Central Petroleum Ltd
ASX:CTP

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Central Petroleum Ltd
ASX:CTP
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Price: 0.068 AUD Market Closed
Updated: May 26, 2024

Earnings Call Transcript

Earnings Call Transcript
2019-Q4

from 0
U
Unknown Executive

Good to go.

L
Leon Goss Devaney

Great. Well, thank you [ Eric ], and thank you for tuning in to this webinar and appreciate those of you who have made the journey over here in person to see it. So thank you for that. The last webinar we did I think was about 4 or 5 months ago, so there is obviously a significant amount of activity in this company that's happened in that period. We've gained a lot of traction. We've continued strong financial performance in our operations. There's some really interesting and good news flow on the exploration front. And under the surface, the company has been working very hard in augmenting an exploration team that's applying really best-in-practice analysis and strategy in terms of developing a forward exploration program for our vast exploration acreage.So a very exciting time. There's a lot of stuff to cover in this presentation. I'm not planning to go into detail on every single slide. Some of the slides, many of you would have seen previously. I'll highlight what's changed. I do want to leave some time for Q&A at the end because I suspect there might be 1 or 2 questions, maybe more. So we'll try and leave some time for that.The good news is I've got an additional presenter today. We're going to ask Duncan Lockhart, who is our GM of Exploration, to come up and talk about a couple of things: one being an update on our Dukas-1 well but also, importantly, talk a little bit about the exploration team that we've put together since Duncan's come on earlier this year and the really good work these guys have been driving since that time to really pull our exploration portfolio into position where we can make smart, very strategic plans in terms of how we're going to progress a significant exploration portfolio through the maturity phases into drillable prospects and commercialize. So we'll be looking forward to Duncan's presentation on that later in the -- later in the presentation. We put it at the end so that you'd be incentivized to stick through my part. So you have that to look forward to, but let's get started.And we've already moved the first one. So company snapshot, there's not a lot here that is new. I will point out a couple of things that have changed. What you can see, obviously, $135 million market cap. That's bumped up as a reaction to the increase in share price recently from our Project Range announcements. Interestingly, that has led to a 32% net gearing. Previously, you would have seen we're up in the 40s. We had brought that down to 39%. This has now dropped down to 32%. We are in a phase of accelerated debt repayment through the calendar year. We're going to continue to do that. That was intended to drive it, our net gearing down to the low 30s. Obviously, when the market cap goes up a substantial amount, that net gearing obviously comes down, and that's what we're seeing today. So that's an interesting development.The other thing I'd add is we do have, somewhere in here, we do have now a 2C that's including Project Range. So that number has jumped up significantly since the last time we presented this slide. And we'll go into Project Range in more detail later on in the presentation.All right. Jumping to our assets. Again, this is a slide many of you are familiar with. The one thing we have done is a Project Range as a development in our operations and development schedule. You'll see the 135. That's net to Central of 2C. And you can see how that compares with the balance of 2P reserves we have. So obviously, Project Range is an incredibly significant asset for this company. It's something that we're going to look to accelerate and commercialize as quickly as possible but incredibly exciting, and we'll go through that in more detail later in the presentation.The exploration appraisal, again, a lot of work has been happening on that front, particularly under the surface. So it's not visible. Obviously, the focus has been on Dukas and Project Range. But there has been an incredible amount of work that Duncan and the team have been doing in terms of analyzing the portfolio we've got. It is a complex portfolio and setting the foundation for us to come up with a very smart and strategic approach to near-term and medium-term exploration strategies. So we'll look forward to Duncan's explaining that in more detail later.Okay. You would have seen this slide as well. This is a 12-month highlight. So obviously, over the past 12 months, we've had an incredible amount of news flow. And we've talked about transformational change. That's certainly the case. And we're starting to see that gain traction within the company. Importantly, we have talked about the completion of the NGP and coming online and selling into the East Coast. That happened in January of this year. Obviously, that's been transformational.Some of the new things we've added in this is we've got some positive indicators from the Dukas-1 well, which we'll talk about later, but that's very encouraging for that exploration project. We booked 135 2C, which I talked about at Project Range, obviously, a significant number for us. This will be a significant project as we move forward to commercialize.And I do want to highlight we have finally, this month, completed the balance of our executive team with the inclusion of our CFO. So the CFO started earlier this month. And for the first time, I've actually got one hat on, which is the CEO, MD, which is fantastic. We've got some great people in the executive team and below them driving the business, and we are operating on all cylinders in this company at the moment and working very hard for what we currently have in our plate and what's coming up. So that's been a big milestone particularly for the business as we move forward.Okay. I think last webinar, I spent 90 minutes talking deeply about the noncash adjustments to our quarterly cash flow. And I'm not sure how many lasted through it, but we're not going to do that this time. This is going to be the one slide that we do talk about our quarterly performance for June. Basically, the story is we've maintained and been able to continue some strong financial performance quarter-on-quarter. Sales have gone up slightly. We've also got adjusted sales revenue. Those have accordingly gone up as well. Our average sale price ticked up a little bit. That's largely a result of what nominations come from what contracts. And that will vary slightly the average sale price. That obviously changes when we recontract coming up in 2020, and I'll talk about that in a little bit.Net cash flows from operating activity is fairly consistent. You'll see here, we've increased the amount of debt repaid this last quarter. So we are on that accelerated debt repayment, trying to drive gearing down the old fashion way by paying down debt. Obviously, the increase in market cap accelerated that, and we're down in the low 30s at this point in time. We're going to still drive down the quantum of debt outstanding, and so we'd expect to see that potentially lower going forward.This is what I was talking to. So 32%, we're at 42% the March quarter, so obviously, a substantial decrease in net gearing, which I think most of the investors would be encouraged to see. And net cash balance remains fairly strong as well. So all in all, the fourth quarter -- June quarter for this company has been consistent and strong and in line with what we were able to deliver in the Q3 period. Obviously, this is post NGP, which is reflected in the numbers.All right. Gas marketing. I know there's a lot of questions on where we're at in the gas marketing process. We do have uncontracted gas from 2020 when our Incitec Pivot contract rolls off. We are out marketing that gas, and we have been for some time. That's being done under a joint marketing arrangement with Macquarie, our joint venture partner at Mereenie. So we are going through that process. We've canvassed the market in depth. We do have a short list of potential customers that are -- we're working with at this point in time. Some of the key things that we are seeing: strong demand in Mt Isa in the East Coast market, which is probably not surprising. We knew there was a shortfall in that market. We're tapping into that. So we do see a strong demand there. We are negotiating several short-listed potential customers. We have a number of options, so we're confident that the demand is there. What we're trying to do at this point in time is optimize our ex-field pricing. So it's not just about finding a customer that will get take the highest delivered price. There's some additional things that we worked through, and I'll talk to that in a second. But that's a positive indication there. And continuing strong price signals for term supply post 2020, I think that's kind of code for we're hoping to increase our average sale price from 2020 and beyond as a result of this marketing process.The one thing I do want to highlight that many might not appreciate is when we go through the gas marketing, for us, there is a multitude of potential customers, all with the different delivery points and their own, to some degree, transportation portfolio. What we need to do is work through that and work through transportation arrangements to get it to those delivery points and where we can optimize both the transportation and the delivered gas price, we will get the highest ex-field pricing. And for us, that is really the focus, is to generate the highest ex-field price that we can. That means some significant negotiation and working closely with pipeline owners and the customers in terms of transportation strategy. We're working through that. That's not an easy thing that you just close overnight. We're working very hard with several pipeline owners and the number of customers that were shortlisted to optimize our ex-field price there.Target timing with all of that, we're still shooting for September and October. That gives us a number of months before our contract ends on 1 January with Incitec Pivot. So that is in process, progressing well. Personally, I'm not concerned. I think the market is strong. We will sell the gas. What we want to do is optimize the value of that for the asset, and that's what we're doing at this point... [Technical Difficulty]We've got some technical difficulties. It sounds like we're in a spaceship. Anyway, we're going to press on. There you go. [ Go to NICA ]. All right. Moving on. Our refinancing process, there have been a few questions on that. I just want to explain where we are. We have about $82 million currently in outstanding debt from Macquarie. It's actually due in September 2020. So we do have some time before that refinancing needs to happen. We've indicated that we are paying down debt aggressively this calendar year. And so by the end of 2019, we'd expect that to be down in the low $70 million range. Obviously, that is important in terms of the type of gearing that senior debt will give you and the pricing associated with it.A couple of other things. We have -- in aftermarket, we've got 3 major domestic banks that we are looking at. We've got indicative term sheets that we're working through. In order to actually select a preferred lender and get the refinancing done, we are trying to optimize in a number of ways. Obviously, executing a GSA is critical in terms of progressing a refinance facility. Accelerated repayments through 2019 is important in terms of getting our supportable debt number down for the refinancing facility as well that drives pricing and terms and conditions for that facility. And we are looking -- obviously, as we get more production at the field, we've only brought these online since January and actually, for one of the newer wells, PV13 that's only been in production, I think, from May. So any additional information obviously helps in terms of the confidence and the risk profile for the senior banks. That translates again into pricing in terms for that facility. So we are trying to optimize what we've got.The schedule for it, I think we'll be selecting a preferred bank to work with through a full due diligence phase in the next month or 2, and we'll get stuck into it. We are targeting, at this point, right here, where we have completed our accelerated debt repayment. That puts it at around January 2020. That still allows us plenty of time to have the funds available for our maturity in September 2020. So that's the outline of the schedule.Again, our objective is not to just get the first thing that comes across our desk and just do a refinancing for the purpose of it. What we want is something that's efficient both in cost and conditions and terms. But also now that we've got Project Range, we are looking at creating the opportunity to expand that senior debt facility to potentially cover some of the project financing we may want for that project moving forward. Okay?All right, near-term growth activities. So there's a few things that we're really focused on that we think are going to create some real value for the company. Obviously, the forward plan for the Dukas-1 exploration well, that's critical, and we are working hard with our joint venture, Santos, on that one. That's a priority. Duncan's going to talk a little bit about that further in his presentation. We do want to accelerate final investment decision for Project Range. Obviously, with this asset that we now have, given the exploration results and the booking of 2C, this is a significant asset for the company. And we are trying to get this into commercial production, start getting those cash flows as soon as possible. So we are looking at accelerating that process. Obviously, it needs to be coordinated with our joint venture partner, Incitec Pivot.We are working hard to convert 2C to 2P, and we'll talk a bit about 2Cs, but we've got a number of 2Cs at Mereenie in the Stairway. We are looking to reapproach that and try and convert those into 2Ps. We've got 2Cs at Palm Valley that we've announced recently where we're looking at wellhead compression or other field optimization to convert those 2Cs into 2Ps there as well. And obviously, the -- probably the most significant one is going to be going through our FID process and converting 2Cs at Project Range, which are obviously substantial in our portfolio, into 2Ps.Duncan's going to talk about these, which is our near-term exploration opportunities and near-term exploration strategy, in particular, talk about all the really important and critical work that they've been doing under the surface to allow us to come forward with new strategies, new targets and new plans that are both smart and we think provide a much better bang for the buck and opportunity for success than otherwise would have been the case. So I'll let Duncan expand on that. But that is a significant growth area for us that we've been focused on really since the beginning of this year after we delivered our GAP project.Okay, the Range gas project, I suspect there's some interest in this. This is an exploration program that recently wrapped up, and the results we announced exceeded our expectations. So it's a very exciting outcome for us. This was always a critical project. But the exploration results really exceeded what we thought we had both in terms of the conversion of 2Cs into 2Ps, the volume of recoverable gas we think we can get but importantly, the economics. And I'll talk a little bit about that because now we have potentially 3 producing zones, which means the recovery per well will be higher than it otherwise would have been. That drives the economics and the number of wells we get for a particular plateau.Let me step through that. I wanted to start with just taking a look back. The Project Range actually started in early February when I started talking to Incitec Pivot early on about how we might be able to coordinate and improve our ability to actually win a competitive tender. It was a highly contested permit area. There was a focus on domestic gas customers. Importantly, we did have CSG knowledge, and we understood CSG. And I'll go into that in a little bit. But our team does have a very deep and solid background in CSG in Queensland and the East Coast market generally. But one of the critical things is, if you remember in 2017, we had just undertaken the GAP project. We had raised some money. We did not have the financial capacity to commit to a significant exploration program, which you need in order to submit a bid to win a permit under the Queensland permit release program.So that was the landscape that we're dealing with. The evolution of the discussion with Incitec Pivot started with a very simple MOU. It was pretty clear that was not going to be a winning formula. We looked at a whole raft of other structures and commercial constructs, financial constructs that could find an opportunity for both parties to be comfortable and have a win-win, and we were successful in doing that and being innovative in how we did that with an outcome basically that we did win the bid. We did partner with a major gas customer, which obviously, I think, gave us a strategic advantage. We needed that in order to be a successful bidder.As I mentioned, commercial and financial strategy, very important in terms of getting the outcomes for both parties that allowed them to progress on this journey. And we did leverage, from Central's perspective, our proven exploration, production and development capability, which is really important when a government is going to hand over an important permit to somebody. They want to see that, that capability is there. We were able to leverage on that, demonstrate it. And obviously, the government saw us fit to take this permit and progress it into commercial production. So a very good outcome for us that I think is going to create and has created real significant value. I think this asset now is incredibly important to Central. And as we go through and people understand the potential for this to become a major gas production facility and location in Queensland, it's in the heart of the East Coast gas market, which we all know is short and in a state where new gas supply is critical. This is a fantastic location. We think we've got a fantastic asset. The economics look really strong. So this is a -- going to be a real focus for us over the next couple of years.Okay. Upside outcome, obviously, we had NSAI recently certify 270 on a gross level over 50% interest. So it's 135 petajoules of 2C. The primary cost, we had originally looked at maybe 150 to 180 as being a gross number. We would have half of that, 75 to 90. Obviously, that's a very significant increase in terms of the recoverable gas that we're looking at trying to get out of this permit. So that's a real positive. Largely the reasons for that. We had a good net coal thickness. Permeability was in line or better than what we had thought, and I'll talk a little bit about that. We had good permeability in a lower Taroom section, which really added a third production zone. And as I mentioned, that gives you more gas recovery per well, which obviously is really beneficial for the economics of the project.And importantly, it's suitable for really low-cost vertical, unfracked drilling program. That means we're not in the fracking territory. We're not out applying for significant fracking like you see in some of the unconventional projects. This is fairly tried and proven drilling technologies. They're not of the order of what we see in the Northern Territory, which are much, much deeper, harder rock. These are shallower CSG wells. And so there will be a campaign on those. And obviously, that does feed back into the economics of the project.I'll highlight this bit here, which is really we appear to be in a sweet spot. And the reasons for that is we've got a depth contour in our permit that is deep enough for gas content and shallow enough for permeability. And having both of those work together at this particular area actually makes it quite attractive and really something that we think the economics of this project will really benefit from.We do have, as I mentioned, a third production zone. That obviously helps with gas recovery per well, again, driving economics. What is interesting, and I think this is where we're starting to have some visibility of perhaps why this was such a significant success compared to what we originally thought, if you look here, we do appear to have an area that's enhanced by structural nose or what really are sort of folds in the coal seams throughout the block. You can see this here on the depth map. So what you'll see here is there's quite a bit of undulation in terms of depth contouring. They're not just straight lines. And what that means is there has been some geological activity that has shifted, moved, bent these coal seams. That does increase fracturing and increase permeability. And that, I think, is what we're starting to see in this particular block, which is why we think it's a real sweet spot in the Walloons.Okay. That's backwards. I'm going to go forwards. Want to talk about the 2C resources because we do have 2C resources currently in Central. We've got it within the Stairway at Mereenie. We have some 2C at Palm Valley. I wanted to highlight that 2Cs are not all the same. The 2Cs we're getting at Project Range, because there's such significant development around our permit from other producers and a lot of information available, what we're able to do is essentially fill in the gap and allow them to connect all the dots and understand how that fairway works in our particular area.It's a very developed and proven fairway. And so that all contributes to the 2C resources that we do have. NSAI have indicated it's development pending. And if you look over here, it is really the highest subclass of contingent resources before you start moving into the reserve base. And importantly, it's not dependent on coal properties or the application of technologies. What it's dependent on is here, which is really finalizing development plans, marketing terms, access to infrastructure and committed development of the resource. Those are all FID milestones, much more manageable, and we've had really proven capability to progress these types of activities to an ultimate FID and then an ultimate development. And so we're very comfortable that -- or high degree of confidence that the 2C resources at Project Range can convert over to 2Ps. And obviously, that drives the value of this asset for Central today but also the economic opportunity down the road, so very encouraging in terms of the type of 2C that we do have. And I think that's very important for shareholders to understand because some 2C are reliant on new technologies to make it commercial. We don't have that risk. It's much more manageable, and we see a really strong conversion of 2Cs to 2Ps as we go through our FID process.Okay. This is an interesting map, but I think it's important to put Project Range in context. What you see here is -- want to keep that on. There is Project Range. This is the Walloons Fairway here. You've got Woleebee Creek development up and around this part in the north, not too far from Project Range. You've got some QGCs permit with Berwyndale South down in this area. And as you can see, these gold bands or depth contours through the fairway and if you extend those out through the developed parts of the Walloons, you'll see there's been a very significant concentration of development within these depth gradients that are consistent with Project Range. Obviously, this has not been developed yet. We think Project Range will be a great catalyst to start that. There's a lot of plants down in the south feeding these existing wells that have been developed. And in the north, this is going to be a logical area as we start putting plants and equipment. There's pipelines already running through it, so it's really about surface equipment. And one of the opportunities we have is to work with our neighbors, particularly Shell and Arrow, to take a look at shared infrastructure and maybe reducing the overall cost, unit cost of production. Those are opportunities we'll look at. Notwithstanding the size of the 2C resource that we're talking about at Project Range really gives us confidence that we will be able to go forward just on its own stand-alone processing facilities and access existing pipeline networks that are in and around our project.There are a couple of recently reported CSG projects that I think are worth highlighting. We've got the Ironbark Project down here. That was actually recently traded at $231 million with reported reserves of 129 petajoules of 2P and 192 of 3P. So that puts in context some of that transactional metrics. Project Atlas, which is with Senex, is up here just north of us. It's on a slightly smaller block. I think they're 58 square kilometers. They've reported 144 petajoules of 2P over an area of 44 square kilometers at that project. It's comparably -- if you look at the acreage, we've got 77 square kilometers that we are working with, and we believe most, if not, all will be commercial and we'll begin to develop and progress forward.So obviously, there's a lot of information about these types of projects and other developments in the area. I think as the investors understand some of the metrics and the valuation of these really good CSG permits within the Walloons Fairway and particularly if you're in a sweet spot, I think they'll be better able to understand how significant this particular project will be to a company like Central, which, you need to remember, has had a market cap previously of $100 million, well, currently $135 million, how significant this asset is for this company at this point in time and moving forward.Right. How are we going to develop it? This is -- and I know there's a lot of questions on it. So I thought I'd throw something up. This is an indicative development program or schedule. It has not been through the joint venture process. So it's not sanctioned. This is our view of how we can lay it out. This is what we're shooting for. We will try and accelerate it wherever we can, and we believe that Incitec Pivot has the same objective, which is to get gas onto production as soon as possible.If you look at sort of the timing, obviously, we've got quite a bit of work in terms of field activity that we need to get stuck into and are getting stuck into now. Approvals are obviously a significant part. With Incitec Pivot as a partner and a major gas customer, we think that, certainly, this part of the equation, we should be able to fast track it somewhat. So we'll certainly be looking to do that.Commercial is another big area that we will be working on and in particular, power transportation, so how we get access to the existing pipeline network efficiently and gas sales and marketing. And obviously, we're currently out marketing to the East Coast, so we've got a very good understanding of what opportunities are there and what we think we can get. So we're ahead of the curve in terms of that activity.And not -- it's last but certainly not least, how we're going to pay for this. This is a big project for Central. We will be working on a capital funding plan. We do have a lot of options. Obviously, project finance, if we roll it into the senior debt facility at some point, could provide some very efficient debt if we manage and control gearing so that we're not overlevered. But it certainly can provide some of the funds. To the extent we need equity, we are looking and there are a number of other opportunities or alternatives to just an equity raise that we can look at. Some of those, for example, are presales for the gas. We know there's customers that are very interested in securing these gas supply agreements, and we have seen an ability to get some of that prepaid upfront, which would help, obviously, in the funding of the development.And we've done that in the past. We've done presales with Macquarie to help acquire Mereenie, and we've done a presale with Incitec Pivot for a similar purpose. So we do have experience in presales, and we are going to have, obviously, a look at that and see if that's an efficient way to deal with some of the equity component of this project. And there's also opportunities now that we have this 2C resource, and we can talk to industry players. There may be an opportunity to look at selling down some portion of it. We still want to maintain, obviously, a significant component, but that might be an opportunity.And ultimately, it comes down to the prices willing to be paid. If the industry is willing to pay a price significantly higher than what the equity market or shares are trading at and reflecting, then it's an efficient way to do it. Obviously, it depends on the price that you get for your asset and the share price that we're in. So we're going to have to weigh all of that up and come up with some innovative commercial -- or financial strategy. I'm comfortable we've been doing that consistently and successfully over the past 5 years, and we've got no doubt that we will come up with something that works, gets this project developed and does it in a way that's very efficient from a weighted average cost of capital.FID targeting early 2021. Obviously, we'll try to accelerate that to the extent we can. But that's a sort of a natural point in time where you think all the stuff can come together. We get into construction fairly early. We will be looking to fast track that. If you look at Project Atlas, they had a very successful ability to fast track their project, and they're cranking through that. We would look to try and do a similar sort of strategy of fast-tracking the development component. They interestingly started here. And so really, they're off and running and have a bit of a head start. We've got to do quite a bit of work to actually get this into a PL, get our 2P, get our approvals. So there is some work that we're going to have to do in the lead-up. But once we get to FID, I think we can accelerate the development and do it quickly in the way that's probably similar to what Project Atlas has been demonstrating.First gas on that basis would be in 2022. Obviously, you have a bit of a ramp-up on CSG, but we'd expect to be in plateau position by at least 2023. So that's a bit of a high-level snapshot. Again, it needs to go through joint venture discussions, and we are going to be trying to accelerate this plan forward to the extent we can because it is important. Once again, the cash flows, it has a significant impact on Central's financial performance and capabilities going forward.Right. Okay, delivering Project Range. Project Range is a big project. There's no question about it. The management team and the executives we have and the people below them are very, very experienced in delivering exactly what we're talking about for Project Range, and we have a deep experience in prior projects and deep experience here in Central and doing many of these exact same things that are the keys to success for delivering Project Range.So obviously, IPL relationship, that's key as a joint venture partner and a customer. I've been working with Incitec Pivot since 2005 when we started working at QGC way back then, so a long, strong relationship. I see that continuing and being very constructive for both parties.Project planning delivery. We just delivered our GAP project. That was successful. We've made it on time, beat the NGP on the opening. So that's been a successful example of project delivery in a very short space of time. We've got that capability, and we're going to roll and continue that into the Project Range effort.Access to infrastructure, we've demonstrated that we've got some very smart commercial and financial constructs to be able to gain access and optimize how we do that going forward, whether that's pipeline access or potentially shared infrastructure or other infrastructure that may be around. We've got certainly a strong capability to make that happen and drive value from it.Marketing and transport, obviously, we've got some real expertise in that. We're currently in the marketing process. It's something we've been doing and been successful at. So that's a tick.Low-cost operations for a company like CSG, we still like Central Petroleum, we are a low-cost operator. We're fit for purpose. We don't have some of the layers of expenses that big LNG proponents have. We can come in much more fit for purpose, much more agile. That's a value advantage for us that we're going to look to leverage on through Project Range.Project funding, as I mentioned, something we've been very successful at in this company. And I'm really excited to get stuck into that because I think there's some really smart ways to get this project over the line from a capital perspective without a lot of significant dilution and really a low cost of weighted average cost of capital, which obviously flows into the valuation of this project for Central.And stakeholder management, obviously key. It's something we're continually working on. We've had a track record of success. We know Queensland well. We're going to continue with that. And that is obviously a key focus and key factor in driving the outcome for Project Range.Interestingly, I did have a shareholder ask me, "Are you guys in a position to transition to CSG? Do you know anything about CSG?" And the executive team we have does have deep experience in CSG and in particular in Queensland. Personally, I started in CSG way before it was a proven commercial resource in the gas sector. I started out in 2002 advising small-cap CSG companies on how they can manage and access capital. That was way before anyone with any self-respect would have been diving into that sector of the market. I grew from there and actually consulted for a number of years to the CSG sector small cap before eventually joining QGC in 2005. Obviously, that was a growth phase for CSG. And QGC was really a pioneer in turning CSG into a known commodity that could be relied on for commercial production.We were taken out in 2008. I continued on with QGC after BG bought it for another 4 years, so -- before jumping to Central. So I've got a significant background personally in CSG growing CSG and delivering projects, making them successful. So the answer is, yes, we're very, very capable of delivering this project in Queensland with the CSG asset base.Okay. Moving on. I get to introduce Duncan Lockhart, who's going to talk first a little bit about the Dukas-1 well and then get into our exploration team, some of the work we've been doing and our near-term strategy for exploration. So Duncan, over to you. I can give you the hot seat for this next one.

D
Duncan Lockhart
General Manager of Exploration

Thanks very much again, and I'm grateful for the opportunity to actually speak to you face to face for a change. I'm going to give you an update, like Leon says, about where we're up to. We have Dukas because it's obviously a very hot topic at the moment, and then I'll be talking, like he said, about the upcoming exploration programs.So let's start with Dukas. There we go. Dukas, I'll give you -- I'd like to give you some context about what Dukas actually represents. Dukas is targeting, as we know, the sub-salt section of the Amadeus basin. And it is a multi-Tcf potential feature. It's a big, large regional basement high. We're chasing rocks of a Neoproterozoic age, which means they're between 1 billion and 500 million years old. The earth back then was a very, very, very different place. There were no land plants, and there's very few -- there was no multi-cellular organisms that were in any kind of organized way. And that means that the geology is very different. So a lot of our concepts of geology were based on younger rocks. And so that makes it a pure wildcat exploration.There is nothing like this play in Australia. It is very big. It's large. It's very similar in structural starts or the kind of features that we see in the Middle East, especially in Iraq with big gas fields like [ Qurna ]. So there are only 2 well penetrations prior to the drilling of Dukas that have gone into this particular Neoproterozoic section in the basin. And so therefore, we've been really dealing with a lot of unknowns.Whilst drilling Dukas, we got down to 3,700 meters, which was about 300 meters beyond where we thought the initial target would be. And then we approached some very, very, very high, extremely high formation pressures, to the point where we had to use a 16.5 pound per gallon mud to actually get the well under control, and that was effectively very close to a 10,000 psi limit that we had with blowout preventers at the surface. So as a result of that, it was impossible for us to drill any further given the capabilities of the rig and the equipment that we had.Now this pressure had actually been predicted but not of this magnitude. So it caught everybody basically by surprise of the degree of overpressure. However, the good thing about this is the fact that we have been able to get some mud gas samples, which are not -- they are not the best samples of -- that we can get, but they are sufficient for us to actually be able to tell us that we actually have a combination of hydrocarbon gases and inert gases that have been associated with this overpressure within the well. And so why is this important? Because it means that we've already answered one of the most important questions that we have, is there an effective charge system down at this level? And the answer is yes, we actually have now evidence of hydrocarbons that are being generated and have migrated into and around the Dukas structure. The other thing that we know is that given the fact that we've seen such high pressures, we also have a very effective seal that is -- exists over the top of the Dukas feature. So very good positive indications that we have a working petroleum system at the Dukas location, and this is quite exciting.Unfortunately, like I said, drilling is suspended, and we can't go any further at this point. But before we left, we undertook another suite of wireline logs. And more importantly, we actually took what we call the VSP or vertical seismic profile. And the idea of actually taking a vertical seismic profile is that we can get a better understanding of the seismic image. And the -- what you see behind me is an actual seismic section through the well, and it's heavily interpreted. But all this area through here is evaporites and salts, and we have a very attenuated seismic signal and we believe that this is our basement down here.We initially thought that this basement would be coming in at about 3,400, 3,500 meters. But now based on some work that we had done while we were drilling, we believe it could be at least another couple hundred meters before we actually get to that target section. The vertical seismic profile which we've gotten and currently is being processed and interpreted will help us to determine potentially how much further we have to go to get to the top of the target. So that's one of the great unknowns as well.So I'd just like to say that we've yet to get to the primary target. We're expecting it within the next few hundred meters. We've got some work -- we've got intensive work coming up with our joint venture partners with Santos. We've got a lot of data that we need to get through, a lot of work that we need to go through and [ contemplate ] over the results.We're expecting, like I say, to get to the top within the next few hundred meters. However, we're going to have to go off and get in a much larger rig. In fact, we'll need to get a blowout preventer at the surface which is probably capable at around 15,000 psi. And that means that we will need a high-pressure rig, a rig capable of dealing with higher pressures, which effectively means they need a much larger set of mud pumps as well to handle the volume and that weight of the mud that we also need to put down into the system.Those rigs aren't everywhere in Australia. So it is going to be a time period that we're going to have to go out and see what is available when these rigs are available. But prior to even doing that, we need to work out what we've actually got on our hands at the moment with the available data. We will -- we need to go back and actually have a look at the well, review the well design so that we can actually get to the target. And it's going to take a period of time before we're actually in the point that we can go back to drilling. But suffice to say, we need a new -- a bigger rig, and part of that journey will be trying to find this particular rig as well. Very positive signs.And also on that map that you can see there, there are also a lot of other very similar features to Dukas -- it's gone crazy now. There we go. So this is Dukas sitting here, and all these orange blobs that you see out here, all this is our acreage. These are other potential Dukas-type features, which are these big basement [ highs ] with potential Heavitree over them. And you can all see that these are really massive structures. And so they -- even just one of these features, if it works, will be transformational for the company along the lines of Central.Okay. So moving on to exploration. So what's happened at Central in the past 12 months? This is just a quick surmise of where we've been. So the Palm Valley-13 well was successfully drilled in-field. It was drilled horizontally. It was completed. It was tied in, and it's currently got -- flowing some sales gas out of that particular well. So that show that we can do this horizontal drilling.West Mereenie-26 was successfully drilled. It's a horizontal well within the lower Stairway Sandstone in the Mereenie field. It came in, we predicted, highly fractured. But unfortunately, it was also highly mineralized, which is something that we could not predict but we're working on that. We've got some other options that we're looking at for the Stairway formation within the West Mereenie field.We've currently drilled Dukas. We have suspended Dukas due to overpressure, but we've got exceptionally good signs that we've got a working petroleum system at Dukas, which is very exciting. We've successfully done the exploration campaign at Range. And we've brought on a few extra people, like myself, to enhance the capabilities of the company when it goes forward into exploration. So it's been quite a busy 12 months and quite a successful 12 months actually in the exploration side for Central, and we're aiming to go forward and a stronger capacity to do similar work.So in the last 6 months since I've been here, the first thing that we basically brought on -- that are brought on board was to have a look in [ the data ]. I went in and had a look and to see exactly what concepts, prospects, leads that this company actually had and have put them into a very structured way of being able to analyze that particular data. And this is effectively just best practice exploration management, portfolio management, which is practiced by many companies all around the world. You need to understand what you've got so that you can understand the risk and reward of your actual -- of your company.By doing that, it's helped us analyze where we're at, and we've been able to start to look at developing short-term exploration strategies as a result of that, not just that, but also understand what needs to be done in the future to progress the exploration as we go forward to maximize our impact. We introduced a new set of rigorous analysis when it comes down to the portfolio analysis. We're also introducing a new kind of gated approach to the way that we approach reviewing our concepts as they go forward from concepts through to drillable prospects. So we've got full reviews that will be gated reviews as to how we progress or whether we reject or move forward with particular opportunities. And we -- by doing all of this, we've been able to kind of come up with a very good look and see what we've actually got with respect to Central.From that, we've also designed a near-term exploration plan. We'll announce the details of it shortly. But what we're looking for with that near-term exploration plan was something that was -- would enable us to do some fieldwork activity to get out there, be active again. This basin has suffered from a lot of inactivity over the last 30 years of exploration. It's been very patchy when it's come down to exploration with only 3 periods of exploration: 1 in the '60s, 1 in the '80s and just 1 recently. So we need to start reinvigorating that exploration.So -- but because the geology is so complex and it's not very well understood, whilst we're trying to undertake this near-term exploration program, we're also going to be initiating a play-based exploration approach which is, once again, is a standard practice around the world and developed by companies like Shell and Exxon around the world. This play-based exploration approach helps you to understand the entire geology of the basin in a very holistic sense.So you look at and understand the plays that you already have in existence, and then you also start looking for other plays that you don't realize that you do have at the moment and potentially progress those as well. But by understanding the play-based method, which looks at the basin, goes in the play, goes in the prospect, you can actually then start to work out where is the best place to start investing your money. So we have quite a high-risk, high-reward portfolio in a lot of respects. We have some things that are lower risk with a better reward. Those are the near-term opportunities that we should be progressing. But we need to understand the low -- the high-risk, high-reward type features so that we can start to progress those into a point where we can actually address them with the drill bit. But to do this, we need to understand which ones of those particular prospects have the most impact when it comes down to exploration.So we don't have enough money to go and drill out the whole portfolio, and that wouldn't be a wise thing to do. So the whole idea of the play-based exploration is to choose the most appropriate targets that will provide the biggest bang for the buck that will help derisk other various elements within the portfolio.So this is just a quick snapshot of what a part of the Central portfolio looks like at the moment. And so just let me explain this. This is a funnel of opportunities, which is a standard way of addressing portfolios within companies. You start off with the open end of the funnel where you basically have your concepts, and as you go down to the narrow end of the funnel, you end up going into your approved prospects. And that's an intricate process. So it always will work -- Sorry, I'm pressing the wrong button. So down this end of the scale and currently, this funnel is just basically broken up on chance to success at this point. And to refine this will be chance to success of actually having a discovery, and then we'll also be putting on top of this the maturity of the prospect as to whether or not it's gone through our staged gates.The size of the bubble's indicative based over here, and this is millions of barrels of oil equivalent because we're comparing gas to oil opportunities, okay? So we've got a number of oil opportunities that we've seen in our portfolio as well.So as you can see, these massive bumps out here, and these are pre-salt plays and these are -- any one of these is a transformational opportunity. One success at this and you'll be looking at underpinning another pipeline out of the basin and into the East Coast gas market. These are truly game-changing. These are world-class-type features if they come off. But having said that, they're high risk at the moment. So we need to do a lot more of this play-based work to actually derisk these and move them up the funnel to the point where we start to feel that they have been derisked sufficiently enough for us to actually invest in the drilling.So the other thing that we've had come up in this review, you can see nice, big, green bubbles sitting in the middle there. That's a really nice oil lead that we've got sitting out here now which we call [ Membalamba ]. That's a significant opportunity that will be -- will hopefully be progressing and -- look at that, I've been pressing all the wrong buttons. And we're back. I'm a master of this. There we go.Okay. So this is a nice, big oil opportunity that sits out here. We -- currently, we're looking at potentially around 31 million barrels of oil as a main recoverable resource, but it's also -- it's sitting in about 30% chance to success. So this is something that by going through the portfolio, we've actually been able to identify as a really good candidate for something that we can access in the near term.So our near-term program that we've put together has covered -- We had a number of criteria. First of all, the acreage is 100% Central. So therefore, we don't have any joint venture issues that we have to go through. We just have to go through getting the approvals of our joint venture partners and make sure that we're aligned with what we want to do. So that's a good tick.There are no regulatory barriers. All the opportunities that we've identified to date, all sit in areas where they're not impacted by no-go zones. They're not under application. They're actually awarded tenure and within licenses. They also don't require any additional seismic to actually progress these things, so there's no additional exploration expense to actually bring these things up to derisk them.They are proven plays. So we're not going after like the big pre-salt-type plays here at the moment because these ones are actually proven, so we know that they work. The other thing about this near field -- they're near-field, either very close to the existing fields or they're actually within the fields, and we're looking at potentially deeper targets, things within the Palm Valley field, potentially Dingo around Orange. So they also have good access to facilities. So if we do have a success, we can monetize these particular opportunities quite quickly because there would be minimal development risk with respect to tying wells into existing infrastructure or small pipeline builds.So something like the Membalamba lead, which is a large oil lead, it's only 8 kilometers from Surprise. If that came off, then there are all sorts of commercial options that could come in with that. So it would also enable a lot more potential oil exploration around the Surprise area, which is currently stranded.But while we're actually doing all this near-field work, we need to be progressing the play-based work, which is the next 3- to 5-year-type opportunities, which are these big bubbles that you see sitting out in the concept stage and we need to advance them up to the funnel. Now those -- a lot of those will need extra seismic. They'll need a lot more extra work. We've got to do a lot of in-house work. We've got to do some basin modeling, et cetera. But they will require seismic.From the concept of actually deciding that you will shoot seismic when we start on the planning phase to the point where we actually start to drill on that seismic is generally, in Australia, a 2-year turnaround time. So that's why we need to be starting to look at getting this stuff worked out now, getting the play-based work done, which hopefully we'll be getting finished by the end of first quarter next year. So then we'll have -- and that, we will be able to work out where we want to shoot seismic and have a better understanding of where we want to invest our money into these plays.And that should be then coming off the back of what we've got as our near-term exploration program. And so effectively, the conveyor belt will keep being fed, but that play-based work needs to be done. It hasn't been done in the -- it hasn't been done in Central before. The data is there, the information is there, but it's all about trying to put it into a structured format so that you can actually make informed decisions. That's it.

L
Leon Goss Devaney

All right. Okay. So this is really the ramp-up investment opportunity, but we think we're a compelling investment. We've got positive cash flow. We're fast-growing oil and gas producer. We've got near-field reserve growth potential with an existing operating asset base, but we do have extensive underexplored portfolio and proven basins, which Duncan's talked about, which has some real significant upside for this company that is incredibly exciting. We're connected to the East Coast, which just happened 8 months ago, so that's obviously transformational for the business. We've had a very good and consistent run of positive momentum. We're going to look to continue that into the future. And we do have a very strong management team. So I've put a lot of effort into making sure we have the best people driving the different parts of the business for a successful outcome both in operations and exploration, and they're on deck and operating on all cylinders as of this month with our recent start of the CFO. Period of positive momentum. So as you can see, this is really going back to some of the things we've achieved. The management team has delivered the Gas Project, which was no simple task. That was a significant project in a very short period of time. We've gotten now positive indicators at Dukas-1, which Duncan's talked to, booking 135 of high-quality 2C resources in the heart of the CSG fairway in the East Coast gas market, incredibly attractive opportunity for us and we think one that would be significantly valuable for this company forward. And a renewed focus on growth and exploration. So as Duncan said, we are coming out with a near-term focus, things that we can tackle in the next year or 2. These are more drillable prospects. They will have a significant impact on the company. But we're also in the background driving this play-based analysis, which helps us out with the medium-term strategy and dealing with permit commitments and other joint venture and other decisions that we have to make. Proven management team, I've kind of touched on a lot of these things. But essentially, we're as structured, very prepared to grow this company based on our existing assets and well equipped to take on and deliver Project Range and create -- and maximize the value of that project for Central. So one of the things I would highlight, obviously, we've got a renewed emphasis on exploration. All of this stuff we've been demonstrating for quite some time, but this is something that's been happening under the surface. It hasn't been visible. The real airtime has been given to Dukas-1 and Project Range, but Duncan and his team have been working incredibly hard over a complex basin, 5 working hydrocarbon systems, generating that analysis and that technical understanding to be able to move that forward. And one of the things that we do want to flag is we do have a number of relationships that are critical. Some of them are complex. They range from banks and joint venture partners to customers, other stakeholders. That's something we've been doing successfully at Central in the past and obviously something that we'd expect and are capable of continuing and ensuring that, that stakeholder engagement is solid and positive. And that, I apologize, is the team. I didn't mean to shock anybody, so we'll skip through that. But again, I'd encourage you to take a look at the background of everybody on the executive team. Top class, these guys are incredibly good at what they do and are perfectly suited for a company like Central to take it forward into the next phase of growth and capitalize on the opportunities we currently have. And that's the end of the webinar. So I think that takes us to Q&A.

U
Unknown Executive

What we've got, Duncan, here is a couple of technical questions, just rummaging now. One is how much do you think Dukas' salt pull-up? Salt is much faster than sediment, so what a TWT seismic display doesn't, the mere presence of salt potentially form an artificial structure.

D
Duncan Lockhart
General Manager of Exploration

In this case, no because we had prognosed -- better prognosed target which is actually at 3,400 meters, we're at 3,700 meters, and we haven't got there yet. We actually now have some velocity constraint from the initial -- from a set of wireline logs that was actually running intermediate casing string. And hence, the reason that we're also undertaking the VSP so that we can actually get a much better idea of the real velocities within the wellbore itself and actually see if we can see ahead of the drill bit because we've actually undertaken a walkaway VSP. So it's not just at the wellbore itself.

U
Unknown Executive

An additional question from the same viewers. Is the porosity could be primary fractures and secondary fractures?

D
Duncan Lockhart
General Manager of Exploration

Yes. We honestly believe that most of the porosity down here will be fracture porosity, related to fracture. So the Heavitree Quartzite, which is the primary target, is a quartzite. It's a Neoproterozoic rock that's been -- it's about 1 billion years old. Very little primary for us. It will probably be preserved. There may be some. However, if I -- just recently in the news, if you look at what Strike has been doing over in the Perth Basin at West Erregulla, they're down approaching 5,000 meters and have retained porosity. However, in this basin, fractures provide the primary source of porosity and permeability.

U
Unknown Executive

Okay. Also did CTP have personnel observing the Dukas-1 drilling? If not, why not? And will you be having CTP personnel at the next drilling?

D
Duncan Lockhart
General Manager of Exploration

Santos are the operator of this particular well, and it's not common practice to actually have someone from the nonoperator sitting at the well site the entire time. The well site geologist is contracted to Santos, and the only real Santos personnel that would have been out there would have actually been probably the company man. So it's not common practice for a partner to actually have someone sitting at the well site.

U
Unknown Executive

Someone's asking here, they believe that we've discovered significant helium reserves. What are happening to these?

D
Duncan Lockhart
General Manager of Exploration

At this point, we haven't discovered significant helium reserves because the IsoTube analysis that we've got is only derived from the mud gas. And the -- because of mud gas, it tends to be heavily contaminated with air, so we've had to make corrections for air contamination. And at this point, we know that we've got a combination of hydrocarbons, nitrogen, a little bit of CO2 and there is some helium and there is also some hydrogen. But at this particular point, we can't say that we've got a substantial discovery of helium at this location.

U
Unknown Executive

What is the date by which Santos need to redrill Dukas to meet the terms that they're earning?

L
Leon Goss Devaney

I'll talk to that one. We would say there are more technical things going for Dukas.

U
Unknown Executive

No. Not on Dukas.

L
Leon Goss Devaney

Okay. Good. All Right. So I knew that question was going to come up, and I probably won't give the answer everyone is hoping to hear. It is not a black-and-white scenario where there's a crystallization of the farm-out. We are working through that process now. And we'd expect as part of the forward plan in the next couple of months to have worked through both the farm and trigger, and if that has occurred, in which case, they would earn the 70%. And the other factor that we're going to be working through, and it's our expectation, is that if we -- if the joint venture decides to come back and complete, which we think it probably will, that Santos would be carrying those costs. Now having said that, we need to work through with Santos all of those issues and have that discussion. The farm-out agreement in 2012 really did not contemplate a scenario where you drilled 3,700 meters and had to suspend the rig just short of the target formation. So it is in black and white. We're going to be working through that over the next couple of months. I think given the positive indicators, my expectation is that, at some point, they will have a 70% interest in the permit. I'd be surprised if that wasn't the ultimate outcome because I think this well will be completed. I think the forward plan from our perspective, unless anything really negative comes up from some of the VSP and other testings that we've done since stopping the drilling, unless that shows up, for some reason, very negative, which isn't our expectation, I think there will be alignment at the joint venture level to come back and continue and finish Dukas. I will say that Santos has been a fantastic joint venture partner. I see very little indication that there will be any misalignment as we go through the forward planning process between our technical people and theirs. The Santos we're dealing with today is very confident. They are not in the business of messing around with junior partners from our experience. And much less, we don't think they're going to be playing around with the East Coast gas market. I think they're incentivized to get this thing -- get a result if it makes sense following all these tests. And I'd be very, very surprised if it was a scenario where we thought it was worth continuing and they didn't because I think we will have alignment. And to date, I think we've had a fairly close alignment in terms of their decisions as operator. So the joint venture is very strong. We're working through all these things. I think in the next couple of months, we should have a forward plan that covers and provides more a complete answer to that question, but that's where we're at.

U
Unknown Executive

I've got a question for you also in respect to our overall exploration acreage. How is Central managing the large exploration expenditure commitments on this massive acreage that we have.

L
Leon Goss Devaney

Yes. So there's a number of things that we do look at. Obviously, the Dukas result was a critical one, and we did do some extensions on some of the permit requirements in the context that we thought we'd have a result from Dukas. That obviously drives what you do and where you do it. Obviously, we're not in that position right now, so we will be going through. And as part of this portfolio review that it's doing, we will make a determination on what things are things we want to invest in and continue or if there's a technical reason why we would want to defer any of it. But really, we are having a renewed focus on progressing exploration. We want to make sure that the activities that we do on the permits are actually -- they really get the bang for the buck and are targeting the right things that we want to do. The critical work that Duncan has started since joining earlier this year is fundamental for us to make those correct decisions. So that will all come into play.

U
Unknown Executive

Okay. The others I can ask you at the end of the presentation.

U
Unknown Executive

All right. Okay. Are there any other Dukas targets on the near horizon?

L
Leon Goss Devaney

Duncan, you want to take that? Come sit over here so you can get in the picture.

D
Duncan Lockhart
General Manager of Exploration

There are a whole range of potential Dukas salt targets in the basin at the moment, but they range in so like very immature when it comes to being able to be drilled just simply because there's a lack of data that exists at the moment. Most of the data that's identified these potential Dukas-type look-alikes has been based on the gravity -- regional gravity maps, but there is also some regional seismic lines. But before these things become anywhere near drillable -- in a drillable status, that will need to have quite a significant investment in seismic over the -- but yes, there's quite a few of them all through the basin. So getting to prove them is a very exciting thing. Even if Dukas had been a dry well, it's still wouldn't have killed the play because it's such a large basin and it's so complex and there are so many different elements to the play that exist across the basin and we don't understand because we just don't have the data to actually know what we're dealing with. So it's very exciting. Like I say, this is a potentially massive transformational play. There's nothing like it in Australia. These are true giant opportunities that exist in Australia.

U
Unknown Executive

Going back to Range. This is from the Miles & District Chamber of Commerce. Does Central have a specific strategy, targets and KPIs around supporting local business in development of the Range project?

L
Leon Goss Devaney

Yes, it's certainly something Central has been doing in its operations in the NT and we've talked about our third policy and really increasing the local employment and employment with traditional owners. That's something that we're looking to carry over to this project. Obviously, we've just been made aware of the 2C resources that Project Range has. We need to work with Incitec Pivot to start that process of making decisions such as this and outlining how we're going to approach it not just from a project perspective but also from a stakeholder. My expectation is that our approach, which has been successful in NT, will continue to be successful in engaging and benefiting the communities that we work around.

U
Unknown Executive

Sure. In respect of the 2C reserves, what percentage of these do you anticipate being converted to 2P?

L
Leon Goss Devaney

Yes, that's a question I had a feeling would pop up. It's something that's very difficult for us to specify with a number. We're talking about a high degree of confidence because it is not reliant on coal properties and not reliant on some application of a technology to make it commercial. Those tend to be big X factors that tend to be unknown and harder to manage. The contingencies we have within the 2C to convert it to 2P, as we've highlighted before, are really FID-related activities that tend to be largely within control of the company or certainly more manageable control of the company going forward. There are things that we've been successful in the past. So my expectation is, and what we've been really talking about, is the bulk of those 2Cs. It's very difficult for us to put a number on it specifically, but the expectation is that, that 2 resource, and this is why we're running everything in parallel with a pilot project, our expectation is that the bulk majority of these are going to be converted to 2P and ultimately recoverable.

U
Unknown Executive

Right. Do we have an expected ballpark CapEx required to develop a range of what it would cost Central's 50% share of that would be?

L
Leon Goss Devaney

Yes, it's -- we don't. We haven't gone through that process. Again, we've just gotten these 2C resources. We've got a concept of what that project might look like. In terms of CapEx, you can certainly look at the expenditure that Atlas is doing for their reserve base and draw some reasonable comparisons because that is a fairly similar set of activities that we'll be doing for CSG in that area. So that's probably a point of analysis that can be done. If you look at the size of the project in terms of production capacity, if you look at the bulk of 2C converting over to 2P, my expectation and sort of just a rule of thumb on where a plateau might be could be in the order of 25 to 30 TJs a day our share, so that really puts it up in certainly a fairly significant project and revenue stream for us.

U
Unknown Executive

Okay. I've got some general and corporate-related queries here. Do you see dividends being paid in the near future?

L
Leon Goss Devaney

Yes. Look, the dividend question has been popping up quite regularly. If you flash back to corporate finance 101, you pay dividends when you really don't have an application for those funds internally that provides a better investment or outcome for shareholders. Given what we're seeing on the exploration, given the activities that we've got, in particular, funding Project Range and progressing our near-term activities and moving forward, some of these really company changing or transformational medium-term concepts into drillable prospects, I think we've got plenty of places that we can apply capital at the moment that really we'd expect to have a lot of bang for the buck. If it is a situation where we don't see value in reinvesting cash flow into our activities, then I think dividends are obviously the logical and appropriate thing to do. But at this point, there are no specific plans to pay a dividend at this point in time. That's not to say down the road that doesn't change. But certainly, we can't sit here and say that's an expectation in the very near term.

U
Unknown Executive

What is likely to happen with Macquarie options?

L
Leon Goss Devaney

It's a good question on what the share price is today. I think they expire on Saturday. I think it's hard to predict what Macquarie will do. Obviously, their strike prices, it's in the mid-$0.19 once you take into account the capital restructuring we had with the rights issue back in 2017. So they're near the money last time I looked. I don't know, we're going to wait and see. Macquarie has been a fantastic joint venture partner, investor and banker, so we'd be happy to have them increase their position on the equity front and inject somewhere in the order of $6 million into the company. That's not a bad outcome. As I mentioned, we are looking to refi, so in terms of the exposure we have to that relationship, that's one area that we'd anticipate potentially not being there in the near term. But really, I don't know if they're going to do. That's an investment decision they need to make, and we'll find out fairly soon.

U
Unknown Executive

What is being done to attract new large investors in Central?

L
Leon Goss Devaney

Yes. So we -- obviously, we have intended to be going on a very significant roadshow. The challenge was that is we didn't want to do a roadshow while Dukas was just about to announce its results and we had Project Range coming as well. And so what we're essentially doing is waiting to get Dukas results, and then we could do a very good roadshow discussing the impacts of those. Obviously, Dukas and the drilling program, in my assessment, what we have in our forward plan in a couple of months, so I don't see a rig being able come back until next year. So we are going to go out -- and particularly given we've got this news flow from Project Range, we are undertaking a very substantial roadshow next week in the capital cities. And then we've got the following week a series of presentations to shareholders both in Perth and other capital cities. So we are -- the next couple of weeks are going to be very, very intensive engagement with investors both existing, but importantly, new investors to communicate the story, communicate the opportunity for investment that this company represents and that will be a focus at this point in time going forward. And I think we've got a great story. So it's -- I've been on a lot of roadshows in this company. This is a particular roadshow where we do not have to press hard to sell it. I mean we need to make and communicate what we've got, but we've got fundamental and very attractive investment opportunity case for new investors. And we're going to communicate that and certainly try and drum up as much new investment as we can.

U
Unknown Executive

Okay. Today's outside report says small explorers and producers are in the sites as takeover targets. Does Central fall into this category?

L
Leon Goss Devaney

Yes. I think Central is always at risk. We're a small-cap junior with a significant exploration portfolio. I think given the success at Project Range, that hasn't gone away and it's something we do keep an eye on. Project Range has a substantial volume. If you start looking at the -- just the gas sales alone coming out of that potentially, it is a significant number relative to our current market cap. Our job is to make sure that investors are fully informed. In particular, if you look at the risk of 2C conversion to 2P, that's something industry insiders would likely understand. Shareholders might not understand it because there are some 2Cs that are very difficult to convert. These, I don't think, are in that category. I think they're on the other end of the spectrum. And so that valuation element needs to be, I think, understood by all shareholders. And we need to get that message out and that's something we're going to be focused on starting with this webinar, but going forward over the next few weeks in particular.

U
Unknown Executive

The recent broker analysis that we indicated on our website, they gave a share price of, I think, where Central should be. What are your thoughts regarding the diversions from the current price?

L
Leon Goss Devaney

The diversions from the current price.

U
Unknown Executive

Yes, the current price now.

L
Leon Goss Devaney

The gap, you mean?

U
Unknown Executive

Yes, the gap.

L
Leon Goss Devaney

Yes. We don't comment on broker analysis. I would flag that one of the critical things in terms of what brokers are going to place as a target valuation for the company is going to be around the conversion of 2C to 2P. If you apply a risk factor that's on one end of the spectrum where you're looking at substantial maybe coal property or application and technology risk, you might get a conversion factor or risk adjustment of one thing. We believe we're on another end of the spectrum where it has got a much higher degree of confidence. Where you put that or your assumption for that risk adjustment has an enormous impact on what your views might be for a target share price for Central and I think that's certainly an element in brokerage coverage going forward for this company.

U
Unknown Executive

In terms of TJs a day, what are the current daily average gas sales?

L
Leon Goss Devaney

Yes. So we got that one slide. And if you look at the asset slide, I think it was Slide #2 or 3, we did put our equity production from our 3 fields. That excludes overlift, and it does exclude gas purchases but sold. So that really looks at what our equity production has been in the last quarter. I think it's a good indication of what we're trying to do in terms of equity sales moving forward and trying to maintain that type of plateau. So that's probably the best I can answer in terms of that particular question.

U
Unknown Executive

That's the bulk of the questions I've got.

L
Leon Goss Devaney

Okay. Looking at the audience because I know there's a few notepads with a lot of writing on it. So I'm assuming there's some questions buried in there, maybe not. Yes?

U
Unknown Analyst

Are you familiar with Nexus Energy's seismic scope business at all?

D
Duncan Lockhart
General Manager of Exploration

Nexus? Yes. Do you know?

U
Unknown Analyst

They have a service and they run over the seismic that other people have already done and they pick out the spots where they advise people to get in that spot. I don't know whether that's relevant. I'm just wondering whether that has any relevance to this -- the 2P situation.

D
Duncan Lockhart
General Manager of Exploration

Probably not at this point, but that's something to bear in mind. But yes, we'll have a look at it.

L
Leon Goss Devaney

Yes. It's like Santos as operator in some of our permits, they're extremely capable of that aspect of analysis and do have that expertise available to them. This is an incredibly difficult seismic program to interpret, given that we're dealing with a sub-salt play. And there has been an enormous amount of time trying to interpret that and understand what that means prior to the drilling. We'll get some more information through this VSP testing, but we're certainly comfortable and aligned with the expertise that Santos brings to the table in analyzing this stuff.

D
Duncan Lockhart
General Manager of Exploration

Yes. Yes. And in-house as well, we've got some good guys that know what they're talking about as well. So I'm fairly comfortable that we can have a look at the seismic data, come out with the answers in -- not in consultation, but along with Santos as well. Like Leon says, there are some challenging seismic areas in this part of the world because of the terrain and the salt -- the ground conditions. But also trying to image through salts like this is quite difficult, but there are a bunch of other techniques that can be applied, PSDM and a few other bits and pieces. But when we go forward with new seismic survey design, there will be a lot of modeling that goes into it before -- prior to it coming out with the actual acquisition parameters. So yes, there's a lot of work still to be done.

U
Unknown Analyst

Leon, do you get broker [ coverage ] to do further work on?

L
Leon Goss Devaney

Yes. I think we'll probably have them update the coverage they've had as material news flow comes through. So we certainly see that continuing. We are looking at getting additional coverage as well. So ultimately, we'd be, hopefully in the near term, having 3 sources of coverage. And if you cast your mind back to a year ago, we didn't have any and it was -- that prospect was -- really seemed quite far away. So I think we've made a lot of stride in the brokerage coverage space. And hopefully, that provides another avenue for shareholders to take a look at Central Petroleum and trying to understand the value proposition that we provide.

U
Unknown Analyst

I just have other questions, but we've talked so much, so I can't remember.

L
Leon Goss Devaney

That was our strategy all along. All right. Well, if that's everything, it sounds like it is...

U
Unknown Executive

Yes.

L
Leon Goss Devaney

I'll call this webinar to an end. And in the future, webinars that we do have, again, we're trying to do them quarterly, but I will be trying to bring forward somebody from the executive management team to introduce them to shareholders but also allow them to talk a little bit about the key things that they're working on and some of the detail behind it. I think that's important to do. So that'll be an ongoing thing that I'm looking to incorporate into the webinars going forward. So with that said, I appreciate everyone's attention and appreciate your support as shareholders. Thank you.

D
Duncan Lockhart
General Manager of Exploration

Thank you.

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