AGI Greenpac Ltd

NSE:AGI

Q3-2026 Earnings Call

[Operator]

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to AGI Limited's Q3 FY '26 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded.

I now hand the conference over to Mr. Navin Agarwal, Head, Institutional Equities at SKP Securities Limited. Thank you, and over to you, sir.

[Navin Agarwal]

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. It's my pleasure to welcome you on behalf of AGI Greenpac Limited and SKP Securities to this financial results conference call.

We have with us Mr. Rajesh Khosla, President and CEO; Mr. Sandeep Sikka, Group CFO; Mr. Om Prakash Pandey, CFO. We'll have the opening remarks from Mr. Om Prakash Pandey, followed by the Q&A session.

Thank you, and over to you, Mr. Pandey.

[Om Prakash Pandey, executive]

Good evening, everyone, and thank you for joining the AGI Greenpac Q3 FY '26 earnings call. For those following along, our detailed earnings presentation is already available on our website and on the stock exchange portals. Before we begin, please note the standard disclaimer regarding forward-looking statements on Slide #2 of that presentation.

I would like to begin with a quick overview of our performance for the 9 months ended 31st December 2025. During the period, the company reported revenue of INR 1,923 crores, up from INR 1,824 crores last year. This growth reflects the strong performance in select segment and our continued focus on premium products.

EBITDA stood at INR 484 crores, slightly lower than INR 497 crores in 9 months ended FY '25, while profit after tax increased to INR 236 crores from INR 226 crores, supported by disciplined cost and expense management.

Looking at the quarterly performance in Q3 FY '26, AGI Greenpac recorded revenue from operation of INR 634 crores, EBITDA of INR 154 crores and profit after tax of INR 71 crores, which includes exceptional item of INR 5.09 crores related to estimated impact of the labor court implementation. Revenue improved sequentially, while EBITDA saw a slight decline, reflecting market dynamics and pricing adjustment across the segments.

Looking at profitability, EBITDA margin were lower compared to the same period last year, mainly due to the combined effect of muted volume in certain product category and adjustments in average sales realization. That said, we continue to maintain our 12 to 18 months margin guidance, excluding nonoperating income in the range of 24% to 25% margin are assessed on an annualized basis rather than quarter-to-quarter basis.

On the balance sheet front, we remain financially strong. During Q3, the company completed the prepayment of remaining ECB loans in December '25, resulting in nil ECB borrowing as of 31st December 2025, net book debt stood at approximately INR 389 crores, providing us with the flexibility to support future growth initiatives. This slight increase was partly due to delay in order deliveries in certain product categories.

Now, I will hand over the call to Mr. Rajesh Khosla to walk you through the key strategic and business highlights that underpin our continued growth trajectory.

[Rajesh Khosla, executive]

Good evening, and thank you, Mr. Pandey. Mr. Pandey has walked you through the financial performance for the 9 months ended December 31, 2025. Building on that overview, I'll focus on the business, our execution priorities and the growth road map ahead.

Talking about the container glass, our sales volume increased around 10% over Q2 FY '26, though they were slightly lower by 2% compared to Q3 FY '25. Capacity utilization remained strong at around 95%. On the pricing front, sales realization decreased by approximately INR 450 per tonne versus Q2 FY '26 and INR [indiscernible] per tonne versus Q3 FY '25. These variations are primarily due to the regular adjustment built into our contracts with the liquor customer and other customers where pricing is reviewed in line with the key raw material cost movement typically flowing through the 1 quarter lag.

Turning to the Specialty Glass business. Sales volume were largely flat compared to FY '26, but up more than 13% over Q3 FY '25. With capacity utilization at around 85%, realization improved significantly, increasing by around INR 900 per tonne versus Q2 FY '26 and INR 6,800 per tonne as compared to Q3 FY '25.

Overall volume in commercial glass business was subdued this quarter, particularly in the beer segment due to seasonal factors and temporary deferment of deliveries by the customer on account of weather-related considerations. We expect volumes to recover and normalize in the coming quarter.

Over the past 9 months, we have continued to strengthen the company through disciplined execution and a clear focus on premium and specialty segment. Our strategy remains centered on operational excellence, timely capacity additions and portfolio diversifications to build a resilient and scalable business.

On the operation front, we have delivered the strong progress. The container glass debottlenecking project has been fully completed and commissioned, increasing capacity to 1,900 tonnes per day, well ahead of the earlier March '26 timelines. This earlier completion reflects our execution capabilities and enhances our ability to serve customers reliably and efficiently.

With commercial container glass plant operating at approximately 95% utilization, we continue to see through strong demand and high level of operational efficiency across our plants. In specialty glass, the capacity expansion to 200 tonnes per day is progressing as planned and remain on track for completion by March '26.

Demand continues to be steady from high-margin segments such as pharmaceutical, cosmetic and premium beverages with existing capacities operating at around 85% utilization, reflecting healthy demand and efficient operations.

Our greenfield container glass facility in Madhya Pradesh is also advancing steadily. Land acquisition has been completed. Civil construction is underway and procurement of key machinery is in progress with major equipment contracts being finalized alongside statutory and regulatory approvals. Scheduled for commissioning in March '27, the 500 tonnes per day facility is expected to increase our glass container capacity by approximately 25% and significantly strengthen our footprints across key consumption markets, particularly in North of India.

In parallel, our strategic entry into the aluminum beverage can segment remains on schedule. Equipment procurement is in final stages for the annual capacity of 1.6 billion cans. This expansion complements our glass business, strengthens key customer relationships and enhances our ability to offer a broader range of high-demand, sustainable liquid packaging solutions.

Looking ahead, the long-term fundamentals of glass and sustainable packaging remains strong with completed capacity addition, a growing premium product portfolio and continued operation discipline, we are well poised to capture future growth. We remain focused on building a diversified future-ready business and on creating a sustainable long-term value for our shareholders.

Thank you very much.

[Operator]

Excuse me, sir. Should I go ahead and open the floor for the Q&A?

[Rajesh Khosla, executive]

Yes.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] The first question is from the line of [ Anil Shah ] from Insightful Investments.

[Anil Shah, analyst]

Am I audible?

[Rajesh Khosla, executive]

Yes, please.

[Anil Shah, analyst]

Yes. So just wanted to check, we've consistently spoken about 8% to 10% revenue growth. Of course, now when I look at the first 9 months cumulative, we are up about 5.4%, and we just have a quarter to go. So what really transpired in the third quarter? Clearly, revenue was not up to your -- possibly our expectations. So that's the first question.

The second question is, could you just explain clearly our -- what's in mind in terms of our entry into retail? Could you just specify what exactly are we looking to do? Are we looking to build brands? What's going to be our spend in -- while we understand everything will be outsourced, but in terms of building brands, do we have some limits in terms of what we are looking to spend on? And when 2 greenfield projects around, do we really need to go on to something different? That's the most important question that I really had.

[Rajesh Khosla, executive]

Let me reply to you. I understand first 2 questions of yours, what exactly has transpired in quarter 3, which basically should have been a normal thing. You might have read some reports from some of the top beverage manufacturers in India and even in the world. They have been talking that because of the extended rains and the extreme winters in -- particularly in the whole of India, there has been a very subdued demand of various beverage segment, particularly in the beer segment.

So because of this subdued demand in the beer segment, because of these extended rains and flooding in a lot of areas. So this demand has not picked up, and it has been a little low than the normal demand in this period. So this has been the reason for the little small correction and a shade below our expectation.

Number two is what exactly we want to do in the retail. We are already in the retail business as on date. We are selling our products in the retail business on online, offline, on our HoReCa, on our various departmental stores. So this business is already on.

But what happens is with the new FDA agreements between India and EU, India and U.K., India and Australia, and within the India also, a lot of customers are asking that we should try to serve them with the filled products, say, for example, like a diffuser or a perfume or something like that. So we should give them the full end-to-end service so that they don't have to go anywhere else to get it done.

So India is already shaping up as a good hub of the manufacturing segment. So we thought of that we can always give this sort of a facility and a service to our customers where we can give them end-to-end. So this is a new concept we are trying to evolve and to serve our customer as on today. We are not saying we are going to build a brand with that, but we are going to serve as an OEM to the brand owners. So that they don't have to go anywhere at a single shop, at a single place, we will be able to serve them the products, which are primarily packed in our bottles.

[Anil Shah, analyst]

So would that entail some manufacturing to be set up or... So you're saying they're not doing brand building. So are we then going to do manufacturing?

[Rajesh Khosla, executive]

No, we are not doing a brand building. Our core business is to sell the glass containers. So we are selling the glass containers, but we do have a lot of manufacturers on our panel. So they will be our -- we are going to outsource that activity to get it filled from them and then serve our customers to them. And tomorrow, when the business will grow up and the business will shape up, then probably we will think of on the next step of manufacturing our -- having our own manufacturing facility. But as on today, we are going to get it done through outsourced activity with that.

[Anil Shah, analyst]

Right. And as we begin the Q4, are we seeing this subdued demand due to the weather conditions easing a bit and things looking up?

[Rajesh Khosla, executive]

It looks like that now. Everything has been okay and things are normal and everything will pick up. So there is nothing lost as such, but it is a postponement, I can say like that. It is there. So at the end of the day, we will be restricted to our capacity. So we have -- whatever capacity we are having, so we are going to achieve almost whatever is our target of the capacity side. So Q4 will be able to take care of whatever is the shortfall in the Q3. So we are quite hopeful with that.

[Anil Shah, analyst]

Can we still think of an 8% to 10% value growth for the whole year as such? That was our original revenue growth guidance?

[Rajesh Khosla, executive]

See, whenever there is a -- whenever we are dealing in a commoditized products, like even a glass also, where the price of the glass is also dependent on the price of the raw materials. So whenever the price of the raw materials are low, the selling prices automatically adjust accordingly. Yes, on a growth side of, I can say, volume side or on a metric ton side, I think we will be touching close to 7% to 8%, 9%, something like that, we are going to end up. But yes, on the value side, I think so there may be a little bit of correction here and there, but that is primarily because of adjustment of the raw material prices, which are directly reflected in your selling prices.

[Anil Shah, analyst]

Just last question as a follow-up. Volume growth for the first 9 months was how much, sir?

[Rajesh Khosla, executive]

Hello?

[Anil Shah, analyst]

Yes. Volume growth for the first 9 months was how much, sir?

[Sandeep Sikka, executive]

On the container glass, we did around 8% volume growth.

[Anil Shah, analyst]

On container glass it was...

[Sandeep Sikka, executive]

On the commercial glass, we did around 8% plus. And on the specialty glass, we were at -- you asked volume growth?

[Rajesh Khosla, executive]

More than 20%, 22% growth.

[Sandeep Sikka, executive]

More than 20%, 22%.

[Anil Shah, analyst]

Volume growth. Okay.

[Operator]

The next question is from the line of [ Shreya Chatterjee from HGS Capital ].

[Unknown Analyst]

My first question is on the volatility of the contracts that are priced in terms of volume terms. So for the specialty and this container glass as well, what sort of fluctuations can we expect apart from that broad range of growth, what sort of fluctuations we can expect given there's a seasonality in demand similar to what happened in Q3?

And what would be the impact on EBITDA given that we have commissioned the facility earlier before March 2026. And the next facility is going to come on March 2027. So if you could just give a brief breakdown on these 2.

[Sandeep Sikka, executive]

I think if I understood your question completely, part one, let me reply to you. If my answer is not in line with what you have asked, so you can again ask me the same. See, I understand that you are talking what are the factors are there, which can really impact the curve or impact the growth of the glass industry in both in cosmetic and commercial glass. Is my understanding right?

[Unknown Analyst]

Yes. Yes. And how does that variability like price.

[Rajesh Khosla, executive]

That is a part two of that. So we'll do that. In the part one question, of course, because whenever you are planning, you are planning with the assumptions that all the factors are within the reasonable level of fluctuation and everything will fall in line. But yes, there are some extreme things and some turbulences in the whole area, which slightly, I cannot say, derail, but disturbed a bit and where you postpone your total sales from quarter 1 to quarter 2, quarter 2 to quarter 3 and quarter 3 to quarter 4, something like that.

So these factors are, let's say, for example, this time, it has happened with the extreme rain, with the heavy rains and the flooding, obviously, there was a subdued demand on the beer side, which probably I think you can easily assess the information, which is in public domain by the top beverages company of the world. So they have also published the same thing with that part. So that is one part.

Secondly, though we have grown very, very in a big way, -- in our normal, what you call specialty glass, we have grown in a big way. But yes, the tariffs which has been imposed in U.S.A., they have the rippling effect somewhere to the industry, okay? Then probably there are other factors, rupee depreciation is a factor and then there is a growth is a factor. So there are various, various, various factors and all. And what I can congratulate, I think to my team members, in spite of all those things, the growth, the trajectory has been well maintained, and we have been able to deliver quite good reasonable results with all those factors in there.

And see, we are to be more concerned on some of the factors which can be a permanent factor. So temporary factors are not to be much of the concern, but I think we have to live with that and we have to see how we can reasonably lower down the impact of these type of factors. So Q3 was the factor which was more on the rain side, which nobody can do it. It's a factor which has been God factor. So probably, I think we have to live with that. We have to see that what maximum can be taken out, and we have taken out everything. So there is a very, very shared below our targeted numbers were there, which is less than 2%. So it hardly matters with that. But yes, Q4 targets will be taken care properly.

[Unknown Analyst]

And sir, what about the EBITDA margin or the trend in EBITDA margin or EBITDA per tonne, if you could give some guidance with next year also facilities coming in March '26?

[Rajesh Khosla, executive]

Okay. Mr. Sikka, you will reply or shall I do that?

[Sandeep Sikka, executive]

Yes, please go ahead. Yes. If you see, we have been giving guidance EBITDA per tonne ranging INR 9,500 to INR 10,500, and these are excluding other nonoperating income. So if we are in this range actually, INR 1,000 range is there between INR 9,500 to INR 10,500. It's a mix of various factors. On the specialty glass, we are doing fairly well now, wherein EBITDA per tonne, especially in the last 2 quarters have done fairly well. And they are in a good-digit number. But on the commercial glass, I think we'll maintain a consistent approach of INR 9,500 to INR 10,500.

[Rajesh Khosla, executive]

Mr. Sikka, the thing is -- ma'am, the EBITDA numbers because we are dealing with the input side, we are dealing with a lot of commodities like it's oil, natural gas, soda ash and all. And these sometimes they are very temporarily -- they spike up and they come down temporarily, which nobody else can do. Let's say, for example, in the case of war in that side, so the oil gets spiked up for some time, there is less of availability. Even the natural gas spiked up for some quarter or so, so which is not temporary, which cannot be even adjusted in the price also because things are very temporary. So those things can have the impact on the numbers. But overall, when we see on a long term, it looks like that everything is reasonably well balanced, and we hope to continue with our numbers whatever has been committed to our investors.

[Unknown Analyst]

Sir, if I may ask, what is the -- what would be the steady-state EBITDA per tonne for specialty glass and what is it currently?

[Rajesh Khosla, executive]

We do not disclose the numbers of EBITDA per tonne. We do not disclose. So it is just the percentage EBITDA, which is there, and it is in line with whatever we have been achieving. I can say it is close to around 25%, 26% number in the specialty glass.

[Unknown Analyst]

Okay, sir. And so we -- what is the range that we see post this March '27 sanctioning for the EBITDA margin?

[Rajesh Khosla, executive]

March '27. So we hope to maintain the same because next year, I think next year, the growth will be okay and our new facilities are coming. So there will be a much larger growth we expect once the facilities are -- when these facilities will start up because 25% of the capacity will be added up at that time. On the percentage side, we will maintain in the same band whatever we have been doing in last years. So in the same band, we'll be able to maintain our EBITDA percentages. But yes, there will be a small debottlenecking will be there and the growth is expected on the same. But the bigger growth is expected once our new facilities will be on target.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of [ Darshil Jhaveri ] from Crown Capital.

[Unknown Analyst]

So just wanted to get a bit color in terms of FY '27. So from what I can understand that all our major CapEx is coming towards the end of FY '27. So FY '27 as a whole would be -- how would you quantify in terms of our revenue growth? Because I think we have some small debottlenecking happening and we're already running at 95%. So in terms of revenue, what can we be at in FY '27, sir?

[Rajesh Khosla, executive]

Mr. Sikka?

[Sandeep Sikka, executive]

Yes, yes. So I think when you see -- although we've given guidance for FY '25-'26 at around 8% to 10% growth, Mr. Khosla spoke about it that in terms of volumes, we have been consistent, which is there. Next year, we feel that we should be able to further grow on the volume side by around 3% to 4% on the container glass and another around 7% to 10% on the specialty glass, given the fact that now when you see the trends of Q3, Q4, a lot of our capacities on specialty glass are also now getting picked up.

So overall, for FY '27, I'll say maintaining a growth chart of around 8%, 9%. And this is purely on volume base right now. The commodities may change. The commodity prices may change drastically given the -- a lot of global factors which can impact the businesses. So right now, we can give guidance is more on how the volumetric growth can happen on the glass business side, given the fact that it constitutes around 89%, 90% of our business.

But major chunk of growth, as Rajesh was talking, our project, which is a greenfield project in Madhya Pradesh, 500 tonnes is right on the right path, right speed. We are very hopeful that FY '27-'28, we should be able to load the furnaces very fast. So from the market perspective, I think the visualization has to be seen from '27-'28 more that we will be adding somewhere around 25% capacity. And we feel that around 15% to 17% growth happening in FY '27-'28, which is purely coming from the incremental capacity from the new plant.

[Unknown Analyst]

Okay. Okay. Fair enough, sir. That helps a lot, sir. And sir, just wanted to know like 2 questions, sir. One is like when we -- when glass prices are declining, but our EBITDA per tonne would be fixed, right? So that way, optically, our margins should look better, right? Because our top line is kind of getting a hit in value, but our volumes are increasing, right? So our EBITDA margins can take -- can be a bit higher than what they are right now. Is that like a fair way to look at it?

[Sandeep Sikka, executive]

So if you see in the past, we have been maintaining a consistent margin, as Rajesh also spoke of on the last question. At least for next 12 to 18 months, we'll keep the guidance, our EBITDA margins ranging 24% to 25% on the overall mix basis. Mathematically, I understand it may look difficult, but you have a container glass, you have different segments of the container glass, you have a specialty glass and you have other business like caps and closures and other stuff. So on the overall product portfolio wise, I think 12 to 18 months, our internal assessment based on the current market conditions, 24% to 25%, I think consistent EBITDA, we should be able to maintain.

[Unknown Analyst]

Okay. Okay. Fair enough, sir. And sir, just one question. Sir, we were just -- I was just reading some reports where it's saying that Gen Z and millennial are drinking a bit less. So what do you see from an industry point of view that maybe not right now, just maybe on a longer term, is there a chance of that there will be kind of softness in demand of alcohol itself, right? And how will that impact us? And I know we have already gotten into specialty to diversify, but just wanted your thoughts.

[Rajesh Khosla, executive]

Yes. I'll answer you with this. The new generation is drinking quite a less alcohol. The overall demand contraction globally has happened around 1% on the alcohol side. But on the other side, we are talking of only one part of the business that less of the alcohol is consumed. But more of the non-alcohol part is being consumed. Say, for example, there is a lot of demand which has grown in the non-alcoholic beer side. There is a lot of demand which has grown in the beverages side. So -- but these things are impacting more in Europe and more in U.S.A. because already they have a saturation on the consumption side. But in India, the saturation is quite -- the demand is quite low.

Say, for example, in the case of beer, in case of India, the beer consumption is just 2 liters per capita per year. But wherever in European country, in some of the European countries, the demand is as high as 200 liters per capita per year. And if you take the moderate one in other countries, it is anywhere between 75 liters per capita per year to 100 liters per capita per year, and we are around 2 liters. So if we see there is a lot of demand, which is very, very low in India. So I don't think so. It looks very clear. This type of impact on the generation, which is consuming less of the alcohol will come up not today. It's a matter of, say, next 20, 25 years where we will saturate at that demand and the real impact of the less drinking will come on us.

So on the one side, the demand is increasing because of the population, GDP increase and the money which is coming to the hands of the people because of that. And on the other side, there is less of the consumption. So these 2 things, they countervail and there is a total impact. Okay, total impact may not be, let's say, 100, but total impact may be around 90. So but there is an impact of -- positive impact of 90. So this is more of the problem in the Western countries.

[Unknown Analyst]

Okay. Okay. Fair enough. Fair enough. And sir, just wanted to ask like in terms of the retail diversification. So from what I understand that we will kind of like our customers are already buying the products where our packaging is being used. So we will now -- will we fill our goods or how will we -- just how would the logistics look like? Can you just give an example if that would just be really helpful, like in terms of perfume is there or anything else there?

[Rajesh Khosla, executive]

We are trying to tap all the opportunities which exist in the market. Though our core business is a glass business, but to sell the glass, to promote the glass and to make the glass available to the right people, even if we have to do a little bit of extra work or value addition, we are ready to do that so that our end product should reach to the consumer and the customer. Now what is happening, whenever there are OEMs, there are big brands are there, they are not doing like that. They're buying glass bottles and they're getting it filled. So they give the contract to the contract manufacturer. And then the whole game is with the contract manufacturer so that they can buy and they can collect the bottles and liquid and caps and other things from different sources combined together and sell it to the brand owner.

So what we are trying to do to have a more command on our product, we are going to the OEM and telling him, we want to sell our glass bottle. In case you don't want to buy a glass bottle alone, we are ready to give you the full end-to-end service so that our glass bottle should be able to reach to the brand owner. So to do all that thing, so we have a tie-up with the service providers. So service provider will integrate with us. They will provide whatever is required by the brand owner, and we will get it outsource this activity and then we can ship it directly to the brand owner so that in between our dependency on contract manufacturer of brand owner should not be there. We should be able to command our own products to the end customer.

[Unknown Analyst]

Okay. Okay. So if I could just understand that we'll basically be like the chef where everything we are sourcing and then making the dish and sending across, right? So in this type of business, what would our margins and outlook look like? Like any kind of investments that we'll have to make? I'm not saying in terms of manufacturing, maybe marketing or hiring people because this is -- this is more newer set of business, right? So what do we -- what's the road map for it?

[Rajesh Khosla, executive]

We are not hiring because we are already in that business. We are already in touch with the customer. So this is the additional facility we are going to do. Yes, on the back-end side, to get it done properly, we may require some few hands to take care to integrate and to line up and coordinate with those outsourced activities. So those are the small things which are required by them. And secondly, we are not building the brand. So there is no such marketing expense as such for them.

And regarding the margin side, again, I'm saying our main focus is to sell our core products of the glass. This activity, which we are doing additional activity is basically to support our glass, which is going to them. So the margins, we can -- we may be able to get some good margins or it can be just a service so that we are able to sell our glass properly. But on a long-term basis, our glass availability and the placement of glass to the direct OEM is certainly going to help us not only for a high-end glass, but also to have a stability and reliability of the end customer because end customer is more stable than the contract manufacturer, because contract manufacturer has a more bargaining power. So in that case, in future, we may lose it on account of our margins or something. But in case of direct customer, we may be able to gain something more better and more value-added products can be given to them. So you are cutting the channel in between and going directly to the customer. So obviously, all the advantages of going directly to the customer will be added to us or will be come to us.

[Operator]

The next question is from the line of Anil Shah from Insightful Investments.

[Anil Shah, analyst]

Sir, a couple of questions. So far, for both these projects...

[Sandeep Sikka, executive]

You talked about specialty glass volume growth that was somewhere around 7%.

[Anil Shah, analyst]

Specialty was 7%.

[Sandeep Sikka, executive]

And value growth on specialty was another 8%.

[Anil Shah, analyst]

So we are approximately for the -- considering the whole, we are running at 7%, 8%.

[Sandeep Sikka, executive]

Yes, yes. But major chunk of growth when you see Q3 versus Q3, that is somewhere around 13%. So basically, last 2, 3 quarters, the efficiency at the specialty glass has been very high. So the volumes have...

[Anil Shah, analyst]

Okay. Sir, just a couple of questions. For both the new greenfield projects, how much would we have so far disbursed in terms of land, in terms of some advances to -- advances for some machineries, licenses, so on and so forth?

[Sandeep Sikka, executive]

Yes, Mr. Pandey, can you take this?

[Om Prakash Pandey, executive]

So you're talking about the CapEx?

[Anil Shah, analyst]

Yes, correct. But I mean for both. For the 500 tonne greenfield and for the aluminum cans.

[Om Prakash Pandey, executive]

Yes, I'm coming to both. So on the Gwalior side, land acquisition already done. The LCs for equipment supplies have been established. And we feel the equipment should start coming in Q2 and Q3 into the -- civil construction is going on. And we feel by 31st March '27, the production should be up running. There can be one quarter here and there in terms of stabilizing the quality and other stuff as is very usual with the greenfield site.

The can project, land has been rectified. Government is in the process of releasing that land as per our information. The negotiation with the equipment supplier is already completed. And once we have a formal confirmation of a land, they immediately will start. And then there also, the lead time for the equipment period is somewhere around 11 months to 12 months. So all the work on the ground has been completed. As such, I think the major chunk of spend will come next year. And we feel that somewhere around INR 1,100 crores to INR 1,200 crores spend should happen next year and remaining in FY '28, which will be more on the can side.

[Anil Shah, analyst]

And so far, would we have spent about a couple of hundred crores yet or no?

[Om Prakash Pandey, executive]

Yes. We would have essentially spent somewhere around INR 60 crores, INR 70 crores on the overall land acquisition, doing some ground studies and other stuff.

[Anil Shah, analyst]

Okay. And the debt that we are now talking about the net debt at INR 389 crores is after whatever cash outflows happened for this land and everything.

[Om Prakash Pandey, executive]

Yes. Because as you see, that has not been that great for Q3, as Rajesh has already spoken of. So we built up some inventories. So working capital has slightly bloated. That's a temporary effect. So once those inventories get diluted, working capital will come down. The long-term debt, which is there is somewhere around INR 220 crores and of which somewhere around INR 30 crores, INR 40 crores is relating to the newer CapEx, rest is the old, which we are just trying to prepay.

[Anil Shah, analyst]

Okay. And so what's the status of the appeal that we had with the Delhi High Court, especially for the acquisition which has been done for...

[Om Prakash Pandey, executive]

Hearing is right now going on at this juncture as we talk to you.

[Anil Shah, analyst]

Okay. So it's still hearing stages. We have not done -- there's no -- I mean, when do you see some decision basically? I mean I know it's...

[Om Prakash Pandey, executive]

It's very difficult to comment on this.

[Anil Shah, analyst]

Right. And have we seen any new -- I mean, any incremental supply coming in from the new owners now that operationally, the plants and that company, the entire capacities are moved to the new people?

[Om Prakash Pandey, executive]

Very difficult to comment on the competition as such right now. But I think those capacities were already operating for last so many years. And it's all a part of the entire market game, which is there. But difficult for us to comment on anything relating to the competition.

[Anil Shah, analyst]

Right. So basically, the confidence of at least 8% to 10% volume growth and maintaining 24% to 25% margins, that's there for the next 12, 18 months. Of course, value growth subject to raw material movement, and hence, I'm not talking about that. But I'm saying 8% to 10% volume growth because we've just done some minor expansion, both at the specialty and at the container side. So that should help us in '27 as well. So 8% to 10% volume growth and steady margins between 24%, 25% is very much on the cards.

[Om Prakash Pandey, executive]

Yes.

[Anil Shah, analyst]

And so with the kind of spend that you talked about, INR 1,100 crores to INR 1,200 crores next year itself, I mean, obviously, you've taken approval for a QIP or a fundraise, let's put it that way. Any thoughts? Are we happy to fund this -- if markets remain where they are and you're not happy with the price, are we happy to fund this with entire debt for a short period of -- for a period of time?

[Om Prakash Pandey, executive]

I think the whole -- the logic of doing the QIP resolution is that we should have an enabling resolution in place and the approvals for the shareholder. So whenever we feel the time, the price and markets are ready, we can do. But in the interim, we are in process of tying up the entire debt, which is required to complete these projects. So we already have a stable EBITDA run rate, which is there. And given the fact that the existing debt will get almost paid off by the time all this new debt gets commissioned as a part of the P&L. Right now, the capitalization.

So we feel that maybe if we don't raise equity, there will be some little bit of a leverage. But at the right time and more -- we internally feel that more nearing the completion of the projects, market should be able to see the value which we are trying to generate and we should be able to complete the projects.

[Anil Shah, analyst]

But hypothetically, we are okay with debt because assuming we can continue to show INR 600 crores of EBITDA, debt INR 1,100 crores, INR 1,200 crores, will be EBITDA to debt of 2x, which is not of the charge.

[Om Prakash Pandey, executive]

Yes. I think that leverage when you're trying to create a capacity and that's not a bad leverage from us.

[Anil Shah, analyst]

Yes. So I'm saying even if closer to commercialization, if markets continue to remain subdued, we can continue with this kind of debt even up to -- even at the continuation of FY '28 and see how the new capacity ramp up. Of course, EBITDA will move up further, cash flows will move up further, correct?

[Om Prakash Pandey, executive]

Yes, yes. So let's say, a hypothetical model, let's say, we build even a debt of, let's say, INR 1,200 crores to INR 1,400 crores for this. All the incremental capacities will lead to incremental EBITDA and incremental free cash flow from operation. So ultimately, all that money, even if you see in the past last 4 years, we have paid off the debt with internal accruals, all the CapEx, which has been done for revamping our existing furnaces and also debottlenecking our facilities. Everything happened from the internal accruals. So the quantum of free cash flows are available with us, and that will also bring down the debt in time. But we are also open to raise equity and maybe if that can accelerate the growth on our businesses.

[Anil Shah, analyst]

I get this. It's just that I think there could be a one-off year where capacities take time to ramp up. And as soon as we start commercial production...

[Om Prakash Pandey, executive]

That's really normal, like the critical part of the game is creating a quality capacity, which is able to generate a cost optimum value in the right quality.

[Anil Shah, analyst]

Absolutely.

[Om Prakash Pandey, executive]

We have created that you have won the long-term work.

[Anil Shah, analyst]

See, from a shareholder perspective, sir, all we can say is rather than diluting things at these kind of valuations, it's okay to carry that risk if the management is confident. I mean that's the way we look at things, right?

[Om Prakash Pandey, executive]

I think the promoters' interest because the largest shareholders [indiscernible]

[Operator]

The next question is from the line of [ Sandeep Mukherjee ] from SKP Securities Limited.

[Sandeep Mukherjee, analyst]

Sir, what is the -- what was the CapEx spend for the 9-month period?

[Sandeep Sikka, executive]

So we have spent around INR 150 crores in 9 months and major chunk of spend has been on the glass business, wherein we are expanding our lines. We are further trying to optimize our operational cost in some facilities. And almost 75%, 80% of the spend is towards the further nurturing of the glass business.

[Sandeep Mukherjee, analyst]

Okay. And what's our target for this year?

[Sandeep Sikka, executive]

This year, overall, I think given the fact that INR 150 crores plus, I think in Q4, now given fact another INR 20 crores, INR 30 crores because still that debottlenecking of specialty glass line is happening, so we should spend another INR 25 crores.

[Sandeep Mukherjee, analyst]

Okay. Okay, sir. And sir, my next question is, what is your assessment on the RM input cost like RM input prices like soda ash and fuel oil prices, if you...

[Rajesh Khosla, executive]

Okay. So you are talking of the raw material prices -- input prices. So there are so many inputs are there. Say, for example, like you are talking about the soda ash. If you are following the soda ash part, so there was a minimum import price MIP and there was an antidumping duty, what do you call, investigation, which has been done by the government to put up antidumping duty. But they have lost the antidumping duty and there is no antidumping duty. So there was a little bit of spike in the price side in soda ash. But then after they lost the antidumping duty, it has been stabilized.

But now the soda ash prices looks to be stable because in the overall global market demand side, I think the total demand and supply is almost stable. It's close to 60 million tonnes globally. So I don't think so there can be any spike in prices of soda ash as on today. Yes, the factors which are global factors, which are global politics factor that I'm not considering that the war between A country and B country, what impact can have too difficult to assess the same. But overall, from a business side, it looks like that the soda ash part is stable.

Coming back to the oil. See, oil is again directly proportional to the crude oil prices. And the crude oil prices, if we see the scenario on the U.S. side, where they are drilling as much oil as possible. So it looks like that U.S. will always try to stabilize the oil prices globally. And on the other side, the war or there is destabilization in Venezuela or Iran or somewhere, these things can push the price a little bit more. So too difficult to assess that because we are -- it is beyond our capacity to assess. But yes, all these factors looks like that. On one side, there can be a spike. On the other side, it can be low also.

So it looks like that with all the war situation, global situation, these things will be remaining in the band itself. If they are in the band, obviously, the prices in India on the furnace oil side, on the gas side will also remain in the proper band only. So I don't see -- there is no reason we can see that there can be anything which can derail the price part of the input side. I don't think so.

[Sandeep Mukherjee, analyst]

Right, sir. And in the quarter gone by, sir, the soda ash prices really has given a short spike. So did it impact our EBITDA margin or RM cost?

[Rajesh Khosla, executive]

See, again, since we have a system, where quite a big number of our sale, we have trended against our formula-based pricing on the input side. But if the input prices changes on permanent basis or on semi-permanent basis, then only it comes in the picture of calculation. But if they are small spikes or they can be low also, and they are temporary. That's what I'm saying because of some rain problem or this problem or shutdown problem or anything problem, if there is increase or decrease of the prices, they can give you headwind or tailwind temporary, which cannot be coming in your formula base or pricing system. So those headwinds and tailwinds can give a boost in your margins at some time or they can even subdued your margin for temporary on that quarter, on that period of time.

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, we will take the last question for today, which is from the line of Praveen Sharma, an individual investor.

[Unknown Attendee]

Hello, sir, am I audible?

[Operator]

Yes, sir. Please proceed.

[Unknown Attendee]

Yes. Sir, I will carrying out from the last participant, being a long-term investor, and we find a lot of value in the company. My only question is that there was a recent news clip on CNBC somewhere in the end of November that there is a QIP of INR 500 crores with a green shoot option of INR 800 crores, up to INR 800 crores. So given after that, the price has fallen sharply, around 25%, 30% fall has been there in our company's share price. So given this scenario, will we come up with a QIP and dilute the equity from here on because INR 800 crores is like 20% of the market cap. So I would like you to allay our peers being a long-term investors, and we have been there with the company for a very long time and similarly, there will be many more investors.

[Sandeep Sikka, executive]

So first, I think we never gave any news that we are about to close such a transaction. So company has shareholder approval to do a QIP transaction. And I think to a question of Mr. Anil Shah, which was taken, I think, a few questions back. So since we are doing 2 major spend, we may raise equity at a particular time depending on how our projects have matured, point number one. Secondly, how our free cash flows are panning out during that period, what is the market price.

I understand and I appreciate the dilution concern for the public shareholder, but it's a similar concern with the largest shareholder who is a promoter. So be rest assured. We are not here to destroy anybody value, but in other way around, we are here to create value for all our stakeholders for a very long run. We are very thankful for your long-term investments, which you have supported us. So be rest assured on that. But I think raising equity may be required, but depending on the timing, pricing, a number of factors.

[Unknown Attendee]

Great, sir. Great. And are we open to look at rights issue because that will give an opportunity to everyone, but the quantum and the time it takes.

[Sandeep Sikka, executive]

So right now, as I said, at an appropriate time, we'll talk, and I think we'll get back. We'll take feedback from our shareholders as required, if any. So we'll take those appropriate actions at the right time.

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question for today. Please get in touch with SKP Securities for any unanswered or follow-up questions. I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Sandeep Sikka for closing comments. Thank you, and over to you, sir.

[Sandeep Sikka, executive]

So first of all, thanks, everybody, who joined the call today. I hope due to paucity of time, we may have missed 1 or 2 questions. It's always ready to answer those questions, just please write to our Investor Relations agency or write to us. We'll be very happy to get back to you. But I feel most of the questions have been answered. They have been rightfully asked. So thanks again for joining us on the call.

[Operator]

Thank you, members of the management. Thank you, sir. On behalf of SKP Securities Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, ladies and gentlemen. You may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.