Air Transport Services Group Inc
NASDAQ:ATSG
Intrinsic Value
Air Transport Services Group, Inc. engages in the provision of airline operations, aircraft leases, aircraft maintenance, and other support services primarily to the cargo transportation and package d... [ Read More ]
The intrinsic value of one
ATSG
stock under the Base Case scenario is
34.45
USD.
Compared to the current market price of 12.61 USD,
Air Transport Services Group Inc
is
Undervalued by 63%.
ATSG could be a value trap.A value trap occurs when a stock looks inexpensive based on fundamental analysis but fails to reach its intrinsic valuation over time, often due to underlying issues not reflected in quantitative data.
Scrutinize beyond numbers; assess long-term potential.
Air Transport Services Group Inc's market capitalization is 822.7m USD.
ATSG stock price is 12.61 USD.
ATSG stock price (12.61 USD) is 63% less than its Intrinsic Value (34.45 USD).
ATSG stock price (12.61 USD) is 73% less than its Relative Value (47.39 USD). Open Relative Valuation
ATSG has upside potential of 63% compared to the average analyst price target.
Open Wall St Estimates
ATSG's Revenue has grown by 1% over the past 12 months.
ATSG's Revenue is forecast to grow at a rate of 3% per year over the next 3 years.
ATSG has positive Operating Income for the last twelve months.
ATSG has positive Net Income for the last twelve months.
ATSG has positive three-year average ROE (Return on Equity): 12%. The company is efficient at transforming stockholders' equity into net income.
ATSG has negative Free Cash Flow for the last twelve months.
ATSG's ROIC (Return on Invested Capital) has decreased in the last 3 years from 10% to 4%.
ATSG's ROE (Return on Equity) for the past 12 months is very low and is equal to 4%.
ATSG's D/E (Debt to Equity) is equal to 1.25.
ATSG's ROIC (Return on Invested Capital) for the past 12 months is very low and is equal to 4%.
ATSG's Revenue has been growing by 10% per year for the last 3 years.
ATSG has positive three-year average ROIC (Return on Invested Capital): 6%. The company is efficient at using invested capital to generate operating income.
ATSG's short-term liabilties (400m USD) exceed its short-term assets (346m USD).
ATSG's long-term assets (4B USD) exceed its long-term liabilties (3B USD).
ATSG's ROE (Return on Equity) has significantly increased in the last 3 years from -8% to 4%.
ATSG has positive Gross Profit for the last twelve months.
ATSG's Altman Z-Score is very low and is equal to 1.16.
ATSG has positive Net Debt. This means that the company has more debt (2B USD) than cash and short-term investments (54m USD).
ATSG generates enough operating income (200m USD) to cover interest payments on its debt (52m USD).
Valuation Backtest
Air Transport Services Group Inc
Run backtest to discover the historical profit from buying and selling
ATSG
stocks based on their intrinsic value.
Analyze the historical link between intrinsic value and market price to make more informed investment decisions.
Fundamental Analysis
Air Transport Services Group Inc
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Air Transport Services Group Inc
| Current Assets | 345.7m |
| Cash & Short-Term Investments | 53.6m |
| Receivables | 215.6m |
| Other Current Assets | 76.6m |
| Non-Current Assets | 3.5B |
| Long-Term Investments | 22.7m |
| PP&E | 2.9B |
| Intangibles | 482.4m |
| Other Non-Current Assets | 156.4m |
| Current Liabilities | 400.2m |
| Accounts Payable | 227.7m |
| Accrued Liabilities | 87.6m |
| Other Current Liabilities | 84.9m |
| Non-Current Liabilities | 2.1B |
| Long-Term Debt | 1.7B |
| Other Non-Current Liabilities | 405.6m |
Earnings Waterfall
Air Transport Services Group Inc
|
Revenue
|
2.1B
USD
|
|
Cost of Revenue
|
-982m
USD
|
|
Gross Profit
|
1.1B
USD
|
|
Operating Expenses
|
-888.8m
USD
|
|
Operating Income
|
199.8m
USD
|
|
Other Expenses
|
-139.5m
USD
|
|
Net Income
|
60.3m
USD
|
Free Cash Flow Analysis
Air Transport Services Group Inc
What is Free Cash Flow?
ATSG Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Air Transport Services Group Inc's profitability score is 52/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Air Transport Services Group Inc's profitability score is 52/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
ATSG Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Air Transport Services Group Inc's solvency score is 30/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Air Transport Services Group Inc's solvency score is 30/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
ATSG Price Targets Summary
Air Transport Services Group Inc
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for
ATSG
is 20.57 USD
with a low forecast of 14.14 USD and a high forecast of 28.35 USD.
Ownership
ATSG Insider Trading
Buy and sell transactions by insiders
| Period | Sold | Bought | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Months |
|
|
|
| 6 Months |
|
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| 9 Months |
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| 12 Months |
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Shareholder Return
ATSG Price
Air Transport Services Group Inc
| Average Annual Return | 3.94% |
| Standard Deviation of Annual Returns | 19.34% |
| Max Drawdown | -66% |
| Market Capitalization | 822.7m USD |
| Shares Outstanding | 65 683 900 |
| Percentage of Shares Shorted | 9.99% |
Company Profile
Air Transport Services Group Inc
Country
Industry
Market Cap
Dividend Yield
Description
Air Transport Services Group, Inc. engages in the provision of airline operations, aircraft leases, aircraft maintenance, and other support services primarily to the cargo transportation and package delivery industries. The company is headquartered in Wilmington, Ohio and currently employs 5,280 full-time employees. The company went IPO on 2003-07-23. The firm is a provider of aircraft leasing and air cargo transportation and related services. The company operates through two segments: Cargo Aircraft Management Inc. (CAM) and ACMI Services. The CAM segment includes the leasing of aircraft and aircraft engines. The ACMI Services segment includes the cargo and passenger aircraft flight operations of its three airlines. ACMI Services consists of the operations of its three airline subsidiaries: ABX Air, Inc. (ABX), Air Transport International, Inc. (ATI), and Omni Air International, LLC (OAI). The firm offers an array of complementary solutions ranging from flight and ground operations to aircraft maintenance and overhaul services. The company has a total in-service fleet comprised of 117 Boeing aircraft. The firm lease converted freighter aircraft to customers throughout North America, Europe, Asia and Africa. The company provides a range of air transportation-related services to its customers.
Contact
IPO
Employees
Officers
The intrinsic value of one
ATSG
stock under the Base Case scenario is
34.45
USD.
Compared to the current market price of 12.61 USD,
Air Transport Services Group Inc
is
Undervalued by 63%.
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