Elmera Group ASA

OSE:ELMRA

Q3-2025 Earnings Call

[Rolf Barmen, executive]

Good morning, and welcome to our third quarter 2025 presentation. My name is Rolf Barmen, Head of the Elmera Group. Our CFO, Henning Nordgulen, is as usual with me and will take us through the financials. Morten Opdal, our Head of Investor Relations, is also with us, and he will take questions during the presentation and address them to Henning and myself in our Q&A session. In the third quarter of 2025, the group has continued our strong operational performance from the last quarters. Our product management strategy has materialized in increased core net revenue margins year-over-year within both Consumer and Business segments, which by far are the group's largest reporting segments. Meanwhile, we have been able to continue the strong customer growth development from earlier this year, and both the Consumer and Nordic segments reported strong organic growth figures this quarter.

Combining increased margins with customer growth is a difficult exercise, and I'm very proud of how our commercial divisions, particularly here in Norway, have balanced these 2 aspects lately. The Insourced Power Trading function has been effective since May, including daily forecasting of consumption volumes. This strategic in-sourcing has proved to be very successful so far, already improving forecasting accuracy. Imbalance volumes have been reduced by approximately 30%, mitigating the increase in imbalance prices caused by increased volatility in the electricity market that we see in the Nordics and in Europe as such. Over to the reporting segments, starting off with the Consumer segment. In the Norwegian B2C market, the addition to the Norwegian power support scheme called Norgespris or Norwegian Price in English was launched with effect from October 1.

The general awareness and focus on electricity retailers and price plans among consumers increased significantly prior to the launch in the period when the consumers were considering whether to choose Norgespris or to continue with the regular power support scheme. Our brands increased their sales and marketing activities to capitalize on the increased customer mobility during this period, and this has materialized in historically strong organic customer growth of 9,000 deliveries in the quarter. Like the first half of 2025, temperatures have remained above seasonal norms also during the third quarter, resulting in a lower-than-normal electricity consumption, affecting net revenue across all the group's segments. Taking this into consideration, we are very satisfied with our financials this quarter, which Henning will provide more details to you about later. The business segment is performing well and continued its strong track record also in this quarter.

In fact, the segment reported the highest ever net revenue margin per kilowatt hour in this quarter, supported by favorable market dynamics and changes in the customer mix. Consequently, operating profit increased significantly year-over-year despite the negative impact from milder weather. The profitability of the group's new growth initiatives was negatively impacted by increased data consumption among mobile subscribers during the Norwegian summer. Also here, warmer-than-normal weather resulted in change in customer behavior and increased data costs. We have made some adjustments to our price plans in order to improve profitability within mobile going forward and remain confident in our long-term financial goal for this business area.

In addition, changes to the Alliance business model towards a much more capital-light business model have reduced segment revenue, while group financing costs correspondingly also have been reduced. The B2C growth strategy in the Nordic segment has progressed according to plan. We reported a net growth in deliveries of 3,000 in the quarter, while underlying growth in strategic customers was even higher due to the ongoing phaseout of nonstrategic legacy contracts. Losses related to SMEs in Sweden were also significantly reduced from last quarter and in line with our expectations. So to summarize, our operational development has been strong in the quarter with increased core margins in combination with solid organic growth. I will, as usual, come back later to comment on our outlook. But first, Henning will take you through the financials. Henning, the floor is yours.

[Henning Nordgulen, executive]

Thank you, Rolf, and good morning. Given the higher-than-normal temperatures and increased sales and marketing activities relating to the introduction of Norgespris, we consider Q3 a solid quarter financially. Net revenue adjusted ended at NOK 351 million compared to NOK 368 million in the third quarter of 2024. EBIT adjusted was NOK 61 million compared to NOK 79 million in Q3 last year. The last 12 months net revenue was approximately NOK 1.71 billion, a reduction from NOK 1.78 billion in Q3 2024, while the last 12 months EBIT adjusted was NOK 482 million, a decrease from NOK 572 million in Q3 2024. We report increased core margins in both the Consumer and Business segments, and we continue to neutralize the effect of inflation and salary increases in our cost base. Operating expenses at group level were NOK 290 million compared to NOK 289 million in the third quarter of 2024, which is in line with the group's stable nominal cost guidance.

The last 12 months OpEx adjusted was NOK 1.23 million (sic) [ NOK 1.23 billion ], also in line with full year 2024. Cash spent to secure new contracts amounted to NOK 44 million in the quarter, an increase from NOK 39 million in Q3 2024, reflecting the increased activity to support organic growth in the quarter. And then over to market development and starting with the elspot prices on the left-hand side of the slide. Prices in the quarter were significantly higher than last year, driving the increase in gross revenue year-over-year. The chart illustrates the system price in Norway. However, we remind that significant regional price differences exist due to grid congestion. To the right, you can see the monthly supply changes. We are aware of recent data quality issues from Elhub, but they have reportedly been solved now. Relying on the data provided, supply changes were slightly up in September. We attribute this to increased customer mobility related to the launch of Norgespris.

Then over to the segments and starting with Consumer. We experienced a historically strong organic growth with an increase of over 9,000 deliveries or 1.4% quarter-over-quarter. Core margins also increased year-over-year. However, net revenue decreased somewhat year-over-year, driven by higher sales-related incentives to support the customer growth during the quarter. Volumes sold decreased by 1% year-over-year, driven by a 2% reduction in average consumption. Temperatures were higher than normal also in the third quarter, which negatively affected consumption and logically net revenue. This is also the case for the volumes sold over the last 12 months, which was down 4% year-over-year. Variable contracts continue its slow churn out and represented less than 4% of deliveries at quarter end. The Business segment saw a minor decrease in the number of deliveries this quarter, driven by one major customer exit and some segment migration due to August.

The net revenue margin was all-time high this quarter, driven by increased core margins, favorable market dynamics and reduced average consumption as some larger low-margin tender customers have also been phased out. Volumes sold contracted by 7%, driven by a 10% reduction in average consumption per delivery year-over-year. This was also due to the mild weather and changes in the customer mix. OpEx adjusted decreased by NOK 4 million year-over-year due to cost discipline and reduced losses on receivables. In combination with the increased net revenue, this led to a NOK 7 million increase in EBIT adjusted year-over-year. In the Nordic segment, we experienced solid underlying growth of 5,000 deliveries in the B2C spot portfolio in the quarter, while as Rolf said, the net reported increase in deliveries for the segment was 3,000, the difference being the strategic phaseout of legacy fixed price contracts. Volumes sold decreased by 6% year-over-year due to mild temperatures and legacy contract phaseouts.

Looking at the volume over the last 12 months, we now observe that LTM has stabilized around 1.5 terawatts over the last quarter. This is illustrated by the orange line in the bottom left chart. In the second quarter, we reported a negative impact on profits from credit and hedging losses from the Swedish B2B segment. And we commented that this was likely to affect results also in the coming quarters. The negative impact this quarter was NOK 6 million, a significant reduction from the last quarter. Within the new growth initiatives, volumes sold within Alliance increased by 5% year-over-year. The number of deliveries increased by 7,000 within Alliance, while we experienced a slight decrease in the number of mobile subscribers in the quarter. Financially, mobile was negatively affected by increased data consumption from subscribers on free data plans during the Norwegian summer, which was more pleasant than normal.

We have implemented price changes to our subscription plans in order to improve the profitability of mobile going forward. As mentioned in our Q2 presentation and also by Rolf, we have changed the business model when it comes to handling the volume purchased on behalf of our Alliance partners. From offering paid credit lines when purchasing volume through our model, we have shifted to a capital-light approach where partners either pay in advance or as volume are consumed. This reduces the interest component in net revenue, but it also reduces group finance costs and enable us to allocate capital to areas with higher margins. Accordingly, year-over-year performance in Alliance should be viewed in light of this change in concept. Then over to net working capital and the cash position.

The net working capital at quarter end was NOK 360 million. We reiterate that we have replaced interest-bearing supply credit with bank facilities in connection with the in-sourcing of the power trading function. Historically, supply credit has been included in net working capital, thus, both net working capital and the net interest-bearing debt increased in the revised sourcing model. However, as we have also communicated previously, the underlying leverage remains unchanged. The decrease in working capital from the last quarter is primarily attributable to timing and settlement effects. The cash position improved to a negative of NOK 930 million during the quarter, driven by the working capital release and the positive cash EBIT in the period. I then give the floor back to Rolf.

[Rolf Barmen, executive]

Thank you, Henning. First off, I would like to comment on Norgespris, which was implemented on the 1st of October. Customers choosing this support scheme will receive a fixed electricity price of NOK 0.50 per kilowatt hour, including VAT. Currently, approximately 36% of the households and nearly 50% of the holiday homes have chosen Norgespris according to Elhub, and this is in line with our internal figures. It is too early to conclude on how consumer behavior and consumption is affected by Norgespris. But according to industry experts, the consumption is likely to increase by a couple of percentage points in the short term and slightly more in a longer perspective. We remain our role as the customers' adviser, and we have received thousands of extra inquiries every day regarding Norgespris. I already touched upon the in-sourcing of the power trading function previously in the presentation.

Accuracy in consumption forecasting has been significantly improved, and we are very satisfied with how the in-sourcing has progressed so far. During 2026, we will further reap benefits of the Insourced function by becoming a player both in the intraday market and in the financial marketplace. Lastly, we have actively pursuing acquisitions. We observed that the activity has taken up, and we see increased market opportunities across both Norway, Sweden and Finland in this respect. Next, some words on our financial targets, where we reiterate the targets communicated on our last quarterly presentation. Given the mild weather in 2025 and correspondingly low volumes and given the increased credit risk in the HoReCa segment in Sweden, we expect that our net revenue and EBIT adjusted will likely be below targeted levels for 2025. Otherwise, our financial targets remain unchanged.

So let's start the Q&A session. Morten, do you have any incoming questions for us? And I invite, of course, Henning up to me. Welcome.

[Morten A. W. Opdal, executive]

Yes, we have some questions. We start off with a question on Norgespris. What share of your customers has chosen Norgespris?

[Rolf Barmen, executive]

I comment on that in my presentation, but I can say that combined for both households and holiday homes, slightly less than 40% of our customers now have chosen Norgespris. I also have to say that our customer service agents in both Fjordkraft and Gudbrandsdal Energi have done a tremendous job in handling the additional inquiries regarding Norgespris, which have increased by several thousand per day. A trend like this that in total, we have sent out to our customers more than 2.3 million messages to inform them about the various electricity support schemes.

[Morten A. W. Opdal, executive]

Thank you. And can you observe an increased consumption for the Norgespris customers?

[Rolf Barmen, executive]

That is too early to conclude on as we only have less than 1.5 months of available data. But according to analyst firms that have looked into how electricity consumption responds to price changes, we can expect usage to increase by around 1.5% to 3% in the short term and potentially more in the longer term. What also is interesting is that when it comes to holiday homes, the experts tell us that the effect is likely to be a bit stronger.

[Morten A. W. Opdal, executive]

Okay. Next question. Growth was strong in consumer in the quarter. Do you still expect strong growth going forward? Or will we see a moderation now that Norgespris has been implemented?

[Rolf Barmen, executive]

It will be exciting to see how things develop. There is no doubt that our brands have done an outstanding job preparing for the launch of Norgespris and that our commercial strategy has really paid off. I think that growth may level off a bit going forward. That's quite natural. But we are always on the lookout for new customers, of course. So we will continue to compete in the marketplace.

[Morten A. W. Opdal, executive]

You report losses in the Nordic segment this quarter. Do you still have faith in the Nordic expansion?

[Rolf Barmen, executive]

Sure. We certainly do. Our Nordic Green Energy brand is #1 in the Finnish B2C market when it comes to customer satisfaction, and we have been experiencing a solid growth for a long period of time there. We already have launched Fjordkraft in the B2B segment in Sweden and will introduce Fjordkraft to the -- excuse me, to the B2B segment, and we will introduce Fjordkraft to the B2C segment during the first quarter next year. Thereafter, Fjordkraft will enter the B2B market in Finland. So a year from now, we expect to be fully operational, both in Sweden and Finland, and we certainly are set for replicating the success we have achieved here in Norway.

[Morten A. W. Opdal, executive]

Thank you. We have a question on the financials. There is an increase in payments to obtained contracts in the quarter. How should we think about this for full year 2025?

[Henning Nordgulen, executive]

Well, in this quarter, we both had the increase in the cash spent to obtain new contracts, and we have the growth-related incentives that I elaborated on in the presentation. So first of all, this is an effect positioning ourselves optimizing for the introduction of Norgespris. And that is a -- it's not a one-off, but it's an effect in the third quarter, which will continue, but not with the same force into the fourth quarter. Overall, we think that the cash spent level of around NOK 140 million is a comfortable and right level with the market dynamics we have now. So we don't expect any significant changes to that level on an LTM basis.

[Morten A. W. Opdal, executive]

Thank you. Next question. How should we think about the risk of further bankruptcy losses in Nordic?

[Henning Nordgulen, executive]

Well, first of all, I'd like to mention that payment behavior continues to be strong in all our segments. So in a macro perspective, credit risk on a group level is very favorable. As you can note from our financials, losses are marginally actually marginally positive. Then also in this quarter, the NOK 6 million we disclosed for the Nordic segment, primarily then its net revenue. We are optimistic with respect to the situation going forward. We are winning the legal cases we have been involved in. The bankruptcy risk or the trend is not increasing. So as we said also in the last quarter, we expect this will continue to have an effect, but it does not change our guidance on the group level for next year.

[Morten A. W. Opdal, executive]

Thank you. We have a question on the in-sourcing of power trading. Have you been able to achieve any savings from the in-sourcing? If so, how much?

[Rolf Barmen, executive]

You can take that.

[Henning Nordgulen, executive]

Well, you commented on it really in the -- in your part of the presentation.

[Rolf Barmen, executive]

Yes, I can take that. It is -- obviously, we can do something above the volume when it comes to the imbalance marketplace. But we know that the imbalance prices have really increased a lot. So the effect from our improved performance is actually mitigating what would be much higher imbalance costs if we hadn't had this in-sourcing of the power trading. So I think that will be my answer, and we monitor this very closely. And what we can now see is that this has been a great success for us.

[Morten A. W. Opdal, executive]

Thank you. We have a question on Nordic growth. Can you elaborate a bit more on the Nordic growth? There's still no Fjordkraft brand in Sweden, but net growth seen this quarter. Is this likely to continue in the fourth quarter? Or was this due to favorable conditions in the third quarter?

[Rolf Barmen, executive]

Yes. I think it's fair to say that the increase in the Nordic B2C will be originated in Finland for the time being. We await the introduction of the Fjordkraft brand in the B2C market in Sweden coming up first quarter next year. And obviously, we also await to see effects from the launch of the B2B -- Fjordkraft B2B in Sweden also. But Finland, there's -- it is Nordic Green Energy that is the motor, the vehicle just for time being. And Nordic Green Energy will also be the vehicle and will be the main brand in the consumer market in Finland also after we have introduced Fjordkraft Eryttus, which is Fjordkraft B2C -- B2B in Finland.

[Morten A. W. Opdal, executive]

Thank you. The next question is the following. You have a 5.5% run rate Consumer growth in Norway. Congratulations. Can you give some color on how the growth has developed so far in the fourth quarter?

[Rolf Barmen, executive]

I think it is fair to say that it has balanced out. We cannot expect that kind of numbers for the fourth quarter. I think it's fair to say that. But we are optimistic, and we expect also to have growth in fourth quarter, but on a lower level.

[Morten A. W. Opdal, executive]

Okay. And the last question, it's on capital allocation. Can you comment on the relative attractivity of share buybacks versus M&A versus other capital allocation?

[Henning Nordgulen, executive]

No, we consider all aspects of capital allocation. We did have a share buyback in 2022. It's not been on the table over the last year. And that is something that obviously could be considered. Primarily, we allocate into the business and the operations to build shareholder value through our operations.

[Morten A. W. Opdal, executive]

Okay. That concludes the Q&A session. Thank you all for your attention, and have a nice day.

[Rolf Barmen, executive]

Thank you very much. Have a nice day.