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Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome, and thank you for joining JOST's First Quarter 2024 Results Conference. [Operator Instructions]
Our speakers today are Joachim Durr, CEO; and Oliver Gantzert, CFO of JOST Werke SE.
I would now like to turn the conference over to Joachim Durr. Please go ahead.
Yes. Thank you very much, and a very warm welcome to our Q1 2024 investor relations and analyst call in Neu-Isenburg, and let me go through the financial highlights.
At first, the markets were softer but we still reached a result of EUR 299 million in sales in the first quarter. That includes the contribution of EUR 21 million from the M&As that we have recently closed. The adjusted EBIT margin remained strong over the prior -- on the prior year's level at 11.6% despite this drop in sales, and our adjusted EBIT reached a total of EUR 35 million.
We're very happy with the cash flow development, where we also generated EUR 35 million, and that's more than double of what we had in the Q1 of last year. And with that, our leverage could be improved down to 0.09 -- to a factor of 0.09.
Our adjusted earnings per share came in at EUR 1.70, also very strong result and the adjusted net earnings to sales are at 8.5%.
So based on those numbers and the outlook that we have from our customers and from the market, we can confirm the outlook for 2024 that we've already given.
Let us look at the markets that we've seen in Q1. And as I already mentioned, we see a normalization and a drop from the record levels that we had, especially in Europe and in North America in the last year. So in that year-on-year comparison, we're now comparing an extremely strong Q1 2023 to a much more normal Q1 2024.
The truck markets in Europe, we saw a decline of 18% against that previous year's level; on trailers of 19%; and in the tractor markets of 20%. We more or less followed that market trend with a minus 18% that we've seen in our numbers. And the JOST numbers, they are organic. So here, we have excluded the M&A effect so that we get the fair comparison.
North America, the drop was even stronger. We've seen 15% on trucks versus last year; 25% on trailers versus last year; and also 25% on the compact and low horsepower tractors versus last year. Our sales came in at minus 28%. So we had probably a little bit of a destocking effect also at some of our dealers, especially in the trailer and in the tractor market.
Asia Pacific, stronger than last year, plus 5% on truck; plus 4% on trailers; minus 12% on tractors. We are not very exposed on tractors in Asia Pacific. So we also here followed the market with sales of plus 5%.
Okay. With that, I hand over to Oliver for the key financials.
Thank you, Joachim, for the overview. Let's jump now a little bit more into the detail, starting with the segment region, Europe first. And Joachim already took the wording normalization or normal, and that's exactly what we see with regards to the demand in Europe. Now we see this as a normalization after a very strong quarter 1 of last year, which was supported by strong pent-up effects.
Nominal wise, that means minus 7.9% in sales for Europe. Organically, as Joachim just shown, minus 18%. The difference here is mainly driven by the consolidation of JACSA, the business that we bought in quarter 3 last year, formerly known as Crenlo do Brasil. That's consolidated in Europe still and supported that reported -- the increase. FX impact, didn't have a big impact in sales in quarter 1 this year.
So let's jump now to the adjusted EBIT. Absolutely wise, following the organic numbers, not 100%. So we were able by adjusting fixed costs by having a good flexibility, especially in our Eastern European plants, to somehow mitigate the minus 18% in organic sales growth down to an only minus 13% decline in absolute EBIT. And this resulted then in an adjusted EBIT margin of 8% versus 8.5% in last year's quarter.
You always have to be in mind that we are -- the vast majority of the group headquarter costs are allocated into the region. This is why the fixed cost portion is a little bit higher here in Europe when compared to the other regions, and that for sure has a scaling effect when it comes to sales decline in that region.
Overall, the share of aftermarket and agricultural business in Europe stabilized and for sure helped to keep the margin on a very healthy level with 8%, as I mentioned before, in Europe.
Then let's go to North America on the next slide. Despite the minus 28%, driven by the market, as Joachim showed before, we had, again, a very strong profitability in North America. The sales were burdened, like shown, especially driven by the decline in the trailer market in North America. And so far, we hadn't a back wind from the agricultural market, that's still down and is also comparing here to a very strong first quarter 2023.
But on the other side, with the measures that we have taken in last year, portfolio optimization we mentioned a couple of times before in other conferences, we were really able to keep the margin at a very good level and indeed, increased it from 10.5% to 11.0%. And we are very happy with that. And the current momentum is still very healthy from a profitability point of view in our North American segment and underlines the flexibility that we have there. So very good profitability contribution there.
And then let's go to the Asia-Pacific-Africa segment. Here, we are reporting a reported growth of 3.1% in sales. Organically, that's even a little bit higher, 4.9% or almost 5% because we had some FX effects on sales in that region. We have basically still robust markets in all of the region, India, Australia, New Zealand and South Africa, and surpassing the strong basis even of prior year there as well.
The Chinese market was quite good in the first quarter, and we see here a step-by-step recovery of the truck and trailer market despite the overall situation in the Chinese economy, seems to be that we are in a favorable situation here. And we also had a small contribution from the company LH Lift, which we acquired last year. This company has a plant and a business in China as well, so not only in Finland and that's allocated to that region here.
When you look into the EBIT and EBIT margin, also, again, a very strong profitability result. The margin came a little bit down from 22.5% in first quarter 2023 down to almost 21%, but that's only driven by mix effects. As I said, the Chinese market for us was quite good in the first quarter, and the Chinese EBIT margin is a little bit lower than compared to the other countries in the region because of the different product mix here.
Overall, the proportion also of the Agricultural business is step-by-step increasing. We have a very successful ramp-up of our plant in Chennai in India. We are quite happy of that. That plant already contributed to sales in the first quarter and is already, in terms of adjusted EBIT, ahead of our budget and business case planning for that plant for 2024.
So that's the 3 regions.
Now consolidating to the group. What does that mean? As Joachim pointed out, driven by the market and cyclical declines, especially in transport in North America and Europe, we had to deal with a reported growth of minus 12.7% in sales from EUR 342 million down to EUR 299 million. Organically, that's almost 18% down, which is fully in line with the reported numbers that we get from the market associations and informations there.
The point is also that the agricultural market remains on a low level. There is stabilization seen, but it's not enough at the moment to give us really support for the overall company. That is somehow expected for the second half. But at the moment in that number, it is what it is, so to speak.
FX headwinds account for minus 1 percent points in reported sales and the overall contribution of the ramp-up of the M&A effects in sales is almost EUR 21 million in the first quarter of 2024.
Regarding EBIT, also again, like Joachim pointed out, very strong margins. So we were able, despite the decline in sales, to keep the prior year's margin at a level of 11.6%, underlying the resilience of our business, for sure, supported also by a strong aftermarket business in both business lines, but also benefiting from measures that we have taken in 2023. Again, as I said, especially in North America, we see clear positive effects from portfolio optimizations we did there. And we are still, at the moment, in favor of a good price level, healthy price level and a good level of material costs that we can keep down, so to speak.
So that's then for the group.
Coming now to our standard adjusted net income and adjusted EPS, which relatively plain vanilla this quarter. So we end up with a reported EBIT of EUR 28 million. If we then add up again, our typical normalization, especially from the PPA in this quarter, exceptions, with only EUR 1 million this quarter. We come to the adjusted EBIT of EUR 35 million and then deducting again the finance result and also our adjusted tax rate, we end up with an adjusted net income of EUR 25 million compared to EUR 30 million in first quarter last year.
We have to take here into account that this EUR 25 million versus the EUR 30 million even include a EUR 1.4 million rise in interest rates due to the EURIBOR. So that makes it even more impressive from our point of view. And if you go to the very last comment on that slide here, impressive is also the net earnings sales ratio was 8.5% still on a very, very high record-high level from a JOST perspective here.
Okay. Next page, our main KPIs we are tracking. ROCE, still on a level above 20%, almost 21%. So very close to the record level we had in first quarter last year, showing the efficient use of capital. And this in light of the sales decline, we believe is a very good result.
Equity ratio also stayed very strong and well above our threshold of 35% where we always want to be somehow and supports for sure the deleveraging of our company, which you also then see in the net debt figures. Joachim already mentioned that's due to the strong free cash flow we generated, so to speak second half of last year. And now again in first quarter this year, we were able to push that down to 0.93x EBITDA, and this for us is very important at the moment. It helps us, especially to keep the interest costs down and very competitive for the full year of 2024.
And please, to the next page, some cash flow and working capital figures. Free cash flow, I already mentioned, more than doubled in the first quarter. There are a couple of effects, but more or less, they are awash. So we have some support from the factoring program that we started and implemented in first quarter on the one side. So that's a positive impact.
On the other side, and you are all aware of this, we had to pay the final earnout payments for the acquisition of Ålö Group. And all in all, more or less, this is awash. So the EUR 35 million should give us a good flavor of the real performance in terms of free cash flow in first quarter and we believe is a very good one, to be honest.
CapEx, still under control with 2.2% fully in line with our target range of 2.5% for the year. And also working capital, you can see, for sure, we are here benefiting from -- also from the factoring program. But even on top of that, we are carefully looking about our inventories. Especially in an environment when sales decline, we need to do that. And also our payables development compared to last year actually was very good at the end of the quarter. So that means all in all, we were able to push the net working capital ratio down to 17.8% so even below the 18% mark. So from that point of view, giving us support, again, also for our deleveraging at the moment.
Then let's go to the next page. I think that's from my side. And with that, I will hand over again to Joachim for the outlook.
Yes. Thank you, Oliver. Let's come to the market outlook. This is how the main institutions and ourselves also see the market development for the full year. And as you can see, it's still a decline, a considerable decline versus last year, but it's not as pronounced as we've seen in the first quarter. Mainly this is because of the effect that we will in the later quarters compare already to a more normalized market level and not to the record levels that we're comparing to in Q1.
So let's go through it in detail. For Europe, we expect truck, trailer and tractors to be down high single digits, between 5% and 10%; North America will be more pronounced, 10% to 15% on trucks, 20% to 25% on trailers, tractors 10% to 15%; Asia-Pacific-Africa, we expect to be up by 5% to 10% in trucks and trailers, and around 0%, I would say, for tractors.
So as I mentioned, there still, a much softer year than last year, but it's not as pronounced as you've seen it in Q1 because the comparable base will be a different one for the remainder of the year.
So with that, we confirm our outlook. Based on Q1 numbers and the high profitability, we expect sales to decline single digits year-over-year from last year's EUR 1.25 billion. Adjusted EBIT, we also see a single-digit decline from last year's EUR 141 million in adjusted EBIT. Our margin will decline, but will remain in the strategic corridor that we have posed between 10% and 11.5%. And I already mentioned last time that we target to be in the upper half of this corridor. CapEx, you can expect to be somewhere between 2.5% and 2.9% of sales and working capital below 19% of sales. Last year, we had 18%. So we are confirming the outlook that we've given based on the Q1 numbers.
Also, I would like to inform you that we are using these more normalized markets, and we will continue to invest in the future of our company in many regards. And one that is kind of new, and that's why we're showing it here, is that we are also investing in strategic partnerships, in this case, with a company called Aitonomi from Switzerland, and Aitonomi is developing autonomous electrically-powered transport systems and software. They're integrating our products, and we are now strengthening our partnership with them with also a financial partnership.
We are investing a single-digit million amount into a convertible loan to support the growth of Aitonomi. And we will observe, of course, continue the already existing R&D partnership where we integrate our products and our autonomous systems into their vehicles and into their products.
So this is for us an important step in the road map to drive the technological change, the technological transformation to highly automated and autonomous vehicles.
To sum it up, we've had the opportunity to demonstrate our strong flexibility in the market environment that we've discussed. In this first quarter, we were able to defend our high adjusted EBIT margins despite the drops of sales and confirm our outlook for 2024.
The further improvements in working capital and the operational excellence boost the free cash flow and have accelerated our deleveraging down to a level of 0.93x.
And we continue to invest in the strategic opportunities to pave the technological road map for Transport and Agriculture and to strengthen our offering for the customers.
The strong shareholder value -- can you go back, please? Strong shareholder value is -- you have seen it in the return on capital employed, that remains almost at 21% and the cash conversion rate of 1.4 that we've had in Q1 2024.
And we see this current market environment as a window of opportunity to continue to invest and to strengthen our market position in mid- and long-term organic and inorganic growth.
I also would like to use the opportunity for you to pencil in our Capital Markets Day on September 10 of this year. So there we will be able to inform you a bit more about our strategy for the future and about more details of our company. So that will be September 10 of 2024.
With that, thank you very much for your attention, and we're looking forward to your questions.
[Operator Instructions] The first question is from Nicolai Kempf from Deutsche Bank.
Nicolai Kempf here, Deutsche Bank. Congrats to a strong start. Can you tell us just a bit more highlights on the input prices? I think that has been a major headwind over last year, but seems to come down. Can you give more color if that's going to help you? Or if you have to pass that on and what kind of impact you would expect of that?
Okay. Thanks, Nicolai. I will take that question. And you're right, Nicolai, no? For sure, it was a benefit in last year. We are still benefiting from that now. So what we see is we are able -- always backward looking, I cannot say anything about the future, to keep a good and healthy price level at the moment. And on the other side, in general, material costs are at least stable like 2023 or even go further down, and that gives us headwind.
We still believe that this is a benefit for the margin of 2024. And you might have seen that in the press release. Our guidance was always that we want to stay within the strategic margin corridor of 10.0%, up to 11.5%. At the moment, we are seeing very good chances to keep that, the final margin for 2024 in the upper half of it. And one effect is just what you describe, the benefit that we have. So at the moment, I think we are happy with that development, and we don't expect here a material negative deviation at least on the short term.
Yes. Maybe just to add to that. Our pricing, we have variable price components with some customers, and it's like a floater where these prices are then adjusted based on the material prices and some indexes. And where we have those typically, they are trailing impacts. So if the prices have been up and they're going down, then we have a little bit of a benefit because we enjoy the higher prices a bit longer before they really come down to the level. And when it goes up, then we have a little bit of a negative because we have to invest already in higher costs, and we don't get it in the prices yet.
So we are -- it's probably a true segment. We're still benefiting a little bit on that trailing effect of the variable price components in our prices with some of the global OEs.
Got it. And one follow-up on the pricing. Given that end market, for example, in trucks, are normalizing and you have some truck manufacturer like a big German one, selling that, especially market in Europe is getting a bit softer. Are they trying to do -- push you on prices and can't you try to lower price here?
That's constantly happening. And the motivation is always a different one. If it goes up, it's the higher volume. If it goes down, it's the more competitive prices. So our customers, they are continuously asking for a higher level of competition and they always find reasons why we should do that and then we negotiate like we always do. So I don't consider this a special situation.
Of course, now the reason is a price drop that they have also in their product. But as I mentioned, sometimes it's the higher volume that should generate lower cost for us. And that's the ongoing business. And of course, as a tier 1 supplier to the OEMs, you have to be competitive all the time, that's how you keep the market share.
The next question is from [ Pierre Castella ] from [ France Avenue ].
I've got three questions, if I may. The first one is with the stocks in the channel. Are you aware of any significant stocks either in trucks and trailers or in agricultural in the channel, in the solution channel?
Second question is on the Agricultural business. Did you expect this activity that you're quite new into to be so cyclical? A 32% drop seems to be like quite a step. And on the other hand, could we expect to see Agricultural in the coming quarters, bouncing by a number of that magnitude, i.e., 50%?
And the last question is to do with the net working capital. Congratulations on this amazing number. But is it a one-off? Or do you think that you will be able to maintain working capital there in the coming quarters?
Okay. [ Pierre ], thank you very much. I will take the first 2 questions and then the working capital, I will hand over to Oliver. The stocks in the channels, that's always a good question and it takes a little bit of discussion.
On trucks and trailers, we produce the products and they go to the assembly plant of our OEM customers. And if there is a stock on their yards or on the dealer yards, then that includes our products, and they have already been sold. In Ag, it's a little bit different, but I'll come to that. So what we hear is that our -- especially our truck OEMs, they have higher stock levels than they've had in the past. And that's also one of the reasons why they are producing less right now because they cannot produce as much into stock because the stock levels are already very high. And the same is true for the trailer manufacturers. But I see that already reflected in the numbers that they're showing to us and that they have in their call-offs.
On Agriculture, it's a little bit different. We still have a lot of tractors in the stock. But there, they don't necessarily have our loaders already because only some of them are delivered to the assembly plant, others will be fitted at the dealers. And the dealers have already been reducing their stock levels on loaders, knowing that the market would be somewhat softer versus the OEMs have continued to produce. And that's why we've seen this big drop in the tractor production because they have -- last year, they have continued to produce, but the sales have already gone down. So that's the answer to the stock levels.
We have stock levels in all, in trucks and trailers, on the dealer side, but they are already reflected in the call-offs that we see and also in our prognosis for this year. And on Ag, we believe that we will actually have a little bit of an early start because when the market comes back, then they will need loaders and they don't have very high stocks on loaders. They only buy them when they sell the tractor.
On your question about cyclicality, we, of course, knew that ag markets would be cyclical. I think we have one special effect and that's maybe not even a cyclical but a one-off effect that we've had in 2021 and 2022. And that is that we are very strong in the segment of these compact small tractors, where they have the loader and the digger in the back. And after COVID, especially in North America, a lot of people wanted this equipment because they wanted to be autonomous, and they wanted to be able to do everything around their house, do small construction works and so on in their large gardens or on their small farms. And we had a really special effect of these small products being purchased in very high numbers in 2021 and '22. And the stock levels that have -- and also in '23, we still had some of that. So we're now comparing to a once-in-a-lifetime bubble that we've had there.
On the normal agricultural business, we also have fluctuations and -- but they're not as pronounced as you would see them in the numbers that we are showing compared to last year and especially to the 2022 because that included that special effect.
With that, I would hand over to the net working capital question.
Yes. Yes, [ Pierre ]. And somehow, you are right now, for sure. There is a one-off impact there. As I said, we implemented factoring as part of diversifying our financing structure. And that helped us for sure in net working capital ratio a little bit. The overall impact here, as you could say, is something between 0.5 and 1.0 percent points. But for me as important, even if I adjust that, so adding that up back on the 17.8%, we are well below the guidance that we gave for 2024. And that's what we are watching and what we are trying to achieve, and what we can confirm at the moment. So yes, there is a little bit of an impact, but somehow this will stay until the end of the year.
[Operator Instructions]
For the written questions, we have 5 questions from Jorge from Hauck Aufhäuser.
His first question's regards the outlook given for the trailers in Europe for the full year, where volumes are expected to drop according to the numbers that we've given by 5% to 10%. However, volume development in Q1 was worse than that. And the question is, do you expect the market to improve in the second half of the year? Or is it due to the comparable basis being lower in the second half?
And following that question, there are talks about new subsidies for energy-efficient trailers coming into place in Germany in the second half of the year. And is that the reason you expect trailers to do better in the second half? What kind of impact do you expect from those subsidies/incentives for the trailer markets in Germany, but also in Europe?
Yes. The question concerning the market, I think I've answered it a little bit in the presentation, that the outlook for the year is not as pronounced as the Q1, and that is mainly because of the comparable base. We believe that the level of production that we are having right now will more or less be the level for the remainder of the year.
Maybe in some segments, we see a little improvement, but the reason why the overall number for the year is smaller than what we've seen in Q1 is mainly that the comparable base is going to change.
Especially on trailers, that is true because trailers last year, already in Q3 and Q4, had a fairly soft market. So we saw the decline in trailers in Europe already in Q3 and Q4, versus in trucks, we're only seeing it now. And that is the main driver.
On the subsidies for energy-efficient trailers, in one country, in Germany, we usually don't take -- don't put too much attention on that because these programs that are individual for countries, on a global effect, with our footprint that we have today, they don't really have a huge impact on us.
And with this specific one, I also don't believe that we will have a huge impact in the European market. Of course, it helps for a certain segment, but the segment is still very small, and it's more driving technology, then it would have a major impact to our numbers. Of course, everything helps. But I wouldn't overestimate that impact.
Okay. And the next question from Jorge is regarding the agricultural market. Can you please give a bit more color on what you're seeing now? Are there any positive signs coming from the market? How is the stock levels of dealers and OEMs? And also here, Q1 had a rather strong comparable basis. Do you expect the market to improve in the second half despite the typical seasonality?
The thing is when I drive around in my car, I see the crops growing and actually, at least here in Germany, it's growing quicker than any other year because we had such warm weather and that makes me very positive that we will need all this agricultural equipment and that it needs to be replaced and that it's going to be in use. And that is the main driver for our market.
So with that, of course, I expect that we've seen farmers being a little bit hesitant for 2 reasons. One is interest rates are high. There may be 3 reasons. Their equipment is not very old, that they are operating with. And on top of that, the OEMs have increased their prices very strongly due to the high energy cost, the high material costs and so on. And I think the farmers are just waiting, so -- and using their old equipment a little longer until they see a little bit of movement in the pricing or in the interest rates. And I'm positive that throughout the year or during the course of the year, when they start operating more in the fields, then that market will come back.
And the impact of that, I've already described a little bit. If it is a loader, we will feel that impact earlier because the stock levels that are at the dealers, when they are sold, it's not necessarily new production, but on a loader, it could be for us because the dealers don't have very much loaders in stock. On the remainder of the components, probably that would not have the same impact.
So yes, I'm positive that the market will come back. And if you look at the overall market and you take out and if you look at our Agricultural numbers, they're still much higher than what we had in 2019. So we're still at a very good level worldwide and also in Europe. But as I said, there will be a positive impact based on the fact that the farmers have been hesitant.
The final 2 questions from Jorge. Regarding the new production plant in India, did the new plant already contributed to sales in the first quarter? How is the ramp-up going? And are you able to give some color on what type of contribution do you expect from the new plant for the full year?
And also, the last question, are there any current M&A opportunities in the pipeline that you're looking into?
I'll take the Chennai question. So regarding sales contribution in first quarter, yes, there was a sales contribution. It's a low single-digit euro number, but fully in line or even, let's say, at the upper edge of our business case for 2024. We are quite happy from the volume point of view.
Operationally, the team is doing a great job there. We already mentioned that last week on our Annual Shareholders' Meeting, a great ramp up. We don't have any issues so far. Even with that strong catch-up that is now starting, we were able to achieve 100% delivery rate. So from that point of view, are doing quite well.
In terms of contribution, even with a low single-digit euro number, which again is fully in line with our budget for 2024, we were now able to cover not only all the variable costs, but also the fixed costs of the plant. So that's quite a success story. And for the full year, we definitely expect that at least the run rate of the first quarter is going to continue -- should be definitely higher when it goes forward.
Regarding M&A, probably Joachim?
India, so I think it has been an impressive project and a good start. But I can also tell you there's a lot of interest from other customers that know that we have this facility, and that's also helping. So if that leads to sales this year, I cannot guarantee, but we are in a lot of very positive discussions with customers that are very interested in the fact that we now have a plant in Brazil, in India, in China and, of course, in the Northern Hemisphere. And so that should -- or midterm generate certain sales on Agriculture.
Concerning M&A opportunities, we are constantly interested in analyzing the market for M&A. And to us, there's 3 things that are important there. One is, are we capable of doing that from an organizational setup? And I think we've proven with the integration of our Ag business and also with the 2 M&As that we've done last year, that we have that capability. We are making very good progress with the 2 M&As, with the project of integrating those 2 companies.
There's, of course, there's still some work that needs to be done. But overall, we're very happy with the way this is running and how well this integration is going. And so we feel fit to be able to do it. And when we have completed that, then I think we should have a capacity, an organizational capacity to do that.
The other question is do we have the firepower to do that, and you've seen the balance sheet. And I think there, we feel very well positioned with the cash generation and the balance sheet overall. The strength that we have in equity is -- we're very well positioned to do that.
And then the third one is, is there the right opportunity? And that's something that, of course, we continuously analyze, but we are also very detailed in that analysis and make sure that there is a good strategic fit that really can bring our business to another level and to the best level for our shareholders and for our employees and for our customers.
And if there are the right opportunities, as I said, we feel that we have the organizational and the financial capability to do it, and we are continuously looking for opportunities.
Are there any other questions?
There are no more questions from the phone now.
I would like to close the meeting. Thank you very much for your attention, and see you all in the Q2 call and in our Capital Markets Day on September 24 -- no, September 10, 2024, that was it.
Thank you very much for your attention.
Ladies and gentlemen, the conference has now concluded, and you may disconnect. Thank you for joining, and have a pleasant day. Goodbye.