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Lynas Rare Earths Ltd
XMUN:LYI

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Lynas Rare Earths Ltd
XMUN:LYI
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Price: 11.194 EUR -2.32% Market Closed
Market Cap: €17B

DCF Value

This DCF valuation model was created by Alpha Spread and was last updated on Jun 6, 2026.

Estimated DCF Value of one LYI stock is 6.299 EUR. Compared to the current market price of 11.194 EUR, the stock is Overvalued by 44%.

LYI DCF Value
6.299 EUR
Overvaluation 44%
DCF Value
Price €11.194
Bear Case
Base Case
Bull Case
6.299
DCF Value
Bear Case
Base Case
Bull Case
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DCF Value: 6.299 EUR

Present Value Calculation

This block is the starting point of the DCF valuation process. It calculates the present value of a company's forecasted cash flows based on selected operating model. Adjust key parameters like discount rate and terminal growth, and alter inputs such as revenue growth and margins to see their impact on valuation.

DCF Model
Base Case Scenario

The present value of cash flows over the next 5 years amounts to 3.9B AUD. The present value of the terminal value is 11B AUD. The total present value equals 14.9B AUD.
Forecast Period
Years
Discount Rate
%
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Terminal Growth
%
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DCF Value Calculation

This stage translates the present value into DCF value per share. For firm valuation models, it adjusts present value for debt and assets to derive equity value (skipped if using equity valuation model). Finally, this equity value is divided by the number of shares to determine the DCF value per share.

Present Value to DCF Value
Capital Structure

Present Value 14.9B AUD
+ Cash & Equivalents 745.7m AUD
+ Investments 285.2m AUD
Firm Value 15.9B AUD
- Debt 180.5m AUD
Equity Value 15.7B AUD
/ Shares Outstanding 1.5B
Value per Share 10.377 AUD
AUD / EUR Exchange Rate 0.607
LYI DCF Value 6.299 EUR
Overvalued by 44%

Valuation Analysis

Sensitivity Analysis
DCF Value Sensitivity Analysis

Sensitivity Analysis assesses how changes in key factors like revenue growth, margin, and discount rate affect a stock's DCF value. By visualizing various scenarios, from significant downturns to optimistic growth, this tool helps you understand potential valuation shifts, aiding in risk assessment and strategic decision-making.

DCF Financials
Financials used in DCF Calculation

Revenue
1.5B 3.8B
Operating Income
569.1m 2.1B
FCFF
542.7m 1.6B

What is the DCF value of one LYI stock?

Estimated DCF Value of one LYI stock is 6.299 EUR. Compared to the current market price of 11.194 EUR, the stock is Overvalued by 44%.

The true DCF Value lies somewhere between the worst-case and best-case scenario values. This is because the future is not predetermined, and the stock's DCF Value is based almost entirely on the future of the company. Knowing the full range of possible stock DCF values gives a complete picture of the investment risks and opportunities.

How was the DCF Value calculated?

1. Present Value Calculation. Utilizing the DCF operating model, Lynas Rare Earths Ltd's future cash flows are projected and then discounted using a chosen discount rate to determine its Present Value, which is calculated at 14.9B AUD.

2. DCF Value Calculation. The company's capital structure is employed to derive the total Equity Value from the previously calculated Present Value of the cash flow. This Equity Value, when divided by the total number of outstanding shares, yields the DCF Value of 6.299 EUR per share.

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