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Li Auto Inc
HKEX:2015

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Li Auto Inc
HKEX:2015
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Price: 57.95 HKD 1.67% Market Closed
Market Cap: HK$124.1B

DCF Value

This DCF valuation model was created by Alpha Spread and was last updated on Jun 14, 2026.

Estimated DCF Value of one 2015 stock is 71.34 HKD. Compared to the current market price of 57.95 HKD, the stock is Undervalued by 19%.

DCF Value
71.34 HKD
Undervaluation 19%
DCF Value
Price HK$57.95
Bear Case
Base Case
Bull Case
71.34
DCF Value
Bear Case
Base Case
Bull Case
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DCF Value: 71.34 HKD

Present Value Calculation

This block is the starting point of the DCF valuation process. It calculates the present value of a company's forecasted cash flows based on selected operating model. Adjust key parameters like discount rate and terminal growth, and alter inputs such as revenue growth and margins to see their impact on valuation.

DCF Model
Base Case Scenario

The present value of cash flows over the next 5 years amounts to 16B CNY. The present value of the terminal value is 35B CNY. The total present value equals 51B CNY.
Forecast Period
Years
Discount Rate
%
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Terminal Growth
%
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DCF Value Calculation

This stage translates the present value into DCF value per share. For firm valuation models, it adjusts present value for debt and assets to derive equity value (skipped if using equity valuation model). Finally, this equity value is divided by the number of shares to determine the DCF value per share.

Present Value to DCF Value
Capital Structure

Present Value 51B CNY
+ Cash & Equivalents 56.7B CNY
+ Investments 45.2B CNY
Firm Value 152.9B CNY
- Debt 20.5B CNY
- Minority Interest 520.5m CNY
Equity Value 131.8B CNY
/ Shares Outstanding 2.1B
Value per Share 61.58 CNY
CNY / HKD Exchange Rate 1.1585
2015 DCF Value 71.34 HKD
Undervalued by 19%

Valuation Analysis

Sensitivity Analysis
DCF Value Sensitivity Analysis

Sensitivity Analysis assesses how changes in key factors like revenue growth, margin, and discount rate affect a stock's DCF value. By visualizing various scenarios, from significant downturns to optimistic growth, this tool helps you understand potential valuation shifts, aiding in risk assessment and strategic decision-making.

DCF Financials
Financials used in DCF Calculation

Revenue
109.7B 179.9B
Operating Income
4.1B 5.6B
FCFF
4.4B 2.7B

What is the DCF value of one 2015 stock?

Estimated DCF Value of one 2015 stock is 71.34 HKD. Compared to the current market price of 57.95 HKD, the stock is Undervalued by 19%.

The true DCF Value lies somewhere between the worst-case and best-case scenario values. This is because the future is not predetermined, and the stock's DCF Value is based almost entirely on the future of the company. Knowing the full range of possible stock DCF values gives a complete picture of the investment risks and opportunities.

How was the DCF Value calculated?

1. Present Value Calculation. Utilizing the DCF operating model, Li Auto Inc's future cash flows are projected and then discounted using a chosen discount rate to determine its Present Value, which is calculated at 51B CNY.

2. DCF Value Calculation. The company's capital structure is employed to derive the total Equity Value from the previously calculated Present Value of the cash flow. This Equity Value, when divided by the total number of outstanding shares, yields the DCF Value of 71.34 HKD per share.

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