AcadeMedia AB

STO:ACAD

Earnings Call Transcript

[Operator]

Welcome to the AcadeMedia Q2 Report 2024/2025. [Operator Instructions] Now I will hand the conference over to the speakers, CEO, Marcus Strömberg; and CFO, Petter Sylvan. Please go ahead.

[Marcus Strömberg, executive]

So good morning, everybody, and welcome to this report of our Q2 results in AcadeMedia.

And today, of course, as you all have heard, Sweden wakes up one more day with sadness and sorrow. What wasn't allowed to happen has happened. What we sometimes thought about and prepared for and hoped that we didn't have to use, has now happened. And even today, we more than we think of all the affected of the terrible things that has happened in Örebro.

AcadeMedia has an extensive operation in Örebro with both secondary schools, primary schools and adult activities. And what we know so far, nobody of our teacher and student has been affected. But security has always been important for AcadeMedia, and we had our first training for all our schools in 2016 and all our school has prepared for this. But this will, of course, affect the schools in Sweden the coming time and year.

But today, we also report the quarter 2 result of AcadeMedia. And even if this is sad times, we are very proud of what we have achieved in AcadeMedia, the time of quarter 1 and quarter 2. All our segments is reporting an improvement. We have a very strong organic growth of 6.6% and the overall company growing more than 13%.

And we are also very happy that we see that the Swedish schools that still are very important for AcadeMedia report quite good result in the international surveys. And it's called TIMSS, and we could say that if we look at the Swedish school, we are really one of the best in the world. And we think that the independent schools has been very important when it comes to this development.

AcadeMedia has also worked very hard to improve quality, and we work a lot to improve the reading results and to crack the code of reading. And we have a lot of activities, and we see a positive development. And we have also launched a fantastic books that is called ABC books that helps children to read. And in fact, I've got all the books on my desk in my office, and I can really recommend them.

And we see also a very positive development when it comes to the international part of AcadeMedia is growing. It has increased the profitability. And we are very proud that we are part of really improving Germany with child care. And it was an article in Financial Times recently talking about this, and we can really say that it truly important for the German government to improve the number of childcare places. And AcadeMedia, we will soon have our preschool 100 in Germany, and that is very positive for us.

The school voucher is, of course, important. We see positive development in Germany. But when we look at the numbers in Sweden, we think that it's stable. It's compensate for the inflation, and we have the most of the inflation behind us. Even if the numbers that was reported in Sweden today was a little bit higher than expected, we think that the school voucher will reflect the inflation and give us a stable foundation when it comes to develop the company.

And also, when we look at the Adult Education, we have worked with the vocational training for many, many years, and we now can see the results. And the development is very strong in the Adult Education, and we see that the unemployment rate in Sweden is increasing a little bit, and that is why more people go to upper secondary -- go to vocational training programs when it comes to the adult education.

And then if we just comment also a little bit more on the quality development of the company. This has really been key for AcadeMedia for many, many years. And we just reported our 13th quality report. But if we don't look at just our internal quality surveys and we look at what does the authority says, what does the school inspection say about what we do, and we can say that AcadeMedia performed really, really good.

If we compare with the public schools, with the other independent schools, we have really top quality when it comes to the service and investigations that the school inspection is doing.

And then also if we look at the grades, and that has also been key because we have a little different system if you compare with other European countries in Sweden, so we really have top line results when it comes to giving the right degrees. And this has been something that has been discussed in media a lot in Sweden. And if we look and compare with the other -- with the municipality schools and the natural average, AcadeMedia is really now performing really, really well.

And then when we look at the Adult Education, and we see what we do when it comes to vocational programs, we also have very good results if we compare with the natural average. We train people to the right jobs and they get jobs. And when it comes to times with high unemployment rate, it's really important to have the right education and to deliver good results and good payback to the society.

So the overall picture when it comes to quality in AcadeMedia, we perform very well, and we perform very well when we compare with the natural average in Sweden.

Then if we look at the financial development in the company, it's, of course, important to talk about the future, but it's also important to remind about the history. And AcadeMedia has a long, long time of good financial performance. And this year, I've been the CEO for 20 years, I'm really proud to work with all these very good people that together with me has developed AcadeMedia with 20% growth over the years. And that is, I must say, one of the best achievements that you have seen maybe in an education company.

And we are now the European leading education company. And we have also, if you go to the next picture, Hanna, increased the number of revenue that is International. So we have made the company diversified. We have made the company quality strong, financial strong. And now we have the position as the European leader in education company.

And we have a true plan to continue this development. And we have a strong growth plan in Germany. We are looking at other countries. So the foundation of AcadeMedia is stronger than ever.

[Petter Sylvan, executive]

Thank you, Marcus. Good morning, everyone. It's exciting to take over and reflect upon that we have a long history of good financial strength and with good quality, as Marcus described, and now we can add yet another good quarter.

If we move on to -- thank you. As Marcus outlined earlier, we achieved a good growth of 13.4% with contributions from the acquisitions of Touhula in Finland, amounting to 6.9%. Additionally, our adjusted profit margin increased to 5.6%, which is to be compared to last year's 4.6%, reaching SEK 280 million in absolute terms, up from SEK 204 million. And finally, this increased profit has translated into correspondingly higher free cash flow.

Now turn to next page, please. The improved adjusted EBIT are evident across all segments. The positive change is most notable in the Preschool and International segment, an increase of SEK 37 million is driven by overall better voucher compensation, but also retroactive revenues as well as contribution from the acquisitions of Touhula.

In the Compulsory and Upper Secondary segment, we improved the result by good cost control and increased retroactive revenues. Adult Education continued to report strong results, driven by high unemployment and better utilization rates. As we have mentioned in previous quarters, the increase in group overhead cost is a natural outcome of our growth, and the increase in this quarter of SEK 5 million is a consequence of that.

Next page, please. We move on to Page 13. So now let's look at the quarter's developments within each segment. And then we start with the Preschool and the International segment. The number of children increased by an impressive 29.4%, with growth witnessed across all countries except Sweden. And there, we had 6 units that were closed last year.

Our growth was primarily driven by the acquisitions of Touhula in Finland, along with the new preschool openings in Germany. And the International operations now account for 27% of the growth total sales this quarter.

Net sales increased by 28% compared to last year, with organic growth at 7%. Adjusted EBIT and margin increased compared to the previous year, and this year's margin, 3.7%, was up from last year's 2.2%. The operating profit increased to SEK 78 million compared to last year's SEK 31 million.

The higher margin was an effect of high retroactive revenue, temporarily lower cost in Norway and contribution from the acquisition of Touhula. The 2025 preliminary school voucher increase in Sweden is estimated to be 2.5%; and in Norway, 4.5%, which now is reflecting a lower inflation than previous year.

Moving on to Compulsory School on the next page, we note the 4.8% increase in student numbers. Net sales rose by 9.3%, driven by increased number of students and the positive impact of the annual school voucher revision. Adjusted EBIT and margin increased compared to the previous year. This year's margin reached 6.5%, up from last year's 6%, and the operating profit was SEK 77 million compared to last year's SEK 65 million.

The somewhat improved result was a consequence of acquisition as well as retroactive revenues. The 2025 preliminary school voucher increase in Sweden is estimated to be just over 3%.

Now turning to Upper Secondary School. We observed a 0.6% increase in student numbers. The sales growth of 5.1% was driven by more students as well as the annual voucher revision. The adjusted margin increased this year, 7.1%, compared to last year's 6.2%, and this was because of good cost control in the quarter and increased retroactive revenues. 2025 preliminary school voucher increase in Sweden is estimated to be 2.5%.

Moving to Adult Education on Page 16. There is a 4% increase in sales, which is attributed to a high number of students in higher vocational education and municipal adult education. Adjusted EBIT increased to SEK 60 million from previous year's SEK 46 million, with a margin of 12.2% compared to 9.7% last year.

In January 2025, the Swedish Agency for Higher Vocational Education announced that AcadeMedia had been awarded 4,700 new educational places. And this means that we defend our position as market leader with a market share of around 20%.

Let's continue to free cash flow and investments. Free cash flow for the last 12 months was close to last year in absolute terms. The free cash flow as a percentage of EBITDA is as expected, around 70%. Maintenance CapEx as a percentage of sales has slightly declined from 1.7% to 1.6%. Please continue.

And the financial position. The net debt, excluding IFRS 16, increased by SEK 35 million compared to last year. The leverage ratio, excluding IFRS 16 is 0.6, which is well below the financial target of less than 3. Including property-related lease liabilities, net debt is SEK 1.5 billion higher due to the growth, the acquisitions of Touhula and [ import ] and indexation of rents.

And finally, we move on to performance against our targets. Our organic growth, including small bolt-on acquisitions, stands at 6.6%, meeting our financial target of 5% to 7% growth. Our adjusted EBIT margin of 6.4% falls below the target range of 7.8% to 8%. The leverage ratio of 0.6 remains comfortably below the required threshold of 3.

And with these words, I end the presentation, and we open up for questions.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Johan Lönnqvist Sundén from Carnegie.

[Johan Sundén, analyst]

Congratulations to your strong results. First question from my side is just to better understand the margin pickup. And Petter, you referred to that margins benefited from some retroactive revenue in this quarter. And normally, you highlight or you quantify the amount. You haven't done this time. Can you give some ballpark guidance how much of a contribution that was in the various segments?

[Petter Sylvan, executive]

We have decided that, we believe, it doesn't make relevance to quantify it quarter-by-quarter because it's a continuous flow of retroactive compensations. And that is somewhat higher than it has been in the previous years against last year's quarter as a consequence of that inflation, the high inflation we have had.

And as a consequence of the high inflation we have had, we also have higher degree of municipalities that has had budget that they haven't been able to keep. And thereby, they had retroactively compensated by the end of the year, as a consequence of that, they concluded that they can't keep their budgets.

So we will continue to have this flow of continuous compensation retroactively. It's -- we consider it as part of our total revenue. It is slightly higher this quarter than what we have seen for some time. And with falling inflation, it probably will go down. It will be some kind of pent-up effect now.

[Marcus Strömberg, executive]

Because if we look back a few years, we had some municipalities that didn't did the school voucher in correct way, and we couldn't get the high amount from one municipality maybe for 5, 6 years back. And this is behind us, as Petter mentioned also. Now we see more municipality correcting their budget as a part of their usual work.

So it's a lot of payment from different municipalities. So this is not money coming from 5 years ago or something like that, it's more like adapting the budget year.

[Petter Sylvan, executive]

And we will most probably see the same in the coming years since they more self-correct themselves by the end of the year.

[Marcus Strömberg, executive]

They are better in self-correcting. But if you look at the numbers for 2025, now the inflation is down. So maybe the budget is more correct this year for the municipality. It has been difficult for them for 2024 and 2023. But I think it's very positive that the municipality correct without we taking them to court, because that is very positive that they understand that they have to treat the students the same.

[Johan Sundén, analyst]

Yes. And I understand your reasoning. Just I think it would be good if we have some kind of guidance or if there's any amount that normally ends up in Q3, Q4 that now happened in Q2, so we don't extrapolate this higher margin then. It should be sustainable for you.

[Petter Sylvan, executive]

Yes. It's also difficult because...

[Johan Sundén, analyst]

I think you wrote about the Preschool...

[Petter Sylvan, executive]

Sorry.

[Johan Sundén, analyst]

I think you wrote about the Preschool business, that there was some compensation that normally takes place in Q3 and Q4 that now happened in Q2 instead.

[Petter Sylvan, executive]

That's right. That's what we wrote.

[Marcus Strömberg, executive]

And that is Germany.

[Petter Sylvan, executive]

That was related to Germany, correct. Yes.

[Marcus Strömberg, executive]

So if we have the right compensation, we'll have good margins. So the problem -- if you look at the years behind, we've had a delay. We have a delay in Germany. We are now on the right track. They are compensating us in the more correct way. And as far as we get good right compensation, we have a very professional business and adapt our cost in a good way. And we see now a positive -- why we see a positive upturn is why we are better compensated.

And if you look in Germany, sometimes you get them in another quarter, and that is what happened in this quarter. But the underlying development in Germany is positive.

[Johan Sundén, analyst]

Yes, I understand that and I see that in numbers as well. If we stop on the kind of the Finnish acquisition and just to get a feeling for the seasonal pattern within the year. We had some headwinds in Q1. Now it seems as there wasn't that much of a headwind. Should we -- how is the margin profile looking throughout the year for Touhula?

[Petter Sylvan, executive]

It's -- we expect similar margin for Q2, Q3 and Q4, with a slightly improved margins quarter-by-quarter depending on how well we succeed with our improvement program. But as we have said, we have an expected -- expectation for the first year that they should have a margin within 3% to 4%. And currently, they have started in the low range and they are improving. The weakest quarter has been behind us now in Q1, as you know.

[Johan Sundén, analyst]

Okay. So stable kind of level from here, basically.

[Petter Sylvan, executive]

Yes.

[Johan Sundén, analyst]

And then on vouchers, it seems as you will be better compensated in 2025. Do you think even that there's some room for you regaining a bit on the margin side with regards to the lower kind of rent increases that is coming?

[Petter Sylvan, executive]

As we said, I mean, this year's school voucher will be just over 2.5%, and we will see exactly what it ends up with. And as you said, the rent increase in the Sweden as expected was a little bit -- yes, was 1.56% basically. So I mean that looks good.

The significant part of the cost base we have are the salaries. And as we all know, the salary revision is still unknown. But hopefully, I think we all expect and hope, given the inflation, that it will be something lower than last year.

And I think all in all, we hope that we will better compensate for this cost in the Swedish operations. But given the fact that it's very uncertain how the salary level will end up with, I don't think we expect any significant margin increase. And all in all, it highly depends on the outcome of the salary.

[Marcus Strömberg, executive]

But what we know is that the lease will increase with 1.6%.

[Petter Sylvan, executive]

Exactly. That's for sure.

[Marcus Strömberg, executive]

That's what we know.

[Johan Sundén, analyst]

Makes sense. And a final question from my side, it's on the adult business, which showed a strong margin for the second quarter in a row here. And you have historically talked about this kind of corridor of 9% to 11%, that's where you should be. Do you still think that, that corridor is relevant for this year? Or do you think you can overachieve this year? And how kind of sustainable should those margin be given the kind of swings in the labor market, et cetera, think about, say, '25, '26?

[Petter Sylvan, executive]

If you look back long historically, like 10 years or so, in the adult segment, we have typically, in average, had a performance between 9% and 11%. And then there has been years that have been significantly lower, down -- and where the market has shifted and the unemployment rate has been lower in the past. And then we have had a few times where we have had above 11%. And those are typical times where the unemployment rates are high and the utilization rate has been good.

So I mean, currently, we are trading higher. There is a potential that it could be higher in this situation, but we don't expect anything significantly higher than 9% to 11% for this year. Especially, we don't expect it in the long term.

I mean this is a volatile business and we need to -- I mean, we're very glad that it's doing well now. We have expectations that's the forecast for high unemployment rate for 2025, and that gives good possibilities for continuous good volumes and business there. But there will come a time, sooner or later, where the unemployment rate will decline and then there will be changes.

[Marcus Strömberg, executive]

So if you compare with the competitors in the Adult Education, we have the absolute strongest position if you compare with them. And that's why we have this higher part of vocational training, and we have a lot of different brands so we can meet a lot of different needs.

And also, if you look at the online training, that we really also have a very strong and good position in the Adult Education, it will also give us competitiveness if you compare with the competitors. So I think we are doing a really good job when it comes to Adult Education.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] There are no more questions at this time. So I hand the conference back to the speakers for any closing comments.

[Marcus Strömberg, executive]

So thank you very much for your questions and listening to this presentation, and we wish you all the best. Thank you very much. Bye-bye.

[Petter Sylvan, executive]

Bye. Thank you.