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Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd
OTC:GUOSF

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Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd
OTC:GUOSF
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Price: 2 USD Market Closed
Market Cap: $15B

DCF Value

This DCF valuation model was created by Alpha Spread and was last updated on Jul 12, 2026.

Estimated DCF Value of one GUOSF stock is 30.47 USD. Compared to the current market price of 2 USD, the stock is Undervalued by 93%.

GUOSF DCF Value
30.47 USD
Undervaluation 93%
DCF Value
Price $2
Bear Case
Base Case
Bull Case
30.47
DCF Value
Bear Case
Base Case
Bull Case
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DCF Value: 30.47 USD

Present Value Calculation

This block is the starting point of the DCF valuation process. It calculates the present value of a company's forecasted cash flows based on selected operating model. Adjust key parameters like discount rate and terminal growth, and alter inputs such as revenue growth and margins to see their impact on valuation.

DCF Model
Base Case Scenario

The present value of cash flows over the next 5 years amounts to 148B CNY. The present value of the terminal value is 646.9B CNY. The total present value equals 794.9B CNY.
Forecast Period
Years
Discount Rate
%
Show All DCF Settings
Terminal Growth
%
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DCF Value Calculation

This stage translates the present value into DCF value per share. For firm valuation models, it adjusts present value for debt and assets to derive equity value (skipped if using equity valuation model). Finally, this equity value is divided by the number of shares to determine the DCF value per share.

Present Value to DCF Value
Capital Structure

Present Value 794.9B CNY
+ Cash & Equivalents 457.1B CNY
+ Investments 1.3T CNY
Firm Value 2.5T CNY
- Debt 976.2B CNY
- Minority Interest 15.8B CNY
Equity Value 1.5T CNY
/ Shares Outstanding 7.5B
Value per Share 206.49 CNY
CNY / USD Exchange Rate 0.1476
GUOSF DCF Value 30.47 USD
Undervalued by 93%

Valuation Analysis

Sensitivity Analysis
DCF Value Sensitivity Analysis

Sensitivity Analysis assesses how changes in key factors like revenue growth, margin, and discount rate affect a stock's DCF value. By visualizing various scenarios, from significant downturns to optimistic growth, this tool helps you understand potential valuation shifts, aiding in risk assessment and strategic decision-making.

DCF Financials
Financials used in DCF Calculation

Revenue
72.9B 104B
Operating Income
33.6B 47B
FCFF
29.8B 38.7B

What is the DCF value of one GUOSF stock?

Estimated DCF Value of one GUOSF stock is 30.47 USD. Compared to the current market price of 2 USD, the stock is Undervalued by 93%.

The true DCF Value lies somewhere between the worst-case and best-case scenario values. This is because the future is not predetermined, and the stock's DCF Value is based almost entirely on the future of the company. Knowing the full range of possible stock DCF values gives a complete picture of the investment risks and opportunities.

How was the DCF Value calculated?

1. Present Value Calculation. Utilizing the DCF operating model, Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd's future cash flows are projected and then discounted using a chosen discount rate to determine its Present Value, which is calculated at 794.9B CNY.

2. DCF Value Calculation. The company's capital structure is employed to derive the total Equity Value from the previously calculated Present Value of the cash flow. This Equity Value, when divided by the total number of outstanding shares, yields the DCF Value of 30.47 USD per share.

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