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Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp
NYSE:MGY

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Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp Logo
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp
NYSE:MGY
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Price: 25.95 USD 1.65% Market Closed
Updated: Mar 29, 2024

Intrinsic Value

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp. engages in oil and gas exploration and production business. [ Read More ]

The intrinsic value of one MGY stock under the Base Case scenario is 26.09 USD. Compared to the current market price of 25.95 USD, Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp is Undervalued by 1%.

Key Points:
MGY Intrinsic Value
Base Case
26.09 USD
Undervaluation 1%
Intrinsic Value
Price
Worst Case
Base Case
Best Case

Valuation Backtest
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp

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Fundamental Analysis

Magnolia Oil & Gas Touts Strong Growth
2023-Q4 Earnings Call

Magnolia Oil & Gas Touts Strong Growth

In concluding 2023, Magnolia Oil & Gas reported robust fourth-quarter production, achieving 16% year-over-year growth with 85,400 barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOE/d), while the full-year volume increased by over 9% to 82,300 BOE/d. The company managed D&C capital of $91 million for the quarter, garnering free cash flow of $413 million, which equates to approximately 10% of the current enterprise value. Shareholders were rewarded with 74% of this free cash flow through dividends and share repurchases, as Magnolia continued to strengthen its balance sheet for strategic bolt-on acquisitions. The firm prides itself on exceptional returns on capital employed, maintaining low leverage and high operating margins compared to peers. Looking ahead, Magnolia anticipates a high single-digit growth of 7%-9% for 2024, with a capital budget of $450 million to $480 million, under 55% of expected EBITDAX. Though impacted by severe winter weather in January, first-quarter production estimates stand at 84,000 to 85,000 BOE/d, with full recovery and confidence in achieving the full-year growth target.

Financials

Balance Sheet Decomposition
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp

Current Assets 591.3m
Cash & Short-Term Investments 401.1m
Receivables 189.7m
Other Current Assets 447k
Non-Current Assets 2.2B
PP&E 2.1B
Other Non-Current Assets 112.9m
Current Liabilities 314.9m
Accounts Payable 193.2m
Accrued Liabilities 34.1m
Other Current Liabilities 87.5m
Non-Current Liabilities 749.7m
Long-Term Debt 392.8m
Other Non-Current Liabilities 356.8m
Efficiency

Earnings Waterfall
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp

Revenue
1.2B USD
Cost of Revenue
-199.8m USD
Gross Profit
1B USD
Operating Expenses
-472.2m USD
Operating Income
554.9m USD
Other Expenses
-166.6m USD
Net Income
388.3m USD

Free Cash Flow Analysis
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp

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3-Years Average
FCF Margin
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Fundamental Scores

MGY Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp's profitability score is 81/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.

Exceptional 3-Year Average ROIC
Exceptional 3-Year Average ROE
Positive Free Cash Flow
Positive Gross Profit
81/100
Profitability
Score

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp's profitability score is 81/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.

MGY Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp's solvency score is 79/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.

High Interest Coverage
Low D/E
High Altman Z-Score
Long-Term Solvency
79/100
Solvency
Score

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp's solvency score is 79/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.

Wall St
Price Targets

MGY Price Targets Summary
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp

Wall Street analysts forecast MGY stock price to drop over the next 12 months.

According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MGY is 25.8 USD with a low forecast of 18.18 USD and a high forecast of 34.65 USD.

Lowest
Price Target
18.18 USD
30% Downside
Average
Price Target
25.8 USD
1% Downside
Highest
Price Target
34.65 USD
34% Upside
View Analyst Estimates
View Analyst Estimates

Competitive Landscape

Ownership

MGY Insider Trading
Buy and sell transactions by insiders

Cumulative Transactions Amount
Period Sold Bought Net
3 Months
6 Months
9 Months
12 Months
Why is insider trading important?

Shareholder Return

MGY Price
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp

1M 1M
+14%
6M 6M
+13%
1Y 1Y
+21%
3Y 3Y
+133%
5Y 5Y
+124%
10Y 10Y
+169%
Annual Price Range
25.95
52w Low
18.81
52w High
25.95
Price Metrics
Average Annual Return 37.83%
Standard Deviation of Annual Returns 94.51%
Max Drawdown -76%
Shares Statistics
Market Capitalization 5.3B USD
Shares Outstanding 204 280 000
Percentage of Shares Shorted 15.21%

MGY Return Decomposition
Main factors of price return

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MGY News

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Company Profile

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp Logo
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp

Country

United States of America

Industry

Energy

Market Cap

5.3B USD

Dividend Yield

1.87%

Description

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp. engages in oil and gas exploration and production business. The company is headquartered in Houston, Texas and currently employs 192 full-time employees. The company went IPO on 2017-06-26. The company is engaged in the acquisition, development, exploration, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquid (NGL) reserves. Its oil and natural gas properties are located primarily in Karnes County and the Giddings area in South Texas, where it targets the Eagle Ford Shale and Austin Chalk formations. The Company’s assets consist of a total leasehold position of approximately 683,145 gross (471,263 net) acres, including 43,511 gross (23,785 net) acres in the Karnes area and 639,634 gross (447,478 net) acres in the Giddings area. The Karnes County Assets are located in Karnes, Gonzales, DeWitt, and Atascosa Counties, Texas, in the core of the Eagle Ford Shale. The acreage comprising the Karnes County Assets also includes the Austin Chalk formation overlying the Eagle Ford Shale. The Giddings Assets are located in Austin, Brazos, Burleson, Fayette, Lee, Grimes, Montgomery, and Washington Counties, Texas.

Contact

TEXAS
Houston
9 Greenway Plz Ste 1300
+17138429050.0
https://www.tpg.com/pace-energy

IPO

2017-06-26

Employees

192

Officers

President, CEO & Director
Mr. Christopher G. Stavros
Senior Vice President of Operations
Mr. Steve F. Millican
Executive Vice President, General Counsel, Corporate Secretary & Land
Mr. Timothy D. Yang
Vice President of Finance, IR & Treasurer
Jim Johnson

See Also

Discover More
What is the Intrinsic Value of one MGY stock?

The intrinsic value of one MGY stock under the Base Case scenario is 26.09 USD.

Is MGY stock undervalued or overvalued?

Compared to the current market price of 25.95 USD, Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp is Undervalued by 1%.