Akva Group ASA

OSE:AKVA

Q1-2025 Earnings Call

[Knut Nesse, executive]

Ladies and gentlemen, good morning, and very much welcome to the AKVA Group First Quarter Financial Presentation.



The agenda for this morning is that I will do the introduction and the highlights. Ronny Meinkoehn, our CFO, will do the financial performance, and we will also run a Q&A session. And please post any questions during the presentation, and our moderator will read your question. 



Highlights for the first quarter of '25. First of all, record high first quarter revenue of slightly more than NOK 1 billion, NOK 1.013 billion, and acceptable EBIT of NOK 57 million. Strong order intake of NOK 1.2 billion, supported by the EUR 30 million small contract with Cermaq Chile and also the sale of shares in Abyss Group to Arcus Infrastructure Partners with a net proceeds of NOK 144 million and a net gain of NOK 12 million, which is booked in first quarter. Also, we continued the sharp focus on further development and improved implementation of the Nautilus solution. 



Straight to the numbers, key figures for Q1. Revenue, as mentioned, of NOK 1.013 billion, that is representing a very good activity level, actually the highest in history for the first quarter. EBITDA of NOK 113 million. The breakdown of the NOK 113 million is Sea Based came in at NOK 96 million, Digital at NOK 7.2 million and Land Based at NOK 9.7 million.



EBIT at NOK 57 million for the group and this is in line with our expectations given activity level. This is also representing a record if you adjust the one-off of NOK 33 million back in '22. So this is representing a fairly good start of the year.



Diving into the development of order intake and order backlog. Overall order intake of NOK 1.2 billion. So that's a good number. Then going into the segments. Sea Based came in at NOK 784 million and that is -- if you compare quarter-on-quarter, this is slightly lower than the NOK 800 million a year ago.



However, just to understand the underlying quality of the order intake, I have to mention that in Q1 '24, we sold barges for NOK 160 million as part of the NOK 800 million. As you know, barges is with a relatively lower gross margin. In Q1 '25, we didn't sell any barges. We expect to sell later in the year. And hence, the underlying product mix and the related gross margin is a very strong one for Q1 '25. And this is also on top of the exceptional strong Q4. So that is leading to a relatively strong order backlog of NOK 2.8 billion.



Also into Land Based, I forgot to mention that we also took into our books the EUR 30 million Land Based contract for Cermaq Chile in Q1. So altogether, Land Based NOK 1.55 billion for the order backlog and Sea Based NOK 1.1 billion. In total, NOK 2.8 billion is comforting for the activity level going into Q2 and Q3. Then moving into strategic and operational status. 



First, the very high-level picture. The headline is that as such, the traditional farming technology an area like we have been doing in the last decades that is kind of out of capacity. So at high level, new technology is needed to bridge the demand.



And what I mean by bridging demand, that's illustrated the delta between the orange line, which is an illustration of the potential in demand, the potential in consumption growth over the next 15 years. People still like to consume salmon. It's a megatrend. Whereby the traditional cage farming will likely not account for more than an uptake or growth of 1.5%. And then you have the light blue line, which is then the delta between the orange and the dark blue one.



So in order to support growth, I think it's fair to say that new technology will be needed. And what is the menu of new technology and the growth possibilities in salmon production during the next decade. Well, let's first have a 2030 perspective and 2030 is not that far out. That's 5 years later basically. And starting to the right here in this overview, which is about the traditional farming in the fjord systems.



We believe what could be growth engines within the current farming regions, meaning the fjords would for instance, be deep farming. Deep farming comes with significantly lower mortality and will then drive growth. 



The other technology to drive growth in the traditional fjord systems will be the post-smolt technology, reducing the number of months in the sea and hence with a volume and capacity growth potential of 30% come back to that a little later. Then what about closed in the fjord systems? Well, in the 5 years window, probably some possibilities, but probably not the very big volumes.



Then looking at super exposed so-called semi-offshore and offshore, we think both of them will take some time and it will need more support from new regulation, the tax system and a new licensing system. So the conclusion is that it's going to take time. 



Then a little comment and a quick reflection on the new white paper, aquaculture white paper in Norwegian [Indiscernible] Bergen. We think that what overtaken it so far is that the government is trying to regulate in a more profound way, sea lice and sea lice levels, mortality as such, they want to bring down mortality and they want to control escapes a bit better. So that's the high ground.



It is on a technology-neutral basis, which is very much supported by AKVA Group. And we think in the next 5, 10 years that technology will be fundamental for growth. Saying that, we all know that this is something the process with having this finally voted for and including the detailed regulations and the relevant laws going to easily take 2, 3 years.



But as such, the signal is very clear. The government -- and we think there is a kind of consensus there in the parliament. They want to bring down the sea lice level. They want to bring down the mortality level. So in that sense, technology like post-smolt and deep farming will be very relevant in the years to come. That's our first take on it. 



Then looking a little bit on real data. This is data for all the Norwegian production taken down from Barns Watch, the public database since 2012. And at a very high level, we can say with regards to traditional farming, open cage farming like we have been doing in the U.S., that that long production time in sea is driving higher mortality and production cost.



So in the plot here, you see observed correlation between production time and the correlation of diseases. So on the horizontal one, number of months, and then you have the plot of medical lice treatment, mechanical removal of the lice and the proven cases of PD. 



So at high level, the conclusion is that there is a rising trend for both diseases and lice treatments as the time fish spent at the sea increases. So then what could be done with this? Well, we think our strategy to reduce mortality is about reducing the production time in traditional open sea cage farming. A post-smolt strategy, either on land or closed in sea is today available technology to reduce number of months in the sea.



The other alternative to the reduced number of months in the sea is to use deep farming or protected farming to avoid sea lice treatments. So we believe that both production strategies will likely lead to a reduced number of treatments, better fish health and lower mortality. 



One example then on the post-smolt going into post-smolt. We think it's fair to say that the post-smolt concept is validated and that there are significant benefits from our post-smolt strategy. Reduced number of months, reduced time in sea means less lice treatments and improved fish health. Also, it comes with better utilization of licenses, which provides improved volume with 30% or higher, which is dependent on the size of the post-smolt.



Then on the deep farming concept, we have branded like Nautilus. We think this can solve one of the biggest sustainability challenges in aquaculture, which is salmon lice or at least be part of the solution. So as you know, the concept is that you bring the fish 30 meters below the surface, which is typically below the sea lice belt. So the roof here in the illustration in the middle is 30 meters down. Also, we have this year launched next generation of air dome, which is new and improved.



So currently, we have around 25 active sites for time being. And the results so far from farmers running with Nautilus on a commercial basis is that they are consistently achieving 80% to 90% reduction in the number of sea lice treatments. And they are on a very consistent basis, achieving 90% or higher, superior quality. So it comes with better quality. and less sea lice treatments, which is positive also for lower mortality. 



Commercial for AKVA, we see a good momentum here with 5, 6 key customers using this technology. And we have also lined up with a pretty good pipeline of new customers. So good momentum when it comes to deep farming. And we consider this to be a total market for this specific product category of NOK 5 billion to NOK 6 billion over the next 5 to 10 years. 



Then earlier this week, we also announced that we have now finally concluded the contract with Laxey. It was announced earlier this year. It's a EUR 20 million contract for a reuse technology with Laxey on Iceland. And now they have announced that the financing was completed and hence, this contract now goes into execution. The long-term target of Laxey is very impressively 36,000 tonnes production capacity, including a post-smolt strategy as well. So this is very good development. 



NOAP Phase 2 is ongoing. NOAP Phase 2 has been initiated with an additional capacity of 4,000 tonnes. We are now executing that project in the midst of that. And on top of that, between NOAP and AKVA, there is a signed contract for Phase 3 with an additional capacity of 12,000 tonnes. And the start-up of that project, that will be authorized by NOAP in the future. 



Then moving on to our digital platform, our digital solutions, where we are present in all the world's salmon farming markets. Observe, which is about automated feeding, there we have using AI technology. And on a recurring revenue model, we have more than 100 sites worldwide. And there, we are the clear leader. AKVA Fishtalk, that's about planning and control. That's a kind of the ERP system for the salmon farmers. There, we have a global market share of 60%. So 6 out of 10 farm salmon will be on our system. And AKVA Connect, that's the control system. There we have also a recurring revenue model with more than 400 sites. 



Then closing off with our guidance for the year. Our guidance of revenue is NOK 4 billion for the year. We think the NOK 1 billion for first quarter is providing comfort. Q2 and Q3 is traditionally the peak seasonality and Q4 a little slower, but we should be well on track for the NOK 4 billion mark, which is representing roughly 15% growth from last year. On profitability, we are guiding on a minimum 6% EBIT for 2025, and that ROIC will gradually increase as well.



And then please notify this is very important. We are inviting you to the Capital Markets Day here in [indiscernible] Klepp outside Stavanger. That's going to be 12th of June. So please save the date, and we kindly invite you to come over to our center of excellence. There will be a presentation of our strategic road map and financial ambitions going forward, business segment presentation, site visits and stands and also ample time for Q&A, networking and social events. So we really look forward to your participation. So very much welcome. 



Saying that, I'd like to hand over the financial performance to Ronny. So please, Ronny.

[Ronny Meinkøhn, executive]

Thank you, Knut, and good morning to everyone. So overall, we are satisfied with the start of 2025 with the high activity level and improved profitability, and I will provide you with some more details on the financial performance. 



So on the back of a very strong Sea Based order intake in Q4 last year, we experienced a record high first quarter revenue, just above NOK 1 billion in Q1, which was NOK 229 million higher than Q1 1 year ago. And profitability improved significantly due to the increased revenue and economies of scale. So EBITDA increased by NOK 46 million, while EBIT improved by NOK 37 million compared to Q1 1 year ago. So the sale of our shares in Abyss Group was completed in Q1 and had a positive impact on revenue and profit of NOK 12 million in the quarter. 



And last, net financial costs are low in the quarter of NOK 12 million and is positively impacted by the NOK 8 million increase in market value on our investment in Nordic Aqua Partners. So we consider the profit before tax of NOK 45 million to be a good start to 2025. 



And the book-to-bill ratio last 12 months is 106% with an order intake of close to NOK 4 billion and revenue of NOK 3.8 billion. The revenue in Q1 is 29% higher than Q1 last year and also provides good support to our guiding of minimum NOK 4 billion in revenue in '25, which is an increase of 15% compared to 2024. The book-to-bill ratio in Q1 was solid of 118% and positive impacted by the RAS contract of EUR 30 million from Cermaq Chile. So we believe that the order backlog of EUR 2.8 billion is forming a good basis for a sound activity level in the next few quarters. 



On the markets, we continue to see a very positive momentum in the Nordic market and the revenue increased by 45% in Q1 compared to last year. In Americas, we had an increase of 12%, while we had a decline in Europe, Middle East of 7% compared to last year. The Sea Based business is still the majority of our revenue, 79% in the quarter. However, we had a really strong increase in Land Based revenue of 74% Sea Based increased by 24%, while Digital fell somewhat short compared to last year of 12%.



So we consider an EBITDA margin of 11.1% to be acceptable, which is an increase from the 8.6% in Q1 last year, which is driven by the increased revenue, which provides economies of scale and also improved project margins in our Land Based business. EBITDA margin of 11.9% is Sea Based is respectable based on a very sound product mix, and we are satisfied that we continue to see improved profitability in Land Based, which delivered an EBITDA margin of 5.5% in the quarter.



The financial position was strengthened during Q1, primarily due to the sale of our shares in Abyss Group with the net proceeds of NOK 144 million. So available cash, including unused amounts on the overdraft and revolving facility was NOK 500 million at the end of Q1, which is an increase of NOK 147 million compared to year-end.



Net working capital was reduced from 9.4% to 8.9% in the quarter. Measured in cash, we are at the same level as in Q4, which is good because we had a significant increase in activity level during the quarter. And last, we are satisfied with the development in the net EBITDA covenant, which ended at 2.47 in Q1 compared to the threshold of 4.5. So this covenant was a big issue for AKVA 1 year ago, but is now well controlled, and we have a comfortable headroom on the covenant.



Net interest-bearing debt was reduced by NOK 128 million in the quarter, and it is, of course, driven by the NOK 144 million in net proceeds from the sale of the shares in Abyss Group. On CapEx, we had NOK 39 million in the quarter, close to 50% is related to our 3 innovation agendas and another NOK 3 million is related to the global ERP project, which is still ongoing. We paid a dividend of NOK 1 per share on April 15, and the Board in AKVA will make a new assessment for the second half year ahead of our Q2 reporting in August.



I continue with the financial performance in our 3 business segments, starting with the Sea Based Technology. So as we stated in our Q4 presentation, we expected the revenue start of 2025 to be high on the back of the very strong order intake in Q4. So the NOK 804 million, that's an increase of 24% compared to last year, and EBITDA improved from 10% to 11.9% in Q1 this year, which is explained by the higher revenue, which provides economies of scale and a sound product mix.



With regards to the order intake, it's slightly down from NOK 800 million last year to NOK 784 million this year. And as Knut mentioned, this is all related to barges. So adjusted for barges, we see a positive development with regards to order intake for most of our products.



So the Nordic region had a strong increase in revenue of 36%, an increase in order intake of 10% compared to last year. In Americas, we had increased revenue of 2%, then a sharp decline in order intake of 53%. And this decline in order intake is primarily related to our operations in Chile, which had a really strong Q1 2024. Europe, Middle East, revenue at the same level as last year, while the order intake increased by 16%.



So we are satisfied to see the 12 months revenue trend, both on revenue and order intake. It's clearly a positive shift in the last two quarters. And of course, we will work hard to keep this momentum going forward. Order backlog is strong of NOK 1.1 billion and is NOK 162 million higher than a year ago. Quarter-on-quarter, we continue to see a positive development in our OpEx-based revenue for Sea Based. The revenue in Q1 this year was NOK 13 million higher than last year and equal to 32% of the total Sea Based revenue.



Moving on to Land Based. The order intake in Q1 of NOK 384 million is primarily related to the RAS contract with Cermaq Chile. We had a strong increase in revenue of 74% compared to Q1 last year, and a significant part of this revenue is from the 2 ongoing projects, the NOAP, the Phase 2 of the project and also the post-smolt project with Cermaq in [indiscernible]. And both projects are progressing according to plan.



So on the back of a higher revenue, improved project margins, EBITDA improved by NOK 13 million for Land Based in Q1 compared to last year and ended at 5.5%. And also for Land Based, we see a positive development in the 12 months revenue and order intake trend, and we still have the capacity and the focus to take on new projects. So order backlog is close to NOK 1.6 billion at the end of the quarter, which is comforting for the revenue level in '25 and also into 2026.



And last, Digital, order intake of NOK 32 million in Q1, which is NOK 13 million lower than last year. The revenue was 12% lower compared to last year and is related to fewer upgrading projects for AKVA Connect. So the recurring part of the revenue is stable and slightly higher than last year.



EBITDA of 22% is acceptable but as we have informed you before, we still believe that the profit is on the soft side as the current cost base is high compared to the current revenue level. And as we have talked about in previous presentations, the focus in Digital is to further grow the top line as we have the organization in place to manage a significant higher revenue than the level we are at today.



And from the revenue and order intake trend is turning downwards, which is the reason why the top priority is on sales for the business area going forward, and we are confident that we will turn this trend positive later this year. Order backlog of NOK 141 billion is NOK 17 million lower than 1 year ago.



So that was my financial update. I will give it back to Knut to close off this presentation.

[Knut Nesse, executive]

Thank you very much, Ronny.



Then a quick summary on the outlook. We expect to still see a strong momentum for deep farming concept. We think that's a kind of a megatrend in particular, the Norwegian market. We think there are some possibilities to develop the same concept modified a little bit also for the Chilean marketplace.



Expect to see a normalization of the post-smolt market in Norway gradual and over a bit of time and also continue to invest and improve our solutions across Sea Based, Land Based and Digital like we have been doing in the last few years.



The guidance for the year, we are aiming for a revenue of NOK 4 billion and EBIT of 6% in 2025. And we are really looking forward to present our strategic road map and financial ambition in the Capital Market Day on June 12, and we really, really hope to see you there.



So thank you very much. And then we like to invite you for posting any questions. So hopefully, there are some questions already to start with. We are still waiting for some questions, and we kindly invite you to post any questions. We give it another 20, 30 seconds. So that's fine. But you have to type.



Okay. No questions. Maybe it's helpful with a little improvement in the financials. So the story was probably good. Thank you very much. Have a nice weekend.

[Ronny Meinkøhn, executive]

Thank you.