Ulta Beauty Inc
NASDAQ:ULTA
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Ulta Beauty Inc
NASDAQ:ULTA
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of Ulta Beauty Inc (ULTA) under the Base Case is 422.82 USD per share.
Compared with the current market price of 626.34 USD, the stock appears
Overvalued by 32% .
The intrinsic value is calculated using the DCF method. The model assumes Ulta Beauty's revenue growth slows from 9.3% in 2027 to an average of 6.3% a year over the next five years, versus 15% over the last five. Repeating its five-year revenue growth rate would put the estimate at about $634.
Do our valuations actually work? See backtest results .
Cheap or expensive for this stock?
This block shows whether today’s valuation is cheap or expensive compared with the stock’s own history, and what happened after similar valuations in the past.
We compare the gap between the stock’s price and our estimated value over time.
- Undervalued can still be historically expensive. The stock may trade below our estimated value, but usually offer an even bigger discount.
- Overvalued can still be historically cheap. The stock may trade above our estimated value, but usually carry an even higher premium.
Market expectations can differ from our model, which may not fully capture everything affecting the price. That is why some stocks regularly trade above our estimated value and others below it.
The scale and chart show how today’s valuation compares with the past. The cards summarize past returns and waiting times until the stock stopped being cheap or expensive. This can happen because the price changed, our estimated value changed, or both.
Only completed periods are included. These are past results, not forecasts. The usual historical range does not necessarily mean fair value.
Fundamental Analysis
What Ulta Beauty Does
Ulta Beauty is a specialty retailer that sells cosmetics, skin care, hair care, fragrance, and beauty tools. It also offers salon services in many of its stores, such as haircuts, coloring, and other personal care services. Its main customers are everyday consumers who shop for beauty products for themselves at a broad range of price points.
- Headquarters
- United States of America US
- Employees
- 21 382
- IPO date
- Oct 25, 2007
Ulta Beauty has a narrow economic moat
Exclusive selling rights prevent competing stores from offering some of Ulta Beauty’s products, giving shoppers a reason to buy from Ulta. Its rewards program also makes concentrating purchases worthwhile because customers can build toward larger discounts and earned benefits that do not transfer to another retailer.
Read the full moat analysis
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Ulta Beauty Inc
Earnings Waterfall
Ulta Beauty Inc
The intrinsic value for Ulta Beauty Inc (ULTA) under the Base Case is 422.82 USD.
Compared with the current market price of 626.34 USD, the stock appears Overvalued by 32% .