Empresas CMPC SA

SGO:CMPC

Q1-2025 Earnings Call

[Fernando Hasenberg, executive]

Hello, everyone. I'm Fernando Hasenberg, CFO of CMPC, and I would like to welcome you to our first quarter 2025 earnings webinar. Joining me today, I have Francisco Ruiz-Tagle, CEO of CMPC; Gonzalo Darraidou, CEO of Softys; Guilherme Viesi, Chief Commercial Director of Pulp business; and Claudia Cavada, our Investor Relations Officer.

Please note that the statements made today during the presentation and Q&A may include forward-looking statements to assist you in understanding our expectations for future performance. These statements are subject to some risks and could cause actual results and events to materially differ.

In the first quarter of 2025, sales amounted $1.8 billion. EBITDA was $278 million and net income was $50 million. The Pulp business generated an EBITDA of $192 million with an EBITDA margin of 24.5%. EBITDA decreased by 17% quarter-over-quarter, mainly from lower sales volumes and average prices. Year-over-year, EBITDA increased by 7%, reflecting a higher volume and efficiencies in cost and expenses that allowed the margin to expand in the context of lower prices.

The Softys business reported an EBITDA of $81 million, decreasing 22% quarter-over-quarter and 51% year-over-year with an EBITDA margin of 10.7%. This business has experienced increased competition in this market as well as a negative impact from currency fluctuation in some countries on its year-over-year comparison.

Biopackaging reported an EBITDA of $31 million during the period with a 63% increase quarter-over-quarter, mainly to efficiencies in cost and operational expenses. Year-over-year, EBITDA declined 6% on lower average prices and margin contracted to 11.4% from the 12% recorded in the first quarter of 2024.

In the first quarter, the composition of CMPC sales was $785 million from the Pulp business, $755 million from the Softys and $271 million from the Biopackaging business, totaling consolidated sales of $1.8 billion. Consolidated sales were 6% down quarter-over-quarter and 7% down year-over-year. Quarter-over-quarter, the fluctuation reflects lower revenues across the Pulp, Softys and Biopackaging businesses. Year-over-year, the difference reflects lower revenues in Softys and Biopackaging. On the other hand, Pulp increased volumes from the BioCMPC project that ramped up during 2024 in a context of lower hardwood prices.

Operating costs reached $1,224 billion, reflecting a 3% decrease quarter-over-quarter and a 1% decrease year-over-year. Operating costs decreased quarter-over-quarter on lower Pulp volumes, together with efficiencies in Softys and Biopackaging. Year-over-year, the variation is explained by efficiencies in Pulp and Biopackaging. Other operating expenses, account that comprises distribution costs, administration expenses and other expenses by function, amounted $311 million in the first quarter, decreasing 6% quarter-over-quarter and 2% year-over-year.

Compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, all three business areas showed improvements. Year-over-year, the lower figure is related to decreases in Softys. In the first quarter of the year, other operating costs and expenses represented 17.2% of sales, stable quarter-over-quarter and above the 16.3% recorded in the first quarter of 2024. As said before, this is in the context of decreasing sale prices.

Given the aforementioned effect, on a consolidated basis, the company's first quarter EBITDA was $278 million, where the contribution of the Pulp segment was 63%, Softys was 27% and Biopackaging was 10%. Net income totaled $50 million during the period, an increase from the $10 million obtained in the previous quarter and a decrease from the $209 million in the first quarter of 2024. The quarter-over-quarter increase was driven by a lower income tax expense and higher foreign exchange gains. The year-over-year decrease was mainly due to insurance compensations received in the first quarter of 2024 and a lower EBITDA generation in Softys.

Now I would like to turn the presentation over to Claudia, who will provide more details on our results by businesses.

[Claudia Cavada, executive]

Thank you, Fernando, and good morning, everyone.

I'll start with the Pulp business. Pulp production was 1,081,000 tons, increasing 1% quarter-over-quarter and 4% year-over-year. These variations were driven by shorter maintenance downtime and, in the year-over-year case, increased capacity in Brazil from the BioCMPC project in Guaíba, which ramped up early 2024 and increased Guaíba plant capacity by 350,000 tons per year. Therefore, hardwood production was 887,000 tons, up 2% Q-on-Q and 5% year-over-year. Softwood production was 184,000 tons, decreasing 4% quarter-over-quarter and 3% year-over-year. Variations also reflect differences in maintenance downtime.

Regarding pulp sales volume, it decreased by 5% Q-on-Q and increased 13% year-over-year. In the Q-on-Q comparison, hardwood volume decreased 4% and softwood volume decreased 11% as a result of a combination of lower exports to China and the rest of Asia. In the year-over-year comparison, third-party pulp sales volume increased by 13% with softwood up 9% and hardwood up 14%. The increase in hardwood was due to higher exports to China, the rest of Asia, Latin America and Europe. For softwood, the increase resulted from higher exports to Europe, China, the rest of Asia and Latin America.

Regarding pulp prices, during the first quarter of the year, softwood sales price averaged $770 per ton, up 3% Q-on-Q and 7% above average price in the first Q '24. Hardwood sales price averaged $558 per ton, declining 3% Q-on-Q and 11% year-over-year. As a result, revenues for the Pulp business totaled $622 million, decreasing 7% Q-on-Q and increasing 1% year-over-year.

Regarding the Forestry business, sales volume was 913,000 cubic meters, rose 6% Q-on-Q as a result of higher sales of sawlogs, other wood and sawn timber. This was partially offset by lower sales of plywood and remanufactured wood. Year-over-year, a 3% decrease in the Forestry business reflects lower sawlogs, sawn timber and other wood. This was partially offset by increased volumes of remanufactured wood, pulpwood and plywood. With this, revenue for our Pulp and Forestry business totaled $785 million, down 6% Q-on-Q and increasing 3% year-over-year.

Moving to pulp cash costs. For hardwood, cash costs reached $211 per ton in the first Q '25, decreasing 7% Q-on-Q and 14% year-over-year. The Q-on-Q decrease was due to all cost lines showing reductions, with the most significant declines in wood and chemicals, followed by labor, materials and energy. For softwood, cash costs reached $370 per ton in the first Q '25, up 3% Q-on-Q and stable year-over-year. Compared to the previous quarter, the increase was due to higher energy and wood costs, partially offset by lower material and labor costs.

EBITDA of the Pulp business decreased 17% Q-on-Q and increased 7% year-over-year, recording $192 million with an EBITDA margin of 24.5%. Q-on-Q, the decline in EBITDA was mainly related to lower pulp sales volume and decreased margins to the lower average prices. Year-over-year, the increase was primarily due to higher sales volumes and operational cost efficiencies, leading to margin expansion in the context of lower average prices.

Moving to Softys. During the quarter, the business continued to operate in a highly competitive market and it has responded by focusing on brand building and positioning, particularly in personal care products and in markets with higher growth potential. Revenues totaled $755 million with a 5% decrease compared to the fourth Q '24 and a 14% decrease compared to the first Q '24.

Regarding volumes, Q-on-Q, Tissue Paper decreased 1% and Personal Care increased 1%. In the year-over-year comparison, Tissue volumes rose 1% and Personal Care volumes were stable. In terms of average sales price in U.S. dollar, for Tissue, it decreased 4% Q-on-Q and 15% year-over-year. For Personal Care, they declined 6% Q-on-Q and 14% year-over-year. These price fluctuations reflect, in the year-over-year case, currency depreciation in LatAm; and in the Q-on-Q case, a highly competitive market.

Softys EBITDA for the first Q '25 reached $81 million with a margin of 10.7%. The figure declined 22% Q-on-Q and 51% year-over-year and is a result of the aforementioned FX fluctuations and market conditions.

Moving to Biopackaging. Sales volume decreased 5% quarter-over-quarter, mainly to declined sales in boxboard, paper sacks, corrugated paper and other paper products. This was partially offset by higher sales of corrugated cardboard boxes and molded pulp trays. Year-over-year, sales volume increased 1% with higher volumes of corrugated cardboard boxes, other paper products, corrugated paper and molded pulp trays, and this was partially offset by lower sales of paper sacks and boxboard.

Average sales price in U.S. dollar was down 1% Q-on-Q and 2% down year-over-year. Revenues amounted $271 million, representing a 6% decrease Q-on-Q and a decrease of 1% year-over-year. The Q-on-Q variation was due to lower sales volume in a still challenging environment for several industrial sectors.

In the first Q '25, EBITDA was up by 63% quarter-over-quarter due to lower costs and operational expenses. Year-over-year, EBITDA declined 6%, reflecting a lower average price. The EBITDA margin reached 11.4% in the first Q '25, up from 6.6% in the fourth Q '24 and below the 12% recorded in the first Q '24.

[Fernando Hasenberg, executive]

Thank you very much, Claudia. Capital expenditures in the first quarter totaled $150 million, which compares to $261 million reported in the fourth quarter of 2024 and $152 million recorded in the first quarter of 2024.

Regarding the free cash flow during the period. There was a net $85 million positive cash flow compared to an outflow of $109 million in the fourth quarter of 2024 and a net outflow of $176 million in the first quarter of 2024. Year-over-year, the increase in free cash flow was mainly due to a reduction in dividend payments and a decrease in working capital requirements.

We ended the first quarter of the year with $4.8 billion in net debt. Gross debt was $5.5 billion and cash and cash equivalents, including financial investment with short-term maturities, were $666 million. The net debt-to-EBITDA ratio closed the quarter at 3.41x, which compares to 3.15x in the fourth quarter of 2024 or 4.03x in the first quarter of 2024. Regarding our debt profile, the average rate is 4.74% and the average maturity is 5.5 years.

Now I would like to highlight some important events that occurred during the first quarter. In the 2025 edition of the Standard & Poor's Global Sustainability Yearbook, CMPC was ranked for the second consecutive year among the top 1% companies worldwide with the highest sustainability evaluation. This year, only 4 Latin American companies were included in this group, with CMPC being the only Chilean company among them. The S&P Global Sustainability Yearbook recognizes companies from various industries across the globe for their sustainable policies and their positive impact on the environment, communities and financial performance.

On April 1, 2025, Softys initiated the financial integration of Falcon or Ontex Brazil. The acquisition includes a plant in Senador Canedo with 16 diaper production lines for babies and adults under well-known brands such as Cremer, PomPom and Bigfral. This integration strengthens Softys' presence in the Brazilian market, aligning with its growth strategy in high-potential sectors and reinforcing its leadership in the Personal Care business.

On April 21, CMPC sold its subsidiary, Transmisora de Energía Nacimiento S.A., TENSA, to Transmisión Eléctrica Transemel S.A., a leading transmission operator in Portugal. The $71.4 million transaction comprised 190 kilometers of power lines. This operation aligns with CMPC's strategy to focus on its core businesses by transferring a noncore asset to a specialized operator, thus enhancing operational efficiency.

On April 24, CMPC held its 106th Annual General Shareholders Meeting. This time, among other topics, the nine-member Board of Directors was fully renewed. The AGM also maintained the dividend policy at 30% and appointed EY as our external auditors for the period. The Board of Directors nominated Mr. Bernardo Larrain Matte as the new Chairman, replacing Mr. Luis Felipe Gazitúa. For more details of the AGM, please visit our web page ir.cmpc.com, Material Fact.

Now I will turn the mic to Claudia for the Q&A section.

[Claudia Cavada, executive]

Thank you, Fernando. [Operator Instructions] And we have here, as mentioned before, Francisco Ruiz-Tagle, our CEO of Empresas CMPC; Gonzalo Darraidou, CEO of Softys; Fernando Hasenberg, CFO of Empresas CMPC; Raimundo Varela, CEO of CMPC Celulosa; and Guilherme Viesi, Chief Commercial Director of CMPC Celulosa, Pulp.

We have already some questions. The first one comes from Tathiane Candini from JPMorgan.

[Tathiane Candini, analyst]

I have two questions. My first one is related to prices. So we have been seeing that the prices in the resale market in China have been decreasing, reaching the levels that we actually saw in 2023. And we already saw some companies actually announcing some price decreases from China. So I would just like to understand for you guys, like what are your views for the second quarter, even for the remaining of the year? We know that with trading war, a lot has changed. So I just wanted to see your perspective now going forward.

And my second question is regarding the Natureza project. So I think we know that it's a little bit early to start to discuss Natureza project. But when we think about the pipeline of projects for the end of the decade, we have -- like one project was like 3.5 million tons, another project in the process of 2.9 million tons. I would just like to understand like how are you guys analyzing the situation, if there is a possibility for you to postpone the decision or going a little bit further in the decade. Just like to understand your view on that.

[Guilherme Viesi, executive]

Tathiane, Guilherme here. I'll take the first question regarding prices. Well, the current price scenario especially in China is very unclear. It's natural. It happens every year. Sometimes the Chinese, when the market is very unclear, they take a step back and stop buying for a while until the price gets a little more transparent. The resale price is very low. We hear even below $500s now. The futures for softwood is at low $600s now.

We do believe that this is going to lead to closures in the market. And once those closures take place, the market tends to recover and find itself a price point that is clearer to move forward. We still believe looking forward through the year there is no new pulp capacity coming onstream this year, which leads us to believe that the price will eventually start going up because the market still grows organically worldwide. So at this point in time, we believe that the price announcement that was made reflects somewhat what's going to be applied during this month.

But it's still unclear, and also given the trade war, as you mentioned, brings further uncertainty to the price. The last point I'll make is that Chinese domestic producers of pulp have a marginal cost not far from the resale price that we are seeing at the moment. And in previous cycles, we have seen the Chinese, they're very pragmatic. They shut down their domestic production and they go to the market to buy market pulp. So we do expect this phenomenon to take place again this year.

[Francisco Edwards, executive]

Okay. Tathiane, thank you very much. This is Francisco Ruiz-Tagle. I will answer your question about Natureza. And well, just to mention that, first of all, CMPC is totally committed with the project Natureza. We believe that we have a very good project. When you analyze this project from a different standpoint, this is a very competitive project. So we continue working and concentrating now and starting the engineering and permits and advancing in the forest needs for this project. But we are on time and everything.

And what I have to tell you that we, at this moment, we are not thinking -- even thinking in postponing anything. We don't need to take the decision right now. So we will take the decision when we are ready for that. And there's still room ahead in terms of studies that we have and we are doing now. So my answer to your question is that we're very much concentrated in having -- in starting this good project now.

Of course, we haven't taken the decision. We are not expecting to have a decision about this project this year, will be next year, probably during the next semester next year. Because it will be at the moment when the Board define or take the decision about this project. But my answer is that we are 100% committed with the project. And in even what you are mentioning, we understand that there are other projects in the pipeline and we, of course, are seeing what is happening around us. But we don't need to take a decision now.

[Claudia Cavada, executive]

Thank you, Tathiane. The next question comes from Bank of America, Guilherme Rosito. Guilherme?

[Guilherme Rosito, analyst]

So I have a question on Natureza as well. I'm just wondering, with leverage around 3.4x, 3.5x right now, how are you thinking -- I know it's early stages as well, but how are you thinking the financing of the project? Is it going to be only debt? Are you thinking about selling some assets maybe to help fund it? And how much do you expect you could raise by selling those assets? So just trying to pick your brain on what will be the funding strategy for the project.

[Fernando Hasenberg, executive]

Thanks, Guilherme for your question. As we have mentioned before and very consistent with what Francisco just mentioned, we are committed with the project, and therefore, we are working on building this financial plan. But it's too soon to tell. It will depend on the cash flow generation in the coming months, the final decision.

But what I can tell you today is that we have a commitment to maintain a strong balance sheet throughout the execution of the project. And we'll build a financial structure that can support both the project, but also maintaining a strong balance sheet. And we will take all the measures to do that.

In the meantime, we are doing some things. We changed the covenants of our local bonds in Chile. We are working on some divestments. We already communicated the sale of a noncore asset in Chile. And we'll continue to work on that direction.

[Claudia Cavada, executive]

Thanks, Guilherme. Now we have a question from Marcelo Furlan from Itaú. Marcelo?

[Marcelo Palhares, analyst]

I have two here. It's actually a follow-up in the Pulp segment. So I'd like to understand how are you guys seeing demand going to Europe given the expected deceleration in the Chinese market, if you have seen already some read-through for the European order book since you also would like to see how is the market there, how you guys are seeing that.

And my second point is related to costs. So we have seen softwood costs increasing in this quarter. So I'd like to understand for both soft and hardwood, what we could expect for the full year in terms of costs for this division? So these are my two questions.

[Guilherme Viesi, executive]

Okay. Marcelo, thank you for the question. I'll take the first part of it. Europe remains good. The demand in Europe is solid. North America is solid. LatAm is also very good. China is the uncertain part of it. The only thing I would like to highlight is that China has bought few volume during March and very little volume from the market during April. That means that Chinese customers are with their inventories very low.

The trade war has an impact on the Chinese exports, but the Chinese export very little paper to the United States. So it leads us to believe that the inventories of pulp from the Chinese paper producers are low, and they will eventually need to come back to the table to start buying. We expect in April now to sell full volumes that we have forecasted for China -- in May, sorry.

[Raimundo Varela, executive]

Regarding the second question, this is Raimundo Varela, regarding the cost. We have been working over the last few years on our competitive program. And that is very focused on our forest costs and also on our industrial costs -- across all our supply chain, but of course, in our business forest and industrial is extremely important. And you are seeing that our costs are actually coming down. So we still have room to keep improving our costs, and some of our programs have not yet delivered the full extent of what we expect.

But we are happy with the progress both in hardwood and softwood.

In softwood, I think what happened is that in Q1 this year, we had a long shutdown at -- so annual maintenance at our Laja mill that is also going through some big repairs because it's an old mill. And therefore, that's why the cost in softwood have not come down. But throughout the year, you should see also cost improvement in softwood.

[Claudia Cavada, executive]

Thank you, Marcelo. The next question comes from Henrique Marques, Goldman Sachs. Henrique?

[Henrique Tavian Marques, analyst]

Quick question on Softys. The company has been struggling with the competitive landscape of the Tissue business. And I know you've been mentioning for a while that target for margins is between 15% and 20%. I just want to understand if you still see as viable to recover to these levels during 2025. And also, if you could comment on the impacts from Ontex and the first month of operation under CMPC, I think that would be great.

And my second question is regarding leverage. Your leverage has been high for a couple of quarters. Your net debt has increased again this quarter. And at the same time, you've recently announced the Ontex acquisition. We've seen news regarding CMPC's interest on IP's fluff business. I just want to understand what leverage ratio you feel comfortable operating, especially under this macro uncertainty scenario. So it would be great to hear your thoughts on that and what other options you're thinking to deleverage.

[Gonzalo Hernán Darraidou DÃaz, executive]

Henrique, thank you very much for your question. I am Gonzalo. In terms of our margins, we still believe that we are going to recover in the last quarter of this year very close to the level of 2024. That is because we have been developing a lot of different strategies like our revenue growth management and reducing our costs, looking for more efficiency. So we believe that in the last quarter, we can see recovering our margins.

In terms of Ontex, I can tell to you that we are taking control of Ontex Brazil. We are going to run that business in a stand-alone for the next, I will say, 12, 18 months. And that is because we strongly believe that we need time to understand their sales force process, their logistics process, et cetera. And then we are going to begin to integrate it and to capture all the efficiencies that we strongly believe that they're very, very relevant for Softys.

[Fernando Hasenberg, executive]

Regarding your question about leverage, Henrique, I can share with you that we are -- as I mentioned before, we are very committed to maintaining our investment grade. We have a public leverage policy that states that we have to be between 2.5 and 3.5x net debt-to-EBITDA. So today, we are at the top of that range, and therefore, we are working on several initiatives to improve that. The sale of some assets is one initiative. We are also working on some initiatives to improve working capital. And we are going to be very conscious also on capital allocation in order to reduce and to bring that ratio probably to below 3 by the end of the year. That's the goal.

[Claudia Cavada, executive]

Thank you, Henrique. Next question comes from Eugenia Cavalheiro, Morgan Stanley. Eugenia?

[Eugenia Cavalheiro, analyst]

I wanted to know if you could share a bit what's your view for the outlook for the Biopackaging segment and how you're expecting demand and prices to evolve there.

[Francisco Edwards, executive]

Well, thank you, Eugenia. This is Francisco Ruiz-Tagle. Well, we are basically in three different businesses: in boxboard, sack kraft and corrugated paper and boxes. My view is that we have still a kind of a weak market around the world in terms of packaging. It's not probably the best moment. So I see boxboard, which is our main product in Biopackaging, with a weaker demand during the last couple of months and very much connected with the economies of the world. This is the way we see that. We are not running now the first quarter at the budget level. We're a bit under the budget and hope to recover that within the next -- the rest of the year. But I would say, it's not clear.

And for the other business, sack kraft, still, we are very much in the Latin American markets and some exports to the United States. Those are our main markets. I would say still construction is affected. We are with a lot of -- we have a lot of influence from the cement industry. So still some weaknesses there. I hope to recover those markets in the future, but still not the best. And in corrugated boxes, which is mainly domestic for us, we have been doing really well and we see good opportunities. We are very involved in export products for this kind of industry. And this is doing really well during the last quarter, and I believe this will continue in that way.

[Claudia Cavada, executive]

Thank you, Eugenia. The next question comes from Alfonso Salazar, Scotiabank.

[Alfonso Salazar, analyst]

I have -- I think my question was already answered about Softys. But just a follow-up for Gonzalo. Is it possible to have an outlook by country, of the main countries where you operate? How you see the outlook for demand and margins on a different -- across different countries?

The second question that I have is regarding noncore asset sales that you still may have in the portfolio. Do you anticipate -- are you considering further asset sales for the rest of the year?

[Gonzalo Hernán Darraidou DÃaz, executive]

Thank you, Alfonso. This is Gonzalo. In terms of our main markets, Brazil, of course, is one of the most important. As you know, in Brazil, one of our competitors decided to increase in a very, I would say, dramatically the capacity. So we are in the moment of rebalancing the share, that it will take 2025 and probably 2026 to rebalance the share. And when that's finalized, that process, we are going to begin to see a little bit improving the price level. That is in the case of Brazil.

And in Mexico, as you know, that is the second main market that we are running our business. In Mexico, because of the Ontex acquisition that we did, we reinforce in a dramatical way our one-stop shopping. So we believe that we have a totally different portfolio to obtain advantage in the way that we run the business with our customers. We acquired 33% of the market share in terms of personal care, and that is reinforcing all our logistics, all our business plan with our customer.

So we believe that understanding that consumer income, disposable income in the case of Mexico is -- compared with previous year is in a lower level. We believe that in the last quarter of this year, Mexico, we are going to begin to recover our volume and our margins. Those are our main markets.

[Fernando Hasenberg, executive]

Regarding the second part of your question, Alfonso, as you probably will understand, it's hard to answer. But I can tell you that we are always looking at alternatives. And that's part of our Strategy 2030, and we are looking at additional alternatives.

[Claudia Cavada, executive]

Thank you, Alfonso. We have a question from Juraj Domic, LarrainVial. Juraj? I think he's not there.

Next question comes from Jose Ignacio Perez, BCI. Jose?

Now it's fine? No. Okay. So we have another question that came through the chat box. It's related from Constanza Gonzales, Quest Capital. She asked for the Pulp segment. And could you tell us about the prices and volumes during April and expectations about the second quarter in prices and volume?

[Guilherme Viesi, executive]

Okay. I'll take that. Constanza, thank you for the question. I think I alluded to in my previous answer, it's still -- May is still uncertain. April, we have sold our budgeted volume. Perhaps I'm giving a little bit of a forward-looking in terms of our price. We believe that the competition in terms of Pulp production both in Europe and in North America with the current price scenario are struggling.

Euro has strengthened a lot. Swedish krona has strengthened a lot. That impacts countries that have major pulp productions in the world. And with the current price scenario, they will inevitably be struggling. This cannot represent a sustainable scenario. Therefore, we believe the prices will start going up eventually once this market clears up this uncertainty. That's our view for pulp prices looking forward.

[Claudia Cavada, executive]

Thanks for your question, Constanza. [Operator Instructions] And we have another one in the chat box from Patria, Joao Mandaliti. Can you please elaborate more on the reasons behind anticipating the maintenance stoppage in Guaíba mill?

[Raimundo Varela, executive]

Joao, this is Raimundo. Thank you for your question. We did have a mechanical problem at our recovery boiler in Guaíba in April. And therefore, we have to anticipate our maintenance that was scheduled for late August and September this year, and we moved it to April to solve the problem we had. And we took advantage of that to do all the other maintenance that we have to do. So therefore, in April, we produced less because we had to stop for 14 days in Guaíba, in the Line 2. But in September, we will not do the maintenance, and therefore, we will recover the volume that we didn't produce in April. Thank you.

[Claudia Cavada, executive]

Okay. I don't see more questions. So we can conclude this earnings call for now. We want to thank you for attending today, and we wish you a good day.