ATD Intrinsic Valuation and Fundamental Analysis - Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc

Intrinsic Value

The intrinsic value of one ATD stock under the Base Case scenario is 62.01 CAD. Compared to the current market price of 79.43 CAD, Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc is Overvalued by 22%.

DCF Value

What is Intrinsic Value? What is DCF Value? What is Relative Value?

ATD Intrinsic Value

Overvaluation 22%

Intrinsic Value

Price

Worst Case

Base Case

Best Case

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Fundamental Analysis

Couche-Tard’s heavy reliance on fuel sales risks becoming a drag on long-term growth as electric vehicle adoption accelerates worldwide, potentially eroding one of its historically significant revenue drivers.

Its aggressive acquisition strategy could stall if regulators continue to reject or scrutinize major deals, as evidenced by the failed Carrefour approach, limiting Couche-Tard’s ability to expand its footprint and capitalize on market consolidation.

Continued declines in tobacco sales and possible future regulation restricting high-margin products may pressure in-store profit growth, challenging the convenience store core of its business model.

Couche-Tard’s track record of efficiently integrating acquisitions and extracting synergies could sustain robust earnings growth, as management has repeatedly shown the ability to bolster margins and return on invested capital post-deal.

Geographic diversification across North America and Europe adds resilience, with its Circle K brand scaling effectively in multiple markets and offsetting localized economic slowdowns.

Strong cash generation and disciplined capital allocation provide significant resources to invest in next-generation store formats, loyalty programs, and fuel alternatives, positioning the company for evolving consumer preferences.

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Bearish

Neutral

Bullish

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Wall St
Price Targets

Wall Street analysts forecast ATD stock price to rise over the next 12 months.

According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ATD is 89.79 CAD with a low forecast of 71.71 CAD and a high forecast of 126.68 CAD.