance Resource Delivers Strong Performance
2023-Q4 Earnings Call

Alliance Resource Delivers Strong Performance

In a challenging economic climate, Alliance Resource Partners achieved record full-year revenues of $2.6 billion, up from $2.4 billion in 2022. Net income also rose to $630.1 million, with earnings per unit growing nearly 10% to $4.81. However, the fourth quarter saw a revenue decline to $625.4 million, a 10.7% decrease in coal sales price, and a 7.5% decrease in coal sales volume compared to the previous year. These declines were due to softer market demand, lower commodity prices, and operational issues in Appalachia. Despite this, the company generated a substantial free cash flow of $421.6 million for the year. Debt was reduced by $22.9 million, achieving a laudable net leverage ratio of 0.31x. Optimistically looking ahead to 2024, Alliance expects a strong year with a well-contracted order book and potential export opportunities, projecting coal sales volumes between 34 and 35.8 million tons.

Financials

Balance Sheet Decomposition
Alliance Resource Partners LP

Current Assets 516.1m
Cash & Short-Term Investments 59.8m
Receivables 292.3m
Other Current Assets 164m
Non-Current Assets 2.3B
Long-Term Investments 139m
PP&E 2B
Other Non-Current Assets 94m
Current Liabilities 227.5m
Accounts Payable 108.3m
Accrued Liabilities 70.4m
Other Current Liabilities 48.8m
Non-Current Liabilities 726.5m
Long-Term Debt 316.8m
Other Non-Current Liabilities 409.6m
Efficiency

Earnings Waterfall
Alliance Resource Partners LP

Revenue
2.6B USD
Cost of Revenue
-178.4m USD
Gross Profit
2.4B USD
Operating Expenses
-1.7B USD
Operating Income
672.4m USD
Other Expenses
-60.6m USD
Net Income
611.8m USD

Free Cash Flow Analysis
Alliance Resource Partners LP

Last Value
3-Years Average
FCF Margin
Conversion Rate
History
Components
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Table
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Fundamental Scores

ARLP Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence

Alliance Resource Partners LP's profitability score is 72/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.

Positive Gross Profit
Positive Free Cash Flow
Positive 3-Year Average ROE
Exceptional 3-Years Revenue Growth
72/100
Profitability
Score

Alliance Resource Partners LP's profitability score is 72/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.

ARLP Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence

Alliance Resource Partners LP's solvency score is 72/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.

High Interest Coverage
Low D/E
Long-Term Solvency
High Altman Z-Score
72/100
Solvency
Score

Alliance Resource Partners LP's solvency score is 72/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.

Wall St
Price Targets

ARLP Price Targets Summary
Alliance Resource Partners LP

Wall Street analysts forecast ARLP stock price to rise over the next 12 months.

According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ARLP is 26.52 USD with a low forecast of 25.25 USD and a high forecast of 28.35 USD.

Lowest
Price Target
25.25 USD
26% Upside
Average
Price Target
26.52 USD
32% Upside
Highest
Price Target
28.35 USD
41% Upside
View Analyst Estimates
View Analyst Estimates

Competitive Landscape

Ownership

ARLP Insider Trading
Buy and sell transactions by insiders

Cumulative Transactions Amount
Period Sold Bought Net
3 Months
6 Months
9 Months
12 Months
Why is insider trading important?

Shareholder Return

ARLP Price
Alliance Resource Partners LP

1M 1M
+6%
6M 6M
-11%
1Y 1Y
+2%
3Y 3Y
+328%
5Y 5Y
+38%
10Y 10Y
+8%
Annual Price Range
20.05
52w Low
17.1
52w High
24.12
Price Metrics
Average Annual Return 40.53%
Standard Deviation of Annual Returns 115.49%
Max Drawdown -85%
Shares Statistics
Market Capitalization 2.5B USD
Shares Outstanding 128 062 000
Percentage of Shares Shorted 5.07%

ARLP Return Decomposition
Main factors of price return

What is price return decomposition?

ARLP News

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Company Profile

Alliance Resource Partners LP Logo
Alliance Resource Partners LP

Country

United States of America

Industry

Energy

Market Cap

2.5B USD

Dividend Yield

13.87%

Description

Alliance Resource Partners LP is a natural resource company, which produces and markets coal to United States utilities and industrial users. The company is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma and currently employs 2,990 full-time employees. The firm operates through three segments: Illinois Basin, Appalachia, and Minerals. The Illinois Basin segment includes its operating mining complexes. The Appalachia segment includes its operating mining complexes. The Minerals segment includes the Company’s oil & gas mineral interests. The firm is a producer and marketer of coal primarily to the United States utilities and industrial users. The firm owns both mineral and royalty interests in approximately 1.5 million gross acres in oil & gas producing regions in the United States, primarily the Permian, Anadarko, and Williston Basins. In addition, it develops and markets industrial and mining technology products and services.

Contact

OKLAHOMA
Tulsa
1717 S Boulder Ave
+19182957600.0
https://www.arlp.com/

IPO

1999-08-17

Employees

2 990

Officers

Chairman, President & CEO of Alliance Resource Management GP, LLC
Mr. Joseph W. Craft III
VP, Controller & Chief Accounting Officer of Alliance Resource Management GP, LLC
Ms. Megan J. Cordle
Vice President of Public Affairs - Alliance Resource Management GP LLC
Mr. Heath A. Lovell
Executive Vice President of Alliance Resource Management GP, LLC
Mr. Robert G. Sachse
Senior Vice President of Sales & Marketing - Alliance Coal, LLC
Mr. Timothy J. Whelan
Senior Vice President of New Ventures - Alliance Resource Management GP, LLC
Mr. D. Andrew Woodward

See Also

Discover More
What is the Intrinsic Value of one ARLP stock?

The intrinsic value of one ARLP stock under the Base Case scenario is 30.9 USD.

Is ARLP stock undervalued or overvalued?

Compared to the current market price of 20.05 USD, Alliance Resource Partners LP is Undervalued by 35%.