voestalpine AG

VSE:VOE

Q3-2025 Earnings Call

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Voestalpine Publication First Third Quarter BY 2024-'25 Conference Call. I'm Valentina, the Chorus Call operator. [Operator Instructions] And the conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions].

The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast.

At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Gerald Resch, Investor Relations Manager. Please go ahead.

[Gerald Resch, executive]

Thank you very much. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the analyst conference call for the first 3 quarters of Business Year 2024-2025. Next to me are sitting our CEO, Herbert Eibensteiner; and our CFO, Gerald Mayer.

As usually, we will start with a quick presentation with business development, actual situation and financial figures. And afterwards, we will be happy to answer your questions. I would like to hand over to Herbert Eibensteiner.

[Herbert Eibensteiner, executive]

Thank you very much. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, to our presentation about the business year third quarter. And let me start with 2 slides out of our strategy. And when you look at the left-hand side, you can see what global mega trends we saw when we implemented this strategy. And I think very -- as we see in our recent geopolitic development, this is globalization or deglobalization and trade restriction is the environment we are in, we see the climate change topic still there.

And on the other hand, we are well aware and this is more or less worldwide that we have a demographic and social cultural change, and you're well aware that we see rapid, really rapid technological change. Our strategy should safeguard our economic viability and also strengthen the resilience of Voestalpine and what we want, and this is a clear goal, we want to have sustainable value-enhancing growth.

What are the goals for the coming years of this strategy, as I mentioned before, this value-enhancing growth in this very dynamic environment we are in. The focus here is clearly in our processing activities. When you look at the second item decarbonization, the steel production is volume-wise on a strategic hold position. The focus is clearly on this decarbonization and keeping this top quality and technological approach when it comes to products. We take advantage of this new mobility requirements, and this is not only automotive, this is railway infrastructure. This is airplane business and others. And yes, we need an energy transition. We are part of that, but we also want to benefit from this transformation with our own product, which is the case, wind, water, water power and photovoltaic.

And we are important is this on the right-hand side, this first bullet point, internationalization in a changed trading environment. This means production, local for local, you may aware and have told it several times that we did investments, for instance, in the U.S. And just to avoid not only tariffs, but also to make sure that logistics and all the other things are manageable so that this is the local-for-local approach. A few example, production is moved to the U.S. for the hyper warehouse business. It's EUR 40 million, EUR 50 million coming from Europe in the last years now it's directly produced in the U.S. We see that turnout business is a very local business in the U.S. So it's by America topic. So that's the reason why we grow our business there.

But there are some other examples, for instance, railway infrastructure in Egypt and for local production of turnouts the same we do actually in South America. So this is a very important thing for us and is also part of the growth story as an example for the railway, but we do also divesting activities if it's necessary, and I will explain that afterwards as well.

Competitive production sites is clear. We do that. We take the opportunity in difficult times to improve our efficiency and we do that in automotive, but in all the other divisions as well.

Very important is that we have this technological leadership approach, means that we are focused on high-quality, high technological products. This is important for us. We do not think about commodities and only in higher qualitative product. And employees are always very important because qualified people are a key to our success.

Just to give you a brief overview of where we are focusing on in the upcoming years. As I mentioned before, it's clear this is our portfolio optimization. I think you are well aware that and you have seen it in the figure. We had Buderus for sale, and we have successfully closed this transaction at the end of January, and that means strategic wise, the reduction of the European footprint in more standard tool steel products, and so we can focus our product mix on high-end tool steel and special steel metals. And on the other hand, it was a loss-making activity, which is now a positive, I would say, investment also for the future development.

We do some other reorganization of our businesses in high-performance metals, supply chain optimization, organizational changes, efficiency program and the same we do in automotive components, an example business in Germany. We will bundling our competencies in several companies, and we will close down one factory in Germany that brings cost and also cost improvements. And Gerald Mayer will tell you that this reorganization is more or less digested till the end of the year when it comes to costs.

And a smaller business for automotive tools business has been closed by the Steel division.

I think it's not necessary to explain again our transformation strategy. So far, we really appreciate our lower risk decarbonization strategy. We are in the middle of the first step of our decarbonization path. In a nutshell, we closed down 2 blast furnaces and will be replaced by electro arc furnaces. How is the project proceeding, it's a CapEx of EUR 1.5 billion, 25% of the CapEx is already spent. And 60% is awarded, we will ramp up this project in the beginning of 2027. All the other steps have to be decided in the next years to come, 2026, 2027. Now we are working on the first step.

Let me move to the development -- sorry, the development in our markets. Europe is our weakest market and Voestalpine was impacted by ongoing weak economy. In contrast, Railway Systems, Aerospace and Warehouse & Rack Solutions did very, very well, not only in Europe, but there's a particular -- particularly in Europe. North America, in general, our plants performed very well. And so when it comes to oil and gas exploration, our OCTG business has slowed down in Q3. All the other activities, Railway Systems, Warehouse & Rack and Tubes & Sections performed very well. Brazil, always interesting. All in all, satisfying, but in the last quarter, we see a slowdown in tool steel production coming from the strong rise of interest rates of the Brazilian government.

So in China, all in all, very good. Thanks, ongoing strong production in the in wintertime, mostly at the end of the Q3, we suffered a little bit from the weakened of the German OEMs in China, all the other companies we are doing quite well.

So let me come to the divisions. Steel Division performed overall very well in generally in a very difficult steel market. And Q3, I would say that December was really, really weak from the maintenance stops or stops of the automotive industry. But when you look at the earnings, we increased a little bit the earnings year-on-year in the Steel divisions.

High Performance Metals, very challenging in tool steel, but aerospace continued to perform very, very well. And Metal Engineering was constantly strong for -- with a high demand for railway infrastructure and I've mentioned that before, not only in Europe, but globally.

Metal Forming differently, very weak development in automotive components. That's the reason why we do this efficiency program there. And Warehouse & Rack Solutions, and as I mentioned before, Tubes & Sections in the U.S. performed quite well. So far, the market overview, and now let us come to the figures.

[Gerald Mayer, executive]

Thank you, Herbert. I would like to give you insight to our numbers and how everything what Herbert told you translates exactly into our first 3 quarters. And let me start with the revenue line item, we are down EUR 650 million, comparing the first 9 months to the first 9 months of prior year. 1/3 roughly of the EUR 650 million refer to lower volumes and mix deviations. The other 2/3 is, of course, a price issue. And this is, in particular, related to lower raw materials, all the raw materials and also energy is cheaper than it was the year before.

Talking about EBITDA and EBIT, you see that we are down roughly EUR 300 million. Interestingly, we are slightly up compared to the prior year in Steel division and the other divisions are down. I think it's no surprise. You all know that in HPM division, we sold Buderus, so this is a nonrecurring item of more than EUR 80 million, which is included there. We are in metal engineering, where we have our OCTG business, which was extraordinarily strong in the prior period. This is down compared to that. This also is the main reason why we are down in metal engineering because Railway System is performing well. But this is -- the main reason is tubulars there means OCTG.

Metal Forming Division is also down. And here we have the issues in automotive components business, where we're also restructuring and we recognized roughly a little bit more than EUR 30 million of restructuring cost end of last quarter. So all in all, the one-off items add up to EUR 170 million in EBIT. And if I go into a little bit more detail and summarize it for you there, EUR 80 million, roughly a little bit more refer to the sold business of Buderus, more than EUR 30 million is restructuring of automotive components in Germany. Herbert explained to you the Camtec business in Steel division. This is a little bit less than EUR 10 million there. So this adds up now to roughly EUR 170 million, and then there's still things to come, and you read it. So we still expect something left for automotive components another EUR 15 million to come until end of our fiscal year and then some minor things of reorganization and restructuring in our High Performance Metals division where we bundle in particular, sales activities, storage facilities, which should then help us and support us in releasing working capital.

In future, financial result exactly where we have been last year, so roughly EUR 140 million. This is the level of last year. And then last but not least, we end up with a profit after tax of EUR 415 million last year. This year, EUR 207 million and the tax rate and this is obvious here is lower than it was last year. We had some like in last quarter, I explained that we had a one-off -- not one-off, it's tax income for prior periods in there of roughly EUR 38 million. And on the one side and on the other side, we have impacts which are not tax deductible, and this has to do with the sale of Buderus. So everything is I think, crystal clear if you look there and go into the details.

Going to the EBITDA bridge now, I would like to share with you, you see there, first 2 columns, price and raw materials, EUR 54 million plus in gross margin. The plus comes in particular from our Steel Division, and the others are slightly down. So -- and the net number is EUR 54 million plus in gross margin. As I mentioned before, all the raw materials and also energy were cheaper than in the comparing period. And these are the EUR 494 million in the second quarter.

What is also interesting is the deviation in mix volume, minus EUR 55 million going there in a little bit more detail. We see that we have negative volume developments in all the divisions. The main reason was that in particular, the brakes for our automotive customers were longer than in prior years and then expected actually. And so this is why we are a little bit behind there. And also one main reason for our reduced outlook to EUR 1.3 billion in EBITDA.

What was positive on the other side is the mix development. So we have positive mix development, in particular for specialty products and heavy plate as we had it in the last quarters.

Last but not least, the last line item there or column there, miscellaneous, minus EUR 300 million, it's quite a big number, what is in there. On the one side, we had positive impacts there last year. You might remember that we recognized subsidies for energy end of fiscal -- let's say, end of calendar year '23 of EUR 80 million roughly. And this year, we had an extraordinary impact there from the sale of Buderus of more than EUR 80 million. So this -- if you add up this 2, this adds up to EUR 160 million. And then, of course, we have to have to include inflationary effects on the personnel side, for example. And all in all, this adds up then to roughly EUR 300 million. But the main reason is the subsidies of last year and Buderus this year, which add up to EUR 160 million.

Yes, I would like to go now to the next slide. The next slide gives you some insights to our cash flow developments. The first 2 columns compare the first 3 quarters. The last one is just Q3. And if you look there, we managed quite well to improve our working capital. As we also announced and indicated when we explained the half year numbers to you. So we expected improvements there and now they are there. This comes from active, of course, working capital management. And so the impact there was definitely very positive, in particular in Q3, where you see positive development of working capital of EUR 180 million. What is also included there in the first 3 quarters. This was already included in Q2. It's tax payments for prior years. I explained that the last time of roughly EUR 100 million. So if you exclude that, it would have been positive also for the first 3 quarters working capital development.

What is also interesting is in our cash flow from investing activities, you see here a number of EUR 750 million, EUR 110 million is included there for our Greentec Steel project in the first 3 quarters. Yes, and we definitely expect also positive development in Q4. And so we expect positive free cash flow of roughly or above -- a little bit above EUR 100 million as of today. What I would like to share with you here is that we are definitely working also going forward in improving our working capital and also our cash out from investing activities. And we guided the last time, investing activities for next year, '25-'26 , between EUR 1.3 billion and EUR 1.4 billion. We reduced this now. We worked on that, reduced this now. We are in the middle of -- end of the planning process. And what we expect as of today is CapEx next year below EUR 1.2 billion, this is our clear target there to support also free cash flows. Yes, until end of this year, our expectation is also EUR 1.2 billion of cash out for investing activities.

Next slide, I share here with you as you know this slide and this chart. What we can say here is that the balance sheet is unchanged, strong. Equity is at the level of last year. Equity ratio is a little bit below 50%, 48%, gearing 26% slightly above year-end fiscal year end '23, '24, but in this area, our net debt to EBITDA at 1.4%, so means a sound balance sheet and financial structure.

Next slide. What you see here is just one headline there for me. Homework for this year is done and no major tasks for next year. So redemption adjusted to EUR 200 million. So nothing to expect there, we feel comfortable and have enough committed lines and flexibility also on our financial side to be ready for things, which might have to be done.

Yes. So this was it from my side in a nutshell about the financials, and I hand over now again to Herbert.

[Herbert Eibensteiner, executive]

Thank you. I will end up with the outlook. Railway Systems, Warehouse & Rack Solutions and Aerospace business will stay -- will remain strong, also globally. In Europe, we see no recovery in the next months. But what we should mention, and this is, I would say, even positive that we see some restocking or expect some restocking effects in Q4 and the months to follow. And -- so the stocks, I would say, are lower than the quarter before. So we see this restocking effect. This is apparent consumption and not real consumption. In North American plants, local plants, Railway, Tubes or Warehouse & Rack. I think we can expect the performance will continue. And on the other hand, we see this recently announced tariffs in -- when we import products into the U.S. and so far, about the actual information. I think this is manageable. It's a manageable figure. And you may be aware, most affected is OCTG business from Metal Engineering and also some products in high-performance metals and these are the most affected parts. We will see what this will bring. I think this will be a question afterwards.

The Brazilian business is divided on the one hand, as I mentioned before, because of this higher interest rates, we see some slowdown in metal production. But on the other hand, we see metal processing still strong and then on good levels. And Chinese business is expected to stay strong. And as I mentioned before, there is no headwind -- there is no tailwind for the German OEMs in China. And this leads to this EBITDA -- new EBITDA forecast of EUR 1.3 billion including this EUR 200 million one-offs, which Gerald has already explained. And once again, with the outlook for the free cash flow of a bit more than EUR 100 million.

So thank you for your attention, and I think you have a lot of questions.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Alain Gabriel from Morgan Stanley.

[Alain Gabriel, analyst]

I have 2 of them, please. Firstly, on the guidance, you have referred to the German OEMs in China being weak. Over the last 3 months, what is driving this change? Is it lower volumes? Is it lower prices? Or combination or is it higher costs? That's the first question. And I'll ask the second one after you answered this one.

[Herbert Eibensteiner, executive]

Sorry, it's very easy. It's mostly volumes.

[Alain Gabriel, analyst]

Okay. Very clear. And the second question is in a scenario where the war in Ukraine ends, how will that impact your supply chains? Do you see any potential financial gains from a reconfiguration of your supply chains, whether it was energy or iron ore or any type of raw materials?

[Herbert Eibensteiner, executive]

Yes, we are still getting material from the Ukraine. So not the same amount as before the crisis or the war started. But yes, that can be an option, what the end of the war in the Ukraine would be for Europe. It's -- it would be very positive. So not only because of these political topics and the people are suffering severely in the Ukraine, but there is so many demand in rebuilding infrastructure, and this would be very positive for the European economy and also for Voestalpine.

[Alain Gabriel, analyst]

So on your iron ore supply, does anything material change going forward?

[Herbert Eibensteiner, executive]

No. Maybe the volumes can increase and again. That's the only change.

[Operator]

Next question comes from Tristan Gresser from BNP Paribas Exane.

[Tristan Gresser, analyst]

Maybe just a quick one on the Ukraine question. Do you have any sense of the potential demand uplift from a resolution of the conflict and how Voestalpine could participate in that I think there were numbers out there of 5 million to 8 million-tonnes of potential demand uplift. And also, when you mentioned it could be very positive for Europe, but more specifically to the steel market. Do you believe it's also a possibility that if there is a piece that we'll see the return of Russian steel export on European. So that's my first question.

[Herbert Eibensteiner, executive]

I think when it's -- in this Ukraine topic, we are mostly thinking of infrastructure topics that means railway infrastructure would benefiting from that. But also some other activities, high-performance metal tool steel, high-speed steel and so on is needed, I guess, and -- but the question about Russia is -- I don't know it's such a political topic so far. I have no idea how long this would take that this return of this imports what happens. It's difficult for me to say.

[Tristan Gresser, analyst]

Yes. All right. That's fair. That's really helpful. And then my question is on the U.S. tariffs. I know we discussed that in the past, but could you remind us maybe the volumes that you were shipping to the U.S. by product. Also, I'm interested how much of those volumes were under product exclusion, because it's my understanding that the product exclusion process has been revoked. So if you have an exclusion, it still works, but when it laps, you cannot renew it. So I was also curious when those exclusion that you got will lapse, and when you'll see the impact. And also, you've quantified the impact of this tariff in the past. If you could do that again, that will be helpful.

And if you could remind us also how it does work. When you pay -- do you pay the tariff? Does the buyer pay the tariff or you split it or exactly when you quantify the impact of the tariffs, what exactly does that include?

[Herbert Eibensteiner, executive]

It's a very tricky question right after the tariffs are imposed. But as far as we know it, that's in March, the tariffs will start and all the exemptions will end. I think that's clear so far. For us, we had -- we are paying tariffs also with the exemptions. The most affected part is OCTG business, I would say. And this was a figure you may remember in the past where we paid fully the 25% tariff without this quota rolling, we got in the last years. So this was around EUR 25 million -- EUR 25 million to EUR 30 million in tariffs. And when you add this High Performance Metals business, it's another EUR 10 million to EUR 15 million.

So I would say, in the worst case, a middle -- close to a middle double-digit figure when we would pay fully the tariffs. But it's worth to mention that we are totally focused in these imports into the U.S. on high-quality products. So most of these products are used in the U.S. and not produced in the U.S. So what should we -- I think we can carry on with our business, and there are so many and you mentioned a few of this models you can be to share the tariffs or the customer has to pay the tariffs when you're high, have high margin, maybe you can even afford the tariff. So it's not finally clear how it works. But worst case, we are calculating this, I would say, EUR 30 million to EUR 40 million.

[Tristan Gresser, analyst]

Okay. That's very clear. And maybe just a quick follow up on that.

[Herbert Eibensteiner, executive]

Just as an example. Let's talk about OCTG business. So the demand is 5 million tonnes in the U.S. So the U.S. can produce 3.5 million tonnes. So 1.5 million tonnes are remaining for imports. So the whole world is now affected by these tariffs. So who -- if there is need of these products, I think that the prices will rise and that customers will pay for this 1.5 million tonnes. There is no other way out at least from my perspective.

[Tristan Gresser, analyst]

Okay. That's clear. And maybe just a quick follow-up then on OCTG. There are some views out there that keeping Korea -- South Korea, sorry, on a quota would have been more helpful than allow them just to now pay the tariffs. Do you have a view there where you would have preferred Korea to stay on a quarter deal rather than now pay the tariff? Or do you think it's still positive overall?

[Herbert Eibensteiner, executive]

It's -- every single country and every market will now negotiate with the U.S. government. I think it's too early to talk about that. We have not a final view. What's clear is that it can be that the delivery streams will change in the course of the next year. But I think it's too early to discuss this because I think we are at the beginning of a negotiation phase, and I think that Europe will do that with the U.S., and we will see the outcome for the -- what we can say for us as Voestalpine as a whole, it's -- even in the worst case scenario, it's a manageable topic. And whatever we can achieve in negotiations between EU and the U.S. would be beneficial for us.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Michael Marschallinger, Erste Group.

[Michael Marschallinger, analyst]

I have 2, and they are both related on your auto business. Firstly, on the current call of dynamics, especially out of Germany, you mentioned December was weak months. Would you say colors in Germany are stabilizing at the moment or still declining weakening will be just interesting in what you're seeing in your order book?

[Herbert Eibensteiner, executive]

Yes, I think we are in a cyclical low. There is no further reduction so far. And we had -- January is finished. We had a very strong very strong production in January for the automotive industry. So this is -- for sure, this is restocking. That's clear, but I think that there is no further deterioration in automotive.

[Michael Marschallinger, analyst]

Okay. Got it. And then second question on your automotive outlook into 2025. We are seeing now some new regulation coming into for us on European level, this corporate average fuel economy and a lot of the German OEMs are still lagging behind the targets, especially one of your main customers Volkswagen. So it would be interesting in the discussion with the OEMs, what is their feedback? And how does this new regulation shift their volume outlook for 2025 [indiscernible] and ultimately, your volume outlook for 2025?

[Herbert Eibensteiner, executive]

As I mentioned before, I think we can say that it remains on the level we are at the moment. I do not -- in general, we are not only delivering to the German carmaker. We deliver to all the European carmakers. So I think that -- and we have some reduction in German carmaker car volumes replaced by Asian customers. So I think we are thinking on this European market and the European market will stay stable at this level so far. And this is an outlook for the next 2 months or 3 months.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Bastian Synagowitz, Deutsche Bank.

[Bastian Synagowitz, analyst]

I've got a couple. And my first one is actually also a follow-up on markets. And I guess it's really hard to be overly positive in an environment like this. But could you maybe talk about also the other end markets, you said automotive is stabilizing. Is there any area where you already start seeing any positive signs maybe even on pricing and demand in the more cyclical end markets such as machinery and energy as well.

And then maybe a little bit more looking out into next year already. And I know it's early, but is there any early views you may have on 2026 EBITDA already for next year? And is the current consensus around EUR 1.5 billion in the right place from your standpoint today? These are my first questions.

[Herbert Eibensteiner, executive]

Mr. Synagowitz, I think it's not unlogic to take this EUR 1.3 billion, and it's the one-offs to this EUR 1.5 billion. I think there are some uncertainties. We know that some businesses will be better in the next year, some stay weak. At least it's not -- again, it's not unlogic, but I think you will see a bandwidth in our next year's outlook and what we know is that we will reduce this capital expenditure to EUR 1.2 billion. And we have really clear goals for delivering free cash flow and all these measures in place and we have already started.

[Bastian Synagowitz, analyst]

Okay. Got you. And I mean you say that some areas you expect to go better. So which are the areas where do we actually see supportive trends already where you would be confident enough to there are things which are actually going better in the new business here?

[Herbert Eibensteiner, executive]

I think the stronger businesses stay strong. As I mentioned before, I think we are in at the bottom of the cycle and what can be then for the next months, I think the markets remain subdued, as I mentioned before, with the exception that we see this restocking, which is positive for us to make it clear. What I think, it is my personal opinion, when we will see some upturn than the first upturns will come in building and in machinery. I think household appliances and others will stay difficult, but this is my opinion and my feeling when I talk to economists that there is some fantasy in the course of the year after summer, maybe.

[Bastian Synagowitz, analyst]

Okay. And then just coming back on to your cut for 2026 CapEx guidance towards EUR 1.2 billion or below. Could you please share with us where exactly you've been cutting? Have you also been cutting on the front of decarbonization. And then related to that, -- it seems like the general enthusiasm on decarbonization has basically faded, of course, when talking also to maybe some of your peers. I guess this probably playing into your approach of a more measured transition speed here. But are you still convinced that these investments make sense? And could you please also give us some examples on where and how you expect to get a decent return on these investments, given that the demand for green steel and possibly also price premiums feel a bit more uncertain today?

[Herbert Eibensteiner, executive]

Yes. Well, I can say that it would be more expensive when we stopped some capital expenditure in our Greentec project. It's a big project. And I think we will go on with that. But in a big company like Voestalpine, there are thousands of also smaller investments, and we -- I think we did our job to reduce that to a certain extent and thus, end up in a figure which is by far lower than what we have forecasted previously. I think that's a figure where we don't have any of the other businesses, and we are very confident with these figures. By the way, it's not only next year, we will see in our planning that we will come in '26, '27 also with EUR 1.2 billion.

And so I think that's the positive thing is also part of our activities to create free cash flow. And -- so I can say this reduction won't harm any of our businesses. And as I mentioned before, we are happy with this step-by-step approach because we have a certain risk reduction. We have all the rules and regulations and laws are not gone. So we are part of the European Union still. We have our goals. But what I think is that we have gained flexibility with this first step, that's clear. And we are sure that also on the cost side because when we think about the CO2 costs, I think it's positive. It will turn out positive. Both things is, I think green steel will be a topic also in the future, and we gain flexibility. These are the main positive aspects in a nutshell.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Krishan Agarwal from Citigroup.

[Krishan Agarwal, analyst]

One clarification, if I may. Did you mention that in the March with the starting of the tariff, 25% tariff, the existing exemptions will end, and then you will pay higher tariff, both the old one and the new one. Is that the right understanding?

[Herbert Eibensteiner, executive]

So far, we understand that with middle of March, the exemption will end. And everybody who is importing steel and aluminum into the U.S. have to pay tariffs.

[Krishan Agarwal, analyst]

Okay. So effectively, the Section 232 plus the additional 25% tariff, if implemented, that will be the effective rate of tariffs on the steel imports?

[Herbert Eibensteiner, executive]

On the steel imports, the question is who is paying for that. And -- that's clear. And I think I elaborated on that before.

[Krishan Agarwal, analyst]

Yes. Yes. I understand. The second question is on the Greentec. I mean you mentioned that you spent EUR 370 million till date and then you sort of 60% of the CapEx is awarded. And do you mind providing an update in terms of what is the solution for electricity, the green electricity sourcing for the EAF, I mean, given that you're not too far away from the commissioning of the first one?

[Herbert Eibensteiner, executive]

Well, I think the green electricity in Austria, we have green electricity. And I think that's for the first step is everything clear. So we have the grids. We have the contracts also for electricity. More or less, we have contracts for scrap, we have contracts for HBI. So for this first step, everything is in place. And as I mentioned before, when it comes to CapEx, also on everything is on plan, and nothing has changed more or less.

[Operator]

Next question comes from Tommaso Castello from Jefferies.

[Tommaso Castello, analyst]

Thanks for the presentation. Most questions have already been asked, but I still have a couple, if I may. The first one relates to your stake in Corpus Christi. In case of retaliatory measures implemented by Europe versus U.S. tariffs, how would it impact your HBI supply? Is there any mitigating actions that you have in mind currently? And does it change your plans for the supply of HBI?

[Herbert Eibensteiner, executive]

I have no idea if HBI is part of this regulation measures. So far, I have heard it [indiscernible] is under discussion and motor bikes. But I don't know, so far, there is no -- we have no information and no hints that HBI is part of this regulation measures.

[Tommaso Castello, analyst]

I see. And then just coming back to your tool steel business because you have performed a number of restructuring plans to address the macro headwinds that are affecting the division and you said you are moving from standard grades to more advanced grades. But could you help us understanding a little bit better, which are the main end markets and what's the difference between these grades, right? Like so you are currently moving from standard to more advanced, but which are the key end markets that you are looking forward to supply basically?

[Herbert Eibensteiner, executive]

A lot of standard business is going into automotive business. And is living from new models, which is, at the moment, very, very low. That's one thing. And that's the reason why we decided to sell-off Buderus. But the other topics are going in aerospace business in higher-quality tool steels for oil, gas, other energy applications, medicine topics, watches, all those knives, tools, high-speed steel in all those activities, we think that the margin is higher. It's more complex, and this is the reason why we reorganized these things, and it's very working capital consuming, I would say, in this restructuring has the clear goal to make this complex activities, lighter in working capital and more efficient to cope with this complexity. And this is money and cash when it comes to the capital.

[Tommaso Castello, analyst]

I see. And just to clarify, when you say the aerospace sector, like the outlook is positive, and it will be reflected in good results from tool steel?

[Herbert Eibensteiner, executive]

Yes. This is clear, but also parts for aerospace as well.

[Operator]

Next question comes from Christian Obst from Baader Bank.

[Christian Obst, analyst]

First, when it comes to quotas on the European level, what do you expect? What you will decide at the end of March and maybe implement at the beginning of April. This is the first question.

[Herbert Eibensteiner, executive]

Quotas on the EU side, okay?

[Christian Obst, analyst]

Import quotas?

[Herbert Eibensteiner, executive]

Import quotas. To be very honest, I think we will see that normally in the safeguard measures, we will see a prolongation. And the question is how EU will proceed with the easing of volumes. And I think that's not clear so far. We have no information on that.

[Christian Obst, analyst]

Okay. When do you see any kind of impact on the competitive environment in Europe from the bankruptcy of Liberty Steel and all of the subsidiaries here?

[Herbert Eibensteiner, executive]

No, not really. When you think it's commodity, it's a commodity player. I think it's -- the volumes were very low in the last years, I would say, over the years. So not really, but we have a capacity in Europe of, I would say, 160 million tonnes, and we are producing 125 million tonnes. I think every player who is going out of business is positive for the market situation.

[Christian Obst, analyst]

Of course. And when it comes to the cost side, first on energy and second on personnel. Do you see -- or do you expect going into the next 12 months, maybe on the energy side, in sideways and some increase or some decline going forward. And what you also expect from the personnel side. Will the increase be again over proportionately? Or will you be able to mitigate a little bit the personnel cost increase you might expect?

[Herbert Eibensteiner, executive]

To your first question, energy, I think that there are so many information about gas, for instance, which is important, it's important for us. I think it's -- and also driving the electricity price. I think we are in the middle of a winter where we have very low production in wind and solar activities. So that's make pressure on gas. That's clear. So politically, the problem is Germany, more or less because without pressure to go out of power plants. It's -- I would say it's crazy, and it's also a driver in electricity. But I would say there is no structure, other structural topic that you can say that energy costs will rise further in Europe because Trump want to sell more OCTG to Europe. By the way, it's already the biggest supplier to Europe.

And I do not see on the gas side any long-term topic and the gas price is driving the energy price. I think the same in electrical energy. So we will some -- we'll have some topics when wind and solar energy is low. I think not all the countries have made their homework to tackle this volatility. But I have the -- I'm hopeful that the other countries are doing their homework in that case, building gas plants and all the other plants type, which can reduce this volatility in energy prices. We had last 3 weeks ago, EUR 700 per megawatt hour in Germany.

[Christian Obst, analyst]

And on the cost side -- personnel cost side?

[Herbert Eibensteiner, executive]

No personnel costs, I think everybody is now well aware that we -- there was a bit of overdoing in the last years when it comes to personnel costs, I think it's -- inflation is down, and I think we will see a development of wages accordingly, according to inflation, maybe in some areas a bit less.

[Christian Obst, analyst]

And maybe last one, maybe a little bit special one. Now as the coalition talks in Austria have failed, come to any kind of conclusion what do you expect for your country and what is the impact or what you expect from an impact for your business or for the industrial business as such, when there will be maybe some -- yes, whatever comes out going forward?

[Herbert Eibensteiner, executive]

I think we are export country. I think we will see another campaign, and we will see experts government coming for the next months. The pity is that there are big topics to do in Europe, clean industrial deal negotiations with the U.S. tariffs. All these decisions, as you mentioned before, with safeguard measures and so on, it's a bit that Austria is not part of this discussion on European level. But I wouldn't over estimate this actual situation. I think our world is -- our markets are around the world. And I think this is the main issue we are focusing.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Maxime Kogge from ODDO BHF.

[Maxime Kogge, analyst]

So first question is on U.S. tariffs. So obviously, an objective of the Trump presidency is to increase domestic steelmaking capacity. And in the case of OCTG, if prices are higher in the U.S. because of the tariffs that will encourage local players to develop capacity on the market. So is it something that you would consider yourself building your own capacity in OCTG as well as in other divisions like HPM where you are also affected?

[Herbert Eibensteiner, executive]

Yes, long term, maybe. I think the prices are higher in the U.S. I think that this will come. And as I mentioned before, when it comes to our processing activities, U.S. is our -- one of our target markets. We will further increase capacities there. OCTG, we will know. We have already enough capacity in OCTG and high-performance metals. We have our steel mills around the world in Europe and in Brazil. I think, but when it comes to processing activities, it's also in our strategic scope to increase footprint in the U.S. or into the U.S as well.

[Maxime Kogge, analyst]

Okay. And second one is on Metal Forming, which is a division that performed in Q3 produced an historically low result. In your view or the difficulties circumscribed to the auto sector? Or do you see the weakness, the structural weakness extending to other areas? And what could be the timing for a return to more normalized results of at least EUR 50 million of EBITDA per quarter. Could it be as early as Q4? Or should we wait until H1 or even H2 of next year?

[Herbert Eibensteiner, executive]

Yes, it's a very good question. This activity, most of these really negative effects coming from the automotive component business. And we have presented that we are in a reorganization phase and we will see it a 3 years program, but we will see a reasonable figure also already next year, and will increase in the next 2 years. So I would say next year, we can expect EUR 20 million to EUR 30 million plus in automotive components.

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Gerald Resch for any closing remarks.

[Gerald Resch, executive]

Thank you very much for your participation and the viral discussions. As usually, please feel free to contact me after the call in case further questions will come up during the afternoon. Thank you, and goodbye.

[Herbert Eibensteiner, executive]

Bye-bye.