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Avalonbay Communities Inc
NYSE:AVB

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Avalonbay Communities Inc Logo
Avalonbay Communities Inc
NYSE:AVB
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Price: 182.55 USD -0.69% Market Closed
Updated: Mar 19, 2024

Intrinsic Value

AvalonBay Communities, Inc. is a real estate investment trust, which engages in the development, acquisition, ownership, and operation of multifamily communities. [ Read More ]

The intrinsic value of one AVB stock under the Base Case scenario is 165.63 USD. Compared to the current market price of 182.55 USD, Avalonbay Communities Inc is Overvalued by 9%.

Key Points:
AVB Intrinsic Value
Base Case
165.63 USD
Overvaluation 9%
Intrinsic Value
Price
Worst Case
Base Case
Best Case

Valuation Backtest
Avalonbay Communities Inc

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Fundamental Analysis

AvalonBay FFO Growth and 2024 Outlook
2023-Q4 Earnings Call

AvalonBay FFO Growth and 2024 Outlook

In 2023, AvalonBay Communities achieved considerable core FFO growth of 8.6%, bolstered by same-store revenue up by 6.3% and NOI increasing 6.2%. Their developments realized $575 million in completions, with impressive yields of 7.1%. Operational efficiencies netted $19 million of additional NOI, vastly surpassing expectations by 60%. Looking to 2024, they forecast a more modest 1.4% core FFO per share growth against a backdrop of economic slowdown and mixed markers. This foreseen growth is driven by their same-store portfolio and stabilized lease-up communities, counterbalanced by capital market influences and a rise in overhead. They predict 2.6% revenue and 1.25% NOI growth within their same-store residential portfolio.

Financials

Balance Sheet Decomposition
Avalonbay Communities Inc

Current Assets 764.4m
Cash & Short-Term Investments 397.9m
Other Current Assets 366.5m
Non-Current Assets 19.9B
Long-Term Investments 220.1m
PP&E 19.5B
Other Non-Current Assets 186.2m
Current Liabilities 891.6m
Accounts Payable 87.7m
Accrued Liabilities 502m
Other Current Liabilities 301.9m
Non-Current Liabilities 8B
Long-Term Debt 8B
Other Non-Current Liabilities 1.6m
Efficiency

Earnings Waterfall
Avalonbay Communities Inc

Revenue
2.8B USD
Cost of Revenue
-988.1m USD
Gross Profit
1.8B USD
Operating Expenses
-893.5m USD
Operating Income
886.3m USD
Other Expenses
40.9m USD
Net Income
927.2m USD

Free Cash Flow Analysis
Avalonbay Communities Inc

Last Value
3-Years Average
FCF Margin
Conversion Rate
History
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Fundamental Scores

AVB Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence

Avalonbay Communities Inc's profitability score is 56/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.

Positive Gross Profit
Positive Net Income
Positive Operating Income
Positive 3-Years Revenue Growth
56/100
Profitability
Score

Avalonbay Communities Inc's profitability score is 56/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.

AVB Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence

Avalonbay Communities Inc's solvency score is 39/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.

Long-Term Solvency
Low D/E
Short-Term Solvency
Average Altman Z-Score
39/100
Solvency
Score

Avalonbay Communities Inc's solvency score is 39/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.

Wall St
Price Targets

AVB Price Targets Summary
Avalonbay Communities Inc

Wall Street analysts forecast AVB stock price to rise over the next 12 months.

According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AVB is 199.08 USD with a low forecast of 183.82 USD and a high forecast of 217.35 USD.

Lowest
Price Target
183.82 USD
1% Upside
Average
Price Target
199.08 USD
9% Upside
Highest
Price Target
217.35 USD
19% Upside
View Analyst Estimates
View Analyst Estimates

Competitive Landscape

Ownership

AVB Insider Trading
Buy and sell transactions by insiders

Cumulative Transactions Amount
Period Sold Bought Net
3 Months
6 Months
9 Months
12 Months
Why is insider trading important?

Shareholder Return

AVB Price
Avalonbay Communities Inc

1M 1M
+4%
6M 6M
+1%
1Y 1Y
+13%
3Y 3Y
+7%
5Y 5Y
+7%
10Y 10Y
+91%
Annual Price Range
182.55
52w Low
152.5
52w High
197.91
Price Metrics
Average Annual Return 5.06%
Standard Deviation of Annual Returns 45.21%
Max Drawdown -47%
Shares Statistics
Market Capitalization 25.9B USD
Shares Outstanding 142 024 992
Percentage of Shares Shorted 1.64%

AVB Return Decomposition
Main factors of price return

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AVB News

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Company Profile

Avalonbay Communities Inc Logo
Avalonbay Communities Inc

Country

United States of America

Industry

Real Estate

Market Cap

25.9B USD

Dividend Yield

3.71%

Description

AvalonBay Communities, Inc. is a real estate investment trust, which engages in the development, acquisition, ownership, and operation of multifamily communities. The company is headquartered in Arlington, Virginia and currently employs 2,927 full-time employees. The firm's segments include Same Store, Other Stabilized and Development/Redevelopment. The firm develops, redevelops, acquires, owns and operates multifamily apartment communities in New England, the New York/New Jersey metro area, the Mid-Atlantic, the Pacific Northwest, and Northern and Southern California, as well as in its expansion markets of Raleigh-Durham and Charlotte, North Carolina, Southeast Florida, Dallas and Austin, Texas, and Denver, Colorado. The company focuses on metropolitan areas in these regions. The company owns or holds a direct or indirect ownership interest in approximately 278 operating apartment communities containing 81,803 apartment homes in 12 states and the District of Columbia and 17 wholly owned apartment communities under development. The firm operates under four core brands: Avalon, AVA, eaves by Avalon and Kanso.

Contact

VIRGINIA
Arlington
4040 Wilson Boulevard, Ste 1000
+17033296300.0
https://www.avaloncommunities.com/

IPO

1994-03-11

Employees

2 927

Officers

President, CEO & Director
Mr. Benjamin W. Schall
Executive VP & CFO
Mr. Kevin P. O'Shea
Chief Operating Officer
Mr. Sean J. Breslin
Chief Investment Officer
Mr. Matthew H. Birenbaum
Executive VP, General Counsel & Secretary
Mr. Edward M. Schulman
Senior VP of Finance, Principal Accounting Officer & Treasurer
Ms. Keri A. Shea
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Executive Vice President of Human Capital & Administration
Ms. Alaine S. Walsh
Vice President of Investor Relations
Mr. Jason Reilley
Senior Vice President of Brand Strategy & Marketing
Mr. Kurt D. Conway
Senior Vice President of Development - New Jersey
Mr. Ronald S. Ladell
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See Also

Discover More
What is the Intrinsic Value of one AVB stock?

The intrinsic value of one AVB stock under the Base Case scenario is 165.63 USD.

Is AVB stock undervalued or overvalued?

Compared to the current market price of 182.55 USD, Avalonbay Communities Inc is Overvalued by 9%.