Empresas CMPC SA

SGO:CMPC

Q2-2025 Earnings Call

[Fernando Hasenberg, executive]

Hello, everyone. I am Fernando Hasenberg and I would like to welcome you to our second quarter 2025 earnings webinar. Joining me today, I have Francisco Ruiz-Tagle, CEO of CMPC; Gonzalo Darraidou, CEO of Softys; Raimundo Varela, Guilherme Viesi and Claudia Cavada.

Please note that the statements made today during the presentation and Q&A may include forward-looking statements to assist you in understanding our expectation for future performance. These statements are subject to some risks that could cause actual results and events materially differ. In the second quarter of 2025, sales amounted $1.9 billion. EBITDA was $332 million, and net income was $81 million. The Pulp business generated an EBITDA of $205 million with an EBITDA margin of 27%. EBITDA increased by 7% quarter-over-quarter, mainly from lower cost of sales. Year-over-year, EBITDA decreased by 18%, mainly by a lower average price. The Softys business reported an EBITDA of $82 million, increasing 1% quarter-over-quarter and decreasing 38% year-over-year with an EBITDA margin of 10%. This business has experienced increased competition in its market as well as negative impact from currency fluctuation in some countries on its year-on-year comparison.

Biopackaging reported an EBITDA of $18 million during the period, with a 42% decline quarter-over-quarter, mainly due to lower volumes and higher cost. Year-over-year, EBITDA decreased 25%. In the second quarter, the composition of CMPC's sales was $761 million from the Pulp business, $817 million from Softys and $257 million from Biopackaging, totaling consolidated sales of $1.9 billion. Consolidated sales were up 5% quarter-over-quarter and 1% year-over-year. The quarter-over-quarter variation reflects an increase in Softys revenues, partially offset by lower revenues from Pulp and Biopackaging. In addition, this quarter, include a nonrecurring income of $74 million from the sale of TENSA, a subsidiary that had transmission lines. Operating cost reached $1.251 billion, increasing 2% quarter-over-quarter and 5% year-over-year. Operating cost increased both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, mainly due to the recognition of the cost of TENSA. Additionally, on a year-on-year basis, operating cost in the Pulp business rose driven by a higher cash cost in softwood.

Other operating expenses account and comprises distribution cost, administrative expenses and other expenses by function amounted to $324 million in the second quarter, increasing 4% quarter-on-quarter and 3% year-on-year. Compared to the first quarter of 2025, the increase is mainly explained by higher costs and expenses in Softys, primarily due to the integration of Falcon. The Pulp business also contributed to the increase, although their impact was more limited. In the second quarter of 2025, other operating cost and expenses represented 17% of sales in line with the 17.2% recorded in the first quarter of 2025 and above the 16.6% recorded in the second quarter of 2024. Given the aforementioned effects, on a consolidated basis, the second quarter EBITDA was $332 million. The contribution of the Pulp segment was 67%, Softys was 27% and Biopackaging was 6%.

Net income totaled $81 million during the period, an increase from the $50 million obtained in the previous quarter and a decrease from the $125 million obtained in the second quarter of 2024. The quarter-on-quarter increase was driven by a higher EBITDA generation. The year-on-year decrease reflect a combination of reduced EBITDA generation and lower net financial expenses.

Now I would like to turn the presentation over to Claudia, who will provide more details on our results by businesses.

[Claudia Cavada, executive]

Thank you, Fernando and good morning, everyone. We will begin with the Pulp business. In the second quarter, our total pulp production was 1,059,000 tons. While this represents a 2% decrease from the previous quarter, largely to the more maintenance downtime, it's a 3% increase year-over-year. This annual growth also reflects the higher capacity we have achieved from our BioCMPC project in Brazil throughout 2024. Breaking this down, hardwood production was 873,000 tons, down 3% quarter-over-quarter and up 6% year-over-year. Softwood production was 186,000 tons, a 1% increase from quarter -- from the last quarter and a 6% decrease from the prior year. These fluctuations also reflect differences in our maintenance schedule.

Looking at our sales volume, total pulp volumes decreased by 4% quarter-over-quarter and increased by 21% year-over-year. In a quarterly comparison, hardwood volume was down 5% due to lower exports to China and Latin America, while softwood volume was stable. In a year-over-year comparison, third-party pulp sales volume grew by 21%. Hardwood sales were up 23%, driven by higher exports to China, Europe and the rest of Asia. Softwood sales also increased by 12%, primarily from higher exports to China and the Rest of Asia. On the pricing side, the average sales price for softwood in the second quarter was $726 million per ton, decreasing 6% from last quarter and 9% from last year. The average sales price for hardwood was $550 per ton, down 1% quarter-over-quarter and down 25% year-over-year. As a result, revenues for the Pulp business totaled $603 million, decreasing 3% quarter-over-quarter and 2% year-over-year.

In our Forestry business, sales volume was 891,000 cubic meters, which is down 2% quarter-on-quarter and up 11% year-over-year, reflecting stronger sales of sawlogs, pulpwood, millwork and sawn timber. Combined, total revenues for our Pulp and Forestry business were $761 million, down 3% from the previous quarter and up 1% from last year.

Next, let's look at the pulp cash cost per ton. For hardwood, cash costs were $223 per ton, a 6% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 3% decrease year-over-year. The quarterly increase was driven by higher cost of wood, chemicals, energy and materials. The year-over-year decrease was mainly due to lower energy costs. For softwood, cash cost reached $385 per ton, up 4% quarter-over-quarter and 9% year-over-year. All cost lines increased from the previous quarter and the prior year. The most significant Q-on-Q increases were in labor, energy and chemicals. Year-over-year, the most significant increase was the wood cost.

The EBITDA for the Pulp business was $205 million, marking a 7% increase quarter-over-quarter and an 18% decrease year-over-year. The EBITDA margin was 27%. The quarterly increase in EBITDA was mainly due to lower cost from maintenance downtime. The year-over-year decrease, however, was primarily a result of the lower average sales price. Next, let's discuss our Softys business. This quarter, the market remained highly competitive. In response, we have sharpened our focus on brand building and positioning, particularly for our personal care products and in markets with strong growth potential. Softys revenues for the second quarter totaled $817million. This is an 8% increase from the first quarter and a 7% decrease year-over-year.

Let's break down the volumes. Tissue Paper volumes were relatively stable, showing a minor decrease of 0.6% quarter-over-quarter and a slight increase of 0.2% year-over-year. Personal Care volumes increased by 12% in both the quarterly and the yearly comparisons. This growth largely reflects the integration of Falcon's diapers operations in Brazil. In terms of pricing, the average sales price for tissue products was stable quarter-over-quarter and declined 15% year-over-year. This was a result of currency depreciation across Latin America and the competitive market. For Personal Care, the average sales price increased by 7% quarter-over-quarter and decreased by 8% year-over-year, also reflecting currency depreciation in the region.

Softys EBITDA for the second quarter was $82 million with a 10% margin. This represents a 1% increase from the previous quarter and it's a 38% decrease year-over-year, which was a direct result of the aforementioned foreign exchange fluctuations and market conditions. Next, let's discuss our Biopackaging business. Sales volume for the quarter decreased by 10% from the prior quarter and by 7% year-over-year. The quarterly drop was primarily driven by lower sales of corrugated boxes, boxboard and corrugated paper, though this was partially offset by increased sales of paper sacks and molded pulp trays. The year-over-year decline was also due to lower volumes across most product lines, again, with molded pulp trays being a positive exception. Despite the drop in volume, our average sales price in U.S. dollars was up increasing by 5% quarter-over-quarter and by 7% year-over-year.

As a result, revenues for Biopackaging totaled $257 million, down 5% from the last quarter and 1% from the same period last year. The quarterly decrease was driven by the lower sales volumes, reflecting a continued challenging environment across several industrial sectors. Biopackaging EBITDA for the second quarter was down 42% from the prior quarter and 25% year-over-year. This was driven by a combination of lower volumes and higher costs. Our EBITDA margin for the quarter was 7%, a decrease from the 11.4% we saw in the first quarter and the 9.3% from the second quarter last year.

[Fernando Hasenberg, executive]

Thank you very much, Claudia. Capital expenditures in the second quarter totaled $327 million, which compares with $150 million reported in the first quarter of 2025 and to $146 million recorded in the second quarter of 2024. This is related mostly to the acquisition of Falcon Personal Care operation in Brazil for $124 million.

Regarding the free cash flow, during the period, there was a net outflow of $158 million, compared to an inflow of $85 million in the first quarter of 2025 and a net outflow of $22 million in the second quarter of 2024. Year-on-year, the decrease in free cash flow was mainly due to a lower EBITDA generation, higher capital expenditures related to the Falcon acquisition and increased income tax payment. We ended the second quarter of the year with $5 billion in net debt. Gross debt was $5.7 billion. Cash and cash equivalents, including financial investments with short-term maturities were $721 million. Net debt-to-EBITDA ratio closed the quarter at 3.65x, which compares to 3.41x in the first quarter of 2025 and 3.75x in the second quarter of 2024. Regarding our debt profile, the average rate is 4.74% and the average maturity is 5.2 years.

Now I would like to highlight some events that occurred during the second quarter. CMPC hosted an investor site visit to Guaíba. Attendees had the opportunity to observe the pulp production process on site from the nursery operations in Barba Negra to the operational unit in Guaíba. During the visit, we highlighted the competitive advantages of our forest assets in Brazil, the technological advancement applied to production and the logistics efficiencies of our operation.

Finally, I'm going to pass the mic to Francisco Ruiz-Tagle, our CEO, who will present and explain to you some important organizational changes we have introduced at the company. Francisco, the floor is yours.

[Francisco Edwards, executive]

Thank you, Fernando and good morning, everyone. I am pleased to share with you an important step of our 2030 Strategy, a journey we began 5 years ago. As you may have seen in our earnings release, we have transitioned to a new functional organizational structure that better aligns with our [indiscernible] different chains. This has led to the creation of 4 operational areas dedicated to forestry operation, industrial operations, commercial activities and wood and packaging products. These functional areas will be supported by 6 cross-functional areas. One is projects and strategy. Two is new business ventures. Another one is finance and technology. Then we also have corporate affairs and sustainability and finally, human resources and legal.

Our goal remains the same, to drive greater efficiency, deepen collaborations and sharpen our focus on the opportunities and challenges ahead. As part of these changes, I am delighted to announce the appointment of Fernando Hasenberg as the COO of our Forestry operation. As many of you know, he brings deep expertise and leadership to this important pillar of our company. In his place as CFO, Sebastián Moraga will be joining the company. Sebastián holds a degree in Business from and has a Masters in Business Law and MBA from the London Business School. With nearly 25 years of experience, he has held various executive roles in the energy and banking sectors. Sebastián's role will be key in ensuring financial excellence while also leading the digital and technological transformation that will drive CMPC into the future.

This new structure also means Raimundo Varela will serve as the Chief Commercial Officer for Pulp and Boxboard. This move is designed to strengthen the commercial performance of our main businesses. This structural changes are part of a broader culture evolution and are designed to bring us closer to the business, strengthen collaboration across the teams and keep us focused on what matter most, our customers, our people and sustainable growth.

With that, Claudia, we can now start the Q&A session.

[Claudia Cavada, executive]

Thank you, Francisco and thank you, Fernando. [Operator Instructions]. As mentioned before, we have today Francisco, Gonzalo, Fernando, Raimundo and Guilherme to answer your questions.

And the first question we have is from Tathiane Candini from JPMorgan.

[Tathiane Candini, analyst]

My first question is regarding prices, right? So I think when it comes to our perspective, realized prices were actually better than we actually expected since all the discussions and all the pressure that we have been seeing in China. And yesterday, we saw like a competitor to actually try to pass some price hikes in China, so $20 per ton. So my first question is that I would like to hear from you, how are negotiations on China? What is your perspective for the coming quarter? We see that inventories are lower in the region but we are yet to see some capacity shutdown. So I think there are still a lot of uncertainty when it comes to pulp prices in the coming months. So I would be glad to hear your thoughts on that.

And if I may, my second question is on Softys. I think going the other like direction on the pulp unit, I think the results came a little bit worse than we expected and mainly on costs. We saw margins still compressed and this has been the story for a few quarters. So my question here is, what are the plans for units? And how do you see like some turnaround if there is something that the company can do it rather than the macro and that is a little bit more challenging?

[Guilherme Viesi, executive]

Tathiane, Guilherme here, I'll take the first one. Thanks for the question. Yes, we had a fairly good Q2 in terms of volumes, in terms of prices as well. Our inventories as CMPC have lowered a little bit from quarter-to-quarter from Q1 to Q2, which puts us in an even better position. September marks the, let's say, the start of the high season when it comes to demand of pulp. The Northern Hemisphere, as we speak now in August, they are in -- on holidays, most of them, they're on summer. They come out of this summer phase towards September that marks the beginning of a high season for consumption. We are pretty hopeful that the price increase will go through in September. We believe that given the scenario, very low prices are contributing -- will contribute to further closures. And during September and Q2, we're going to see a higher consumption of pulp. So yes, we will follow the market when it comes to price increases as well, and we are -- we believe that they are going to go through.

[Gonzalo Hernán Darraidou DÃaz, executive]

Tathiane, this is Gonzalo. According to your question, we have to analyze who our main market [indiscernible]. Okay, Tathiane, this is Gonzalo, sorry. As we understand, we need to go deeply in our 2 main markets that is Brazil and Mexico. In the case of Brazil, as you know, there is excess of capacity because Brazil, they are building in the last years. So we are suffering that pressure on prices. But we have seen in the market that the prices are a little bit increasing. And I hope that in the last quarter of this year, the prices in terms of Brazil, it will be in a better level in comparison when we are understanding what is happening today.

Now in the case of Mexico, this is a different situation because there is an excess of capacity according to what is happening with Trump and the state. There is some capacity. It will stay in the local market and it will put a pressure on the prices in the case of Mexico. So those markets, we're suffering that situation on those prices.

What we are doing? First, in terms of logistic, we are developing some different plans for both countries to try to optimize our cost. Second, in the case of the Personal Care, we're pursuing a very strong strategy to increase our volume on those categories that brings more margin. And third, we are totally focused and reduce our fixed costs in both operation. So we expect that in the last quarter of this year, we are going to begin to see a recovery in terms of our margins.

[Claudia Cavada, executive]

[Operator Instructions] And the second question comes from [ Barbara Suarez from Itaú ].

[Unknown Analyst]

And I would like to explore also the cost side but on the Pulp division. So we saw worsening in the cash cost dynamics for both softwood and hardwood sequentially on 3 [ merchant ] lines, salaries, energy, chemicals, wood materials. How should we think about these dynamics for the next quarters and for the consolidated year? And the second question is that despite the weakening trends on price, volumes and cash costs, we still saw improvement in EBITDA terms for pulp. And this was mostly due to the lower costs related to new downtimes. Could you guys give us more color on these lower costs? And how should we think about them ahead? Those are my questions.

[Raimundo Varela, executive]

Barbara, this is Raimundo. I'll take your questions. The first one, we have been working very hard over the last few years on our program to improve our cost. And if you see that the trend is quite positive. Our cost has been decreasing from 2023 to the situation we have today. Now yes, in this particular quarter, we had a annual shutdown in Laja and also in Guaíba. Therefore, the volume we produced was a bit lower and therefore, the cost is a bit higher if you compare with cost quarter-to-quarter. But this is not a reversal of the trend. So we expect that our cost will continue to improve. We have several programs that are in development and they have been giving us good results and we will continue to work on that. So we expect that performance.

And regarding the annual shutdown costs and expenses, yes, thank you for noticing. It's very, very important for us. We are also working hard and giving us results to have a lower maintenance cost. And these annual shutdowns are huge, are very relevant. So we did have in Laja lower expenses than what we had budgeted for, which is very good news. And we plan to continue doing that across our pulp mills, pulp and also boxboard mills.

[Claudia Cavada, executive]

We have another question coming from Guilherme Rosito from BofA, Bank of America.

[Guilherme Rosito, analyst]

My first one is for Guilherme, is a follow-up on the pulp price discussion. I'm just curious, usually when we see players hiking prices, there's a number of signs usually we see pointing to restocking and demand improvement. And as of now, at least from our side, we haven't seen most of them. So I'm just curious from your side, how are you seeing the signs of restocking and demand improvement that could sustain this price hike in the coming months?

And my second question goes to Fernando. Just touching on Natureza [indiscernible] if we look at CMPC's current enterprise value and divide it by pulp capacity, it is very close to Natureza's CapEx per ton. So for the same amount of dollars per ton of pulp, you could get CMPC's current capacity, which is first, second quarter, Softys business and Biopackaging. So I'm just curious, how are you guys evaluating them? And how do you see returns of Natureza compared to a buyback or other capital allocation options? Just to understand the framework and see why even at current valuation, you still think it makes sense to go ahead with Natureza and what's the value it's going to add to the company?

[Guilherme Viesi, executive]

Guilherme, thanks for the question. I'll take the first one. We do see signs of good demand, especially coming from China. Just to give you an idea, today is the 7th of the month and we have sold 100% of our volumes, both softwood and hardwood in China. That typically is a very good sign for us. On the very first few days of the month, the orders come through and we don't need to wait until the last days of the month to sell that. And again, I repeat, September tends to be a pretty strong month. There is a clear mark difference between August and September. August is a soft month in terms of demand due to holidays, especially in Europe and in China, summer holidays. So we expect September to come strong, followed by a quarter -- Q4, which is one of the strongest quarters in terms of demand. So we already see that in the early days of August, which is a pretty good indicator for us.

[Fernando Hasenberg, executive]

In terms of your question, Guilherme, thank you. We see the other way around actually. It's true what you say about the market cap of the company today being very similar to the investment in Natureza. However, the market cap not necessarily reflects the true value of our business. We have the conviction that today, CMPC is trading at very low levels. On the other hand, we know Natureza is the best project in the pipeline of other projects. And therefore, we are very convinced and we are very committed towards executing that project and to taking that project for Board approval, as we have said, during the first semester of next year. I don't know, Francisco, maybe you want to complement?

[Francisco Edwards, executive]

No, it's okay. No comment.

[Claudia Cavada, executive]

[Operator Instructions] And the next question comes Henrique Marques from Goldman Sachs.

[Henrique Tavian Marques, analyst]

I just wanted to better understand the company's plans before the Natureza project. Leverage remains high. You recently acquired Falcon, announced dividends. And pulp market, I mean, apart from the very recent price hike announcements, I mean it still remain very uncertain. So I just want to understand how do you plan to work around the Natureza project, so it doesn't weigh too much on your balance sheet? Should we expect more asset sales going forward like the one you did on the energy asset? Or is capital increase an option to fund the project or even delaying the project? Just want to understand the possibilities here.

And my second question, if I can, on the Softys side, just a follow-up on the cost. Falcon operation was already included in this quarter's results and EBITDA was still flat. I just want to understand if the higher cost and expenses for this quarter was a one-off because of the integration of Falcon? Or is there any reason apart from what you guys already explained on the higher cost for this quarter?

[Fernando Hasenberg, executive]

Thanks, Henrique, for your question. We have mentioned this before. We are working on different paths regarding Natureza. Of course, financing is one of that and we will inform at the right time. Of course, we're working on a very robust financial plan for that huge project. But currently, of course, we are also working on deleveraging. That's something that worries us and we have an -- and a strong -- we have different strong initiatives related to that. We are working on reducing working capital. We have different initiatives that will allow us to reduce about $300 million, our working capital. We are reducing our CapEx in about $100 million and we have several other initiatives. Some were mentioned by Raimundo in reducing our fixed cost. So we believe by the end of the year, we'll be in a better position to present the project to the Board, including a very comprehensive but a robust financial plan.

[Unknown Executive]

And just to add something, Fernando, to complement what you just mentioned that we are not thinking in delaying Natureza project. It's a very important point for CMPC. And yes, just to complement that we are really -- we think we have the tools for facing this period of harder period in terms of pulp prices. So just that complement.

[Gonzalo Hernán Darraidou DÃaz, executive]

Henrique, this is Gonzalo. Thank you for your question. In regards of cost, exchange rate effect directly to our cost. And in the first -- in the second quarter comparison, previous year, we're talking about around $50 million. And it has been not easy to pass through to the price because of the excess of capacity in Mexico and in Brazil. But in the other hand, what we have been doing is working very hard in terms of zero-based budget. We're working in logistic and operational efficiencies, like I already said. We are developing a very strong program in revenue growth management because if you cannot increase your prices, what you can be focusing to increase your income. And that is how you be more efficiency in terms of channel mix, in terms of promotion prices, et cetera. And in the execution, how we can improve our execution at point of sale. We are working on that. And that is the way that we believe that we can offset some part of the cost because of the exchange rate.

[Claudia Cavada, executive]

[indiscernible] has the next question.

[Unknown Analyst]

On the supply side, Chenming secured a CNY 2.3 billion loan to restart 2 key mills by September, so which should add pressure on global pulp supply. Do you guys have any thoughts on it?

[Guilherme Viesi, executive]

We actually believe that if Chenming really restarts their operations in the short term, it could actually be positive for the pulp demand. Our information is that they would most likely start their paper capacity but not necessarily their pulp capacity, meaning that they would be in the market to buy pulp for their operations. That's the information we have so far. We have been trying to get more information. As a matter of fact, we had one of the international consultants here in our office with us explaining about it and they have the similar view as we do that Chenming could possibly come to improve the pulp demand worldwide.

[Claudia Cavada, executive]

And the next question comes from Rafael Barcellos, Bradesco.

[Rafael Barcellos, analyst]

My first question is about the Natureza project and your overall leverage. So I understand that Natureza is a very important project for the company. I mean the company has been prepared for these projects for many years. But what are the liability management initiatives that you are planning before submitting the project to the Board? Fernando, for example, when we look at your amortization schedule, you have a significant part of the debt amortization in 2026 and 2027. So how are you planning to prepare the company before submitting the project to the Board approval.

And considering a scenario that the project is approved in the beginning of next year, from how many quarters would you be allowed to run above the limit of your leverage policy ratio? I mean, how would that work? I mean, what would be the plan or for how many quarters would you be allowed to do that? And then my second question, a follow-up on pulp markets. So a question for Guilherme. Guilherme, I just wanted to better understand whether you are following the recent price hike announcements? And how are you looking at the cycle, right? I mean every cycle is different. And this time around, we have much more uncertainties across the globe. So I just wanted to understand from you how you're seeing at this cycle this time.

[Fernando Hasenberg, executive]

Thanks, Rafael. So I'm going to take the first part. Regarding the debt, it's true. We have some bank loans that are due during 2026 and an international bond that is due in 2027. As part of the financing plan for Natureza, we should be financing those facilities in advance. So probably, we'll do something during the last quarter of this year, early next year. That's what I can comment right now. And I'm sorry, there was another question regarding our ratios. The financing plan considered that we will be within our policy throughout the project. Of course, we know that pulp prices could behave differently than what we are expecting. The project, of course, may have other problems. So the financing plan will be resilient in that regard. And we will have discussed in advance with the rating agencies so we can maintain our credit ratings. That's an important asset for the company.

[Guilherme Viesi, executive]

Rafael, thanks for the question. I'll take the second part. As I mentioned before, yes, I think the market will allow for the price increase. CMPC doesn't necessarily follow what our competition announced. We take our own decisions. But we see a scenario where we could apply the same, given our levels of inventory. Our levels, as I mentioned before, we dropped our inventories quarter-over-quarter. So we are in a much better position at the moment when it comes to inventories. We do see a demand picking up as of September, as I mentioned before, 100% of our sales have already been done in August, in the first week of the month, pretty good indicator. So if you add all of that together, we do see a scenario where prices could start bouncing back. We clearly see that we have reached the bottom and there is a space and there is a scenario building up for these prices to start raising from here towards year-end. We see that trend starting now in September.

[Claudia Cavada, executive]

Thank you very much Rafael and all the analysts that participated today with their questions. I see some questions in the chatbox that were already answered in the call. And so we don't have more questions for now and we can conclude this call. We want to thank you all for attending today to this earnings call and we wish you have a good day.