Old Dominion Freight Line Inc
NASDAQ:ODFL
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209.29
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one
ODFL
stock under the Base Case scenario is
101.16
USD.
Compared to the current market price of 155.15 USD,
Old Dominion Freight Line Inc
is
Overvalued by 35%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
Let our AI compare Alpha Spread’s intrinsic value with external valuations from Simply Wall St, GuruFocus, ValueInvesting.io, Seeking Alpha, and others.
Let our AI break down the key assumptions behind the intrinsic value calculation for Old Dominion Freight Line Inc.
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Fundamental Analysis
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Old Dominion’s heavy dependence on industrial and manufacturing freight demand could expose it to severe downturns in economic cycles, amplifying freight volume volatility and hitting operating margins hard if customer shipments significantly slow.
Industry-wide capacity expansion might put pressure on Old Dominion’s historically best-in-class operating ratio, as increased competition could lead to intensified pricing battles and narrower profit margins if the company cannot sustain premium pricing.
A shortfall in driver recruitment and retention—accentuated by tightening labor pools—could undermine service reliability, lead to higher wage costs, and weaken Old Dominion’s competitive advantage in on-time performance.
Old Dominion’s consistent industry leadership in on-time delivery and low claims ratio underpins a premium service model, supporting higher pricing power and stable margins even in challenging freight markets.
Significant investments in terminal expansion and fleet upgrades provide the company with ample capacity to capture additional market share, accommodating customer growth and reinforcing its position in the LTL segment.
Its disciplined cost management approach has historically generated one of the best operating ratios in trucking, signaling that Old Dominion can sustain top-tier profitability through fluctuating demand cycles.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Old Dominion Freight Line Inc
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Old Dominion Freight Line Inc
| Current Assets | 663.8m |
| Cash & Short-Term Investments | 46.6m |
| Receivables | 540.1m |
| Other Current Assets | 77.1m |
| Non-Current Assets | 4.9B |
| PP&E | 4.6B |
| Other Non-Current Assets | 267.2m |
| Current Liabilities | 551.4m |
| Accounts Payable | 81.9m |
| Accrued Liabilities | 429.6m |
| Other Current Liabilities | 39.8m |
| Non-Current Liabilities | 702.1m |
| Long-Term Debt | 65m |
| Other Non-Current Liabilities | 637.1m |
Free Cash Flow Analysis
Old Dominion Freight Line Inc
| USD | |
| Free Cash Flow | USD |
Earnings Waterfall
Old Dominion Freight Line Inc
|
Revenue
|
5.6B
USD
|
|
Cost of Revenue
|
-582.2m
USD
|
|
Gross Profit
|
5B
USD
|
|
Operating Expenses
|
-3.6B
USD
|
|
Operating Income
|
1.4B
USD
|
|
Other Expenses
|
-333.4m
USD
|
|
Net Income
|
1.1B
USD
|
ODFL Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Old Dominion Freight Line Inc's profitability score is 62/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Old Dominion Freight Line Inc's profitability score is 62/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
ODFL Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Old Dominion Freight Line Inc's solvency score is 86/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Old Dominion Freight Line Inc's solvency score is 86/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
ODFL Price Targets Summary
Old Dominion Freight Line Inc
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for
ODFL
is 158.51 USD
with a low forecast of 115.14 USD and a high forecast of 190.05 USD.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for
ODFL is
.
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
The intrinsic value of one
ODFL
stock under the Base Case scenario is
101.16
USD.
Compared to the current market price of 155.15 USD,
Old Dominion Freight Line Inc
is
Overvalued by 35%.