ABG Sundal Collier Holding ASA

OSE:ABG

Earnings Call Transcript

[Jonas Strom, Chief Executive Officer]

Okay. Good morning all, and welcome to ABG Sundal Collier's Q4 and Full Year 2021 Results presentation. Before we kick off, I would like to introduce my co-presenter, Peter Straume, our CEO and Managing Partner for our Norwegian operations, and as always, we are also joined by our CFO, Geir Olsen. [Operator Instructions]Well, it is a great pleasure to present the strongest-ever results in the history of the firm with revenues just shy of NOK 3 billion, which is an increase of more than 50%. Q4 specifically ended up just north of NOK 800 million, only moderately behind the incredible Q4 last year. Even though the absolute revenue number in Q4 was a touch below 2021 versus 2020, I think the quality of the revenues this year is higher with a significantly more diversified revenue base with stronger contribution from all geographies, all products, sectors, and I think that our revenue base has never been more well diversified than now looking back at the firm's history.During 2021, we completed more than 170 transactions and raised some NOK 200 billion in capital for our clients. Looking back at the year, Sweden stood out as our strongest growth market with ABG gaining ground versus peers, especially in equity capital markets. We still see further room for growth in terms of market shares and continue to believe that revenues from Sweden will surpass the revenue contribution for Norway as the Swedish market is larger. Our target is to grow our DCM and M&A business in Sweden and firm-wide, but especially we see market shares to be gained in Sweden and to reach the same position as ECM.Our position in Norway has never been stronger and revenues have never been more well diversified across sectors and products. This signals a well-balanced business model that is more resilient to cyclical movements than ever before.I would also like to highlight the progression in our Danish operations with our team delivering the best results ever in Denmark.On the back of the record strong results, the Board has proposed a dividend at NOK 1 per share reflect -- and I will revert to this point specifically later on in the presentation.And finally, the transaction pipeline, as mentioned, is more well diversified and stronger than it was at the same time last year.So let's flip slide and look more specifically into the numbers. We touched upon the revenue number at NOK 2.9 billion and NOK 803 million in the quarter specifically. And we are running this business as it is our own, which partly is true. In fact, we are not losing our heads in good times, and we still take great pride in our cost discipline. This is contributing to operating margins, continuing to strengthen from already healthy levels in 2020 to 36% for the full year, proving the leverage of our business model.Looking at fully diluted earnings per share, including shares to be issued to partners having acquired shares on forward contracts, the year ended up at NOK 1.39 per share, an increase of 78% versus last year.Okay. Next slide, please. Yes. Of course, we have delivered this set of results with the help from strong capital markets. Needless to say, especially within equity capital markets, even though the year ended on a slightly softer note in equity capital markets on the back of inflation fears starting to picture somewhat. Having said that, debt capital markets and M&A continued to grow during the year. And on the equity capital markets, we still see demand for equity capital market transactions, albeit more selectively and potentially in more traditional sectors than before.With that, I leave the word over to Peter Straume, who will talk more about our markets and performance in investment banking. Peter, over to you.

[Peter Straume, Managing Partner & CEO of ABGSC Norway]

Thank you, Jonas. Yes. And the macro picture has been factored in a very segmented Nordic markets. Activity has been high in all segments. On the ECM side, there's been these large volumes in 2021 and in particular, the last quarter with a few large IPOs. We think that the growth in volume might not be reflected in revenues as some of the transactions are very large.On the debt side, it's also a very strong year, and Q4 was most strong quarter in Nordics. Finally, also high numbers within M&A in 2021, somewhat lower in the last quarter though.If you flip to the next page and talk a little bit more about ABG, corporate financing ended with record numbers for 2021 as Jonas has been alluding to. In the Q4, the strong finish for DCM added to the slightly weaker ECM activity. We had numerous exciting transactions across segments and products, including the AutoStore IPO, the Nordax Bank and several large private placements in the quarter.If we move to the next page. Within M&A and advisory, we also came -- ended record numbers for the year. Q4, seasonally strong, as always, with several large transactions, such as the Entra and Bank Norwegian transactions. But also public to private transaction for Crayon in Australia, for instance, and sale of PriceRunner to Klarna, to mention that to you.So with that, I leave the word back to you, Jonas.

[Jonas Strom, Chief Executive Officer]

Okay. Thank you, Peter. So let's move on to the next slide, please. When it comes to our brokerage and research operations, I'm very pleased to conclude that we have continued to outperform very tough comps year-on-year with solid growth all through the year. Also, in Q4 versus the record-breaking Q4 last year and versus the record-breaking 2020, in modern time, I'll revert to that shortly.Growth was underpinned by, of course, strong equity markets and high activity levels among clients, but also what we strongly believe is ABG gaining ground on our share of existing clients as well as the record high level of client onboarding.For almost a decade, the discussion has been all about structural decline of revenues in brokerage and commissions. But I think that now, after 3 consecutive years of growth in our brokerage revenues, it's fair to say we are not in a structural decline. And I'm proud we did not cut back in investing in this area, including research, contributing a few years ago, contributing to us being one of the relative winners.On that note, I'm pleased we ended the year in Norway with a couple of senior equity sales hires, proving our commitment to growth and ability to attract top talent. This strong performance would not have been possible without our hard-working and highly rated research team that are contributing to our improved standing amongst giants. In fact, we reached podium positions in 22 sectors, including #1 positions in very important sectors, such as financials and industrials in Sweden, and real estate, industrials and materials in Norway.Okay. Next slide, please. Well, looking at our cost base, I touched upon this already somewhat, starting off with our noncompensation costs. I must say I'm very proud we are able to keep those under control. And with NOK 1 million per head, we are proud to conclude that number has more or less been unchanged over the last decade or so.Having said that, our total cost base is up by 45%, which mainly is driven by -- yes, the main driver is increased revenues and profitability, resulting in higher variable compensation to our staff. Furthermore, by design, our planned growth of new hires specifically within investment banking is also driving costs and revenues, of course.Average number of employees increased by 9%, and the year-end number is around 320 employees. And as you can see on the right-hand side of the slide, the growth is primarily within investment banking. To a lesser degree, we are also noticing some wage inflation, but I'd say we're doing relatively well, keeping fixed salaries below the Street and focusing on total compensation vis-à-vis our staff.Next slide, please. Yes, capitalization and some further color. As you know, ABG has a very strong history of returning excess capital to shareholders through buybacks and cash dividends. And we are committed to continue doing just that. As you can see on the left-hand side of the slide, our historical range of yearly distributions to shareholders versus net profit has been plus/minus 100%. And last year, it was above 100%. Current regulations imply a need to increase our core capital mainly because of higher revenues, as you can see in the chart of the middle of the slide.Norway is, however, expected to implement the new EU capital regulations sometime this year or in 2023. Once implemented and with the obvious disclaimer, final details remain to be clarified. We expect our core capital requirement, all else equal, to be lower post implementation of the new regulations.Yes. Next slide, please. Okay. So let me summarize what we think are the key takeaways from Q4 and 2021. Well, obviously, 2021 was a record-breaking year for us with growth in all geographies, all products and all segments. We have continued to build and strengthen our position by carefully growing our organization, enabling us to enhance our product offering.Our agile operation and asset-light model make me very comfortable that we can continue to outgrow markets and handle whatever market conditions might expose us to.We continue to focus on what we can control. And the market is unfortunately not one of those things, and we are obsessed by raising the bar and deliver higher highs and higher lows across the cycle going forward.We still see untapped potential within several business areas, such as M&A and DCM. And we will continue to add talent to realize those opportunities.As always, our ability to execute short term is subject to market conditions. Having said that, I'm convinced that we will continue to deliver returns on value to all our stakeholders.I am very proud, we have been able to -- in spite of us executing on a level never seen before, we've been able to add high-quality transactions to our pipeline. And our pipeline is stronger, higher and more diversified than at the same time last year.We have grown with existing as well as new clients. And we have, over the last couple of years, doubled the number of paying clients. It is difficult for me to be anything than optimistic about our future prospects.So with that, I'll open up the floor for any questions.

[Unknown Executive]

We have received one question so far. And it reads, can you quantify the potential additional dividend capacity when you expect to get post the new regulations?

[Jonas Strom, Chief Executive Officer]

Yes, well, let me try at least. With the obvious disclaimer, once again, all details are yet not known. Our initial assessment is that should the new regulations have been imposed as of 2021, also in Norway, our dividend capacity would have been some 30 to 40 or higher, so more in line with EPS.

[Unknown Executive]

Next question is same theme. When do you expect that the core capital rules no longer impact your dividend capacity?

[Jonas Strom, Chief Executive Officer]

Core capital rules will always impact our dividend capacity. It has always been the case and will continue to be the case. What we are facing now is a position where EU has imposed regulations, but Norway have not yet done that. And when we look at the difference, there are, as I mentioned, as I tried to quantify, additional room for evaluating more capital distribution on the back of that. But we will always be under capital regulations, limiting our dividend capacity.Any further questions?

[Unknown Executive]

No further questions -- sorry, how far out approximately do you have a decent visibility of pipeline?

[Jonas Strom, Chief Executive Officer]

The difference differ from product to product, but I would say that on average, we have a very good visibility, once again subject to market conditions when it comes to H1, the first half of this year. We still see a lot of IPOs, for instance, in our pipeline, and the IPO market is changing. As the secondary market is changing, the IPO market is changing.We are adapting to that. And I would say our current IPO pipeline is a fair reflection of what investors are open to discuss. So I think we have pretty good visibility in H1. Once again, it differs from product to product.

[Unknown Executive]

Next question reads, ABG Sundal Collier acquired the remaining 50% of Vika Project Finance in Q1 2021, the entity in additional ABG Fastena for real estate investment in Sweden and Finland. How important is this part of the company? And what is the plans for the coming years for these two entities?

[Jonas Strom, Chief Executive Officer]

That's a very good question. Thank you for raising that question. It is important -- I mean, looking at the current contribution to revenues, it might not be the biggest part, but it's growing rapidly. And we also see strong synergies with our current product offering within real estate in corporate finance and also brokerage with us being well connected to all relevant parties that are discussing different transactions in real estate market in the Nordics.So we think there are further room for cross synergies, so to speak, with our core operations and Vika Project Finance and ABG Fastena going forward. And it will be gradually, a more sort of integrated part of our product offering down the road. And we still -- and we see potential to add new products on this platform as well down the road.

[Unknown Executive]

We do have one more question here. Invoice handling is a new business activity, and you state a growth of NOK 1 billion a year. Please describe the importance of this area. And do you plan to extend this outside Norway?

[Jonas Strom, Chief Executive Officer]

It is an integrated part of our Nordic offering to start with. So the question is, yes, it's already done. We plan to grow -- it's important -- stand-alone, it's contributing to revenues and profitability, albeit not a big number as of today, but it's also important, once again, as I alluded to on Project Finance, when it comes to being more relevant to existing clients or new clients in other type of transactions, such as acquisitions -- mergers and acquisitions. And as a part of a package, it's definitely something that adds to our relevance as a financial adviser in many different areas.

[Unknown Executive]

No further questions now.

[Jonas Strom, Chief Executive Officer]

Okay. If there are no further questions, I would just like to repeat that we are, once again, very happy with what we did in 2021, but being happy is not the same thing as being pleased all through. We still see room for growth within different product areas. We're very happy, we have a more diversified pipeline with more resilience to short-term swings in the market. And we have distributed -- proposed a distribution of 72% of EPS this year and once again, see room for additional evaluation of further capital to be distributed further down the road should the new regulations in Norway be implied sometime later this year or 2023.Thank you all for listening to this and happy to take any follow-up questions directly, should you have any later on, either me or Peter is available. Thank you.

[Peter Straume, Managing Partner & CEO of ABGSC Norway]

Thank you.