Ayvens SA

OTC:ALLDF

Q4-2024 Earnings Call

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Ayvens Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Results Conference Call. Today's speaker will be Tim Albertsen, CEO; and Patrick Sommelet, Deputy CEO and CFO. I now hand over to Mr. Tim Albertsen. Please go ahead, sir.

[Tim Albertsen, executive]

Thank you. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to this Ayvens Q4 and Full Year 2024 Results Conference Call. I'm hosting this call, as mentioned, with Patrick Sommelet.

First, I'll present the highlights of Q4 and then the full year 2024. Then Patrick will comment on our financial results as always. After that, I present our strategic priorities for '25 and confirm our PowerUP 2026 financial targets. We'll then take all the questions you may have.

Let's now go to Slide 5. Before commenting on our Q4 and full year results '24, I would like to briefly announce that we have changed the presentation of the components within our gross operating income, which will provide you with a more straightforward view on the group's performance going forward. Patrick will provide you more information on the topic.

So moving on with our financial performance. Ayvens posted solid results in Q4 and full year 2024, underpinned by our proactive actions to increase margins and reduce our cost while leveraging on our strong market positioning. Underlying margin stood at 541 basis points this quarter and 532 basis points over the year, confirming the success of our actions to restore profitability.

Our used car sales, the results per vehicle stood at EUR 1,455 for the full year '24 and EUR 1,267 for Q4 2024. Though decreasing along with the normalization of used car prices, our used car sales results per vehicle has remained at a good level throughout the year and in the high end of our '24 guidance. We continued in Q4 to deliver on cost efficiency and our underlying cost-to-income ratio further decreased to 60.2%. In 2024, our cost-to-income ratio reached 63.2%, below our '24 guidance of 65% to 67%. Our net income group share came in at EUR 160 million this quarter and EUR 684 million over the full year 2024.

Finally, our capital position is strong with a core Tier 1 ratio of 12.6% at 31st of December 2024 and remained stable versus Q3 2024 despite the booking of the U.K. motor finance commissions. We'll be applying the CRR3 rule starting from the 1st of January 2025, which is expected to result in a positive impact on our core Tier 1 ratio of around 70 bps. As a result, we will propose to the next Annual Shareholders' Meeting on May 19, the distribution of a cash dividend of EUR 0.37 per share, which represents a payout of 50%, in line with our guidance.

Let me turn to the next page to present our key achievements in 2024. First and foremost, thanks to the strong dedication of our staff, the integration of LeasePlan has progressed at a steady pace since we obtained the DNO. As a result, synergies have been delivered in line with our objectives at EUR 121 million at the end of 2024, notably on procurement and insurance. We have also made good progress in streamlining our operations with the legal integration performed in 5 entities, the simplification of the group ownership structure. And since the 31st of January 2025, treasury setup has now been streamlined along the strong reduction of Ayvens derivatives portfolio, thanks to the full unwinding of LeasePlan's derivatives.

On IT, platforms has successfully been migrated in 7 countries, notably France and very recently Italy and Sweden. These 7 countries represent 40% of our total fleet. For our customers, the Ayvens brand name that establishes our company as a leading global sustainable mobility player is now live in 36 countries as well as our specialized activities, Ayvens Bank, Ayvens Insurance and Ayvens Carmarket. This transformational journey has also been strongly supported by our customers and partners. Our leading commercial franchise in the international corporate segment expanded further with Ayvens recording several commercial successes in the large international corporate segment with the gain of 14 new quite large clients.

To sharpen our competitive edge, we have also been proactive to develop and renew partnerships with top-rated car manufacturers to whom we offer seamless access to our platform and serve their clients with our outstanding leasing and digital capabilities. These partnerships, notably with BYD, Volvo, Kia, and Hyundai [indiscernible] to name a few, will contribute to fuel future growth in our retail segments.

Last but not least, we delivered on our financial and regulatory road map. As mentioned earlier, we restored margins to satisfactory levels in '24 and have been monitoring costs strictly at all levels in the group. This has led to a decrease of EUR 17 million in our quarterly recurring cost base when comparing Q4 '24 to Q4 '23 despite sustained inflation over the period.

The normalization of used car market has been gradually throughout the year and has remained at the high end of our expectations, and we have been managing the EV risk responsibly by being ahead of the market and lowering residual values on our electric vehicles, favoring sustainable growth over the short-term gains. As a regulated entity, Ayvens has set high standards in terms of regulatory and asset risk monitoring, reflected in the confirmation of the group's existing capital requirements following Ayvens' first SREP review conducted by the ECB at the end of 2024.

Let's turn to Page 7, on fleet and earning assets. Our earning assets grew EUR 500 million this quarter, reaching EUR 53.6 billion at the end of '24, representing an increase of 2.9% versus the end of 2023. This limited asset growth in '24 is the result of our proactive approach to restore profitability, combined with the review of our portfolio, which has led to a reduction of our fleet in a few selected markets. So overall, in terms of vehicles, funded fleet is down around 3% year-on-year. EV penetration in terms of car deliveries stood at 40% in full year 2024 with battery electric vehicles penetration at 27% and plug-in hybrids penetration at 13%.

Let me now hand over to Patrick, who will comment on our financial results.

[Patrick Sommelet, executive]

Thank you, Tim, and good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Before I dig into the results, let me say a few words on the change in the GOI presentation as well as the provision for the issue on the U.K. motor finance commission.

First, regarding the change in GOI presentation, prospective depreciation, which were previously accounted for in the leasing contract margin as a nonrecurring item, is now accounted for in the caption called used car sales results and depreciation adjustments. This change has no impact on the GOI income amount. We have done this change to provide you with a more straightforward view on the group's performance.

Indeed, margins will fully reflect our contractual performance with clients without any accounting adjustments caused by the evolution of prices of the used car sales market. Any prospective depreciation corresponding to revision of the residual value of the running fleet due to used car market evolution will be the one [indiscernible] directly captured in the used car sales results and depreciation adjustments. In 2024, there was no such prospective depreciation recognized in GOI.

Looking at the graph on the right-hand side on Slide #9, in dark blue, you can now directly read our underlying UCS results, EUR 200 million this quarter, and in light blue, the net impact of all depreciation adjustment, that is PPA amortization, prospective depreciation, and their release. In parallel, on the graph in the middle, prospective depreciation is no longer in the leasing margins and hence is no longer part of the nonrecurring items highlighted in light blue.

Slide 31 in appendix is presenting these changes in more details with the restated historical quarters.

Second, regarding the provision of EUR 93 million related to the U.K. motor finance commission topic, it remains an uncertain topic, which has attracted a lot of attention in the U.K. Further to the decision of the court of appeal in October '24, we have carefully looked at this issue with our auditors. Overall, we have adopted a probability-based provisioning, mostly on the regulated business with an effect on our 2023 end-of-year account for EUR 69 million for restatement and EUR 18 million in Q4 '24, which we believe is a prudent provision.

Let's now turn to our Q4 '24 results. Gross operating income increased sharply versus Q4 '23 by plus 27%, thanks to a large reduction in the impact of nonrecurring items, which totaled minus EUR 186 million in Q4 '23 versus minus EUR 46 million in Q4 '24. The strong decrease in nonrecurring items is mainly attributable to the mark-to-market of derivatives whose sensitivities have been drastically reduced throughout 2024 with a net impact of positive EUR 5 million in Q4 '24 to be compared with the minus EUR 137 million we had in Q4 '23.

Underlying margins, as already commented, are trending up at EUR 721 million in Q4 '24, the highest quarter of the year. It is up positive EUR 73 million versus Q4 '23, which stood at EUR 648 million, reflecting the higher returns we extract from our earning assets. For UCS, the normalization continues at a gradual pace, amplified by the end of the year seasonality and also impacted by higher depreciation adjustments versus Q3 '24. As a result, our UCS result in depreciation adjustment decreased to EUR 38 million in Q4 '24 versus EUR 77 million in Q3 '24.

Let's now move to Page 10 to comment further on our margin. The graph on the left-hand side of this page shows the upward trend in our underlying margins, reflecting the positive effect of our commercial actions to increase profitability. In Q4 '24, underlying margin reached 541 basis points, the highest point over the 5 last quarters and up 34 basis points versus Q4 '23. Over the full year, our underlying margin stood at 532 basis points, a level in line with our financial road map. On nonrecurring items, impact is almost stable versus Q3 '24 at minus EUR 46 million, while it is sharply reducing versus Q4 '23.

This quarter, nonrecurring items is mainly comprised of a negative impact of minus EUR 40 million related to hyperinflation in Turkey due to the decorrelation between the overall CPI in the country and the used car market prices. Nonrecurring items also include the provision related to U.K. motor finance I explained earlier for minus EUR 18 million in Q4 2024.

Let's now move to Page 10 (sic) [ 11 ] on the used car sales results. UCS remains at a fairly high level this quarter, EUR 1,267 per unit before accounting impact. As you can see on the graph on the left-hand side, UCS results have continued to normalize in the quarter usually impacted by seasonality with lower customer demand, while car dealers tend to offload their volumes at year-end. It represents a decrease of minus EUR 153 per unit versus Q3 '24. January activity is confirming a good recovery of this price.

In terms of powertrain dynamics, the used car sales market in Europe are a reflection of trends seen in new car markets. Transition to greener mobility is more gradual than initially anticipated with ICE cars remaining with a strong demand and their prices holding up well. On electric vehicles, notably battery electric vehicles, demand is not as strong. Nonetheless, losses made on BEV have stabilized in the second half of 2024. Including depreciation adjustment, the result is down quarter-on-quarter at EUR 239 per unit versus EUR 493 in Q3 '24, reflecting the normalization of UCS results per unit, but also driven by higher depreciation adjustment, which amounted to minus EUR 162 million in Q4 '24 versus minus EUR 145 million in Q3 '24. We sold 158,000 cars this quarter, stable versus previously, demonstrating once a year our strong remarketing capabilities.

I will now comment on the next slide on the rest of the income statement with operating expenses. So over the past year, underlying operating expenses have continuously been decreasing quarter after quarter, reaching EUR 434 million in Q4 '24 versus EUR 451 million in Q4 '23. This reduction in cost despite sustained inflation has been achieved, thanks to a strict cost monitoring across central functions and operational entity. As a result, and combined with improvement of margins, the cost to income is sharply down year-on-year by 9.3 percentage points at 60.2% in Q4 '24 versus 69.5% in Q4 '23.

In full year '24, cost to income stood at 63.2%, better than our guidance of between 65% and 67%. CTA this quarter stood at EUR 41 million, higher than in Q3 '24, reflecting the heavy integration agenda in H2 '24 and H1 '25. Over the year, CTA stood at EUR 120 million, within the range we indicated during the presentation of our Q3 '24 results.

Next slide, please. So a few words on the cost of risk, which stood at EUR 36 million in Q4 '24, up from EUR 29 million in Q3 '24. The increase is mainly due to a technical provision and a specific receivable that is expected to smoothen in the coming months. Excluding this specific item, the cost of risk in Q4 '24 is more or less in line with the annual average at 24 basis points. The effective tax rate is low this quarter at 20.9%. It benefited from favorable one-offs such as the release of unused tax provision and the recognition of some tax credits. Over the full year, the tax rate stood at 28.6%.

Net income group share stood at EUR 160 million this quarter, up by EUR 13 million versus Q3 2024, benefiting from good revenues and a low tax rate. Over the full year, net income group share stood at EUR 684 million.

So let's now move to Page 14 for RWA and capital. RWA increased this quarter by around EUR 600 million to reach EUR 59 billion versus EUR 58.3 billion at the end of September 2024. This increase results from various items, mainly constituted by the growth of earnings, generating an additional EUR 200 million of RWA and the increase of our inventory and prepayment balances, which is typical at the end of the year, for EUR 400 million. As a result, our CET 1 ratio stands at 12.6% at the end of December '24, stable versus September '24.

I now hand over to Tim to present our strategic priorities for 2025.

[Tim Albertsen, executive]

Thank you, Patrick. Let me now say a few words on our strategic and financial road map in the context of our PowerUP 2026 strategic plan. Ayvens will continue to roll out the strategic and financial road map by focusing on 3 core priorities in 2025. First, regarding the operational integration of LeasePlan. After layering solid foundation in 2024, we will accelerate the execution with the objective to finalize IT and legal integrations in overlapping countries and to implement local targeted operating models. This will enable us to lever the remaining synergies, achieve the financial targets, and create value for all our stakeholders.

Second, after having reshaped our portfolio during the past year, we are now in a position to resume sustainable growth in 2025. We will leverage on our leadership positions, strong partnerships, and best-in-class product offering to resume fleet growth in the profitable segments that we have identified. Doing so, we'll remain responsible in helping our clients in their EV transition, proactively monitoring the EV value chain to ensure adequate profitability, mitigate residual value risk and adapt our EV intake accordingly.

Finally, as a major player in the transition to a low-carbon economy, we have the ambition to maintain high ESG standards, meeting the expectations of our major stakeholders. On ESG, Ayvens will set SBTi targets and has the ambition to maintain best-in-class ratings as showcased in 2024 with the attention of the EcoVadis Platinum medal, placing Ayvens in the top 1% companies assessed during the last 12 months.

Let's turn to Page 17, to our guidance. Our achievements in 2024, together with our strategic priorities for '25 demonstrate our commitment and confidence towards our PowerUP '26 plan. We reiterate and confirm all of our PowerUP '26 targets, earning asset growth at plus 6% per annum between '23 and '26, pretax gross annual synergies at EUR 440 million. Cost to income ratio, excluding used car sales and nonrecurring items at 52%, a core Tier 1 ratio at minimum of 12%, a dividend payout of 50%, and return on tangible equity in the range of 13% to 15%.

Regarding 2025, more specifically, we expect the normalization of used car market to continue and our used car sales results before depreciation adjustment to stand between EUR 700 and EUR 1,100 per unit. After depreciation adjustments, this translates into a range of EUR 300 to EUR 700 per vehicle, which is in line with our results in 2024, which stood at EUR 508 per unit. As an intermediary step towards our PowerUP '26 cost to income guidance, we will continue to improve our operational leverage and decrease further our cost to income ratio in 2025. Excluding nonrecurring items, we expect to stand between 57% and 59% for the full year 2025. CTA should be -- should amount to between EUR 115 million and EUR 125 million in 2025, reflecting the restructuring, which remains to be done.

This concludes our presentation. Thank you for listening, and we're now ready to take any questions you may have.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] The first question is from Sharath Kumar, Deutsche Bank.

[Sharath Ramanathan, analyst]

So I have a couple. So firstly, I wanted to dwell a bit more into your 2025 outlook, particularly on the leasing and service margins. So how do you see margins evolving in 2025? Do you expect a further pickup in '25 versus the 4Q '24 level? Or given your ambition to grow fleet size a bit more aggressively, do you think some softening is necessitated? Previously, you had a broad range of 530 to 550 basis points. So how does that compare? So that is the first one.

And secondly, on the U.K. motor finance commission provisions, thank you for the useful slide. But in what context should we see your provisions of EUR 93 million versus the potential range of assumptions on probabilities? I know there is a lot of uncertainty, but any further color would be useful.

[Tim Albertsen, executive]

Thank you, Kumar. So I think I'll probably hand over to Patrick on both these questions. Maybe the first one on margin.

[Patrick Sommelet, executive]

Yes. Thank you for the question. So I think the '25 outlook for margin, we -- first of all, we -- margin and fleet growth, we have had a 24 year of stabilization, and we intend to grow the fleet more significantly in '25. So that will have obviously an impact on net earning assets and margin in million euro. The effect of that on the underlying margin basis point is a bit difficult to assess. We don't give a precise guidance because it can be a bit volatile, but our aim is still to restore margin to levels we are trending at this quarter, maybe a bit higher. It's very difficult to say. It depends also on the interest rate environment.

But all in all, margins in million euro should grow in accordance with more dynamic fleet growth and more dynamic NEA evolution after a year of review of the business, review of each, the most significant transaction and some restructuring in some countries, which had a below profitability level compared to our goals. For the U.K., as you know, it's a very uncertain environment. We have done the provisioning mostly on our regulated business because we think it is at the heart of the issue. But there's really more development to be awaited during '25 on this issue. You have seen that in the recent development, the government has decided to step in to kind of circumvent the issue. We believe with this level, we are adequately provisioned, and we'll keep updating the market on the evolution of the case.

[Operator]

The next question is from Jacques-Henri Gaulard, Kepler Cheuvreux.

[Jacques-Henri Gaulard, analyst]

Yes, I have 2. The first one, I know that your CET 1 ratio is going to go up to 70. Does it mean, Patrick, that you're at 13.3? And would that impact your dividend distribution going forward? Maybe I've missed something technicality. And the second is on the one-off because if I'm adding painfully everything, you probably stood at something like minus EUR 800 million, all inclusive, between your restructuring costs between inflation in Turkey, the reduction in depreciation costs, the PPA. And it seems that you have -- you're going to be relieved by around EUR 500 million. Is that the right way to look at it?

[Tim Albertsen, executive]

Thanks, Henri. Maybe a first comment on the dividend and our CET 1. So obviously, we do not intend to hold more capital than required. And I guess the obvious question is what do we do with excess capital, which we will work upon and obviously come to a proposal -- come with a proposal to our Board during '25. But clearly, there's no interest for us to hold more capital necessary in the company. And maybe on the second one…

[Patrick Sommelet, executive]

Yes, on the one-off, it's true that we have had quite a number of one-offs in '24, a nonrecurring item. These are decreasing compared to '23, thankfully. So this is something which is positive for the reading of the accounts. For '25, the main one-off which will disappear is the amortization of the PPA, which is disclosed on Page 19 in our appendices. So we expect to have -- that's always depending on the cars which are coming back in each quarter, but we expect based on their contractual maturity, we expect to have minus EUR 25 million impact only for the full year '25. This should materialize in Q1 '25. But again, there's a -- that can be a bit different from the contractual maturity of the leasing contract.

We will still have some residual prospective depreciation reversal. We haven't booked new ones in '24. At current, we do not intend to book in '25. There's no prospective depreciation in our budget. But then it remains related to the evolution of the market. So we cannot say -- we never can say never. But as you have noticed, this prospective depreciation will be booked and reported from now on in UCS results, so a much cleaner version of margin. So that -- and we have disclosed on Page 19, the impact of prospective depreciation for both '25 and '26.

So overall, a lower amount of nonrecurring items on this front. We will still have CTA because we are still restructuring the firm, adapting the 2 formal -- the 2 previous entities to the new Ayvens in a number of countries, but everything is going as planned on this front. And hyperinflation in Turkey is depending upon the macro situation in Turkey. So it's a quite volatile event, but I think the magnitude of which on a quarter-to-quarter, it's -- this will be very clearly, we do not intend to have significant mark-to-market volatility in '25. I think we have covered most of them actually.

[Jacques-Henri Gaulard, analyst]

Just one quick follow-up on that one. That's part of the second question. It's not a third one. I've noticed that in Q3, your projected impact of reduction in depreciation cost was extending a little bit to '27 and '28. But obviously, it's not the case anymore. You -- at the current levels of pricing, you stopped the impact in 2026, correct?

[Patrick Sommelet, executive]

It's a release. It's not the current level of pricing. It depends on the cars which are coming -- it's a release indeed. So we have had a slightly higher release in Q4 '24, notably, as you can see. So it contributes to the maybe lower UCS results, but it's not -- it's just something which would have come later in time. And indeed, now we have disclosed on Page 19, the updated impact for the upcoming year.

[Operator]

The next question is from Geoffroy Michalet, ODDO.

[Geoffroy Michalet, analyst]

Two for me. Can you give us a bit of granularity on UCS by powertrain, how it has evolved throughout the year, and what you foresee in the next 2, 3 years? And the second question is you mentioned your willingness to get less exposed to Turkey, which is quite volatile in your P&L. Can you maybe give us where you are now in Turkey, where you would like to land, and at which pace?

[Tim Albertsen, executive]

Thank you, Michalet. So on the used car sales, I guess, first of all, I think we have seen the market holding up better than anticipated to some extent in '24. The difference between ICE cars and electric vehicle has been quite significant. But what we have seen, obviously, in '24 and which we expect to continue into '25 is the fact that the ICE cars are performing really well. And again, supply/demand would indicate that it would remain at that level. There's also a lot of demand for ICE cars still.

And then we saw probably in the second half of '24 that the EVs were stabilizing, still at a loss-making level, but stabilizing. And it's also what we are seeing in the first part of January here and anticipated to stay at this level. Of course, all the new cars we are writing is at very different residual values and it is taken care of. But overall, we anticipate, as we said, quite a -- a result pretty much in line with what we have had basically in '24 and '25 on used car sales.

The second question was on Turkey, yes. So I think for Turkey, as what we have done is we have scaled down, obviously, the operation there and de-fleeting the operation, and that's the way we manage it for the time being. I would say we don't really comment on more than that. We want to reduce our footprint in Turkey and that we are doing organically for the time being. But obviously, there is a few tendencies in Turkey, where it seems they're getting, obviously, the inflation a bit more under control and they have taken initiatives that eventually should look a bit better. But clearly, we don't have any appetite to grow in Turkey as it is today.

[Operator]

The next question is from Kiri Vijayarajah, HSBC.

[Kirishanthan Vijayarajah, analyst]

A couple of questions. So firstly, I'm afraid, coming back to the U.K. motor finance provision and really just trying to get some numbers to help us triangulate. So firstly, does the provision purely relate to where you provided finance to retail customers? Or have you made provisions against financing arrangements with SMEs and corporate customers as well? And roughly, how many financing contracts have you captured in the probability weighted scenarios? I just want to get a feel for what proportion of your U.K. business falls under the regulated umbrella? So really just some sort of basic numbers here to help us kind of triangulate and get comfortable with your provisioning number.

And then secondly, I just wondered if, Tim, you could just give us a quick word on your pipeline and when does it really start to move the needle in terms of fleet size? I think in the past, you've talked about second half of 2025. Is that something that you stand by? Or is maybe some slippage on that given what we're seeing with the macro in Europe at the moment? So just some view on the pipeline and volume growth outlook.

[Tim Albertsen, executive]

Yes. Thanks, Kiri. I think -- so I'll probably start with your second question and then Patrick can cover a bit more on the U.K. on the numbers. So in terms of growth, I think we already started basically preparing for '25 back in late September '24. And as you know, it takes time to build up the pipelines again and getting, let's say, things ready. We have seen quite good activity in the last weeks of December, and we also see quite good activity starting in January. As we mentioned in the presentation, we have actually won quite a few interesting larger clients in the international segments. And we have gained a few new partnerships as well that we anticipate to help us starting the growth. But I think you're right. As we have said before, probably the main push will be at the second half of '25.

First of all, we still have delays in deliveries depending a bit on the models. But overall, 3, 4, 5 months of delivery is not unusual. So that's what we expect. Well, we follow basically our order intake week by week, of course. And here, we do see already that we see more dynamism than we have seen in the past and is in line with the activities we are taking.

Patrick, on the U.K.?

[Patrick Sommelet, executive]

Yes. On the U.K., so if I take back your questions, we indeed looked mostly at the regulated business, which is largely with retail customers and very small SMEs. So that is -- so we have covered all the segment of business, but let's say, in the probability-based provisioning, the high probabilities are on these segments of the business, not on the large corporate or the leasing with very large corporate business, you're well educated. And that's where we have put most of the provisioning, which we deem as prudent. And the regulated business as a whole in the U.K., depending on the indicators, representing, I would say, 40% to 50% of total depending on the production and the rest, overall [indiscernible].

[Operator]

The next question is from Matthew Clark, Mediobanca.

[Jonathan Matthew Clark, analyst]

Sorry. Can I come back to the last question? I just didn't quite catch your figures on the size of the U.K. regulated business or the business with retail customers and small SMEs. If you could just repeat that, please?

[Patrick Sommelet, executive]

Yes. The business is around 40%. The regulated businesses in total represents around 40%.

[Jonathan Matthew Clark, analyst]

Okay. And 40% of what? Can you quantify that in terms of revenue contribution at annual or earning assets or fleet size, please?

[Patrick Sommelet, executive]

It's a mix of the various indicators. So we don't disclose exactly our U.K. business actually. It's a mix of the various indicators, which constitute the business.

[Jonathan Matthew Clark, analyst]

Can you give us some guidance on the size of the U.K. business? Otherwise, it's 40% of a number we have no visibility on. So the 40% doesn't really help that much.

[Patrick Sommelet, executive]

Well, I don't have the number exactly at hand. So we'll come back to you in the Investor Relations.

[Operator]

The next question is from Julien Onillon, Stifel.

[Julien Onillon, analyst]

Two questions. First, I just would like to come on the UCS results guidance, which is between EUR 700 and EUR 1,100 per unit. If you compare to 2024, it's a decline. And despite the fact that, as you mentioned, you expect the ICE car market, used car market to be strong and to remain strong, eventually, you might have some positive. And you are realizing some stabilization on the EVs in terms of pricing. So my question is, is it this decline compared in 2025 compared to 2024, is it due to the fact that the cars which will be sold this year basically -- the contract basically was the depreciation of those cars has been not as favorable as it was in 2024? Or is it due that you have been, in fact, you're expecting used car price market to be, in fact, a little more -- you have been conservative in a way that you see better markets right now, but do you expect that maybe you have more decline to come or something like that? So just to try to understand, is it due to basically the new inventory of cars or is it due to the market itself, which explains effectively this guidance?

Second question, a bit more technical, but it's on the tax rate. It's been 29% for the full year in 2024. With the French government budget, which is planning to put a new tax for corporate with more than EUR 1 billion of revenues in France, which is your case. What impact do you expect for the full year? And what sort of tax rate you will expect for 2025?

[Tim Albertsen, executive]

Thanks, Julien. So on the used car sales, first, I guess, I mean, it's really around the market and the market development. I think what we see in Q4 is always a downturn. First of all, traders do not like to hold assets over the year, basically over the end of the year. So the demand in December is typically significantly lower. And on top of that, we do actually -- we actually do a stock provision on the cars we have on stock over the year as well. So actually, the decrease or the downfall in Q4 is seasonal and to some extent a bit more impacted by provisioning. Overall, the market and the trade in the market was actually fairly stable at the end.

What we see in January is actually a strong rebound of the markets from December, which is also anticipated. So it has nothing to do with our residuals, which our residual value policy is very strict and it doesn't really change over time, except what we do things like on the EVs. But -- and overall, when we look at ICE cars and the demand for ICE cars and especially the supply of ICE cars, it's in favor to keep, which means probably that the normalization we have been talking about for quite some while is even more slow than we anticipated. And as EVs have stabilized, and actually in a few months, we're actually a bit positive in the autumn of '24. That trend is expected to basically keep us at more or less the same levels that we have seen in '24. So that's on the used car sales. I hope that answered that question.

Maybe on the tax rate.

[Patrick Sommelet, executive]

Yes. On the tax rate, yes, we've seen obviously the project and now which is becoming almost live with the adoption of the new budget. For France, I think we have a situation where we have an operating entity, which is obviously profitable, but we also have a lot of costs as we have a lot of corporate activities, which are based in France. So overall, we do not anticipate a major impact on our tax rate, which should remain around the 30% it was for '24 as a whole.

[Julien Onillon, analyst]

Just it was more -- my question was more on the guidance for 2025, your UCS results per unit, which is about EUR 700 to EUR 1,100 per car, which is lower than it was in 2024, just -- and lower than the fourth quarter, in fact, it's just to try to understand effectively what was below that -- behind those -- this guidance?

[Tim Albertsen, executive]

Well, I think that particular reflects, of course, the normalization, which is happening, but at a lower pace than anticipated actually. If you go back -- if we go back to our Capital Market Day in '23, we would expect basically a full normalization by '25 at that point. And that is coming slower than anticipated, and in particular, on the ICE cars, the demand is still very strong. So it is the normalization overall, but at a slower pace than we anticipated initially.

[Operator]

The next question is a follow-up from Jacques-Henri Gaulard at Kepler Cheuvreux.

[Jacques-Henri Gaulard, analyst]

Just a quick follow-up, anybody, to add a third one. On your cost to income ratio target, which is really interesting, Tim, you mentioned 57% to 59% this year. And then going to 52%, which obviously is totally adjusted, excluding UCS and nonrecurring. It's really a big cliff, right, considering that the bulk of the synergies will have been done. How -- what makes you confident you'll manage to actually get to that level?

[Tim Albertsen, executive]

Yes. Well, I think as you have seen, we are -- in Q4, we had 60.2%. So -- and we have -- when we look at the synergies that we have gotten in '24, we really have looked mainly on the margin side. And of course, all the synergies now coming from the OpEx side, which is related, of course, to the integration and reduction or actually initiating the staff plans in correspondence with the migrations. So there is quite a big chunk of OpEx synergies coming in throughout the next 12, 18 months, around EUR 200 million. And at the same time, we still have more to go at as well on the margin side.

And I think what you have seen in terms of our cost management and the initiatives we have taken, we feel very comfortable that we will get clearly to the guidance. We have given 57% to 59%. And then having the full effect in '26 should take us to the 52%. So I mean, we know it's ambitious. I think we always said that. But the way we are executing the plans and the way we're actually getting to the synergies for the time being gives us good comfort in reaching 52%.

[Operator]

The next question is from Reg Watson, ING.

[Reginald Watson, analyst]

I'd like to come back to the UCS guidance for 2025. You've provided it excluding depreciation. But if I look at the trend of depreciation adjustments, they're running at roughly EUR 1,000 a quarter. The implication, therefore, is that your UCS guidance is actually negative EUR 300 to positive EUR 100. I hope that's not the case. Could you give us more color perhaps on how you expect depreciation to evolve and what the net result UCS per unit should be for '25?

[Tim Albertsen, executive]

Patrick?

[Patrick Sommelet, executive]

Yes. No, I think you have actually the wrong reading. We have a gross UCS per unit, which is decreasing from '24.

[Reginald Watson, analyst]

No, no. Sorry to interrupt. I'm looking at the -- you're providing a gross number on Slide 17. But the actual -- if I look at the reporting adjustments you've created on Slide 11, there is a delta of EUR 1,000 to provide the net results, yes? So if I apply the delta of EUR 1,000 to the gross number you've given on 17, I get a net result of minus 300 to plus 100.

[Patrick Sommelet, executive]

No, that's the point I was coming to because, actually, in '25, you have less amortization. And that refers to the question previously asked by Jacques-Henri. If you look at the appendix on Page 19, you see that we will have no more amortization of PPA in '25 or residual '25. And the gap between the gross amount and the reported post accounting adjustment amount will be lower in '25 than in '24.

[Reginald Watson, analyst]

How much lower?

[Patrick Sommelet, executive]

We have provided you, I think, in the speech with the UCS post accounting adjustment, which means that overall, we expect more or less stable UCS results '24, '25, depending on the market prices. But the way we see it today, it gives us this outcome.

[Operator]

The next question is from Delphine Lee, JPMorgan.

[Delphine Lee, analyst]

Just wanted to follow-up on cost to income ratio. Just for '25, the guidance. I was just wondering why we're not seeing more improvement given that on average, I think your margins will be improving a bit. And you should see, as you say, like start to see a bit more of the synergies coming through on the cost line. So I'm just wondering if this is just trying to be prudent or should we read it as a bit more cost inflation than expected?

[Tim Albertsen, executive]

I think, I mean, overall, for the year '24, we were at 63.2%. And you're right, from -- if you take our 60% in Q4 and perhaps down to 55%, but it's a 5 percentage points over the full year basically. So I think you could maybe say that we are probably in the lower end of the guidance at this point. But, I mean, we still talk about a significant step compared to the full year. And of course, it's not coming in day 1. This is something that will come in over the year. And of course, the OpEx synergies are mainly coming in, in the second part of the year as we do the integrations. As we said, we just did Italy and Sweden, which means they will now be in [ hyper-care ] for 2 to 3 months, and then we actually start adjusting the organization accordingly.

So the real benefits will be in the second part of '25 in that sense. So I don't think we would say we are conservative, but probably -- would say that we are probably in the lower end of the guidance, at least where we are right now.

[Operator]

Gentlemen, Mr. Albertsen, there are no more questions registered at this time. I'll turn the conference back to you for any closing remarks.

[Tim Albertsen, executive]

Okay. Well, thank you all for your attention and your questions. And as always, our Investor Relations teams are ready to answer any further questions you might have. I think there was a few ones we wanted to get back on, which we will do in the coming hours, I guess, but don't hesitate to reach out to us through them, and thanks for your attention. Have a good day. Thank you.