Tokio Marine Holdings Inc

TSE:8766

Q2-2026 Earnings Call

[岡田 健司 (おかだ けんじ), executive]

Good evening and good afternoon, everyone. My name is Okada, and thank you very much for taking the time to join our call today. We also appreciate your continued support towards Tokio Marine.

Let me move straight into my presentation. Please turn to Page 3. There are 3 key messages I would like to highlight today. First, regarding the current business momentum. In the first half of fiscal '25, Japan P&C results benefited from benign natural catastrophes and steady execution of rate increases. Underwriting in our international operations, including North America and Brazil was also strong and overall business momentum remains favorable. In North American credit, capital losses came in below expectations and business-related equity sales totaled JPY 580 billion in the first half, reflecting accelerated divestments. Asset management and capital-related activities have also been progressing smoothly.

Second point is regarding our full year profit outlook. As mentioned earlier, underwriting momentum remains strong and capital losses in North America credit are below expectations. However, we have seen negative impact from cross-currency FX movements between the U.S. dollar and British pound. And in Asian Life insurance, lower interest rates have led to an increase in insurance liabilities, which must be recognized as loss. These market-driven factors outside of underlying business momentum have created downward pressure on profit. In addition, our direct channel company, E. design Insurance was rebranded as Tokio Marine Direct on October 1, and we are actively investing in promotions and advertisements. As a result, our fiscal '25 profit forecast, excluding gains on sales of business-related equities, is revised downward by JPY 28 billion from the initial forecast to JPY 672 billion.

However, the profit forecast, including gains on business-related equity sales, which forms the basis for dividend is revised upward by JPY 10 billion to JPY 1.11 trillion, reflecting accelerated divestments. On a normalized basis, we exclude one-off impacts such as capital gain and losses related to North American credit, gain on sales of equities as well as cross-currency effects. As a result, the main negative factors are lower profits in Asia Life Insurance and higher advertising expenses at Tokio Marine Direct. Full year profit on a normalized basis is projected to be JPY 20 billion below the initial forecast.

Third point is regarding shareholder return. Our view that profit growth in our business and expansion of shareholder return should be consistent remains unchanged.

Regarding dividend payment, which is the main means of shareholder return, we have revised upward the fiscal '25 actual basis adjusted net income, including gains on sales of business-related equities, which forms the basis for dividend payment. To be consistent, we will increase our fiscal '25 DPS by JPY 1 from the initial plan of JPY 210 to JPY 211.

We will also continue to manage our capital stock with discipline. Specifically, generated capital will be allocated to M&A and risk-taking opportunities that contribute to improving our ROE. If high-quality opportunities do not arise, we will execute share buybacks.

Our ESR currently stands at a strong level of 155%. Recently, we announced Philadelphia's acquisition of an insurance business serving collector vehicle for USD 615 million. In addition, we currently have multiple M&A opportunities in the pipeline. We have also previously stated our intention to achieve approximately 2% EPS growth through share buybacks, and our market capitalization continues to grow. Taking these factors into account comprehensively, we have decided to increase our fiscal '25 share buyback plan from the originally announced JPY 220 billion to JPY 240 billion. These are the key messages.

Let me now move into more details. Please turn to Page 4. First is the top line. All figures are explained on excluding FX factor basis. Net premiums written in the first half increased by 4%, slightly below our original projections. In Japan P&C, rate increases took place as planned, while in international business, some lines saw softening market conditions. In response, we remained disciplined, focusing on risk selection and bottom line.

Life insurance premiums declined by 3% due to the block reinsurance executed by Asian Life in April, but underwriting in international business exceeded our initial projections. Reflecting these first half conditions, we have updated our full year outlook and now expect net premiums written to increase 4% and life insurance premiums to increase 62% year-on-year.

Next, let me explain adjusted net income. Please turn to Page 5. Group adjusted net income for the first half was JPY 755 billion or excluding gains on sales of business-related equities, it was JPY 367.2 billion. Progress rate towards the original full year projection was 69% and 52%, respectively. Both are strong. As mentioned at the beginning, this reflects strong underwriting both domestically and internationally as well as capital losses in North America credit that were below initial expectations. I will now explain the details by business segment.

Starting with Japan P&C. Despite the impact of a higher-than-planned auto accident frequency and effect of large loss in specialty, progress against our full year forecast is strong due to fewer nat cats than average, the steady impact of rate increases in auto and fire and a decrease in foreign currency hedging costs due to the narrowing interest rate differential between Japan and the United States. Also, in October, auto rate increase of 8.5% was implemented ahead of our peers. Thanks to our agents' strong customer relationships, we have been able to control the impact of renewals after the rate increase as expected. Rate revisions will continue to be implemented flexibly in response to loss cost trends.

Turning to International. Although there are factors that drive profits down, such as the L.A. wildfires that occurred in January and the foreign exchange impact between the dollar and the pound, underwriting profits remain strong, particularly in major DCs in North America and TMSR in Brazil and less-than-expected capital loss in North America, so Q2 results are generally on track.

Turning to full year projections. Please turn to Page 6. Adjusted net income on an actual basis for FY 2025, excluding business-related equities is expected to be JPY 672 billion, down JPY 28 billion from original projections. As explained earlier, strong underwriting in International and a decrease in capital losses in North America will be factors to increase profits, while the FX impact between foreign currencies, profit decline in Asian Life and increase in advertising expenses at Tokio Marine Direct Insurance or TMDI are profit reducing factors. Adjusted net income, including business-related equities that includes accelerated sales of strategic or business-related holdings is expected to be JPY 1,110 billion, up JPY 10 billion from the original projections.

The nominal -- correction, the normalized full year projections, which presents the underlying capability of our business is shown on Page 7. Excluding one-off effects such as capital gains and losses on North American credit and strategic holdings and foreign exchange impact between the foreign currencies, the main factors that drive profits down are decrease in profits in Asian Life and increase in advertising expenses at TMDI, resulting in a downward revision of JPY 20 billion compared to our initial projections.

Next, let me cover shareholder returns on Page 8. Once again, we have -- as we have stated previously, the basis of our shareholder returns is dividends, and our policy is to sustainably increase DPS in line with profit growth. As explained earlier, our actual adjusted net profit for fiscal year '25, including gains on sales of business-related holdings was revised up by JPY 10 billion. To be consistent, DPS for FY '25 will be increased by JPY 1 compared to our initial plan to JPY 211 or DPS growth of 23% year-on-year.

Please turn to Page 9. Regarding capital stock adjustments and share buyback as a means to achieve this, our thinking remains unchanged. That is, as we always say, if there are M&As or risk-taking opportunities that contribute to improving our corporate value and ROE, we will execute them. In the absence of opportunities, we will conduct share buyback.

Earlier, I mentioned Philadelphia's bolt-on M&A of the collected car insurance business. The deal summary is on Page 10. This is a niche auto insurance business in which PHLY excels. And because car enthusiasts drive cars carefully, the loss ratio is low at around 50%. Also with the increasing retirement of the baby boomer generation, the market is expected to continue to demonstrate strong growth. PHLY, Philadelphia acquired the business from Ignyte, the second largest insurance company in this field. We are confident that this acquisition will enhance PHLY's underwriting expertise and further boost our growth.

We currently have multiple M&A deals in the pipeline, and our ESR is currently at a robust level of 155%. While we aim to achieve approximately plus 2% of EPS growth through share buybacks, our market cap reached JPY 12 trillion as of the end of September. Taking these factors into account, we have decided to increase our share buyback for fiscal year '25 from the JPY 220 billion announced at the beginning of the year to JPY 240 billion. Specifically, we have already decided and executed JPY 110 billion. And at our Board meeting held today, a new resolution was approved to execute the remaining JPY 130 billion. As mentioned in the news release issued today, we plan to purchase the entire JPY 130 billion through a share tender offer.

Lastly, on reduction of business-related equities. Please turn to Page 11. At the beginning of the year, we had planned to sell JPY 600 billion in fiscal FY '25. However, we have seen steady progress in reaching an agreement to sell shares and combined with the ongoing rise in stock prices, we have revised the plan upward by JPY 60 billion to JPY 660 billion. Towards achieving the milestones set in our current midterm plan of halving the balance at the end of FY '26 versus end of '23 and fully divesting by the end of fiscal '29, we are on track.

That is all for me. We will continue to achieve world-class EPS growth with high confidence driven by globally well-diversified portfolio with low volatility, strong underwriting and the resulting strong income. We also intend to further increase ROE through EPS growth and disciplined capital policy.

Your continued understanding and support is very much appreciated.

[Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]