Daqo New Energy Corp

NYSE:DQ

Earnings Call Transcript

[Operator]

Good day, and welcome to the Daqo New Energy Fourth Quarter 2024 Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Jesse Zhao. Please go ahead.

[Jessie Zhao, executive]

Hello, everyone. I'm Jessie Zhao, the Investor Relations of Daqo New Energy. Thank you for joining our conference call today. Daqo New Energy just issued its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2024, which can be found on our website at www.dqsolar.com. Today, attending the conference call, we have our Chairman and CEO, Mr. Xiang Xu; our Deputy CEO, Ms. Anita Zhu; our CFO, Mr. Ming Yang; and myself. Mr. Xu is on a business trip now, so he will make a brief introduction followed by Ms. Anita Zhu on our management remarks. Today's call will begin with an update from Ms. Zhu, our management -- our market conditions and the company's operations, and then Mr. Ming Yang will discuss the company's financial performance for the quarter and the year. After that, we will open the floor to Q&A from the audience. Before we begin the formal remarks, I would like to remind you that certain statements on today's call, including expected future operational and financial performance and industry growth are forward-looking statements that are made under the safe harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, and these statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statements. Further information regarding these and other risks is included in the reports or documents we have filed with or furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission. These statements only reflect our current and preliminary view as of today and may be subject to change. Our ability to achieve these projections is subject to risks and uncertainties. All information provided in today's call is as of today, and we undertake no duty to update such information, except as required under applicable law. Also during the call, we will occasionally reference monetary amounts in U.S. dollar terms. Please keep in mind that our functional currency is the Chinese RMB. We offer these translations into U.S. dollars solely for the convenience of the audience. Now I will turn the call to our Chairman and CEO, Mr. Xiang Xu.

[Xiang Xu, executive]

Hello, everyone. This is Xu Zhang, the CEO of Dark New Energy. We appreciate you joining us for the conference call today. Anita, go ahead.

[Anita Zhu, executive]

Okay. Thank you, Mr. Xu. Hello, everyone. This is Anita Zhu. Thank you for joining our conference call today. And I'll now deliver the management remarks on behalf of Mr. Xu. So in 2024, we faced a challenging market environment with excess capacity in the solar PV industry, leading to sharp price declines across the entire value chain. We proactively managed these difficulties by curtailing polysilicon production to reduce cash burn, particularly in the third and fourth quarters. Nevertheless, we reached an annual polysilicon production volume of 20568 metric tons in 2024, meeting our guidance of 200,000 metric tons to 210,000 metric tons, which represented an increase of 3.7% year-over-year compared to 197831 metric tons in 2023. Our N-type product mix increased significantly from approximately 40% of total production in 2023 to 70% in 2024. And we sold 181,362 metric tons in 2024, ending the year at a reasonable inventory level. Despite slower growing demand for solar PV products globally, the mismatch between demand and supply drove prices lower in 2024, even below cash cost. Overall, our polysilicon ASPs decreased significantly from USD 11.48 per kilogram in 2023 to USD 5.66 per kilogram in 2024. And revenue came in at USD 1 billion compared to USD 2.3 billion in 2023 as a result of lower ASPs as well as lower sales volume. As polysilicon ASPs fell below production cost starting in the second quarter of 2024, we recorded a noncash provision for inventory impairment expense with a negative gross margin of 20.7% for 2024. Due to the continuous negative gross margin, we recorded a noncash long-lived asset impairment charge of USD 175.6 million for the quarter related to our older polysilicon production line. Despite the losses, Daqo New Energy continued to maintain a strong balance sheet and ample cash reserves. At the end of 2024, the company had a cash balance of USD 1 billion, short-term investments of USD 10 million, bank notes receivables, USD 55 million and a fixed-term bank deposit balance of USD 1.1 billion. Overall, the company maintains a strong liquidity with a balance of quick assets of USD 2.2 billion, which can be readily converted to cash if needed. This solid financial position ensures we are well equipped to navigate the market downturn and remain strategically resilient. On the operational front, during the fourth quarter, the company continued to operate at a lower utilization rate of 40% to 50% of our nameplate capacity in light of weak market prices. The total production volume at our 2 polysilicon facilities for the quarter was 34,236 metric tons, further decreasing from the third quarter by 9,356 metric tons. Meanwhile, we intensified our efforts to reduce inventory and our sales volume reached 42,191 metric tons in the fourth quarter compared to 42,101 metric tons in the previous quarter. As a result of lower utilization, idle facility-related cost for the quarter was approximately USD 1.02 per kilogram, which was primarily related to noncash depreciation expense. Overall polysilicon unit production costs edged up 3% sequentially to an average of USD 6.81 per kilo. However, thanks to our relentless efforts to improve operational efficiency, our cash cost declined further to USD 5.04 per kilogram. A 6% quarter-over-quarter decline compared to USD 5.34 per kilogram in the third quarter. Due to the current market pricing environment, we currently expect total polysilicon production volume in the first quarter of 2025 to be approximately 25,000 metric tons to 28,000 metric tons. We plan to maintain a relatively low utilization rate in 2025 until a turning point emerges in the sector. As a result, we currently anticipate full year production volume in 2025 to be approximately 110,000 metric tons to 140,000 metric tons. Discussions on industry self-regulation measures have been ongoing since the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, the polysilicon market remains sluggish heading into the quarter as downstream customers continue drawing down accumulated inventory and coping with lower wafer capacity utilization rates of approximately 50%. Polysilicon pricing remained stable within the cyclical bottom range of RMB 36 to RMB 42 per kilogram throughout the quarter. In November and December, leading poly producers reduced production to offset the higher hydroelectricity costs during the winter season and to mitigate inventory risks. As such, industry production in polysilicon continued to decline month-over-month. According to industry statistics, the total production volume in China suspended to approximately 100,000 metric tons per month in December, the lowest level in the year. On December 26, polysilicon futures trading officially launched with the initial benchmark price set at RMB 38.6 per kilogram. Although some prices were quoted higher at RMB 42 to RMB 43 per kilogram, future trading volume remained small and had limited impact on spot pricing. On a positive note, new solar PV capacity in China reached a record high of 68 gigawatts in December, which was beyond expectations and reinforce market confidence in the resilience of solar PV in the short run and market potential in the medium to long term. Despite the significant challenges resulting from overcapacity in the solar PV industry, we have seen proactive initiatives to restore the industry's healthy development. On December 6, 2024, led by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, our company, along with other major solar PV manufacturers have reached consensus that implementing sales discipline would be fundamental to mitigating the irrational competition amid falling prices and heightened global trade pressures. Moreover, the solar PV industry continues to show strong demand prospects. For the year 2024, China's newly installed solar PV capacity grew 28% year-over-year to 277 gigawatts, which not only hit a record high, but also exceeded market expectations. We remain optimistic that as supply adjusts to more rational levels, we'll see a better balance between supply and demand this year. In the long run, as a renewable energy source and one of the lowest cost sources of electricity worldwide, solar power continue to be a key driver of the global energy transition and sustainable development. Looking ahead, Daqo New Energy will capitalize on the long-term growth in the global solar PV market and strengthen its competitive edge by enhancing its higher efficiency N-type technology and optimizing its cost structure through digital transformation and AI adoption. As one of the world's lowest cost producers with the highest quality N-type products, a strong balance sheet and no financial debt, we believe we're well positioned to weather the current market downturn and emerge as one of the leaders in the industry to capture future growth. So now I will turn the call to our CFO, Mr. Ming Yan, who will discuss the company's financial performance for the quarter. Ming, please go ahead.

[Ming Yang, executive]

Thank you, Anita, and hello, everyone. This is Ming Yang, CFO of Daqo New Energy. We appreciate you joining our earnings conference call today. I will first go over the company's fourth quarter 2024 financial performance, then follow with our full year 2024 financial results. Revenues were $195.4 million compared to $198.5 million in the third quarter of 2024 and $476.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2023. The decrease in revenue compared to the third quarter of 2024 was primarily due to a decrease in ASP, mitigated by an increase in sales volume. Gross loss was $65.3 million compared to $60.6 million in the third quarter of 2024 and gross profit of $87.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2023. Gross margin was negative 33% compared to negative 30.5% in the third quarter of 2024 and 18.3% in the fourth quarter of 2023. The decrease in gross margin compared to the third quarter of 2024 was mainly due to the decrease in average selling prices. Selling, general and administrative expense were $29.4 million compared to $37.7 million in the third quarter of 2024 and $39 million in the fourth quarter of 2023. SG&A expenses during the fourth quarter of 2024 included $14.9 million in noncash share-based compensation expense compared to the company's -- related to the company's share incentive plan compared to $18.9 million in the third quarter of 2024. The company recognized $18.1 million in noncash expense related to allowance for expected credit loss of receivables in the fourth quarter, mainly due to uncertainty on the recoverability of long-aged receivables. The company recognized $175.6 million in fixed asset impairment loss, mainly related to its older polysilicon production lines in the fourth quarter of 2023 due to the continuous downtrend in the polysilicon selling prices that impaired the recoverability of current amounts of these assets. R&D expenses were $0.4 million compared to $0.8 million in the third quarter of 2024 and $3.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2023. R&D expenses reflect R&D activities that take place during the quarter and can vary from period to period. As a result of the above mentioned, loss from operations was $300.9 million compared to $98 million in the third quarter of 2024 and income from operations of $83.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2023. Operating margin was negative 154% compared to negative 49% in the third quarter of 2024 and 17.5% in the fourth quarter of 2023. Net loss attributable to Daqo New Energy shareholders was $180 million compared to $60 million in the third quarter of 2024 and net income of $53.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2023. Loss per basic ADS was $2.71 compared to $0.92 in the third quarter of 2024 and income per ADS of $0.76 in the fourth quarter of 2023. Adjusted net loss attributable to Daqo New Energy shareholders, excluding noncash share-based compensation costs, was $170.6 million compared to $39.4 million in the third quarter of 2024 and adjusted net income of $74 million in the fourth quarter of 2023. Adjusted loss per basic ADS was $2.56 compared to $0.59 in the third quarter of 2024 and adjusted earnings per basic ADS of $1.06 in the fourth quarter of 2023. EBITDA was negative $236 million compared to negative $34 million in the third quarter of 2024 and $128.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2023. EBITDA margin was negative 121% compared to negative 17% in the third quarter of 2024 and 26.9% in the fourth quarter of 2023. Now I will go over the company's full year 2024 financial results. Revenues were $1.03 billion compared to $2.3 billion in 2023. The decrease was primarily due to lower polysilicon average selling prices and further compounded by lower sales volume. Gross loss was $212.9 million compared to gross profit of $920.7 million in 2023. Gross margin was negative 20.7% compared to 39.9% in 2023. The decrease in gross profit was primarily due to lower ASP and inventory impairment. For the year of 2024, the company recorded $81.4 million in inventory impairment expenses compared to $0.5 million in 2023. SG&A expenses were $143.1 million compared to $213.2 million in 2023. The decrease was primarily due to the reduction in noncash share-based compensation costs related to the company's share incentive plan, which was $72.4 million and $121 million in 2024 and 2023, respectively. The company recognized $175.6 million in fixed asset impairment loss mainly related to its older plastic facilities in 2024. R&D expenses were $4.6 million compared to $10.1 million in 2023. And as a result of the foregoing, loss from operations were $564 million compared to income from operations of $783.4 million in 2023. Operating margin was negative 54.8% compared to 33.9% in 2023. Net interest income was $29.4 million compared to $52.3 million in 2023. The decrease in interest income was primarily due to lower cash and bank balance as well as lower bank interest rate. Net loss attributable to Daqo New Energy shareholders was $345 million compared to net income of $429.5 million in 2023. Loss per basic ADS were $5.22 compared to earnings per basic ADS of $5.75 in 2023. Adjusted net loss attributable to Daqo New Energy shareholders was $272.8 million compared to $563 million in 2023. Adjusted loss per basic ADS were $4.12 compared to adjusted earnings per basic ADS of $7.54. EBITDA was negative $338 million compared to $918.6 million in 2023. EBITDA margin was negative 32.9% compared to 39.8% in 2023. Now on the company's financial condition. As of December 31, 2024, the company had $1.038 billion in cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash compared to $853.4 million as of September 30, 2024, and $3.05 billion as of December 31, 2023. And as of December 31, 2024, the note receivable balance was $55.2 million compared to $84.5 million as of September 30, 2024, and $116.4 million as of December 31, 2023. Notes receivable balance represent bank notes with maturity within 6 months. And as of December 31, 2024, the balance of fixed term deposits within 1 year was $1.087 billion compared to $1.215 billion as of September 30, 2024, and none as of December 31, 2023. Now on the company's cash flows. For the 12 months ended December 31, 2024, net cash used by operating activities was $37.7 million compared to $1.6 billion provided by operating activities in the same period of 2023. The decrease was primarily due to lower revenues and gross margin. For the 12 months ended December 31, 2024, net cash used in investing activities was 1.478 billion compared to 1.196 billion in the same period of 2023. The net cash used in investing activities in 2024 was primarily related to capital expenditures on the company's 5A and 5B polysilicon expansion projects in Balto City in Mongolia and purchases of short-term investments and fixed-term deposits. For the 12 months ended December 31, 2024, net cash used in financing activities was $47.4 million compared to $795 million in the same period of 2023. Net cash used in financing activities in 2024 was primarily related to $35.8 million in dividend payments made by the company's subsidiary, Xinjiang.co to its minority shareholders. And that concludes our prepared remarks. We will now open the call to Q&A from the audience. Operator, please begin.

[Operator]

We will now begin the question and answer session. The first question today comes from Alan Hong with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

[Alan Hong, analyst]

I have like three questions here. The first question is, I would like to know the reason for the how is the cash spend in fourth quarter last year? On Vitality, it seems like we have spent around RMB0.2 billion cash in fourth quarter. We like to have a billion of the break down. My second question is I would like to hear management's thoughts on the pricing outlook in the next two quarters. And the number three question is, I mean, like there's been like various news talking about potential policy intervention to suppress the industry capacity kind of like a supply side reform. I would like to hear your own thoughts on this. Thank you.

[Ming Yang, executive]

So, Alan, we're going to look at the numbers really quick.

[Alan Hong, analyst]

Thank you.

[Anita Zhu, executive]

Okay. Alan, thank you for your questions. Maybe I'll talk about the pricing outlook first before Minh answers your first question. So I think in the short run, we are likely to see poly prices to increase in the next couple of months, at least before the end of the second quarter twenty twenty five. Like I talked about in the commentary section, starting the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four, the industry has initiated several discussions on self regulation that would potentially cap the overall production volume. So right now the overall industry utilization rate is roughly around 50% across all. And as a result, based on industry statistics, we have seen domestic poly supply to drop starting from December. So in December, the overall production volume is around 104,000 metric tons. And in January, it has even lowered to 97,000 tons. And while wafer supply in Jan is only about 45 gigawatts, which is roughly equivalent or I should say supply is slightly lower than demand. So we expect supply to be in the range of 90,000 to 100,000 at least until May, primarily driven by the seasonality effect of hydroelectricity power, which will be relatively high during the low wind season up until May. And as of last week, the domestic industry inventory in the poly sector is around 250,000 tonnes and also about 200,000 at the end or wafer manufacturers level. So we believe the poly inventory will remain high throughout 2025, but would reduce gradually in the next few months, leading to a potential poly price upside in the second quarter. And another catalyst to mention for a price uptick is the new regulations that have been talked about the market reform, which would lead to potential front loading. So in the first quarter, the NDRC and also the National Energy Administration actually released new policies on distributed solar installations and also on the renewable power tariff reform. So we would see a distributed solar regulation to take effect on May 1 and also the market based on gas pricing to be implemented for all new renewable projects starting from June 1. So we expect to see some potential front loading, especially because there this imposes uncertainty to the yield of new projects starting from June 1. So as we see higher -- therefore, we expect to see higher visibility industry inventory depletion and potential uptick in price across the value chain, at least in the first half of 2025. But demand in the second half of 2025 and onwards appears to be somewhat more challenging. There are not enough new application scenarios or alternative business models to determine the new solar project returns. So in the midterm to the more longer term, we think that the overall industry utilization would remain around 40% to 50%, especially as the corporates are complying to the self to maintain or to promote a more healthy development of the industry. So price would likely linger in the range of RMB 40 to RMB 45 for N-type and RMB 37 to RMB 40 for type. So we see more clear turning point in the industry. I hope that answers your question.

[Alan Hong, analyst]

So you say 45 to 50 for N type is your expectation?

[Anita Zhu, executive]

For the more midterm. So up until, I would say, the second half or until the end of this year.

[Alan Hong, analyst]

Got it. Yes. So the next question is on the supply side reform and also like the cash consumption in fourth quarter.

[Ming Yang, executive]

Okay. I think if you look at cash consumption, right, so I think about roughly $80 million is related to operations or spend on the operations and then roughly $40 million is related to the CapEx. And then the remaining is mainly related to changes in the balance sheet items between operating assets and operating liability. So these are the main ones.

[Alan Hong, analyst]

Got it. And the last question I have is I would like to hear your thoughts on how the government may conduct a price reform in our industry.

[Ming Yang, executive]

Okay. I think from our understanding is right now, the National Energy Administration and in partnership with the Ministry of Industry and Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission, I think combined, they're looking at how to extend the losses within the industry, right? I think previously, they were looking at how would the sales discipline framework would work. And I believe thus far, they're not too pleased with it in terms of the results. So it looks like it might be likely that they might come forth with certain type of policy. We don't know what that policy looks like yet. I mean it might be some combination of capping production, some kind of production quota and I think retiring inefficient capacity or older technology and things like that. So I think we are yet to see what the policy looks like. I believe that's still being discussed and being formed. But it might look like some of their former policies related to this, for example, what has happened in aluminum.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Phil Shen with ROTH Capital. There seems to be some issues with Phil's line. The next question comes from Mengwen Wang with Goldman Sachs.

[Mengwen Wang, analyst]

So my first question is about the turning point you mentioned. So as Anita said that you expect poly price hike is likely to sustain until end of the second quarter. So what's the exact turning point we are looking for in order to raise our production? Yes. And also, if it will be great if you can elaborate more on the basis that we come to our production target. Is it the so-called production quota assigned to us or it's simply because we are more bearish on the demand outlook?

[Anita Zhu, executive]

Sure. Thank you, Meng. So for your first question, it's very difficult for us to estimate the exact timing of the turning point because -- in 2024, if we look at the broader picture, the total polysilicon production volume actually reached 1.8 million metric tons and the nameplate capacity of every sector on the main value chain has reached on average over 1,200 gigawatts. So for poly, the nameplate production capacity of all completed projects regardless of whether it has been temporarily shut down or never started initial production actually exceeded 1,400 gigawatts, which is roughly 2.2 million metric tons. That's more than double of demand. And if we look at the outlook for 2025, based on industry forecast, we see that global demand would actually be in the range of 550 to 600 gigawatts. And from that, we expect China solar installation to in the range of 250 to 300 gigawatts, which would be roughly equivalent to 1.4 million to 1.6 million metric tons of poly demand. So if we take these numbers into consideration, it's not difficult to see that it will be a somewhat more prolonged cycle to rebalance the current overcapacity or oversupply in the entire industry. So we would either need to see a stronger demand or a more rapid rebalancing in terms of supply. And in terms of our production target, we have decided to maintain a relatively low utilization rate on the backdrop of binding to the self-regulation measures. that has been led by the CTIA as well as considering our own strategic own strategy to cap our cash burn in 2025.

[Mengwen Wang, analyst]

Yes, sure. So just to follow up, what's the current utilization rate in our Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia capacity? And since we plan to maintain the utilization rate at a low level for the whole year, will we consider to shut down our Xindong base because the Inner Mongolia base alone is more than enough, right, to meet the production target?

[Anita Zhu, executive]

We have decided to open both our Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia based on our own strategies, of course, because we also have to take into account our employees in both facilities as well as our obligation for -- in order to fulfill our social responsibility to the community. But I guess you're correct in terms of further lowering our utilization rate, but that will be contingent upon market development. If demand is worse than we expected, then we might consider to our utilization rate, but also considering -- we need to see the balance between fixed cost and a number of factors before we..

[Operator]

The next question comes from Phil Shen with ROTH Capital.

[Phil Shen, analyst]

Hey guys, hopefully this is better now. Can you hear me okay?

[Ming Yang, executive]

Yes. Now it's great, yes.

[Phil Shen, analyst]

So the audio was a little bit unclear for me earlier. So apologies if some of these questions have been asked. As a follow-up to the first questioner on the supply side reform, I heard your answer that there could be some kind of policy put in place, but you don't know what it looks like yet. Do you have a sense of the timing of when the policy could be released? Is it soon? Or is it maybe much later in the year?

[Ming Yang, executive]

Obviously, it's uncertain with regard to timing of the policy. China will have its high-level central government committee meeting coming up in early March. We believe from what we heard, it could be around that time that -- because that's the time when the government announces a lot of their policy, for example, economic policy and government policy. So that's one possible time line in early March or it could be later. We don't know yet, yes. But all we know is that they are in discussion and they are quarantined.

[Phil Shen, analyst]

Great. And so -- and they would release the supply side framework for not just poly, right, but also every step in the supply chain.

[Ming Yang, executive]

For the entire solar industry, yes.

[Phil Shen, analyst]

Okay. Great. And then from a pricing standpoint, I may have missed this, but can you share what kind of pricing you expect for Q1? Should it be similar to Q4? And then do you expect poly pricing to adjust slightly higher as we get into the back half of 2025? What's the cadence of price for polysilicon Q1 through 4?

[Anita Zhu, executive]

 Thank you, Phil. So I mentioned about in the beginning of the Q&A session, we believe that in the near term, poly prices will somewhat pick up slightly type will be more on the higher range of the RMB 40 to RMB 45. But going to the second half of the quarter because we're likely to see some front loading for June driven by the renewable power tariff reform and the new policies on installation due to the uncertain yield of new projects, the only certainty is to get installed for June 1. So we believe that we might see a stronger demand in the first half compared to the second half. And hence, overall in the second half of the year, price for N-type would be in the range of RMB 40 to RMB 45, maybe more on the lower end and RMB...

[Phil Shen, analyst]

Okay. Anita, it was a little bit hard to hear you. Can you speak closer to the microphone? Did you say in the first half it's 40 to 45 and in the back half it might be 37%?

[Anita Zhu, executive]

So I would say in the first half, it's more on the higher range of 45. But in the second half, we'll be more on the lower range.

[Phil Shen, analyst]

And you're much clearer now.

[Anita Zhu, executive]

Okay. And P type will be around 37 to 40. But of course that would also be contingent upon whether there will be additional supply coming out after May.

[Phil Shen, analyst]

Right. Meaning more production from other players?

[Anita Zhu, executive]

Yes, especially because we're going to the rain season. So the hydroelectricity power tariff would drop significantly compared to where it is right now.

[Phil Shen, analyst]

So okay. So we have a sense for pricing now. We've talked about supply side reform. What about on the demand side? We've seen some changes recently to the feed-in tariff outlook and that's going away. And with the load growth in China, there seems to be based on some of my industry sources, there could be an upside surprise to demand. Are you seeing that yet or the potential for that? And if so, how do you expect that to play out through the year?

[Anita Zhu, executive]

So like I talked about previously, we think that -- or based on industry forecast, we have also seen global demand to be in the range of 550 to 600 gigawatts. And from that, we expect China solar installation to be in the range of 250 to 300 gigawatts. And that would be relatively stable in terms of year-over-year growth compared to 277 gigawatts in 2024, primarily because we think the installation of utility scale has peaked in the short run. We would need to see a more structural reform either in the grid system or a frequency modulation control to optimize the system such as the development of energy storage before demand can further boost. And for distributed installations, we think that the market-oriented reform poses the biggest uncertainty to the yields of new projects and hence, the pace of installation was somewhat slowdown after June 4. Before we see more transparency on the regulation, of course, because although it has been released by NDRC and the NEA for the new regulation, they actually delegated the specific details to provincial levels. So we will need to see from that level what the local government -- what the specific plans will look like from the provincial levels before end of 2025. And we think that besides the Chinese market, international demand will primarily come from emerging markets. So for instance, like Latin America, Middle East, Africa, et cetera, because they have the big potential for renewable energy due to the rapid growth in electricity demand. So for instance, Saudi Arabia's goal is to have renewable account for 50% of energy composition by 2030. So they plan to have a newly installed 20 gigawatts of solar from 2024 onwards. And beside the emerging markets, we think that for the U.S. will be somewhat stagnant, primarily because after Trump has been elected, he has signed several executive orders, for instance, delaying or suspended the IRA subsidy and also halting the -- exiting the Paris Agreement. So we think that in the U.S., the renewable energy would be pivoted towards supporting the fossil fuel industry.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Alan Lang with Jefferies.

[Alan Lang, analyst]

So I would like to come to some of the details in the financials. So actually, the cash cost of the production in 4Q has lower to almost RMB 35 per kilogram. I would like to know if there's any further room of -- to come down and the reason of that because is it because there was some impairment in cost, which brings down the COGS or this RMB 35 per kilogram actually fairly reflects the cash cost of the company?

[Ming Yang, executive]

Alan, this is Ming. I would say that the current RMB 35 per kilogram is reflective of the company's current cash cost. Okay. I think cash cost reduction come from a number of points, including a better manufacturing efficiency and then cost savings on material procurement. But in particular, right, as reduced production, I think now the productions are primarily focused in our most efficient manufacturing facility, both in Xinjiang and in Mongolia. So these have lower electricity usage per unit production, for example. So I think that's why we saw the cash cost reduction. I think right now, our outlook for Q1 is cash cost should remain at the current level or maybe just slightly lower, but not too much lower. That's our current expectation.

[Alan Lang, analyst]

I see that's clear. And another question -- sorry.

[Ming Yang, executive]

Yes, I think similar to Q4, maybe just slightly lower than Q4.

[Alan Lang, analyst]

I see. Another question is in regards to FBR because one of the major peers has also got around 10,000 tons of kind of pilot lines got environmental approvals. So I would like to listen on your views on the technology? And would you also explore into certain lines for FBR? And what's your view on the cash cost of RMB 28?

[Anita Zhu, executive]

So first of all, it's hard for us to comment on our competitors' cash cost. But I could give more color on our own strategy, of course. So I think that we definitely respect innovation in industry, but modified Siemens process has been refined over decades and has delivered proven cost efficiency, scalability and high-quality polysilicon, which is critical to meeting our customer specifications. And we have also consistently worked towards further lowering our cost through technology improvements, such as lowering our energy consumption, our silicon powder consumption, et cetera, so we can position competitively in this cyclical market. And we definitely acknowledge the clear advantage of SBR, which would be lower energy consumption and I guess, hence, lower cost, which makes it easier to get relevant carbon footprint certifications in the future. But we still believe that SBR has its inherent risks such as its purity challenges. It's still not possible to use 100% SBR in downstream production. So there is a maximum blend percentage when you are trying to produce in the downstream sectors. There's also a challenge associated with hydrogen displacement during the deposition process and also hydrogen retention leading to potential defects or degraded risks. And also the process instability caused by things like the reactor clogging, maybe the uneven silicon deposition can also lead to increased downtime. But that being said, we are not complacent. So our R&D team and I would like to highlight that we also established our research center inner Mongolia last quarter in 2024, which will continue to evaluate all innovations and maybe more on the emerging technologies that could potentially be transformative in the future, including the SBR in order to assess the long-term viability of different technologies. And I think -- I believe that should there be other technologies or FBR that demonstrate clear sustainable advantages without compromising the product quality, we will consider the different process as well. But for now, our strategy remains centered on leveraging our existing strengths. So our operational excellence, our customer trust and also our financial strength to navigate this market dynamics amid this market down cycle.

[Alan Lang, analyst]

Understood -- so basically, there's no concrete plans in pursuing FBR for now, right?

[Anita Zhu, executive]

There's no concrete plans, but we are also doing our research, of course. We are keeping an eye on all sorts of technologies. That could be potentially transformative in the future.

[Alan Lang, analyst]

Understood. So another question is, I recall there was $100 million buyback announced last year. I wonder if when the company thinks it would be appropriate to start the buyback? And is there any consideration in selling down your Asia platform as well in order to fund the buyback in the U.S. platform?

[Anita Zhu, executive]

No, I think for the $100 million share buyback, we are still keeping an eye and closely monitoring the market dynamics. I think like we mentioned before, we were more conservative and waiting to see when a turning point would emerge. But I think based on the recent news and our assessment of the market environment, we would like to -- we are still closely monitoring when would be a good timing to start repurchasing. But for selling down our A shares and potentially buying back on the U.S. ADRs to close down this gap in terms of the huge differences in valuation, we have definitely considered such plans. However, after the new regulation rolled out on selling down our A shares, which was announced in May last year, should your share price be trading below your issue price, which would be 21.49 for us, it's somewhat more difficult to pursue such plan, which is why we announced to extend our voluntary -- selling down back in our lockup, yes, in January.

[Alan Lang, analyst]

I see. So -- but I think from an industry perspective, you would still like to see there is a turning point before you commit for the buyback, right?

[Anita Zhu, executive]

Yes. Yes. Because we think this cycle will somewhat be prolonged as our competitors are also -- have strength in terms of stronger, I guess, shareholder background and also we haven't heard things like we're calling back the loan. So I think it's still early stage right now, but we're definitely keeping an eye and monitoring the market dynamics and decide when would be the good timing to start with.

[Alan Lang, analyst]

And my last question is about the 2025 production guidance. It appears to be less than 50% of utilization rate? If you think about the capacity of the company is close to 300,000 and seems slightly lower than the numbers out in the -- after the December CBIA meeting. So I would like to know if it is coherent with the supply side self-discipline initiative because there's a lower estimated demand in 1Q. So the production is lower in 1Q, but like is this basically the number you have in the self-discipline agreement?

[Anita Zhu, executive]

I think from the self-disciplined measures, they basically -- overall, they would have a quota for the company based on your shipping volume as well as your nameplate capacity as of now. And that's more like a maximum cap of the level of production that you can produce for the entire year. We haven't heard anything such as punishment associated with producing lower than the quota. And we have actually made our target for 2025 based on our own company strategy while complying to the self-regulation measures. I think our primary goal in 2025 is to maintain a level that would meet our customer demand while capping or reducing our cash burn in the entire year.

[Alan Lang, analyst]

I see. I see. So basically, it's like -- could say that if demand there's a possibility to further increase a bit on the production if the demand really beats expectation?

[Anita Zhu, executive]

Yes, yes. That's the guidance as we assess the market conditions right now. But there is a possibility of potentially increasing our utilization rate should the market demand become stronger than we expect.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Zihui Hu with CICC.

[Zihui Hu, analyst]

This is Zihui Hu from CICC. My first question is whether we participate in poly futures trading now and how the plan is? And my second question is, what's the current inventory level of company?

[Anita Zhu, executive]

I'll answer the first question and answer the second question. So in terms of the futures market, in the fourth quarter last year, we've already registered a label for the futures market and obtained relevant approvals. So we are among the first batch of manufacturers to be able to participate in the futures market. But after the futures market comes online in December last year, the registered brands generally quoted above RMB 45, but the listing price was relatively low at RMB 38.6 when it just opened. So I would say it's more of a capital game right now. And the main contract, which is the June 25 has an average daily trading volume of about 10,000 lots, which is not a lot. So the overall market pool is still relatively small right now. And as is trading at around 43 to 44.5, I believe, it has not yet met our expectations. And I would say the willingness for us to participate is still relatively weak at the moment. And in fact, I believe for other players, I think right now, it's more preferable to transact with futures merchant to directly exploit the hedging opportunities. But that being said, we're definitely monitoring the progress of the market and waiting to see a more detailed guidelines on how to participate and see whether it would be a good strategy that fits our overall company strategy to take advantage of the future hedging.

[Ming Yang, executive]

So the current sellable inventory for polysilicon for the company is less than 20,000 metric tons per month, and there is a decline of close to 10,000 metric tons compared to the end of last quarter. So this is improving rapidly, I would say, and it's continuing to come down as well.

[Operator]

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to management for any closing remarks.

[Jessie Zhao, executive]

Thank you, everyone, again for participating in today's conference call. Should you have any further questions, please don't hesitate to contact us. Thank you, and have an awesome day. Goodbye.

[Operator]

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.