eDreams Odigeo SA

OTC:EDDRF

Earnings Call Transcript

[David de la Roz, executive]

As always, you can find the results materials including the presentations and our results report on the Investor Relations sections of our website.I would like inform you that today's presentation will be longer than usual. It will be broken out in two parts. Part one, we focus on our results for the first half of the current financial year. And part two, we focus on our performance and our Capital Markets Day 1 year ago and update on our progress towards our 3-year guidance.I will now pass you over to Dana Dunne, our CEO, who will take you through the first part of the presentation.

[Dana Dunne, executive]

Thank you, David. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Throughout the first half of this financial year, FY '23, we've seen the travel market continuing to improve and recover significantly. Even with the conflict in Ukraine, even with high inflationary pressures, even with flight disruptions and outbreaks of COVID, people have clearly demonstrated that they want to travel and are willing to spend their money on it.We've been saying this for over a year now based upon survey data from consumers and actual data based upon what consumers have done over the past 50 years when there have been significant macroeconomic shocks. I know that this could counter to a number of high-paid industry experts and their reports and their assertions have been wrong to date.Within this market context, we've demonstrated superior performance within our industry. In fact, we are now at 5 quarters in a row above pre-COVID levels in bookings and no other global travel business has achieved this. And we have a unique model that's more driven by a stream of recurring revenues from other subscription businesses versus any other travel company.Please turn to Slide 6, which is a summary of our performance of the first half of our fiscal year 2023 results. In the first half of FY '23, we again achieved strong bookings, reaching EUR 8.6 million. We continue to gain market share and consequently, remain well on track to exceed our FY '25 guidance.So the key highlights for today's presentation are: first, we have again achieved strong bookings growth. In FY '23, bookings were up 50% year-on-year and 48% above pre-COVID-19 levels. This is despite all of the disruptions in the travel market from COVID, Ukraine war, flight disruption, inflation. And we know that the travel market has yet to fully recover to pre-COVID levels.Despite these macroeconomic headwinds, even our most recent booking numbers still show strong growth with our bookings in October up 45% versus 2019 pre-COVID levels. And in November from the 1 to 8, also up 45% again versus 2019 levels. There's no doubt consumers want to travel and they want to travel with us. There's a reason why travel is the largest in this category. Online travel provides the unique experience that people cherish, they desire and are willing to spend on this.The second highlight we'll share with you today, both prime and our market prime meaning our market-leading subscription product and eDO continue to outperform. eDO bookings continue to outperform and are materially better than the market. While the market remains below pre-COVID levels, we continue to trade significantly above pre-COVID levels now having achieved our fifth consecutive quarter above pre-COVID levels.Above all, our business has increased its quality with the pivot to subscription. It has higher repeat rates and become more profitable year-by-year as prime customers renew. In Q2 FY '23, we reached 3.6 million subscribers, to a run rate of 479,000 per quarter during the first half of FY '23. This is an increase of 8% versus FY '22 quarterly run rate and 47% versus FY '21 quarterly levels.Over a year ago, we started a super high growth in adding new Prime members. One year on now the net new adds are now stabilizing with the effective churn from all the new members added over a year ago. The third highlight today is that in the first half of FY '23, revenue margin and cash revenue margin moves above pre-COVID levels for the second consecutive quarter since April 2020.The first half of FY '23 revenue margin and cash revenue margin exceeded pre-COVID-19 levels by 3% and 12% respectively. Cash revenue margin in the first half of FY '23 increased 69% versus the same period last year, with bookings up 50% and the increase in revenue margin per booking of 15%, driven by the increased quality of our business following the pivot to subscription.Overall, the first half of FY '23 has seen the continuation of the improving trends we saw in FY '23 and a return to profitability. Cash marginal profit stood at EUR 74.4 million. That's an increase of 51% versus the amount in FY '22. And as expected, strong cash EBITDA in the second quarter of FY '23, which resulted in EUR 34.5 million in the first half of FY '23. And this is up 78% versus the same period last year.As guided in the first quarter, the strong growth in Prime members in their initial year delayed growth and profitability since profitability of Prime member grows in the second year. In addition, it is important to note that if instead of reaching 3.6 million members in the end of Q2 FY '23, if we had just reached 3.5 million members, that means just 110,000 less net adds, this would have resulted in eDO achieving an 18% cash EBITDA margin instead of the 13% you see reported. That means cash EBITDA margin would have been 5 points higher if we had just added a 110,000 less net subscribers.Fourth highlight. One year on from setting out our self-imposed targets for FY '25, we are well on track to meeting them. Prime members, despite a host of negative macroeconomic factors that occurred after we set our target of 7.25 million members by the end of FY '25, we are on track to meet or exceed that target. Our net adds run rate is ahead of expectations. And our trend rates are slightly improving and we are confident we will meet or exceed the target.ARPU, ARPU is converging with our guidance of EUR 80 per user and we are confident we will meet the guidance. Cash EBITDA, our Q2 FY '23 results demonstrate that as a percent of the year, 2-plus Prime members increases that our margins increase. Our most recent results clearly demonstrate we are well on track to meet our target of over EUR 180 million of cash EBITDA in FY '25.So in sum, we really believe we've got the right model, right people, right structure to seize and deliver the exciting opportunities ahead of us.Now I'll take you through more details. Please turn to Slide 8, where I'll go through eDO's outperformance. As I referred to earlier, eDO achieved strong bookings growth in the first half of FY '23, reaching 8.6 million bookings in the semester. This is 48% greater than the pre-COVID levels. And if we look at the most recently figures of October, November, we have continued to experience strong growth of 45% above pre-COVID-19 levels in October and the first 8 days of November. All of this has been achieved under the Ukraine war, COVID, high inflationary pressure, flight disruptions, et cetera.Also, I would like to add that despite the excellent performance in October, November, as we move away from COVID comparisons, we do expect to return to a more normal autumn and winter trading pattern. This means we will likely start to see a return to more normal seasonality. And this, in turn, would mean that we will likely have a lower number of absolute bookings in the month leading up to Christmas and therefore, also a higher absolute booking in January and February, of course.Please turn to Slide 9. eDreams ODIGEO has consistently outperformed against peers as evidenced by IATA public data and recent results from low-cost carriers. This results in market share gains and highlights our superior proposition to customers as well as the strength and adaptability of our business model. However, I would also like to highlight that as corporate travel returns, this gap probably will close to. eDO outperform versus regular airlines, IATA by 64 percentage points and versus low cost by 40 percentage points in the second quarter of this financial year.Please now turn to Slide 10. As we already highlighted in our FY '22 results presentation, over the past 40 years, even during recessions, energy crises, high inflationary environment, et cetera, passenger traffic has mostly grown. While there always is uncertainty in the future situation with a unique set of factors, based on prior market performance, they were, in fact, only 3 years during the period of 1980 to 2019, in which passenger numbers declined and the largest decline was 2.6%, which occurred in 1991.Please turn to Slide 11. Even with inflation, even benefits from highly variable cost structure, resulting eDO being less impacted as most of the variable costs are linked to volume levels. 85% of our costs in the second quarter of FY '23 over the last 12 months are variable and this is on a business that is profitable and growing.With that, let me now pass it over to David, who will take you through in more detail our financial results.

[David Corrales, executive]

Thank you, Dana. If you could all please turn to Slide 13 of the presentation, I will take you through the financial results in more detail.Our new KPIs showed a strong growth in prime cash revenue margin and marginal profit in the last 12 months due to the exponential growth in Prime members. Our average revenue per user, or ARPU, as we have already highlighted, is converging with a guidance of EUR 80 per user. However, as previously outlined, we did not expect the previous levels to be sustainable and we maintain our long-term guidance of EUR 80 per user.So as expected, the evolution in this quarter was driven by the phasing out of the second quarter of fiscal year '22 in the last 12 months calculation. That was a quarter in which we had a material increase in revenues and there was a sudden increase in travelers due to the rollout of vaccination. The strong growth in cash revenue margin and cash marginal profit has led to 42% and 54% of our last 12 months cash revenue margin and cash marginal profit respectively now being delivered for Prime members versus 38% and 50%, respectively, just 1 year ago.I would like to remind you that profitability of Prime members increased substantially from the second year as customer acquisition costs reduced very significantly. Once we have a larger proportion of our Prime members in the second-year cohort and subsequent years of membership, the profitability of Prime will continue to improve.Please turn to Slide 14 of the presentation. During the pandemic, we continued to invest and innovate in our subscription offering and subsequently have seen remarkable results. Cash revenue margin is already above pre-COVID-19 levels by 12% and cash marginal profit and cash EBITDA will improve due to the large increase of Prime members in the year as profitability of Prime members jumps from the second year onwards.In the first half of fiscal '23, deferred revenue growth associated with Prime has obviously accelerated following the subscription of 1.9 million more new members over the course of the year. This amounts to EUR 27.5 million and that is up 48% year-on-year. Cash EBITDA with the full Prime contribution was EUR 34.5 million in the first half of the fiscal year and that's an improvement of 78% in just 1 year. As expected, strong cash EBITDA in the second quarter of the fiscal year was a loan EUR 20.5 million and that is a 42% increase versus just the quarter prior, the first quarter of this fiscal year.Please turn now to Slide 15 of the presentation. In the first half of fiscal '23, revenue margin and cash revenue margin continued with levels above pre-COVID-19 levels by 3% and 12% respectively, despite the macroeconomic headwinds and the industry disruptions. Revenue margin in the first half '23 increased 72% versus the same period last year due to higher bookings up 50% and the increase in revenue margin per booking of 15%, which was driven by the increased quality of our business with the pivot to subscription and the strong growth in our revenue diversification.Variable costs increased by 76%. The increase was caused by the rise in bookings and an increase in variable cost of booking of 18% from EUR 24 million in the first half of last fiscal year to EUR 28.2 million in the first half of fiscal '23. The cost per booking increased because of higher acquisition cost to acquire Prime members and a rising merchant costs, which are associated to higher basket values.Overall, in the first half of '23, we have seen the improving trends we guided you in the fiscal '22 and the first quarter of fiscal '23 results presentation. Cash marginal profit increased to EUR 74.4 million. That's up 51%, the amount we achieved in the previous year. And cash EBITDA grew 78% versus the same period of last year.As guided previously, the strong growth in Prime members in their initial year delays growth in profitability with profitability rising in the second year. Over the next few quarters, we expect improvements in profitability as the proportion of Prime members in the second year and beyond increases.Fixed costs increased by EUR 10 million, mainly driven by higher personnel costs and external fees, both related to the recruitment of new employees as well as some negative impact of foreign exchange. I would like to remind you that we do not expect the increase in fixed costs from the EUR 63 million in fiscal '22, the last one to EUR 100 million in fiscal '25 target to be [ linear ] because the recruitment is frontend-loaded in order to deliver on our business plan. We will show you more detailed figures on the phasing later on in the presentation.If you look at note 9.2 of our financial statements, we have increased the workforce by 201 employees year-on-year with 170 being incorporated between March to September, only 6 months. That is 34% of our target head count in less than 16% of the time. As a reminder, in total, we plan to add 500 new employees by March '25, with much of this frontloaded.As a result, adjusted EBITDA was EUR 7 million, that's EUR 34.5 million including the full contribution of Prime for a profit of 19.4% in the first half of fiscal '22, also improving the Prime contribution. Adjusted net income was a EUR 19 million loss during the first half of fiscal '23.Turning now to Slide 16. I will take you through the cash flow statement. In the first half of fiscal '23, despite Ukraine war, industry reductions, which had a good portion of the first quarter and macro headwinds, we ended the semester with a positive cash flow from operations of EUR 33 million mainly due to a working capital inflow of 19.5%. The inflow in the first half of '23 is smaller than it was in the first half of fiscal '22 due to the higher recovery of volumes that we had in the second quarter of fiscal '22.So that is July, August, September of 2021. And if you remember, that happened right after the massive vaccination and release of a good portion of the current restrictions, while in these last 6 months, the volumes have been more in line with the normal seasonality, not that big of a jump.We have managed our liquidity position well, consequence of our strong business model and active management. We have achieved this despite travel restrictions, which reduced the levels of trade. Liquidity has remained more than sufficient and stable throughout the pandemic.In fiscal '23 end of September, the liquidity position was strong at EUR 167 million after repaying EUR 3.8 million of the government-sponsored loan and another EUR 3.4 million of costs associated with refinancing. We have used EUR 16.2 million of cash in the first half of '23 for investments. That's EUR 4.5 million more than last fiscal year as we are increasing our development capacity and therefore, higher capitalization of software developed.Cash used in financing amounted to EUR 50 million compared to EUR 14.9 million from financing activities in previous year. The variation by EUR 35.5 million in financing activities mainly relates to the reimbursement of the super senior revolver credit facility by EUR 30 million and the government-sponsored loan borrowing EUR 3.8 million. These variations is offset with an increase of bank overdrafts by EUR 28.5 million. That's included in the line bank overdrafts usage in the cash flow statement.I will now turn the presentation back to Dana to do the first part of our Strategy Performance in Prime 1 year after the Capital Markets Day, which will cover a strategy overview and 2 of our self-imposed fiscal '25 targets, that is Prime members and the ARPU.

[Dana Dunne, executive]

Thanks, David. So let's now move to our strategic performance update, 1 year on from the Capital Markets Day. First, the context. Since our Capital Markets Day in November 2021, there has been a number of factors that have occurred. Omicron, Ukraine invasion, flight disruptions, high inflation levels, et cetera. So how are us -- we doing and how is the investment thesis? Exactly the same.The investment thesis in us remains exactly the same. Nothing has structurally changed. While some may think that the world's crumbled under their feet, our investment thesis is the same. And we are fully on track to meet our FY '25 guidance.So please turn to Slide 19, where I'm first going to cover some strategic priorities. As you recall, our position for the future success due to our innovative approach in travel has been proven in other industries. And there are a number of real reasons in why we are so strongly positioned for future growth. One, we're in pole position in an attractive market. The eDO addressable market is sizable, growing and attractive and eDO is positioned in the right segments, online and leisure.eDO market is one of the largest in the world. It's growing and attractive. It's still in the recovery phase coming from an all-time low and continues to grow. Moreover, time and time again, leisure consumers have proven that they want to travel and will prioritize travel versus other things. And that your travel is not substitutable.In our year-end results, we shared data from surveys showing consumers would give up other discretionary spending versus travel. The results we have seen published in the last few weeks by some retail companies in comparison with our results and those of other travel companies already confirm this in actual data. You have seen our bookings over the past year and the most recent quarter. We have been substantially above pre-COVID levels for 5 quarters now.Please turn to Slide 20 of the presentation. The second reason, within travel, eDO is the global flight leader, excluding China and over 3x large with size of the second player in Europe.Please turn to Slide 21 of the presentation. The third reason, eDO has demonstrated the ability to capture new customers through the Prime program while also converting existing customers. Prime's #1 travel subscription program in the world with over 60% of our Prime customers being new customers, who have not used an [ e20 ] product during the last 3 years. This demonstrated that the Prime proposition is attractive and appealing, not only for existing customers, i.e., our 24 million plus customer base who have booked business over the past several years, but also for new members too and this in part explains why we are building market share.One of the many virtues of Prime is that it attracts new members, almost 2 million just in the last 12 months. So whichever way you look at it, Prime is successful, delights customers, grows our market share and is mutually beneficial for our customers, the company and shareholders.Please turn to Slide 22 of the presentation. I would like to reemphasize that we believe regardless of the current macroeconomic uncertainties, our business model and track record positions us to outperform the industry. We have demonstrated that we are the platform where customers prefer to book their travels. This is driven by, first, through Prime, we offer best prices, value and customer experience. Second, because we meet the customer needs more than competitors through best of choice to speed our overall experience, after-sales service and so many other things that have taken us years to perfect, this results in higher customer satisfaction scores from our competitors.Three, also customers now in more challenging economic times, will focus on price even more as their discretionary income comes under pressure. This plays to our strength and value proposition. Fourth, in addition to all that, we have scale and resilience via Prime with 3.8 million plus subscribers, which leads to business resiliency given the higher stickiness of subscribers, margin expansion after initial acquisition and giving us a much higher share of wallet of the travel industry they continue to consume.Let's now turn to Slide 23 of the presentation. As a result, you can see we're well-positioned wealth finance and we are on our way to meeting our self-imposed FY '25 targets. And I want to remind you what those targets are. First target, Prime member over 7.25 million members. Second target, Prime ARPU of around EUR 80; and third target, cash EBITDA in excess of EUR 180 million. We announced the 3 targets to the market 1 year ago.So very solid and important question is, how are we doing 1 year on? We will now dedicate time discussing in more detail each of these 3 targets to explain based on actual performance why we are so confident 1 year on that we will meet and exceed each of these 3 FY '25 targets.So if you could please turn to Slide 26. Let me start with the first target, Prime members. We are on track to reach the 7.25 million members by FY '25. And so why are we so confident in this? There are 5 reasons. First, because our quarterly Prime net adds run rates achieved to-date are well ahead of the implied member run rates we required to achieve the target on a market that is still below pre-COVID levels and with all of the external macroeconomic effects that we talked about since we set the target.Within this point, we also need to remind you that 1 year after the start of super high growth in Prime net adds, gross adds will be partially offset by churn applying to a higher Prime member base. So going forward, to maintain levels of circa 500 net adds per quarter will become more challenging in the short-term, but exceeding the implied figure needed to hit on a quarterly basis from now to March '25 is absolutely doable.In addition, we still have improvements to launch for Prime, which improves our run rate as well as launching Prime in new countries also improves that run rate as we increase our total addressable market. And also, market recovery can help as well. All these give us full confidence in exceeding our FY '25 target of 7.25 million Prime members.Please move to Slide 27. Reason two of why we are confident to exceed the 7.25 million subscribers by March '25 is because we operate in a huge addressable market and have overlaid very realistic to conservative assumptions. We continue to converge our existing customers. We capitalize on a base of 24 million non-Prime customers who have booked with us over the past 3 years.In addition, we continue to convert a massively large non-customer base. We have only 5% of the European flight market and more than 60% of new Prime members are new customers to us. So while we are growing dramatically our market share, frankly, there's still 95% to go after up to our assumptions, very realistic. The implied penetration target of Prime is 2.4% of households across 9 markets in which we currently offer Prime to reach the 7.25 million members for FY '25. This also assumes that we do not launch Prime in any additional markets.Also in the market, we have been offering in the longest France. We are already at 3.8% penetration of France households. So again, 2.4% is very conservative. And I want to point out one very important fact. France, our oldest market is still growing exceptionally strong to not getting anywhere near its long-term growth levels. This bodes well for years 2026 through 2030, there's still large growth to be had even after achieving our FY '25 targets.The rest of the Prime markets we operate in Europe and average in their third year have reached a 1.5% penetration households. This actually is a bit better than the penetration we had in France after year 3. There's no reason why we can't achieve in those other European markets the same penetration of households we have in France after 5 years and push on to even much higher levels.Please move to Slide 28. This is related to my last point and our long-term growth prospects beyond 2025. Subscription companies showed high growth and penetration over many years, and our specific data supports this as well for eDO.Please move to Slide 29. We think [indiscernible] is that Prime has demonstrated the ability to capture customers even during major macroeconomic events like COVID, Ukraine war, flight disruptions, high inflations ever. Prime continues to attract new subscribers.Please move to Slide 30. It's also important to note that our churn rates are improving slightly.If you now -- can you please turn to Slide 33? We discussed in this section our second KPI, which we set a year ago called ARPU. One year on from our ARPU, it is on track to meet our FY '25 guidance as well. Over the past quarters, we have repeatedly said that ARPU will converge around the FY '25 guidance of EUR 80 per user and this is exactly what is happening. The evolution in this quarter was driven by the phasing out of Q2 FY '22 in the last 12-month calculation. Q2 FY '22 was a quarter in which we had a material increase in revenues due to a sudden increase in travelers due to the rollout of the vaccine in early to mid-2021.We do expect, and this is within our 3-year plan, in the next few quarters to trend to ARPUs in the mid-EUR 70s as a bigger base of Prime members reduces the gap between average and end-of-period members. Later on, as we roll out new Prime products and features, ARPU will trend back to our FY '25 target of EUR 80.I will now turn the presentation back to David to cover the last of our self-imposed FY '25 KPI targets, cash EBITDA. And I will then come back to you to do some final closing remarks before we open the webcast for Q&A.

[David Corrales, executive]

Thank you, Dana. Let's now move to our third KPI, which is the cash EBITDA. You have seen in part 1 of today's presentation, cash EBITDA is starting to show as expected the desired results. This is a key metric and we think it is important for us to discuss in detail our progress on this and the fundamentals underlying this.As noted by Dana, the investment thesis in us remains exactly the same. Nothing has structurally changed and the numbers we're going to see prove that we are on track and on our way to meet our self-imposed fiscal '25 target of over EUR 180 million of cash EBITDA.Please move to Slide 36. This is a slide or similar to a slide that we presented at the time of the Investor Day, which shows how cash marginal profit margins increase as Prime members become more mature. You will recall that in year 1 of a customer's membership, we do incur considerable customer acquisition costs or CAC. However, from the second booking and after renewal, the profitability builds and there is no meaningful CAC thereafter.On Slide 36, you see 3 different perspectives of cash margin above margins. The first one on the left is the one we presented 12 months ago at the Capital Markets Day. This was an illustrative example based on just one customer joining on day 1 of the first year. In the middle version on the chart, we show the actual numbers as of September 2022.Clearly, not all customers join day 1 of the quarter for the financial year. So this takes into account all of the timing differences and the aggregation of all of those customers. The right side shows the expectation we have for fiscal '25. As you can see, we continue to be on track with our financial target for fiscal '25. All in all, our cash margin and profit margins are on track to meet our fiscal '25 guidance.If you could please turn to Slide 37. This slide shows you the breakout of our subscribers between year 1 and year 2 onwards. And as that percent changes, so too does the average company cash marginal profit. On the left-hand side is the Prime cost marginal profit margin with the current mix of year 1 and year 2, which is 61% of revenue coming from year 1, 39% of revenue coming from year 2 and subsequent years.So taking the figure of margins from the [ baseline ] and multiplying by the actual split of revenue coming from Prime members in the first year versus second subsequent years, we obtained the aggregate cost marginal profit for the Prime side of our business. And on the right-hand side, we show the same mechanism, but for figures that we expect to achieve in fiscal '25 according to our business planning guidance.You can see clearly that as a percentage of revenue coming from year 2 and subsequent number increases, the aggregate margin increases in a mathematical way. Conceptually, as a portion of year 2-plus members increases, so do our margins since year 2 members have very low CAC. Thus, as you can see, margins will increase progressively from now to fiscal '25 although given the return, we expect to the normal travel seasonality, there can be variations from one quarter to another.Please move to Slide 38. This is another example in which we showed this mechanic, but for the last 3 quarters that we have published, specifically for the last 3 quarters as the increase in the weight of year 2-plus numbers rises from the fourth quarter of '22, this is clearly reflected in the cash marginal profit of the Prime business. An increase of 15 index points in year 2-plus from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of '23 resulted in an increase of 4 points in cash marginal profit margin.And a 45-point increase in the year 2 from the last quarter of last fiscal year to the second quarter of this fiscal year, resulted in an increase of 12 points in cash marginal profit margins for the Prime business, which is 3x the 4 points as such, totally correlated. This shows how a slow increase in margins was driven by the strong growth in the Prime year 1 subscribers in the past 12 months. And at this stage is over time, we can see the impact on the Prime margins and the overall margins of the business.Please move to Slide 39. Another way to look at this is doing a sensitivity analysis on the Prime members, where we use the following assumptions as a base. All the numbers in this chart, there is a stable assumption in churn and the variation of the member growth is reached through variation in the investment in paid channels, i.e., more investment in paid channels, more members, less investment in paid channels, less members. And that would result in acquiring less time first and also getting less non-Prime bookings.As you can see on the chart, a result of different growth in members translates into higher or lower cash marginal profit margins. The higher the growth in the short-term, the lower the margins and vice-versa.Please move now to Slide 40. And this is to complete the picture for further down the P&L and cash flow. And in the past, we have given the end of fiscal '25 number for both the fixed costs and the CapEx. They're both proceeding according to plan. But given the level of success that we've had and we're pushing on acquiring more talent to develop the new product of services that we know there's demand for in our member base is more frontloaded in '23 and '24. And this, of course, has that short-term impact on cash EBITDA, but it is built into our 3-year plan budget.If you could now please move to Slide 41. This slide, the same as for the cash marginal profit, this is the cash EBITDA margins. So this is exactly the same analysis that we presented 2 slides before, but adding the fixed costs in the results of the sensitivity. As you can see, if we were to have a run rate of 547,000 net Prime members per quarter from now until fiscal '25, that would result in 9 million Prime members in fiscal '25, then you would have cash EBITDA margins of 18%. If we were to have 364,000 run rate of members per quarter which is the linear progression from where we are today to the 7.25 million members, we would reach cash EBITDA margins of 22% as guided.Now please move to Slide 42. Many of you have asked how our margins may look like beyond fiscal '25, where our fixed costs are stabilized around the base of EUR 100 million that will grow with inflation and the CAC continues to be reduced as the weight of year 2-plus members continues to grow. And again, let's be clear, this is only for illustrative purposes. These are not final targets. This is not a guidance. It is just a result of a sensitivity analysis to the growth in Prime members.We have run 2 scenarios for you. The scenario 1 is starting a scenario. What happens if we were to grow 0 after fiscal '25. This is totally unrealistic, but it is just a case for you to see what would happen to the margins. Assuming no increase in household penetration in existing markets, we don't launch Prime in any new markets, there are no new products or Prime fares, all of them not realistic assumptions. But even this, we'll get our cash EBITDA margins to grow from 22% to 27% just by doing nothing.In a scenario 2, we assume that we maintain the net quarterly adds run rate of 364,000. That's the one that gets us from today in a straight line to fiscal '25 to reach 7.25 million members. As you remember, in fiscal '25, we get nowhere near what would be a reasonable household penetration figure. So there are years more growth to achieve. As you can see, the cash EBITDA margins despite the growth can grow from 22% to 26%.Again, this is too far away, this is hard to predict, but we thought the sensitivity analysis will help you to understand the business better and help you as well to build your models. Most importantly, it should help you to understand the huge potential, which will drive superior returns, excellent service for customers, at the same time, transforming and revolutionizing the industry.I will now turn the presentation back to Dana.

[Dana Dunne, executive]

Thank you, David. As you can see 1 year on from the Capital Markets Day, we are well on track to meet or exceed our FY '25 guidance and we have huge potential beyond FY '25. In addition, we want to share with you some other KPIs that underpin the strong long-term fundamentals of our business.Please move to Slide 45. An important KPI is customer advocacy, which leads to sustainability and growth. You have seen how rapidly Prime is growing and we could not do this without the strong customer advocacy. As you know, we currently do not advertise Prime per se and we rely largely on word of mouth. As you can see, our NPS scores have continued to increase since our Capital Markets Day a year ago. And already a year ago, we're extremely high for travel-related products.If you could please move to Slide 46. Another way to look at customer advocacy is via third-party surveys like Trustpilot. Trustpilot is the review platform where people around the world raise their experience in different businesses from more than 5. It shows that we rank meaningfully better than any other OTA in our airline. And second, we are the only one that has improved over the past 12 months despite all the flight disruptions that there have been.Please move to Slide 47. Prime provides a win-win proposition for our customers and eDO. As you can see on this slide, Prime members visit us more often and have higher repeat bookings to non-Prime members.Please move to Slide 48. All in all, we have achieved and will continue to achieve significant value creation for eDO through Prime. The success of our Prime model is demonstrated both by our high growth from the number of members together with the value it creates and a business with higher LTV and lower CAC over the long run. We continue to achieve an LTV to CAC range between 2 and 3x. Let me leave you with one final closing remark before we move to the Q&A session.If you can please move to Slide 50. Overall, we strongly believe eDO is unique in terms of profitability and growth. The subscription model has been proven in other industries, such as Netflix for video streaming, Costco for groceries and goods, Spotify for music streaming and the list goes on and on.Yet we are not just copying. We are innovating and doing some things that no one else has done. As a proof point, we continue to satisfy the rule of 40. In fact, we do that better than all our subscription peers which are profitable and good growth businesses. Overall, eDO has become a much higher quality business with a pivot to our subscription model. This delivers loyal and repeating customers, resulting in a more profitable and predictable business and with sustainable relationships with customers. We have high underlying profitability and huge growth potential.All of this will drive superior returns for shareholders. We will deliver excellent service for customers while at the same time transforming and revolutionizing the industry.

[David Corrales, executive]

Thank you, Dana. And with that, we would now like to take your questions and we will answer the questions sent to us in writing in the webcast. We're going to take questions on a first come, first serve basis. Given that we've extended our prepared remarks more than usual, we are going to group questions of similar nature. So those that are clearly repeated, I will not even read. Should we not have time to respond to questions on the webcast, the Investor Relations team will make sure that those are answered afterwards.So I'm going to start with the list that I have here. The first set of questions comes from Juan Pena from GVC Gaesco. The first one says I see that the revenue per booking is rising and you already have a good base of second year Prime clients. Why doesn't it show in the operating profit and EBITDA cost margin in the sense that both dropped versus the second quarter of fiscal '22?Now there are 2 elements explaining that. The first one is that the marketing investment is higher to drive the growth of Prime members in general. And that is much higher than in the second quarter of fiscal '22 and has become higher particularly since, I would say, third quarter, fourth quarter of fiscal '22. That is the most important part. When there has been more customers coming generally into the travel market to make travel searches, it's when we have taken up our marketing investment because there are just more customers that are potential targets for us to become Prime members. And that's the main reason, actually.But if you look sequentially as how the margins are behaving as opposed to comparing to the second quarter of fiscal '22, you will see that the margins are growing quite healthily in the fourth quarter of '22 and in the first quarter of '23, they were at 21% in cash marginal profit. In this last quarter, we published the 26%. And I would encourage you to look again that those are the take -- aggregate margins of the business. I would encourage you to look again at this line and I have just covered recently, which looks specifically at the Prime side of the business and where you can see very clearly the correlation between the margin and the increase in the percentage of customers coming from year 2 [indiscernible].The next set of questions come from Chadd Garcia of Schwartz Investment.The first one says, you're not on the churn says that it's a weighted average of involuntary and voluntary churn. Can you explain the differences and the relative size of each category? Dana, I think you're better off taking this one.

[Dana Dunne, executive]

Absolutely. So first of all, a voluntary churn is when a customer proactively takes action to discontinue being a customer. And that means, for example, they call our contact center. They go into the app and click on discontinue Prime, et cetera, right? It's an action baseline. Involuntary churn is the opposite, meaning the customer hasn't done anything. So when the renewal comes up at day 366 and we go to present or to collect, so to speak, for the new renewal, we're unable to. So it's failure to collect.This is something that is more prominent and present in Europe and not -- the system is not the same as in the U.S. A typical leisure travel customer has a credit card that lapse on average in most countries 3 years. And then it will expire in the new and give them a new -- in many countries, we'll give them a new set of numbers. And so the mechanism of passing on those numbers, et cetera, is not nearly as set up and established as in the U.S., the States. And so what that means is that we have a disproportionate amount of failure to collect or what we call involuntary churn. And as we've said in previous times, the involuntary churn category is far larger, the far larger bucket of the total churn as well. I think that's it.

[David Corrales, executive]

Yes. So the second question is the business should start to naturally deleverage given the cash generation and the EBITDA growth. What do you expect to see for leverage at the end of fiscal '25?So this is explicit guidance that we gave in the Investor Day a year ago and we have reiterated it and you can find it as well written in this lining, which are called the investments and the fixed cost. Now when you have a bullet point that reiterates what I'm about to say, which is that we expect for the end of fiscal '24, so 1.5 years from now we will be between just below 2x of net leverage. That's the net leverage in which you have in the numerator net debts and in the denominator, you have cash EBITDA. And by the end of fiscal '25, we will be between 1x and 2x. So yes, there is a material deleveraging that we expect happening because we are now standing at 6.5x. So we're going from 6.5 in 1 year to just under 2 and in what, 1.5 years to just under 2 and in 2.5 years to between 1 and 2.The next question says, given your success in growing Prime, is it fair to say that once you return to normal travel seasonality, your revenue and earnings should be less impacted as you're becoming more driven by Prime subscriptions as opposed to bookings?It is true that we will become less dependent on seasonality. But there is also something to take in account is that the Prime revenue is coming from subscription. Out of the EUR 80 you have EUR 55 that come from subscription and that's a part that is stable, but you have another EUR 30, EUR 25, EUR 30 that come from the revenue related to the bookings done during the period by the customers. And those bookings done during the period by the customers will have a relationship to seasonality. So is the way that seasonality going to be smaller, yes. Is it going to disappear? No. There's always going to be some element of seasonality.The next question from this investor. I would assume -- this is the last one. I would assume that after the first year, a Prime customer knows if they like the program or not. Then to your LTV to CAC range of 2 to 3x assume a finite life to a Prime member, which may not happen. And you are correct in that our LTV calculations and therefore, the LTV to CAC is for a period of 2 years. So we just had the first renewal inside. It doesn't have the second, the third, the fourth renewal.Now other companies choose more, let's say, lax ways of measuring LTV, and they go to 36 months or to 48 months. Ours is particularly stringent. We just look at 2 years. So that return is the return of 24 months of the customer. Will the customer disappear, right, and not do any more business with us? No, we don't think so, right? But that is the way that we calculate LTV and LTV to CAC.The next set of questions comes from [ Patrios ], [ Farwell ]. And the first one says marginal profit margins fell by 500 bps year-on-year in France. Why given it's your most mature market, shouldn't we see this increasing? Well, there is indeed a positive effect of the growth in the year 2 members, but this is offset by 2 things. The first one is that we've actually had in our oldest market, record high levels of new subscribers in Prime in France.And actually, if you look at this line in which we show the progression of the household penetration in France and the number of households hasn't changed, so this is all driven by changes in the numerator. Over this last 6 months, we've broken the records in terms of new adds in France. So the number of sign-ups in France continues to be very, very positive. The second thing that is a bit unique about France is that last year, we already benefited in France of better recovery versus other countries, which was driven by different factors, but one of them, for instance, is that there was state help in France with respect to free testing for travel. We didn't have to pay the PCR tests, which in some places, it was north of EUR 100. And there was also unemployment help even to French people resuming a good level of savings.The second question says, why was there an outflow in working capital in the quarter? And the answer to that is that what drives for -- specifically for the quarter. So taking the Q2 in isolation, the working capital is the last 2 weeks of trading of June versus the last 2 weeks of trading of September. And in that period, when you compare second half September had a slight decrease in bookings, about 1% to 2%. And it had also a slight decrease in air fares so that the basket size of the bookings that we did in the second half of September was slightly lower than the basket size of the bookings that we did in the second half of June, which is seasonally normal. When you start to approach the autumn period, airlines usually reduce their -- the price of the fares, and that has happened this year as well coming back to what we said that is more normal seasonality now.The third question from this investor says, most competitors' bookings [indiscernible] have returned to pre-COVID operating profit levels. Interims is yet to get there due to increased marketing expense, can you discuss the short-term and long-term trade-off here?Well, different competitors have different business models. We have a business model, but you see that we have more than 50% now driven by subscription and that is a fundamental difference between us and the other travel companies. Our business model is more sustainable, more stable. But you have that the first year, right, the CAC is relatively high and you have low profitability and we are having a super high increase in the number of Prime members. Now we've talked at the beginning about the sensitivity, right? And that sensitivity was one in which we have grown instead of growing by 400,000 net adds, we have grown by 110,000 less, so 290 instead of having a cash EBITDA margin of 15%, which is what we have printed for the quarter, we would have had 18%.Now in the longer term, which is also what is mentioned in the question, we provided you 3 or 4 different slides with sensitivities that you can look at the cash margin and profit level, that you can look at the cash EBITDA level from here to fiscal '25 and even simulations of what could happen after fiscal '25 depending on the different levels of growth in the Prime member base. So I think you have plenty to digest that and look forward to your questions after you have an opportunity to digest that.The fourth question from this investor says that there seems to have been a drop in value per booking this quarter versus last quarter. Any particular reason? Now I have to assume that the expression value per quarter we meet mains basket size of bookings because when I look at the capture of demand for booking, it's been going up consistently over the last 4 quarters. If I look at the cash marginal profit per booking, it's going up consistently over the last 3 quarters from a level of about EUR 7.5 to almost EUR 10. So it has to be basket size. Now the basket size, I just replied to about 2 questions before. In the end of June, we had a basket size which was approaching EUR 400. In the end of September, we had a basket size which was approaching about EUR 370 more or less in broad terms. And that is defined by the evolution of the airfares in the market.And then the last question from this investor says, you mentioned new features that will drive ARPU in later years. Can you talk more about these features?Well, I can talk in a broad sense because we generally do not disclose a feature that is about to come until it actually comes because we would be giving undue clues to our competitors. But you know that we are working on a number of developments, new products and services. They're broadly going to be in the area of hotels and more new ancillaries that we'll be able to put in the hands of customers. And this goes in line with the increase in the development resources that we are hiring because we have a lot to do, and we have things that we know are going to have strong demand from our customers and we're trying to develop them and put them live as quickly as we can.There is a set of questions from Carlos Trevino of Banco Santander. The first one says the expected drop in ARPU on next quarter is fully driven by the explained mathematical impact of Prime ads or other impacts? And if this will be the case, which ones?And the answer is very simple. It's mainly driven by the denominator effects. So this is not us either reducing fares or increasing a lot of discounts or what have you. This is a denominator effect, not a numerator effect. The second question says, additionally, you expect to reach the target at EUR 80 adding new Prime products -- sorry, [indiscernible]. Additionally, you expect to reach targeted EUR 80 adding new Prime products and features. Does this mean that with the current Prime offering, your ARPU would be below that level?Well, with the current prime offering, our ARPU is going to trend for set -- for the next few quarters to about the mid-EUR 70s and that is a mathematical effect of the denominator. The Prime offering is going to improve significantly with the software developers that we have in-house plus the new ones that we are incorporating.The third question says assuming that we could see lower seasonal bookings in the third quarter than in the second quarter, should we also expect lower Prime net adds in the third quarter than in the second quarter? Yes, that is correct because at the end of the day, the number of people that we increase in the Prime member base is a function of the number of people that is searching for travel in the market. And naturally, the number of people searching for travel between October and December is lower than the number of people searching for travel between July and September. Conversely, we also expect that the number of people looking for travel in January to March will be superior to the one of the quarter ended December. So we do expect that, say, the normal seasonality of the business is clearly coming back for period go down like Q3 and for the period will go up like the Q4.We have now a question from [ Gerard Villen ] of [ Morals Capital ] . The first question says on Page 30 of the presentation, you mentioned that churn has improved by 2% from year 1 members and 4% for year 2-plus numbers. To what level is this improvement from? I'm afraid that we don't disclose. This is a highly competitive metric. Actually, you will not see in any subscription company that caters to casinos or B2C as opposed to B2B. And we don't think that we should be disclosing that part.The second is, the cash balance is down to EUR 2.8 million, excluding overdrafts and other short-term borrowings. How comfortable are you with liquidity given we are entering a seasonal low H2 for bookings and working capital outflow?Well, what I'd say is that the level of cash is not that relevant. And that number of EUR 2.8 million is one which you have subtracted the overdraft, which is just another way of drawing from the revolving credit facility. The metric that is actually important is the one of total liquidity, which is including all of the availability and the credit facilities, that is close to EUR 170 million. It's actually EUR 167 million. And that's in advance. I mean, we're sitting now in the middle of November. So there are 6 weeks left of the low seasonality. So yes, we feel very comfortable that that is more than enough to go through that period.The next question says, have you discussed the company's improved performance and positive outlook with rating agencies? And what has been their feedback and indication of when they might consider improving the company's low credit rating?

[Dana Dunne, executive]

Well, we have -- I think we just published this, and therefore, we have another opportunity to discuss this set of results with them. But to temper your, I would say, very rational desires, the rating agencies are insiders of our budget of projections. And what we are publishing is in line with what we had in the budget. So I don't think that it changes their perception other than 1 quarter more of us delivering on the results and proving that we do what we say we're going to do. But when exactly they will change the rating, we need to see.

[David Corrales, executive]

And the next set of questions come from [ Bruce Ivory ] of [ Janey Capital ]. The first one says, what were the gross adds for Prime in the first half of '23? I'm sorry, but we don't disclose gross adds. And the other 2 questions are repeated.The next set of questions come from [ Edward Ortega ] of Societe Generale. The first one says, do you expect revenue from traffic customer to recover to pre-pandemic levels? This figure is still well below pre-pandemic levels. And while total revenue margin has almost recovered to pre-pandemic levels.Well, the classic customer revenues include the discounts to Prime members in size, whereas they do not include the increase in deferred revenue. So as being a subscription company and having now more than 50% of our bookings of profit coming from Prime members, that is going to increase to more than 80% according to our guidance in fiscal '25. I don't think that we will ever recover the revenue from classic customers that we had before the pandemic. What matters is the total revenue that we get in the business. And in the case of [ business ] progress, the ARPU that we get from them.That is the last of the questions that we have. And therefore, we're going to close the presentation now. We want to thank everyone for joining us in the webcast. And before we conclude the call, I would like to inform you that on Thursday, the 23rd of February, we will be hosting our conference call for the third quarter results of fiscal '23. And in the meantime, we will be very happy to receive your questions via the Investor Relations team or the investor e-mail address, which is [email protected]. I hope you have a very nice day.

[Dana Dunne, executive]

Bye.