Origin Energy Ltd
ASX:ORG
Intrinsic Value
Origin Energy Ltd. is an integrated energy company, which engages in exploration and production of natural gas, electricity generation, wholesale and retail sale of electricity and gas, and sale of li... [ Read More ]
The intrinsic value of one
ORG
stock under the Base Case scenario is
12.84
AUD.
Compared to the current market price of 9.78 AUD,
Origin Energy Ltd
is
Undervalued by 24%.
ORG could be a value trap.A value trap occurs when a stock looks inexpensive based on fundamental analysis but fails to reach its intrinsic valuation over time, often due to underlying issues not reflected in quantitative data.
Scrutinize beyond numbers; assess long-term potential.
Origin Energy Ltd's market capitalization is 16.8B AUD.
ORG stock price is 9.78 AUD.
ORG stock price (9.78 AUD) is 24% less than its Intrinsic Value (12.84 AUD).
ORG has downside potential of 1% compared to the average analyst price target.
Open Wall St Estimates
ORG's Revenue is forecast to fall at a rate of 1% per year over the next 3 years.
ORG has negative Free Cash Flow for the last twelve months.
ORG has positive Gross Profit for the last twelve months.
ORG's ROIC (Return on Invested Capital) has increased in the last 3 years from 3% to 6%.
ORG's short-term assets (5B AUD) exceed its short-term liabilties (5B AUD).
ORG's Revenue has dropped by 6% over the past 12 months.
ORG's ROIC (Return on Invested Capital) for the past 12 months is positive and is equal to 6%.
ORG's ROE (Return on Equity) for the past 12 months is positive and is equal to 18%.
ORG's Revenue has been growing by 8% per year for the last 3 years.
ORG has positive Operating Income for the last twelve months.
ORG's Altman Z-Score is equal to 2.02.
ORG's ROE (Return on Equity) has significantly increased in the last 3 years from -5% to 18%.
ORG's long-term assets (19B AUD) exceed its long-term liabilties (10B AUD).
ORG has positive Net Debt. This means that the company has more debt (3B AUD) than cash and short-term investments (1B AUD).
ORG has positive Net Income for the last twelve months.
ORG has negative three-year average ROIC (Return on Invested Capital): -2%. The company is not efficient at using invested capital to generate operating income.
ORG has negative three-year average ROE (Return on Equity): -6%. The company is not efficient at transforming stockholders' equity into net income.
ORG's D/E (Debt to Equity) is very low and is equal to 0.35.
Valuation Backtest
Origin Energy Ltd
Run backtest to discover the historical profit from buying and selling
ORG
stocks based on their intrinsic value.
Analyze the historical link between intrinsic value and market price to make more informed investment decisions.
Fundamental Analysis
Origin Energy Ltd
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Origin Energy Ltd
| Current Assets | 5.2B |
| Cash & Short-Term Investments | 1.1B |
| Receivables | 2.7B |
| Other Current Assets | 1.5B |
| Non-Current Assets | 13.7B |
| Long-Term Investments | 6.7B |
| PP&E | 3.4B |
| Intangibles | 2.6B |
| Other Non-Current Assets | 1.1B |
| Current Liabilities | 4.6B |
| Accounts Payable | 2.1B |
| Accrued Liabilities | 228m |
| Other Current Liabilities | 2.2B |
| Non-Current Liabilities | 5.2B |
| Long-Term Debt | 3.2B |
| Other Non-Current Liabilities | 2B |
Earnings Waterfall
Origin Energy Ltd
|
Revenue
|
15.7B
AUD
|
|
Cost of Revenue
|
-12.5B
AUD
|
|
Gross Profit
|
3.3B
AUD
|
|
Operating Expenses
|
-2B
AUD
|
|
Operating Income
|
1.2B
AUD
|
|
Other Expenses
|
417m
AUD
|
|
Net Income
|
1.7B
AUD
|
Free Cash Flow Analysis
Origin Energy Ltd
ORG Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Origin Energy Ltd's profitability score is 43/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Origin Energy Ltd's profitability score is 43/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
ORG Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Origin Energy Ltd's solvency score is 52/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Origin Energy Ltd's solvency score is 52/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
ORG Price Targets Summary
Origin Energy Ltd
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for
ORG
is 9.64 AUD
with a low forecast of 7.93 AUD and a high forecast of 11.03 AUD.
Shareholder Return
ORG Price
Origin Energy Ltd
| Average Annual Return | 9.94% |
| Standard Deviation of Annual Returns | 37.06% |
| Max Drawdown | -56% |
| Market Capitalization | 16.8B AUD |
| Shares Outstanding | 1 722 605 485 |
| Percentage of Shares Shorted |
N/A
|
ORG News
Last Important Events
Origin Energy Ltd
Significant happenings or occurrences that are of interest to investors. These could be company-specific developments or market-wide shifts.
Sentiment Analysis
Origin Energy Ltd
Company Profile
Origin Energy Ltd
Country
Industry
Market Cap
Dividend Yield
Description
Origin Energy Ltd. is an integrated energy company, which engages in exploration and production of natural gas, electricity generation, wholesale and retail sale of electricity and gas, and sale of liquefied natural gas. The company is headquartered in Sydney, New South Wales and currently employs 5,000 full-time employees. The firm is engaged in the exploration and production of natural gas, electricity generation, wholesale and retail sale of electricity and gas and sale of liquefied natural gas. The firm's segments include: Energy Markets and Integrated Gas. Energy Markets segment includes energy retailing and wholesaling, power generation and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) operations predominantly in Australia. Integrated Gas segment focuses on the investment in Australia Pacific LNG (APLNG) and management of LNG hedging and trading activities. The firm's projects include Surat and Bowen basins in Queensland, APLNG in Eastern Australia, Beetaloo Basin in the Northern Territory and the offshore Browse Basin in Western Australia.
Contact
IPO
Employees
Officers
The intrinsic value of one
ORG
stock under the Base Case scenario is
12.84
AUD.
Compared to the current market price of 9.78 AUD,
Origin Energy Ltd
is
Undervalued by 24%.
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