Marathon Petroleum Corp
NYSE:MPC
Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one
MPC
stock under the Base Case scenario is
257.08
USD.
Compared to the current market price of 176.76 USD,
Marathon Petroleum Corp
is
Undervalued by 31%.
Let our AI compare Alpha Spread’s intrinsic value with external valuations from Simply Wall St, GuruFocus, ValueInvesting.io, Seeking Alpha, and others.
Let our AI break down the key assumptions behind the intrinsic value calculation for Marathon Petroleum Corp.
Fundamental Analysis
MPC Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Score
MPC Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Score
Refining margins remain heavily exposed to shifting crack spreads and fuel demand, and Marathon’s large footprint leaves it vulnerable to sudden swings in commodity prices and regulatory mandates.
Environmental compliance costs, especially related to renewable fuel standards and potential carbon pricing, could squeeze Marathon’s profit margins more than competitors with a smaller refining base.
Although Marathon simplified its portfolio by divesting Speedway, ongoing adjustments to its logistics and retail partnerships may generate integration challenges that could erode operational synergies.
Marathon’s leading-scale refining network grants it purchasing leverage and significant economies of scale, positioning the company to capture outsized margins when crack spreads widen.
Ongoing investments in renewable diesel and other low-carbon projects enhance Marathon’s ability to capitalize on energy transition incentives without fully divesting from its core refining business.
Its strong midstream subsidiary, MPLX, provides stable fee-based revenue, supplementing Marathon’s exposure to cyclical refining conditions and supporting robust shareholder returns.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Marathon Petroleum Corp
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Marathon Petroleum Corp
Marathon Petroleum Corp
Free Cash Flow Analysis
Marathon Petroleum Corp
| USD | |
| Free Cash Flow | USD |
Earnings Waterfall
Marathon Petroleum Corp
Wall St
Price Targets
MPC Price Targets Summary
Marathon Petroleum Corp
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for
MPC
is 202.32 USD
with a low forecast of 170.63 USD and a high forecast of 231 USD.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for MPC is
.
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
The intrinsic value of one
MPC
stock under the Base Case scenario is
257.08
USD.
Compared to the current market price of 176.76 USD,
Marathon Petroleum Corp
is
Undervalued by 31%.
