NSK Ltd

TSE:6471

Earnings Call Transcript

[Akitoshi Ichii, executive]

Thank you for joining our financial conference. Today, I will outline NSK's full year business results for fiscal 2022. Our forecast for fiscal 2023 and the steering business joint venture agreement we entered into with the Japan Industrial Solutions. Additionally, I will also touch on the company's decision to implement share buybacks and the decision to abolish our takeover defense policy.

Let's begin looking at Page 4. Sales for the year ended March 31, 2023, were JPY 938.1 billion, an increase of JPY 72.9 billion year-on-year. And operating income was JPY 32.9 billion, an increase of JPY 3.5 billion. Net income attributable to owners of the parent was JPY 18.4 billion. Although real volume was down from the previous year, transferring increased costs to sales prices and the yen's depreciation contributed to our result of an increase in both sales and profits.

Regarding transferring increased costs to sales prices, we exceeded our February forecast target due to a strong effort by the sales team and better understanding by customers than we had expected. This, along with success in controlling expenses, enabled us to close the fiscal year higher than our forecast.

For the dividend, the company plans to pay an annual dividend totaling JPY 30 per share, which puts the payout ratio at 83.6%.

Next, let's look at Page 5. This graph highlights sales volume in constant terms compared to the previous fiscal year. As shown above the graph, exchange rate fluctuations and transfer of increased costs to sales prices had a positive impact of JPY 70.5 billion and JPY 36.8 billion, respectively. Removing these factors to compare volume in constant terms, year-on-year, sales volume declined 4% from JPY 865.2 billion to JPY 830.8 billion.

Next, moving on to Page 6. The V chart on this page details the factors affecting operating income compared to the previous year. On the left side, you can see we had JPY 29.4 billion operating income in fiscal 2021. This increased by JPY 3.5 billion in fiscal 2022 to JPY 32.9 billion, as seen on the right. As I mentioned earlier, in terms of actual volume in constant terms, there was a decrease of about JPY 34 billion. This resulted in an impact of minus JPY 13.1 billion as shown in the volume mix column.

In the next column to the right, you can see we achieved a JPY 4 billion reduction in procurement costs as planned in our forecast. Moving on, inflation and sales prices contributed a JPY 2.6 billion increase. In this category, although inflation was higher than expected, we were able to recover a portion by transferring increasing costs to sales prices for an overall positive result.

In the increase and decrease in cost category, we saw a negative impact of JPY 2.5 billion. When we initially talked about this in the third quarter, we had estimated the increase in labor costs at JPY 4 billion, but we were able to limit the increase in labor costs slightly due to lower volume and production adjustments in the fourth quarter. The impact of exchange rate fluctuations was JPY 13.7 billion, and the impact of equity method affiliate profits and other factors was minus JPY 1.2 billion.

On the following pages, we will go into further detail by business segment. Please flip to Page 7. This page shows the breakdown for the industrial machinery business. Sales in the industrial machinery business were JPY 385.1 billion, an increase of 9.3% or JPY 32.9 billion over the previous year. Segment income was JPY 35.5 billion or 9.2%. We were aiming for 10%, but unfortunately, improvement was limited to 0.6% year-on-year. One of the reasons for the lack of growth in sales here is that excluding the effect of exchange rates, volume declined compared to the previous year.

In the second half of the year, the machine tools and semiconductor manufacturing equipment industries, our most profitable sectors, started to slow down. In the fourth quarter, operating income dropped to 6.8% due to production adjustments in line with the decline in volume.

Next, we will look at Page 8. This page shows the breakdown for the Automotive business. Sales in the Automotive business were JPY 520.7 billion, an increase of 7.9% or JPY 38.2 billion. However, operating income was in the red at minus JPY 4 billion, with returning to profitability continuing to pose a challenge.

In addition, although global automotive production volume increased year-on-year by 8%, actual volume for NSK declined. One of the major factors here according to our analysis is the slowdown in the Chinese market, especially at many Tier 1 manufacturers and transmission system manufacturers that we deliver to. Our analysis indicates that inventory adjustments have had a significant impact. In the fourth quarter, we made progress in transferring increasing costs to sales prices. And moving forward, we will strive to transfer costs in a timely manner.

Next, we will look at Page 10 with the full year forecast for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2024. The full year forecast presented here does not include the impact of the establishment of the steering joint venture, which I mentioned at the beginning of the presentation. In other words, our current forecast is based on the assumption that the steering business is consolidated with NSK for the full year. These figures are further premised on seeing an alleviation of semiconductor shortages and supply chain problems.

In the industrial machinery business, we assume that machine tools, semiconductor manufacturing equipment and demand in China will be slightly down. This will continue through the first half and probably into the second half. However, we do assume a gradual recovery in the second half toward the end of the year. As for automotive production, we assume a 5% increase year-on-year to 86 million vehicles. We expect inflation to continue to increase in steel, energy and other areas, and there is also the new topic of rising labor costs.

Overall, the full year sales forecast for the current fiscal year, assuming an exchange rate of JPY 125 to the U.S. dollar is JPY 990 billion, an increase of JPY 51.9 billion year-on-year, and operating income of JPY 41.5 billion, an increase of JPY 8.6 billion or 4.2%.

For the dividend, we are planning to pay out a dividend totaling JPY 30 per share for the full year.

Next, please flip to Page 11, which has our forecast breakdown by segment. For the industrial machinery business, we forecast sales of JPY 377.5 billion. This is a JPY 7.6 billion decline year-on-year. If we account for transferring increasing costs to sales prices and the effect of exchange rate fluctuations, we estimate a JPY 13.6 billion decrease in volume in constant terms basis. The forecast for segment income may appear slightly disappointing due to the impact of exchange rates and volume.

We forecast that automotive sales, including the steering business, will increase by more than 10% to JPY 580 billion. Sales will bounce back after the customer inventory adjustments I mentioned earlier, and we expect new orders in steering systems and other areas for us to come out in the black for the full year. For your reference, narrowing down to the steering segment alone, sales of steering systems were JPY 161.3 billion with segment income of minus JPY 9.3 billion in fiscal 2022. For fiscal 2023, we forecast JPY 182 billion in steering sales with segment income in the red at minus JPY 1.1 billion.

Please move to Page 12 with our forecast for the factors behind change in operating income. We expect operating income to increase to JPY 41.5 billion compared to the JPY 32.9 billion in the previous fiscal year. This V chart shows the change in operating income from fiscal 2022 to fiscal 2023. On the right side, you can see our forecast for operating income with and without the impact of the steering business. To explain the changes starting from the left, in terms of volume and mix, we forecast a decrease in industrial machinery and an increase in automotive amounting to an estimated JPY 3.5 billion. For inflation and labor cost increases, we expect an impact of minus JPY 24 billion. This is an area we need to work on moving forward.

Moving on to cost reductions. This includes general cost savings, value analysis or value engineering and other procurement methods as well as labor cost reduction efforts. We will work to offset the impact of wage increases and inflation through a combination of transferring costs to sales prices and cost reductions.

Moving to the next column, costs will increase by JPY 3.5 billion due to depreciation and SG&A expenses. In the next column, since the yen has slightly appreciated, we are looking at an impact of minus JPY 4.5 billion in currency exchange rate fluctuations. Overall, excluding steering, our forecast for operating income is JPY 33.2 billion, up slightly year-on-year. On the far right, including steering, the forecast operating income of JPY 41.5 billion is driven by volume, sales prices and steering business structural reforms, which are expected to have an impact of JPY 8.2 billion.

Moving on to Page 13, showing key management tasks for fiscal 2023. At the top, as we have been doing, we must continue to respond to inflating costs by continuing to transfer increases to sales prices. For labor costs, we will continue to transfer increases to sales prices as well as implement efforts to reduce our unit cost to make up for a delay in transferring some labor costs to sales prices. Naturally, there is still uncertainty regarding the second half of the year, so we must ensure our production sites are ready to scale with demand in line with the risk of an economic slowdown.

In the steering business, we will aim for a smooth transition to the joint venture with Japan Industrial Solutions, JIS, and continue implementing structural reforms and promoting mid-term initiatives.

Next, moving to Page 15. I will touch on progress in our mid-term management plan, MTP2026. First, we would like to note that the business environment has continued to be more challenging than our original assumptions for our mid-term plan. Inflation is expanding and China is growing at a slower rate of about 5%. Another important point is that we have to revise our mid-term assumptions for automotive production volume due to the delay in recovery from semiconductor shortages and other factors. Fortunately, in the industrial machinery business, we have been able to improve profitability as well as recover volume over the last fiscal year. However, we are now entering an adjustment phase.

In the Automotive business, we are making progress in structural reforms of the steering business, but the segment was still in the red last year. Even though we have to review these mid-term assumptions, we will stick to our mid-term goals of ROE of 10% and enhancing our corporate value.

Next, on Page 16, we have key issues and related initiatives. In the area of growth with profitability, we have yet to recover operating income to 10% in our core business of bearings and precision machinery products and must thoroughly rebuild our business foundation. To this end, we will implement a standard policy reflecting inflating costs in sales prices. Fortunately, we have been able to gain the understanding of our customers, not only in terms of steel prices, but also in terms of electricity and freight rates. We will continue to pursue these initiatives, and we are going to take them a step further moving forward.

Due to the impact of automotive production volume and the semiconductor industry, we feel compelled to revise our mid-term assumptions downward for the E&E segment and the Automotive segment. However, we will maintain our target of operating income of 10%. And to achieve this, we will be increasing asset efficiency and promoting measures to improve profitability.

We will also continue to pursue portfolio reform. This includes increasing the ratio of the industrial machinery business to 50% and developing and expanding sales to new customers capitalizing on electrification. The steering business will be managed under a new joint venture company to promote management independence and new strategic alliances. At the same time, shareholder returns and capital policy are also important to increase corporate value. Fortunately, we have been able to achieve a dividend payout ratio in line with our mid-term plan. As we announced today, we would like to finally move forward with share buybacks, which we will implement in a flexible manner.

Moving on to Page 17. Let's look at the mid-term plan progress by business segment. In the industrial machinery business, we will maintain our target of JPY 450 billion sales and operating margin of 13%. In particular, as I mentioned previously, we see semiconductors and machine tools as an area that will surely grow over the medium term. We are committed to steadily growing in these areas. Further, we have been able to increase aftermarket sales in line with our mid-term plan. And compared to fiscal 2017, we aim to increase sales by JPY 130 billion.

For E&E, we will slightly reduce our mid-term plan target by about 10%. In this context, we will review our investment plans, improve productivity and reorganize our assets to make the most efficient use of them.

Next, moving to Page 18 with the Automotive business. This page excludes the steering business. The initial automotive production volume assumption for the mid-term plan was 98 million vehicles, but this has been revised down to 90 million vehicles. However, we will maintain our operating income margin target at 7%.

As we have mentioned, taking in orders for electric vehicles are progressing basically as planned. In addition, I think we have made about 70% progress in our targets for orders for new products, mainly in electric hydraulic brake systems. In terms of improving profitability, we have set a goal that the new products for which we are now receiving orders will be more profitable than existing products, and I believe we are making improvements in this area. However, while that is taking effect, we will move to improve profitability and volume of existing orders. To that end, we will reorganize production and withdraw from unprofitable products.

Moving to Page 19, I would like to touch on the steering business. We were in discussions with thyssenkrupp toward a joint venture. However, due to various uncertainties in the business environment and other factors, we were unable to conclude an agreement in the time frame we had hoped for. Of course, we couldn't wait around and do nothing, so we made a move to step up our efforts. In the long run, our steering strategy remains the same. We will continue initiatives to make steering independent and profitable and pursue new alliances to further grow the business.

As explained on the page, to accelerate our efforts, we have decided to enter into a joint venture with Japan Industrial Solutions, JIS. As stated here, the aim is to complete structural reforms with the knowledge of a third party and to increase the corporate value of the company. Looking beyond that, we would like to expand the possibilities for alliances with new strategic partners.

Moving on to Page 20, I would like to briefly touch on the share buyback. The box in the middle of the page shows the total amount of shares that will be bought back up to JPY 22 billion and the number of shares up to 25 million shares. In addition, I would like to state our policy that we are considering canceling or amortizing treasury stock, including what we have held until now as appropriate.

Next, looking at Page 21. Here, we introduce our initiatives for ESG management. For carbon neutrality, the use of renewable energy is still the main focus, but we are making progress on schedule. We also published our human rights policy and abolished our takeover defense measures, as I mentioned at the beginning of this presentation.

Under enhancement of managerial resources, although only one indicator is provided for each area, such as DX talent development and the utilization of diverse human resources, we have a variety of indicators in each area.

This ends my summary of our fiscal 2022 business results, fiscal 2023 forecast and progress on MTP 2026. Thank you.