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MEG Energy Corp
TSX:MEG

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MEG Energy Corp Logo
MEG Energy Corp
TSX:MEG
Watchlist
Price: 29.34 CAD 1% Market Closed
Updated: Mar 2, 2024

Intrinsic Value

MEG Energy Corp. engages in the production of in situ thermal oil. [ Read More ]

The intrinsic value of one MEG stock under the Base Case scenario is 28.54 CAD. Compared to the current market price of 29.34 CAD, MEG Energy Corp is Overvalued by 3%.

Key Points:
MEG Intrinsic Value
Base Case
28.54 CAD
Overvaluation 3%
Intrinsic Value
Price
Worst Case
Base Case
Best Case

Valuation Backtest
MEG Energy Corp

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Fundamental Analysis

MEG's Strong Q3 Performance and Debt Reduction
2023-Q3 Earnings Call

MEG's Strong Q3 Performance and Debt Reduction

MEG Energy's Q3 2023 saw robust financial performance, spurred by high oil prices and advantageous supply-demand conditions, with WTI averaging $82 per barrel. The bitumen netback was CAD 84.75 per barrel. Production increased by 2% year-over-year to approximately 104,000 barrels per day. MEG also outperformed with a steam to oil ratio reduction of 5%. They repurchased over $853 million in senior notes and returned 50% of a CAD 409 million free cash flow to shareholders, with plans to increase shareholder returns to 100% upon reaching a $600 million net debt target next year. Operating expenses averaged CAD 5.11 per barrel, but power revenues brought this down to just CAD 0.04 net. Looking ahead, the TMX pipeline is expected to begin operations by the end of Q1 2024, enhancing market access for MEG's oil and potentially beneficial to WCS differentials.

Financials

Balance Sheet Decomposition
MEG Energy Corp

Current Assets 1.1B
Cash & Short-Term Investments 125m
Receivables 648m
Other Current Assets 348m
Non-Current Assets 6B
PP&E 5.9B
Intangibles 3m
Other Non-Current Assets 172m
Current Liabilities 626m
Accounts Payable 539m
Accrued Liabilities 43m
Other Current Liabilities 44m
Non-Current Liabilities 1.9B
Long-Term Debt 1.5B
Other Non-Current Liabilities 343m
Efficiency
Fundamental Scores

MEG Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence

MEG Energy Corp's profitability score is 55/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.

Exceptional 3-Years Revenue Growth
Positive Free Cash Flow
Positive Gross Profit
ROE is Increasing
55/100
Profitability
Score

MEG Energy Corp's profitability score is 55/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.

MEG Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence

MEG Energy Corp's solvency score is 55/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.

Low D/E
Long-Term Solvency
Average Altman Z-Score
Short-Term Solvency
55/100
Solvency
Score

MEG Energy Corp's solvency score is 55/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.

Wall St
Price Targets

MEG Price Targets Summary
MEG Energy Corp

Wall Street analysts forecast MEG stock price to rise over the next 12 months.

According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MEG is 30.72 CAD with a low forecast of 26.26 CAD and a high forecast of 36.75 CAD.

Lowest
Price Target
26.26 CAD
10% Downside
Average
Price Target
30.72 CAD
5% Upside
Highest
Price Target
36.75 CAD
25% Upside
View Analyst Estimates
View Analyst Estimates

Competitive Landscape

Shareholder Return

MEG Price
MEG Energy Corp

1M 1M
+21%
6M 6M
+15%
1Y 1Y
+29%
3Y 3Y
+349%
5Y 5Y
+462%
10Y 10Y
-14%
Annual Price Range
29.34
52w Low
18.88
52w High
29.34
Price Metrics
Average Annual Return 55.82%
Standard Deviation of Annual Returns 91.59%
Max Drawdown -85%
Shares Statistics
Market Capitalization 8.3B CAD
Shares Outstanding 275 085 000
Percentage of Shares Shorted 2.22%

MEG Return Decomposition
Main factors of price return

What is price return decomposition?

Company Profile

MEG Energy Corp Logo
MEG Energy Corp

Country

Canada

Industry

Energy

Market Cap

8.3B CAD

Dividend Yield

0%

Description

MEG Energy Corp. engages in the production of in situ thermal oil. The company is headquartered in Calgary, Alberta and currently employs 411 full-time employees. The company went IPO on 2010-07-29. The firm is focused on thermal oil production in the southern Athabasca region of Alberta, Canada. The firm transports and sells its thermal oil production to refiners throughout North America and internationally. The firm is actively developing enhanced oil recovery projects that utilize steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) extraction methods to improve the economic recovery of oil as well as lower carbon emissions. The firm's operating projects include Christina Lake Project, Surmont Project and Growth Properties. The Christina Lake Project is focused on oil development located in the southern Athabasca region, which is a multi-phased project located approximately 150 kilometres south of Fort McMurray in northeast Alberta. The Surmont project is located in the southern Athabasca region of Alberta, approximately 80 kilometres south of Fort McMurray.

Contact

ALBERTA
Calgary
600 - 3rd Avenue S.W., 21st Floor
+14037700446.0
http://www.megenergy.com/

IPO

2010-07-29

Employees

411

Officers

President, CEO & Director
Mr. Derek W. Evans B.Sc., P. Eng.
Chief Financial Officer
Mr. Ryan M. Kubik C.A., CFA
Chief Operating Officer
Ms. Darlene M. Gates
Senior VP of Legal, General Counsel & Corporate Secretary
Mr. Lyle S. Yuzdepski
Vice President of Operations
Mr. Thomas R. Gear
Director of Investor Relations
Ms. Helen Kelly MBA
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Senior Vice President of Human Resources
Mr. David Michael Granger
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See Also

Discover More
What is the Intrinsic Value of one MEG stock?

The intrinsic value of one MEG stock under the Base Case scenario is 28.54 CAD.

Is MEG stock undervalued or overvalued?

Compared to the current market price of 29.34 CAD, MEG Energy Corp is Overvalued by 3%.