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Advance Auto Parts Inc
NYSE:AAP

Watchlist Manager
Advance Auto Parts Inc Logo
Advance Auto Parts Inc
NYSE:AAP
Watchlist
Price: 112.2 USD +0.04% Market Closed
Updated: May 31, 2023
Section:
 

Intrinsic Value

Advance Auto Parts, Inc. engages in the supply and distribution of aftermarket automotive products for both professional installers and do-it-yourself customers. [ Read More ]

The intrinsic value of one AAP stock under the Base Case scenario is 176.74 USD. Compared to the current market price of 112.2 USD, Advance Auto Parts Inc is Undervalued by 37%.

Key Points:
AAP Intrinsic Value
Base Case
176.74 USD
Undervaluation 37%
Intrinsic Value
Price
Worst Case
Base Case
Best Case
What is intrinsic value?

Fundamental Analysis

Financials
11.2B
+0.7%
Revenue
Growth Rates:
1 Year
+1%
3 Years
+15%
5 Years
+19%
7 Years
+15%
10 Years
-
754M
+3%
Operating Income
Growth Rates:
1 Year
-16%
3 Years
-0.1%
5 Years
+32%
7 Years
-9%
10 Years
-
502M
+5%
Net Income
Growth Rates:
1 Year
-19%
3 Years
+3%
5 Years
+6%
7 Years
+6%
10 Years
-
722M
+8%
Operating Cash Flow
Growth Rates:
1 Year
-35%
3 Years
-17%
5 Years
+20%
7 Years
+3%
10 Years
-
-426M
-1%
Capital Expenditures
Growth Rates:
1 Year
+47%
3 Years
-10%
5 Years
+124%
7 Years
+81%
10 Years
-
296M
+24%
Free Cash Flow
Growth Rates:
1 Year
-64%
3 Years
-25%
5 Years
-28%
7 Years
-37%
10 Years
-

Balance Sheet Decomposition
Advance Auto Parts Inc

12B
Assets
9.3B
Liabilities
12B
Assets
9.3B
Liabilities
Current Assets 6B
Cash & Short-Term Investments 269M
Receivables 699M
Other Current Assets 5.1B
Non-Current Assets 6B
PP&E 4.3B
Intangibles 1.6B
Other Non-Current Assets 62.4M
Current Liabilities 5.4B
Accounts Payable 4.1B
Accrued Liabilities 1B
Other Current Liabilities 198M
Non-Current Liabilities 4B
Long-Term Debt 1.2B
Other Non-Current Liabilities 2.8B
Efficiency
45%
Gross Margin
Average:
3 Years
44%
5 Years
44%
7%
Operating Margin
Average:
3 Years
8%
5 Years
7%
5%
Net Margin
Average:
3 Years
5%
5 Years
5%
3%
FCF Margin
Average:
3 Years
5%
5 Years
6%
17%
ROE
Average:
3 Years
16%
5 Years
15%
4%
ROA
Average:
3 Years
5%
5 Years
5%
8%
ROIC
Average:
3 Years
9%
5 Years
9%
11%
ROCE
Average:
3 Years
12%
5 Years
12%
Fundamental Scores

AAP Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence

Advance Auto Parts Inc's profitability score is 54/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.

Positive Gross Profit
Positive 3-Year Average ROE
Positive Free Cash Flow
ROE is Increasing
54/100
Profitability
Score

Advance Auto Parts Inc's profitability score is 54/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.

AAP Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence

Advance Auto Parts Inc's solvency score is 57/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.

High Interest Coverage
Low D/E
Long-Term Solvency
Short-Term Solvency
57/100
Solvency
Score

Advance Auto Parts Inc's solvency score is 57/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.

See Also
Fundamental Analysis
Profitability Analysis Solvency Analysis Earnings Call Transcripts
Profitability Analysis Solvency Analysis Earnings Call Transcripts

Wall St
Price Targets

AAP Price Targets Summary
Advance Auto Parts Inc

Wall Street analysts forecast AAP stock price to rise over the next 12 months.

According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AAP is 152.47 USD with a low forecast of 106.05 USD and a high forecast of 189 USD.

AAP Lowest Forecast
Wall Street Target
106.05 USD
5% Downside
AAP Average Forecast
Wall Street Target
152.47 USD
36% Upside
AAP Highest Forecast
Wall Street Target
189 USD
68% Upside
Lowest
Price Target
106.05 USD
5% Downside
Average
Price Target
152.47 USD
36% Upside
Highest
Price Target
189 USD
68% Upside
View Analyst Estimates
View Analyst Estimates

Competitive Landscape

AAP Competitors
Advance Auto Parts Inc

AAP Suppliers & Customers
Advance Auto Parts Inc

Suppliers
23
Customers
1
Suppliers Map
Customers Map

Ownership

AAP Insider Trading
Buy and sell transactions by insiders

Advance Auto Parts Inc insiders have not made purchase/sale transactions in the past 12 months.

During the last 12 months Advance Auto Parts Inc insiders have not bought any shares, and have not sold any shares. The last transaction was made on Sep 10, 2021 by Cushing Robert B (EVP, Professional), who sold 708k USD worth of AAP shares.

Summary Transactions
Sold
0-3
months
0 USD
0
3-6
months
0 USD
0
6-9
months
0 USD
0
9-12
months
0 USD
0
Bought
0-3
months
No Insider Transactions
0
0 USD
3-6
months
No Insider Transactions
0
0 USD
6-9
months
No Insider Transactions
0
0 USD
9-12
months
No Insider Transactions
0
0 USD
Cumulative Transactions Amount
Period Sold Bought Net
3 Months
N/A
N/A
N/A
6 Months
N/A
N/A
N/A
9 Months
N/A
N/A
N/A
12 Months
N/A
N/A
N/A
Why is insider trading important?

Shareholder Return

AAP Return Decomposition
Main factors of price return

Market capitalization of AAP shares decreased by 24.79% over the past 5 years. The primary factor behind the change was a decrease in net margin from 5.7% to 4.5%, leading to a drop in the market capitalization of Advance Auto Parts Inc by 20.26%.

Period
5 Years
1 Year 2 Years 3 Years 5 Years 7 Years 10 Years

Market capitalization of AAP shares decreased by 24.79% over the past 5 years. The primary factor behind the change was a decrease in net margin from 5.7% to 4.5%, leading to a drop in the market capitalization of Advance Auto Parts Inc by 20.26%.

-24.79%
8.8B 6.6B
Market Cap Growth
-19.23%
16.5 13.2
P/E Change
-5.56%
535M 502M
Earnings Growth
Market Cap Growth
-24.79%
P/E Change
-19.23%
Earnings Growth
-5.56%
What is price return decomposition?

AAP Price
Advance Auto Parts Inc

1M 1M
-11%
6M 6M
-24%
1Y 1Y
-38%
3Y 3Y
-14%
5Y 5Y
-6%
10Y 10Y
+50%
Annual Price Range
112.2
52w Low
109.46
52w High
203.41
Price Metrics
Average Annual Return 19.08%
Standard Deviation of Annual Returns 24.92%
Max Drawdown -59%
Shares Statistics
Market Capitalization 6.6B USD
Shares Outstanding 59 623 000
Percentage of Shares Shorted 4.15%

Company Profile

Advance Auto Parts Inc Logo
Advance Auto Parts Inc

Country

United States of America

Industry

Retail

Market Cap

6.6B USD

Dividend Yield

5.35%

Description

Advance Auto Parts, Inc. engages in the supply and distribution of aftermarket automotive products for both professional installers and do-it-yourself customers. The company is headquartered in Raleigh, North Carolina and currently employs 41,000 full-time employees. The company went IPO on 2001-11-29. The firm's stores and branches offer a selection of brand name, original equipment manufacturer (OEM) and private label automotive replacement parts, accessories, batteries and maintenance items for domestic and imported cars, vans, sport utility vehicles and light and heavy duty trucks. The company operates through five segments: Northern Division, Southern Division, Carquest Canada, Independents and Worldpac. The company operates approximately 4,706 total stores and 266 branches primarily under the trade names: Advance Auto Parts, Autopart International, Carquest and Worldpac. The firm offers products under categories, including parts & batteries, accessories & chemicals and engine maintenance.

Contact

NORTH CAROLINA
Raleigh
4200 Six Forks Road
+15403624911.0
https://shop.advanceautoparts.com/

IPO

2001-11-29

Employees

41 000

Officers

Pres, CEO & Director
Mr. Thomas R. Greco
Exec. VP & CFO
Mr. Jeffrey W. Shepherd
Exec. VP of Merchandising, Marketing & E-Commerce
Mr. Jason B. McDonell
Exec. VP of Professional
Mr. Robert B. Cushing
Exec. VP of Supply Chain
Mr. Reuben E. Slone
Co-Founder and Chief Exec. Officer of Regis HR
Mr. Carlos A. Saladrigas CPA
Show More
Sr. VP, Controller & Chief Accounting Officer
Mr. William J. Pellicciotti Jr.
Exec. VP & CTO
Mr. Sri Donthi
Sr. VP of Communications, Investor Relations, & Community Affairs
Ms. Elisabeth Eisleben
Exec. VP, Gen. Counsel & Corp. Sec.
Ms. Tammy Moss Finley
Show Less

See Also

Summary
AAP intrinsic value, competitors valuation, and company profile.
DCF Valuation
AAP stock valuation using Discount Cash Flow valuation method.
Relative Valuation
AAP stock valuation using valuation multiples.
Wall Street Estimates
AAP price targets and financial estimates made by Wall st analysts.
Profitability Analysis
Detailed analysis of the company's profitability.
Solvency Analysis
Analysis of the financial position and solvency of the company.
Financials
Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow Statement.
Discount Rate
AAP stock discount rate: cost of equity and WACC.
Summary
DCF Valuation
Relative Valuation
Wall Street Estimates
Profitability Analysis
Solvency Analysis
Financials
Discount Rate
Similar Stocks
What is the Intrinsic Value of one AAP stock?

The intrinsic value of one AAP stock under the Base Case scenario is 176.74 USD.

Is AAP stock undervalued or overvalued?

Compared to the current market price of 112.2 USD, Advance Auto Parts Inc is Undervalued by 37%.

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