Nordic Paper Holding AB

STO:NPAPER

Q2-2025 Earnings Call

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Nordic Paper Q2 Half Year 2025 Results Conference Call. I'm Sergeen, the Chorus Call operator. [Operator Instructions] The conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast. At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to the company. Please go ahead.

[Henrik Essén, executive]

Thank you very much. Good morning, and a warm welcome to this Nordic Paper presentation of our Q2 results. My name is Henrik Essén and today we have Nordic Paper CEO, Anita Sjolander; and CFO, Niclas Eriksson, that will, as usual, present the results. The floor is yours, Anita. Please go ahead.

[Anita Sjolander, executive]

Thank you, Henrik, and thank you all for listening into our reporting of the Q2 results of Nordic Paper. It's now been my privilege to be CEO of the company for 6 years, and during this time, we have experienced both very strong markets, we have faced also some challenging business environment. We've had pandemic with global supply chain issues. We had the war in Ukraine. We have the war in Ukraine. And through all these times, Nordic Paper, we have proven the resilience of the company and also the stability of our performance.

We have chosen to be more focused to stable end users. We have 2/3 of our net sales into food-related end users with some examples like for grain and flour. Our baking paper finds its way all over the world and many consumer packaging of food is made out of our paper, and the underlying consumption is not sensitive to general business conditions. We need to eat, cook and bake for our daily living. So less volatile end uses giving us stability over time, and even if the underlying consumption of food might not be impacted by the general business environment, short term, we do sometimes face variations, stock variations downstream, which also gives Nordic Paper some variations.

We've seen it before like when the supply chains were congested and also when there's been some expectations of price reductions, and it is what we also see now when we face a softer market, and with that said, let's now look into our financial results for the quarter, a report with the headline stable performance in softening markets.

In the beginning of the year, we had a more positive general business environment, healthy demand for Nordic Paper products, but now with the numerous announcements on U.S. tariffs that has increased uncertainty and the global economy downturn as a result.

So during the second quarter, demand has softened for most of our products and also in most of the geographies, which has been then resulting in a 5% lower sales volumes. Net sales is 6% lower compared to a very strong quarter 2 last year, and when we exclude the currency effect during the quarter, net sales decreased only 1%.

We have increased our product prices slightly from quarter 1 to quarter 2. Compared to the same period last year, we have increased our product prices by 3% in local currency. Both our 2 segments, Kraft Paper and Natural Greaseproof has contributed on equal parts to the EBITDA level of SEK 228 million, and we have a margin this quarter of 19.8%. It's a decrease compared to the very strong Q2 last year, but we are proud that we are keeping our margins on a high level despite the softer markets that we are facing right now.

During this quarter, we have also entered a new financing syndicate with financial institutions, and we have now a Term Loan B on EUR 275 million, Term Loan B loan, and we have also a revolving credit facility of EUR 65 million.

With this financing in place, our Board of Directors have proposed SEK 12 per share dividend, and that was approved in the EGM yesterday and will be paid out the 23rd of July. It's a total of SEK 803 million. And with that, I would like to go over and share the development of net sales and the EBITDA.

The EBITDA is close to 20% despite the situation where we are facing right now. Net sales, SEK 1.148 billion. It is a decrease of 6% compared to the same period last year. The impact on net sales from the lower sales volumes are of equal size as the currency effect we have in this quarter, 5% down. While we have the increases of the prices of 3%, we have a positive product mix contributing with 1%. This is then partly offsetting the effect we have on the sales volumes and the currency.

On EBITDA level, SEK 228 million, margin 19.8%, which is compared to last year's lower where we had 22.9%. So now I mentioned sales volumes a few times. On the next page, we have the development on the sales volumes, down from the strong Q2 last year and also down from Q1 this year as well, and the decrease from quarter 1, that is a normal seasonality effect as we -- in the first quarter of the year, we have the push from the sales volumes that well -- the production volumes that we produced during the end of the year, and then we have the Christmas, New Year holidays. So they get transported in the beginning of Q1 instead. So that's the push we have.

So it's a normal seasonality pattern to go down from Q1 to Q2, and still, despite the softer market conditions, the sales volumes are above the quarterly average for the last 2 years, yet another proof of the strong relationships we have with our customers. Nordic Paper has 2 segments. It is the Kraft Paper segment where we are selling unbleached Kraft Paper, and we have the Natural Greaseproof segment selling Greaseproof papers, and we report the result of those 2 segments individually, and now I will start with the Kraft Paper segment.

Beginning of the year, we had a healthy demand, especially sack paper improved during quarter 1, but during the second quarter now, the general market softness described earlier has also impacted the Kraft Paper business. For Nordic Paper and also for the Kraft Paper segment, the European market is the main market. That's where we, in the company, have 2/3 of our net sales, and the European market has for Kraft Paper been stable in quarter 2. In net sales, in absolute number, it has been stable, while the other markets have declined.

The raw material for this segment, that is pulpwood. For this raw material, we have seen increasing prices since 2022, but in quarter 2, the prices have been stable, and we also now have the sign that this trend is broken, and we are expecting then the pulpwood prices to continue to go down going forward. That will give a positive impact on the Kraft Paper business going forward.

EBITDA in absolute numbers, SEK 112 million and an EBITDA margin that improved from quarter 1 to 19.1%. Compared to yet again the very strong Q2 last year, EBITDA decreased from SEK 154 million, and at that time, we had a margin of 24.7%. So that was the performance of our Kraft Paper segment, and we will continue with the Natural Greaseproof segment.

So adding to the global economy situation, we have also here then the different announcements on the U.S. tariffs, which has softened demand for both the European and North American market in the second quarter. So Nordic Paper, we are supplying Natural Greaseproof paper from the 3 of our production units. So we can provide into U.S. from the Canadian operation, from Sweden and also from Norway. So that gives us a flexibility when it comes to what tariffs that will be implemented.

The U.S. market is dependent on import of this high-quality Natural Greaseproof papers. There's one producer, but this producer cannot satisfy the demand in U.S., which gives us a good position in that market. Net sales decreased by 6% to SEK 578 million. If we exclude the currency effect, net sales are on an unchanged level.

Compared to quarter 2 last year, we have increased our sales prices by 4% in local currency, and that is compensating for the lower sales volumes in Natural Greaseproof segment. The raw material for Natural Greaseproof segment is pulp. The prices have been on a stable level compared to the last year. So this segment has delivered yet another strong EBITDA, SEK 115 million and also an EBITDA margin at a very good high level, 19.8%.

So pulp and energy are important input costs for this segment, and we've seen increasing pulp prices since quarter 2 last year, but during quarter 2 this year, we have also seen the pulp prices declining. For Nordic Paper, there is a lag. It's a little bit less than a quarter between when we see the price changes, the announcements on the PIX Index and the effect we can see in our profit and loss statement. So this will then give a positive impact in our quarter 3 results. So -- and then I would like to hand over to my colleague, Niclas, and he will guide you through the development year-on-year. So Niclas, please.

[Niclas Eriksson, executive]

Thank you, Anita, and I will take you through the view of net sales and EBITDA as a start. If we look at the Q2 net sales, we can see that in Q2, the net sales decreased 6%, mainly because of lower sales volumes and weaker invoicing currencies. The sales prices have been increased compared to the same quarter last year with approximately 3% and the increase is slightly higher in Natural Greaseproof.

The effect from the volume decrease on net sales is mainly related to Kraft Paper, and the invoicing currencies, mainly euro, have in total been weaker compared to Swedish krona for this quarter. If we then take a look at the EBITDA for the quarter, we had an EBITDA of SEK 228 million, and that's a decrease of 19% compared to the strong quarter 2 last year.

The implemented price increases mitigate the largest part of the cost increases we see in variable cost and fixed costs, but lower sales volume and negative currency effects hit the result. Price for pulpwood has stabilized during the quarter, but is on a higher level compared to the same period in 2024, and the market price for pulp is in a decreasing trend, but is also on a higher level in total compared to Q2 2024.

The negative currency effect that we saw on net sales is to a very large part, set off by the input material costs that we have in other currencies. We move on to the year-to-date figures. The net sales for year-to-date 2025 are in large unchanged compared to 2024 since the implemented price increases mitigate the negative effect from the volume and the negative currency effect.

The price increases are 5% in total compared to last year. Moving on to EBITDA. We can see that the EBITDA decreased approximately 10% compared to the very strong first half year of 2024. The price increases that we have implemented in both segments mitigate the increases that we have seen in variable cost and fixed costs, while lower sales volume and negative currency effects are decreasing the EBITDA. Year-to-date, we can see the same situation as described for Q2. We have higher pulpwood costs in Kraft Paper and higher cost for pulp in Natural Greaseproof compared to last year.

If we take a look at the working capital and cash flow, the working capital have been reduced compared to Q1 this year compared to the same period 2024. The working capital is higher, and the main reasons are paid income taxes and higher inventories of finished goods. The cash flow from operating activities is on the similar level as of Q2 2024.

Then we take a look on the financial situation. We have continued to run the strategic investment in Bäckhammar, and the net debt has increased compared to the same period last year. The net debt-to-EBITDA relation was 1.7 at the end of Q2 2025. We have agreed on a long-term financing and to the end of the quarter 2, the financial agreement includes a term loan of EUR 275 million with a 7-year tenure and an RCF of EUR 65 million with a 6.5 year tenure, and the dividend of SEK 803 million was decided on the AGM yesterday, and that corresponds to the SEK 12 per share. And then I hand over back to you, Anita, for a status update on the CapEx projects.

[Anita Sjolander, executive]

Thank you. I'm happy to give a short update on where we are on the large projects. We are running in Bäckhammar, the new wood room and filters that is an SEK 850 million CapEx ongoing. It's happy to report it's all running according to plan, in time, on budget, and we have right now spent approximately 70% of the CapEx related to these projects, and the plan is to start running before end of the year, and as a friendly reminder, we expect a gain of SEK 100 million from next year from these projects.

In April, we also approved an investment up to SEK 450 million for the water handling also in the same plant, Bäckhammar. This was a condition in our new production permit. It is a prerequisite for increasing the production above the current permit level. The investment for this water handling project will be carried out 2025 to 2027, and I would also like to share a positive development when it comes to our climate performance.

For Nordic Paper, climate performance is a competitive advantage, and we believe that this will be even more important going forward for the future. Our target for the company is to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2030 and from the base of 2020, and that goes for all scopes. So it's not just our own emissions, it's also for the input goods and the services we use, and to keep track of the progress, of course, we follow the performance on quarterly and annual basis.

You can see in the graph here, the last 2 years, and for quarter 2 now, the emissions in Scope 1, and that is the activities of Nordic Paper. It's inside our own fence, you could say. It's a record low emission level. We reduced it by 1,000 tonnes compared to quarter 2 last year, and as you can see in the graph, a very good reduction from quarter 1 this year, more than 40%, and primarily, this is lower emissions from the fuels used in Bäckhammar and the Norwegian Greåker water plant.

So we are on the right track. We'll continue to focus on this going forward, and the climate performance, that is something we believe will provide long-term competitiveness for Nordic Paper, and let's now look into what we see for the more near-term outlook and what we assess for the quarter 3.

We assess that the market and the demand for our products will continue to be a bit softer due to the general economic situation, and as a consequence of that, there will be some price pressure in both segments. For the same reasons with the business environment, we also expect the prices for the main input materials, pulp and pulpwood that the prices for those raw materials will also decrease compared to the Q2 this year, and also a friendly reminder, in quarter 3, that's when we perform all the normal annual maintenance, and we do that in all the production plants in the same quarter.

We guide you for the direct costs that are connected to these maintenance stops. This year, it will be in the range of SEK 125 million to SEK 145 million. There are some more details in the report, if you would like to look into that. So with that, given the report and the outlook for quarter 3, we would like to give you the opportunity if there's any questions.

[Henrik Essén, executive]

So operator, do we have any questions?

[Operator]

Not at the moment. [Operator Instructions] We still don't have any questions. There are no questions at this time. I would now like to turn the conference back over to the company for any closing remarks.

[Henrik Essén, executive]

Yes. Thank you.

[Anita Sjolander, executive]

So before ending this presentation, we would just like to reiterate our message in the report, a short summary of the results and our outlook for quarter 3. So we have seen a softer demand in quarter 2, and in this business environment, we delivered a net sales of SEK 1.148 billion, a decrease by 6%, and when excluding the effect from the currency development, it is a 1% lower net sales.

EBITDA in the quarter was SEK 228 million, and our outlook to quarter 3 is that the market will continue to be a bit softer and with some price pressure. We will have the normal seasonality effects from the maintenance stops that we perform in all the plants during quarter 3, and then I would like to hand over to Henrik to finalize the meeting.

[Henrik Essén, executive]

Yes. Thank you very much, Anita, and with that concluding remark, we end this presentation. We wish you all a nice summer, and we look forward to talking to you again for our Q3 results presentation in October. Thank you, and goodbye.