` Comparison: AGL vs NG - Alpha Spread

AGL
vs
NG

Over the past 12 months, AGL has underperformed NG, delivering a return of -6% compared to the NG's +47% growth.

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AGL
NG
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Valuation Comparison

AGL Intrinsic Value
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NG Intrinsic Value
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Company Last Price Intrinsic Value DCF Value Relative Value Wall St Target
AGL Energy Ltd
ASX:AGL
9.855 AUD
National Grid PLC
LSE:NG
1 390.9871 GBX
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Valuation Scenario:
Bear Case
Base Case
Bull Case

Growth Comparison

Growth Over Time
AGL, NG

Revenue
www.alphaspread.com
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Company LTM Historical Growth Growth Streak % Positive Years Max Drawdown Volatility Forecasted Growth
3 Years 5 Years 10 Years 1 Year 3 Years
AGL Energy Ltd
Revenue
National Grid PLC
Revenue

All metrics are calculated based on data from the last 10 years.

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Profitability Comparison

Free Cash Flow
AGL, NG

Free Cash Flow
www.alphaspread.com
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Company LTM Average Historical Growth FCF Margin Conversion
3 Years 5 Years 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years
AGL Energy Ltd
ASX:AGL
National Grid PLC
LSE:NG
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What is Free Cash Flow?

Gross Margin

AGL
26.3%
NG
0%
LTM 3Y Avg 5Y Avg 10Y Avg
AGL Energy Ltd
National Grid PLC

Operating Margin

AGL
8.2%
NG
29.6%
LTM 3Y Avg 5Y Avg 10Y Avg
AGL Energy Ltd
National Grid PLC

Net Margin

AGL
-0.7%
NG
16.4%
LTM 3Y Avg 5Y Avg 10Y Avg
AGL Energy Ltd
National Grid PLC

FCF Margin

AGL
-2%
NG
-10.8%
LTM 3Y Avg 5Y Avg 10Y Avg
AGL Energy Ltd
National Grid PLC

ROE

AGL
-1.9%
NG
7.9%
LTM 3Y Avg 5Y Avg 10Y Avg
AGL Energy Ltd
National Grid PLC

ROA

AGL
-0.6%
NG
2.8%
LTM 3Y Avg 5Y Avg 10Y Avg
AGL Energy Ltd
National Grid PLC

ROIC

AGL
7.7%
NG
4.2%
LTM 3Y Avg 5Y Avg 10Y Avg
AGL Energy Ltd
National Grid PLC

ROCE

AGL
10.4%
NG
5.5%
LTM 3Y Avg 5Y Avg 10Y Avg
AGL Energy Ltd
National Grid PLC

Solvency Comparison

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Balance Sheet Comparison
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Stocks Performance

Stocks Performance
AGL, NG

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Performance Gap
AGL, NG

Performance Gap Between AGL and NG
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Performance By Year
AGL, NG

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Intrinsic Value is all-important and is the only logical way to evaluate the relative attractiveness of investments and businesses.

Warren Buffett