Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd
SSE:600519
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of 
Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd (600519) under the Base Case is 1 640.66 CNY per share.
Compared with the current market price of 1 453 CNY, the stock appears
Undervalued by 11% .
The intrinsic value is calculated using the DCF method. The model assumes Moutai's revenue grows 4.8% a year over the next five years, less than half its 12% pace over the last five. If revenue growth repeated that past pace, the estimate would be about CNY 3,154.
Do our valuations actually work? See backtest results .
Cheap or expensive for this stock?
This block shows whether today’s valuation is cheap or expensive compared with the stock’s own history, and what happened after similar valuations in the past.
We compare the gap between the stock’s price and our estimated value over time.
- Undervalued can still be historically expensive. The stock may trade below our estimated value, but usually offer an even bigger discount.
- Overvalued can still be historically cheap. The stock may trade above our estimated value, but usually carry an even higher premium.
Market expectations can differ from our model, which may not fully capture everything affecting the price. That is why some stocks regularly trade above our estimated value and others below it.
The scale and chart show how today’s valuation compares with the past. The cards summarize past returns and waiting times until the stock stopped being cheap or expensive. This can happen because the price changed, our estimated value changed, or both.
Only completed periods are included. These are past results, not forecasts. The usual historical range does not necessarily mean fair value.
Fundamental Analysis
What Kweichow Moutai Does
Kweichow Moutai makes and sells baijiu, China’s traditional distilled spirit, with its best-known product being Moutai liquor. It also sells other liquor products, packaging-related items, and some related services, but the business is centered on premium Chinese spirits. Its main customers are distributors, retailers, restaurants, gift buyers, and individual consumers who buy its products for drinking, gifting, or collecting.
- Headquarters
- China CN
- Employees
- 34 992
- IPO date
- Aug 27, 2001
Kweichow Moutai has a wide economic moat
Moutai’s prestige makes buyers willing to pay more for its liquor, rather than choose a cheaper substitute. Its longstanding place in Chinese celebrations and formal entertaining makes that reputation difficult for competitors to recreate.
Read the full moat analysis
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd
Earnings Waterfall
Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd
What is the Intrinsic Value of one Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd stock?
The intrinsic value for Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd (600519) under the Base Case is 1 640.66 CNY.
Is Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd stock undervalued or overvalued?
Compared with the current market price of 1 453 CNY, the stock appears Undervalued by 11% .
